Boko Haram recently announced the appointment of a new leader. This development has exposed certain divisions within the Nigerian jihadist organization and that could either be really bad or really good for Nigeria.

The newly appointed leader, Abu Musab al-Barnawi, who was former spokesperson and the head of armoury for the group, is said to be the son of the group’s founder, Mohammed Yusuf. Following his appointment were rumours of a split within the group. An insider told CNN that Barnawi left the groups abode in Sambisa forest after a fall out between him and Abubakar Shekau, the groups long acknowledged leader, three months ago. A 10 minute long audio recording that surfaced on social media after the new appointment has confirmed the rumours to be true. In the recording, a person claiming to be Shekau rejected Barnawi’s appointment, and accused the 25 year old of staging a coup to topple him. As reported, the split between these two appears to be over certain ideologies and beliefs such as the name of the group, the groups’ modus operandi over the years, and Shekau’s judgement, which a source described as “erratic and disorganized.”

To prove even further that the group is indeed divided, Barnawi released an hour long audio recording in Hausa, accusing Shekau of corrupt practices and of killing Muslims. “There are many verses that prohibits the killing of Muslims, that is why we left Shekau … We also disagree with him on how he kills people and steal their properties,” Barnawi said in the recording. He also stated that Shekau interprets the Quran wrongly, and as he wishes, all of which they (the fall out group) do not agree with.

Currently, the split between Boko Haram’s longstanding leader Shekau and the newly appointed Barnawi could mean two things for Nigeria, where the group is based.

Things could get really good in Nigeria…
United, they stand. Divided, they fall
According to reports by CNN, some Western intelligence sources close to negotiations have said the defection of power and the erosion of support leaves Shekau more exposed and could possibly lead to a breakthrough in the search for the abducted girls.

But more than that, the split may signal the end of a seven year reign of terror in Nigeria. As observed from Barnawi’s recording, if the ongoing tension within the group is anything to go by, it won’t be long before these men turn on each other and wage war amongst themselves in a bid to knock the other out of existence. “Don’t think we are little, we are the commanders of Khalifa (Al- Bagdadi). Touch us, and they will touch you,” Barnawi’s men said to Shekau.

And if they do not fight to the death, a group already weakened by discord is likely to become more susceptible to the attacks by the Nigerian military. Rabe Abubakar, a spokesman for the Nigerian military is of the opinion that the recent development(s) is of no relevance. “We are just focused on clearing the remnants of the insurgents that are scattered around,” he told Reuters, adding that the division and power tussle were “the antics of a fading group.”

But they could also get worse…
On the other hand, this division might only exacerbate the country’s current security issues. The split in the Jihadist organization means more factions, and more factions could equal more attacks. Although fervid interceptions by the Nigerian military have weakened the group’s activity, they have not been able to completely defeat Boko Haram. Where the country had one group of insurgents to deal with, we now have two.

As opposed to random attacks orchestrated by Shekau which sees both Muslims and Christians killed, Barnawi has out rightly stated that his group is will target Christians, and everyone that attempts to stop their mission of creating an Islamic state. “Under the Shekau reasoning, it is permissible to kill IDPs in camps. Such action is not sanctioned by the IS-approved faction.” a security analyst in northern Nigeria told Reuters.

Right now, it appears the Nigerian military have their work cut out for them; to effectively tackle “the new Boko Haram” and the splinter group, there is a need to restrategize. Fighting both groups with the same old tactics probably wont do.