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In the heat of the crisis rocking the Nigerian Governors Forum when Goodluck Jonathan’s government was desperate to control everything controllable in the run up to the 2015 election, Segun Mimiko as governor of Ondo State orchestrated the victory of one candidate over the other under the mathematical formulation of declaring 16 votes as a majority over 19 votes. Of course, the episode contributed not only to the demise of the Governors Forum itself, but also Goodluck Jonathan’s credibility as a supposed disinterested bystander.

Now, again in Ondo State, this time under the auspices of the ruling APC party, the same mathematical formula was recently put in operation during the party’s primary to produce its candidate for the governorship election where the ruling party’s candidate was formally endorsed by the party’s National Working Committee with a vote of five as the majority against six as the minority. It now appears as if two contestants, among others, emerging from the same mathematical source, will slug it out with others for the job. It will be nice to see the demise of this latest version, just as the earlier mathematical manipulation by Segun Mimiko.

What is more pernicious in this Ondo elite political culture is the fact that the Yoruba dramatis personae were and are aware of the Kogi situation where an attempt to bring the Yoruba in Kogi into mainstream Yorubaland politics was frustrated by the same forces that perpetrated the Ondo mathematical fraud. It is on record that the Yoruba in Kogi and Kwara States had been longing to be part of the geo-political considerations of the rest of Yorubaland since the pre-independence era when the task was taken up by the Egbe Omo Oduduwa and subsequently by the Action Group, and Movement for Reformation of Nigeria under the general secretaryship of Chief C.O. Adebayo. All of these efforts were, however, frustrated by the same forces now working to foist itself on us in Ondo State. In more recent times, Mohammed Lawal, as the Kwara Governor, fought the battle of his life in order to bring this Kwara/Kogi quest to fruition, again frustrated by the same forces.

The excuse proffered by these collaborators in Kogi would be that the point man in Kogi was a candidate supported by Asiwaju Tinubu whose aim is to “spread his empire” without any consideration for the fact that, within Yoruba Nation, a Tinubu would be easier to correct and/or challenge even if he spreads “his empire” throughout the length and breadth of the land rather than losing part of the land to forces that were historically antagonistic to the land. These collaborators cannot claim ignorance of the Kogi shenanigans, yet they went ahead to offer their services to them all in a bid to create their own political anti-Tinubu front.

Furthermore, the view that the Yoruba component of the APC alliance miscalculated and had its eyes closed in bringing Buhari to power considering the age-long Fulani hegemonic aspirations is at best simplistic though based on historical antecedents. In 2011, a similar attempt broke down because of the insistence by the Yoruba component to stand its ground on certain matters, so the charge about their eyes now being closed cannot stick, given the fact that the same persons are involved this time around.

Efforts at addressing the Yoruba-Fulani conflict had centered on “warnings” about the historic Fulani attempt at taking over Yorubaland where every political relationship with the Fulani is expected to be predicated on the expectation of Fulani infidelity to any agreed position based on Fulani hegemonic aspirations which any serious Yoruba is aware of, thus making a mountain of it is a non-issue.

The question to ask is whether the Fulani, all by themselves are able to pull off their hegemony or employ the services of Yoruba collaborators, knowing full well that politics, especially electoral politics, demand some form of alliance. As long as the Yoruba want to be relevant in Nigerian politics, profitable alliances must be pursued, just as it will always be necessary for the Fulani to seek alliances any time they seek power through elections. Yet, an alliance, by itself, does not demand the existence of collaborators with the opposing side unless such collaboration is aimed, ab initio, against stated interests.

An argument could be made that such collaboration is also a form of alliance; this would be so only if the alliance does not function in such a way that extra-legal methods are needed in pursuit of its objectives. For example, Akintola was able to pull off his electoral ‘victory’ only through extra-legal methods aided by the center; Omoboriowo did the same thing, just as Obasanjo’s “do or die” in 2003-2007 was a function of extra-legal methodology of the center, and now the political machine of appointing leaders for the Yoruba by Fulani princes seems to have moved to Ondo State. We have such methodologies in place according to an opinion provided by APC’s National Legal Adviser which set the stage for the mathematical fraud now plaguing the state and which fetched the Legal Adviser a position on some Electoral/Constitutional Committee.

It will be interesting to see the outcome of this committee’s work when part of its membership was involved in unwholesome legal abracadabra. In all instances therefore, such conspiracy always rests on these extra-legal methods which calls into question the motive of such collaboration. There is not one instance in our history where the logic of the collaborators’ expectation took them to victory by itself. This is so simply because such logic lacks substance in Yorubaland hence the resort to mathematical frauds, every time.

As noted by the late Adeagbo Akinjogbin, at the time of intense warfare between the Yoruba and Fulani for the control of Yorubaland, the Fulani were able to befriend prominent Yoruba warriors and to persuade them to fight on their side or at worst remain neutral at critical times—this was how Atiba, who later became Alaafin ended up fighting on the side of Ilorin-Fulani against the Yoruba people, an episode which was classified as “Atiba who is stupid enough to go to Ilorin to learn wisdom”. This had been a recurring decimal in Yoruba history—the Fulani always achieve their aim (but only temporarily) because of a preponderance of Yoruba collaborators, which Hubert Ogunde captured as agents that work to turn “the Yoruba into everyone’s plaything”.

There is no way these collaborators would hope to be independent of the forces that brought them to power, not only because it will run counter to natural instincts, but also because of the way and manner they got to power as manifested in the five being greater than six. The question for the Yoruba Nation is whether those who favored Ondo mathematics in a primary election will not go beyond it in the actual election in order to ensure their victory, thus gaining further ground for Fulani hegemonist aspirations. As usual, such ‘victory’ will turn out to be meaningless as it will not take the country out of the woods.

Arguably, Federalism is the Yoruba minimum demand for a stable and egalitarian Nigeria. This demand was clearly stated in the APC Manifesto. If it is then assumed that the Tinubu group within the APC is not interested in pursuing this goal to its logical conclusion, the response would not be a reliance on the center’s extra-legal methodology but simply to generate an engagement with that group as well as the entire Yoruba APC. Otherwise, it will be akin to saying that the center is actively pursuing such a goal, which will be false, especially when it is known that every Federal Government since 1999 had always blocked addressing this issue in a fundamental manner. It is doubtful if adoption of extra-legal methods to neutralize Tinubu and his group would endure, as it did not with Awolowo and even Abiola.

What all of these show is that Tinubu is not the problem for Yorubaland and cannot now be declared shortsighted in his contributions to making the defeat of PDP a reality. By providing leadership for formation of APC, Tinubu did not do anything wrong. Mainstream Yoruba politicians have never been in alliance with the Fulani. Taking the risk on account of peace and stability in the country is not a mistake. The ball of making the alliance between the Yoruba and Fulani work is not in Tinubu’s court as he is not the president. The ball is in the court of Mohammed Buhari.

At stake now is APC’s Change mantra personified in the President whose claim to moral probity and incorruptibility is now challenged by his acquiescence to the Ondo mathematical fraud. Just as Goodluck Jonathan feigned ignorance about sixteen being greater than nineteen, so is President Buhari claiming ignorance about both the Kogi and Ondo travesties. This would not have raised any concerns but for our being saddled with a supposedly incorruptible president going beyond his moral bounds to ensure his political dominance. Patriotic citizens must know that no morality can justify utilizing illegal methods to ensure Ondo primary victory or claiming ignorance about the manufacture of victory in Kogi gubernatorial election.

The primary issue before the Yoruba now is how to navigate our way out of central dominance and control of our political existence and the chance that we have is to take up the SW/Yoruba APC to advance the cause of True Federalism as stated in the party’s Manifesto. That NASS is embarking on its Constitutional review and the federal government has also established a committee to look into electoral and constitutional matters mandates the SW APC to engage the Yoruba people, in a direct manner, to become makers of their own destiny and not simply respond to whatever is dished out from the center in the name of constitutional amendments. That is the only way to resist this Ondo shenanigan. And this is the way to resist another fraudulent constitutional document being foisted on the Yoruba in the name of majoritarianism, which itself should be a topic at a constitutional conference.

Long epistle