No one can, for now, actually predict what may happen in the forthcoming Governorship Election under a plethora of wit and imagination until the coast is clear. There is a myriad of determinants that will shape the outcome of the election. These determinants include, but not limited to, choice of Deputy Governorship Candidates of all the parties; ability to close ranks in each of the polarized political parties; ability of each political party to address the fundamental problems facing the state during campaign; ethnicity; financial capacity of the political parties and past records.
(1). Choice of Deputy Governorship Candidates: Area from where Deputy Governorship Candidates hail will influence the election. For instance, Oke of AD is from the Southern Senatorial District, if he picks Segun Abraham as his running mate, votes may swing in their favour. This is because, Oke will have block votes in the South and then garner more votes from the North and the Centre, comprising Akure South, Akure North, Ondo East, Ondo West, Idanre and Ifedore, which is believed to be sophisticated and is therefore independent. Majority of the votes are from Akure South, considered as a melting pot of various ethnic groups in the State. PDP candidate is from the Centre (Akure) and if he picks his running mate from Owo (home town of Aketi), that may weaken the chances of APC to win the election and if Aketi picks his running mate from Ilaje, it may also deflate the political base of Oke.
(2). Fractionalization/Factionalization: As it is now, it seems that all the major political parties are factionalized and fractionalized . Ability to close ranks and work as a team may swing votes. The more a party effectively does this, the brighter its chances. As it is, Aketi is irredeemably deficient in this regard as he has not shown either dexterity in human management or interest in bringing together all aggrieved groups as he (Aketi) and his immediate supporters are still basking in the euphoria of highly controversial primary victory
(3). Ability to address fundamental problems during campaign is also a major determinants. Such issues include: education, health and employment generation. As at moment, the PDP under Governor Mimiko is rated very high on health (even the opposition political parties gave it to him on this) and was rated above average on Education. Voters may want to consider continuity in these regards. So, political parties need to emphasize on these three fundamental areas while highlighting clear and unambiguous strategies for achieving them.
(4). Money Politics: Financial inducement will play a major role in Ondo State election. This is attributable to two factors: poverty and bad/poor governance (because voters believe that elected politicians behave irresponsibly after being voted into power and whatever they are able to get from them before and during election is their own gain).
(5). Ondo State is a product of ethnic pluralism and as such ethnicity will play a major role in the coming election. A candidate that comes from an area with high population may have advantage, using such preponderant population. In this regard, two candidates stand a chance. They are: Eyitayo Jegede and Olusola Oke. In the case of Oke, he is advantaged to get major chunk of his votes from the Southern Senatorial District, which has been noted to vote in one direction.
(6). Personality Traits: Ondo State places a lot of premium on merit and education. Out of the three candidates, Oke seems to be most highly cerebral, followed by Eyitayo Jegede. Merit and competence will therefore play a major role. This is where Jegede may have a serious challenge. This is not that he is not brilliant and articulate but because he relies on Akure and its environs to get the chunk of his votes. Majority of voters resident in these areas are educated and sophisticated and may therefore consider competence and merit in the election. Secondly, as I said earlier, Akure is peopled by the conglomeration of other ethnic groups in the State and outside the state, with neutral and independent minds, which may swing votes
If you insist on my prediction, the election is between Olusola Oke of AD and Eyitayo jegede of PDP

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