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Independent Biafra Will Not Be A Viable Country - Stratfor Report - Politics - Nairaland

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Independent Biafra Will Not Be A Viable Country - Stratfor Report by kjhova(m): 3:51pm On Feb 05, 2017
The arrest in Nigeria of the UK-based Radio Biafra “director” Nnamdi Kanu last year has brought to the fore the clamour for a separatist Biafran nation. The rise of Kanu, and his movement, the Indigenous People of Biafra, IPOB, shows that unless the issue is tackled at its root, newer, more sophisticated movements among ever-younger generations demanding Biafra will keep rising.

This report does not make a case either for or against the independence of the Igbo people of Nigeria. The purpose of this report is to empirically examine Biafra, its history, its viability, the level of support it enjoys and objectively provide a case for or against Biafran secession...

Outside of the oil debate, the Biafra nation lacks the financial markets infrastructure that is required to support the economy. It would have to develop a financial capital from scratch – probably at Onitsha, a busy market town.

Currently, all of Nigeria’s banks are headquartered in Lagos. It is hard to see any of them relocating all of their operations to the new country. Just as the banks are based out of Lagos, so are the industrial conglomerates – the new country would therefore need new banks and new conglomerates. It is believed that the Nnewi-Aba-Onitsha axis will supply this. However, this assumption is very hopeful. In addition, the new nation’s borrowing costs, by virtue of its size and pedigree, would almost certainly be higher. Its bond market would be small and illiquid.

A big problem could be its currency. Proponents want to re- launch the Biafra Pound which existed during the civil war; others have discussed maintaining use of the Naira. This second option would imply entering a monetary union without fiscal union, a set-up that has proved disastrous in Europe.

The new nation would suffer restrictions in trying to access Nigeria’s 120 million+ market. Currently there are no borders, customs checks, separate administrative, accounting or tax procedures on the movement of labour, goods or services. The separation of the two states would require new border posts to be set up, and the dynamics of international trade would take root thereby eroding the benefits of a single market. In addition to attracting foreign investments, the independent nation would need quickly to establish the legal and administrative framework to promote its interests in the global market place. This would require enhanced skills and capabilities in a range of areas that are now the responsibility of the Nigerian Government. Whilst there are Igbos around the globe with these skills, attracting them to this project may prove di cult.

Much of the new nation’s budget will be devoted to defence. Surrounded by a larger and very hostile Nigerian nation on all sides, it is inevitable that border clashes will happen and Biafra will need to equip itself for defence very quickly, which will likely prove to be an expensive and draining venture on much needed public funds.

It is actually difficult to find positives in this independence story. The region has no tourist draws, no significant solid mineral deposits apart from medium grade coal. If the Igbos really want independence for political or cultural reasons, they should go for it. One cannot place monetary value on national pride. However, analysed factually, it is not the best course of action.

https://www.stratfor.com/the-hub/biafra-question-sifting-facts-sentiments
Re: Independent Biafra Will Not Be A Viable Country - Stratfor Report by LecciGucci: 4:06pm On Feb 05, 2017
C.R.A.P

12 Likes

Re: Independent Biafra Will Not Be A Viable Country - Stratfor Report by innovatn4change: 4:08pm On Feb 05, 2017
Ofcourse not. Is this guy mad. Once biafra is declared it will activate the password in the universal software and and a new utopian state will emerge instantly. No sickness, no hatred , no kwarrupshion , no poverty , no sadness, no discrimination. grin

7 Likes

Re: Independent Biafra Will Not Be A Viable Country - Stratfor Report by EasternActivist: 4:15pm On Feb 05, 2017
Poor lazy analysis, and better come to the knowledge that you guys ain't God.
That's how you guys claimed Trump won't succeed, now guess who is the POTUS? Better go lick your shameful guts...

For the records, Eastern Nigeria was one of the best and fast growing economy in Nigeria and Africa before the unfortunate civil war...

Prove Today still shows that eastern Nigeria still houses two largest West African international markets that enjoy patronage beyond Nigeria and West Africa.

Enough mineral and human resources, Eastern Nigeria is blessed with arable lands for cash crops, crude oil, gas, coal e. T. C all in commercial quantities...

Is of no doubt that if left alone, Eastern Nigeria will rise to greatness and amazement of the world and to disappointment of igbophobia elements just like the poster.

18 Likes

Re: Independent Biafra Will Not Be A Viable Country - Stratfor Report by zendy: 4:18pm On Feb 05, 2017
If Gambia, a small country of 1.8 million people (probably the population of the city of Enugu) can be viable, how can Biafra then not be viable?

How can Gambia be more viable than Biafra?

16 Likes 2 Shares

Re: Independent Biafra Will Not Be A Viable Country - Stratfor Report by dplordx(m): 4:40pm On Feb 05, 2017
LecciGucci:
C.R.A.R.P

Strafor is used by the CIA and made up of its ex agents. They know what they are saying. I don't know why they won't even give you that Biafra sef.

2 Likes

Re: Independent Biafra Will Not Be A Viable Country - Stratfor Report by Nobody: 4:43pm On Feb 05, 2017
dplordx:


Strafor is used by the CIA and made up of its ex agents. They know what they are saying. I don't know why they won't even give you that Biafra sef.
Strafor is a collection of dull@rds

12 Likes

Re: Independent Biafra Will Not Be A Viable Country - Stratfor Report by leofab(f): 4:59pm On Feb 05, 2017
Twoface want to be like Obasanjo while Idris wants to be like Fela.. shame on 2-face and where is Idris my man?

1 Like

Re: Independent Biafra Will Not Be A Viable Country - Stratfor Report by MonPro: 5:17pm On Feb 05, 2017
you mean booharry sponsored yoruba zombified report. I agree. grin grin

7 Likes

Re: Independent Biafra Will Not Be A Viable Country - Stratfor Report by oduastates: 5:34pm On Feb 05, 2017
Not a new story.
Re: Independent Biafra Will Not Be A Viable Country - Stratfor Report by Ngokafor(f): 5:39pm On Feb 05, 2017
....Is Nigeria a viable country undecided..
Re: Independent Biafra Will Not Be A Viable Country - Stratfor Report by Nobody: 5:44pm On Feb 05, 2017
All reasonable minds have always maintained the unviability of a Biafran state. Only a few IPOB miscreants think otherwise
Re: Independent Biafra Will Not Be A Viable Country - Stratfor Report by mandarin: 5:45pm On Feb 05, 2017
The difference between Africans and Caucasians is that the latter do plan, exercise their foresights and prepare themselves unlike Africans that think of now, want it now and hardly bother about posterity.

You cannot wave with a back of hand that this intelligent report is crap. Even though I believe Biafra can work, I pray it does soon alongside other countries from the Nigeria of today, we must not lose the sight of possible challenges.
Lets look at those factors mentioned, finance for instance, how many wealthy people will within the first ten years want to risk moving all their businesses there and for a country that, if parts of the Niger Delta like Porthacourt isn't there, will be faced with serious cash crunch because after the north, until maybe recently, many businesses don't pay tax and cultural change will be serious.
Resources also is another factor and the fact that land use will be a great challenge considering the huge population.

That these people said all these is to show those challenges that can come but it isn't a foreclosure of the success of Biafra. If Biafra is an all igbo country then, they are business minded and will survive maybe more outside their country and coming to develop real estates there. The limitations I see are governance problem, economic restructuring, lack of access to the Ocean and food security. I wish Biafra the best if it ever be

1 Like

Re: Independent Biafra Will Not Be A Viable Country - Stratfor Report by kjhova(m): 9:22am On Sep 23, 2017
@mynd44, @seun, @lalasticlala;

I think the events of the last few weeks makes this post pertinent for front page to get more enlightened views on a matter which is critical to our nation.
Re: Independent Biafra Will Not Be A Viable Country - Stratfor Report by FeloniousFelon: 9:43am On Sep 23, 2017
Biafra will become more prosperous than any other region or nation in Africa for the simple reason that it will be peaceful and stable.

2 Likes

Re: Independent Biafra Will Not Be A Viable Country - Stratfor Report by Throwback: 9:51am On Sep 23, 2017
The only thing Biafra can hope to survive on is Tourism and Exports.

-Nothing of interest to attract tourists to SE.
-The business mindset is already fixated on imports, but with Biafra no Nigerian market to patronize such imports again, and no access to the sea to even enable such importation.

Biafra will only survive, in reality, at the mercy of Nigeria.

3 Likes

Re: Independent Biafra Will Not Be A Viable Country - Stratfor Report by emmapowerful: 10:10am On Sep 23, 2017
Biafra will be a financial success
because Igbo sons and daughters the world over
shall contribute their time, energy and money to that end.

When the Zoinists were promoting a modern state of Israel,
nobody, including this Stratfor, would've given them a chance.
Look at Israel today.

3 Likes

Re: Independent Biafra Will Not Be A Viable Country - Stratfor Report by kjhova(m): 10:34am On Sep 23, 2017
FeloniousFelon:
Biafra will become more prosperous than any other region or nation in Africa for the simple reason that it will be peaceful and stable.



Superlative expressions like this can be worrisome as it glosses over potential problems that need clear minded attention early on in the life of a new republic.

1 Like

Re: Independent Biafra Will Not Be A Viable Country - Stratfor Report by FeloniousFelon: 10:43am On Sep 23, 2017
kjhova:


Superlative expressions like this can be worrisome as it glosses over potential problems that need clear minded attention early on in the life of a new republic.

Biafra will be culturally and spiritually one.

Any other problems will be political in nature.

Mind you the SE is the region that witnesses little or no political upheavals during elections.

The case of Anambra gubernatorial elections with all the heavy weights and billionaires vying for the governorship seat with no election violence is a case in point.

1 Like

Re: Independent Biafra Will Not Be A Viable Country - Stratfor Report by omohayek: 10:46am On Sep 23, 2017
.
Re: Independent Biafra Will Not Be A Viable Country - Stratfor Report by omohayek: 10:46am On Sep 23, 2017
kjhova:


Superlative expressions like this can be worrisome as it glosses over potential problems that need clear minded attention early on in the life of a new republic.
"Cast not thy pearls before swine, lest they trample them under their feet, and turn again and rend you." Expecting sober, cautious, objective reasoning from this lot is not to be expected. At best thoughtful suggestions like yours will earn you no more than the usual "Afonja!" sobriquet accompanied by pictures of various men with prominent tribal marks. This is a faith-based movement, not a rational one, with heretics and doubters seen to be in need of severe reprimands.

3 Likes

Re: Independent Biafra Will Not Be A Viable Country - Stratfor Report by slimfit1(m): 10:59am On Sep 23, 2017
FeloniousFelon:


Biafra will be culturally and spiritually one.

Any other problems will be political in nature.

Mind you the SE is the region that witnesses little or no political upheavals during elections.

The case of Anambra gubernatorial elections with all the heavy weights and billionaires vying for the governorship seat with no election violence is a case in point.



Really when you still complain about the governor coming only from one local government or senatorial district. Goodluck
Re: Independent Biafra Will Not Be A Viable Country - Stratfor Report by FeloniousFelon: 11:03am On Sep 23, 2017
slimfit1:


Really when you still complain about the governor coming only from one local government or senatorial district. Goodluck

That's because the Nigerian system promoted tribalism above merit.

There won't be any governors or executive officers who operate with impunity under an immunity clause.

The new republic will be highly decentralised and will operate a parliamentary system.

They will learn from your despotic nation that absolute power corrupts!
Re: Independent Biafra Will Not Be A Viable Country - Stratfor Report by devindevin2000: 11:03am On Sep 23, 2017
kjhova:
[s]The arrest in Nigeria of the UK-based Radio Biafra “director” Nnamdi Kanu last year has brought to the fore the clamour for a separatist Biafran nation. The rise of Kanu, and his movement, the Indigenous People of Biafra, IPOB, shows that unless the issue is tackled at its root, newer, more sophisticated movements among ever-younger generations demanding Biafra will keep rising.

This report does not make a case either for or against the independence of the Igbo people of Nigeria. The purpose of this report is to empirically examine Biafra, its history, its viability, the level of support it enjoys and objectively provide a case for or against Biafran secession...

Outside of the oil debate, the Biafra nation lacks the financial markets infrastructure that is required to support the economy. It would have to develop a financial capital from scratch – probably at Onitsha, a busy market town.

Currently, all of Nigeria’s banks are headquartered in Lagos. It is hard to see any of them relocating all of their operations to the new country. Just as the banks are based out of Lagos, so are the industrial conglomerates – the new country would therefore need new banks and new conglomerates. It is believed that the Nnewi-Aba-Onitsha axis will supply this. However, this assumption is very hopeful. In addition, the new nation’s borrowing costs, by virtue of its size and pedigree, would almost certainly be higher. Its bond market would be small and illiquid.

A big problem could be its currency. Proponents want to re- launch the Biafra Pound which existed during the civil war; others have discussed maintaining use of the Naira. This second option would imply entering a monetary union without fiscal union, a set-up that has proved disastrous in Europe.

The new nation would suffer restrictions in trying to access Nigeria’s 120 million+ market. Currently there are no borders, customs checks, separate administrative, accounting or tax procedures on the movement of labour, goods or services. The separation of the two states would require new border posts to be set up, and the dynamics of international trade would take root thereby eroding the benefits of a single market. In addition to attracting foreign investments, the independent nation would need quickly to establish the legal and administrative framework to promote its interests in the global market place. This would require enhanced skills and capabilities in a range of areas that are now the responsibility of the Nigerian Government. Whilst there are Igbos around the globe with these skills, attracting them to this project may prove di cult.

Much of the new nation’s budget will be devoted to defence. Surrounded by a larger and very hostile Nigerian nation on all sides, it is inevitable that border clashes will happen and Biafra will need to equip itself for defence very quickly, which will likely prove to be an expensive and draining venture on much needed public funds.

It is actually difficult to find positives in this independence story. The region has no tourist draws, no significant solid mineral deposits apart from medium grade coal. If the Igbos really want independence for political or cultural reasons, they should go for it. One cannot place monetary value on national pride. However, analysed factually, it is not the best course of action.

https://www.stratfor.com/the-hub/biafra-question-sifting-facts-sentiments[/s]

2 Likes

Re: Independent Biafra Will Not Be A Viable Country - Stratfor Report by FeloniousFelon: 11:05am On Sep 23, 2017
omohayek:

"Cast not thy pearls before swine, lest they trample them under their feet, and turn again and rend you." Expecting sober, cautious, objective reasoning from this lot is not to be expected. At best thoughtful suggestions like yours will earn you no more than the usual "Afonja!" sobriquet accompanied by pictures of various men with prominent tribal marks. This is a faith-based movement, not a rational one, with heretics and doubters seen to be in need of severe reprimands.

And how is that any of your concern afonja?

Is your sophisticated SW any better than the SE?

No matter how comfortable a house nigga is than the field niggas, he still remains a nigga.
Re: Independent Biafra Will Not Be A Viable Country - Stratfor Report by ElsonMorali: 11:07am On Sep 23, 2017
Is that reporter Alright at all? angry angry angry angry angry

He's written nonsense.

Biafra will be very viable. The people are very hardworking and they are technologically sound. They almost defeated Nigeria in the civil war with their technology, If only America and Britain did not interfere.

Do you know that Igbos are very enterprising and they are politically matured?

I pray they get a referendum. I Hope I'll have the opportunity to vote. They definitely have my vote, No questions asked.

I support the realization of the sovereign state they are clamoring for. And I believe that within a very short time, it will become a Utopian nation. A nation that will rival countries like the U.S.and other developed countries.

The Igbos really need to go, so that they can become the beacon of light and Hope for Africa and the world.

They need to leave now!
Re: Independent Biafra Will Not Be A Viable Country - Stratfor Report by omohayek: 12:14pm On Sep 23, 2017
FeloniousFelon:


And how is that any of your concern afonja?

Is your sophisticated SW any better than the SE?

No matter how comfortable a house nigga is than the field niggas, he still remains a nigga.
I knew your imbeciles wouldn't disappoint: if you'd bothered to look up my post history before spewing your tripe, you'd know that I fully support your right to secession, as at the very least it will mean we will be able to rid ourselves of the likes of you for good. Thanks for showing up and illustrating what I meant about pearls before swine, though!

4 Likes

Re: Independent Biafra Will Not Be A Viable Country - Stratfor Report by FeloniousFelon: 12:19pm On Sep 23, 2017
omohayek:

I knew your imbeciles wouldn't disappoint: if you'd bothered to look up my post history before spewing your tripe, you'd know that I fully support your right to secession, as at the very least it will mean we will be able to rid ourselves of the likes of you for good. Thanks for showing up and illustrating what I meant about pearls before swine, though!


Nobody asked for your opinion and permission towards Biafra restoration.

Now go and recite your daily koranic verses
Re: Independent Biafra Will Not Be A Viable Country - Stratfor Report by omohayek: 12:22pm On Sep 23, 2017
FeloniousFelon:



Nobody asked for your opinion and permission towards Biafra restoration.

Now go and recite your daily koranic verses
Oh go f**k yourself already, dipshit. Can't you IPOB mo.rons ever come up with new material, instead of recycling the same old tired garbage? Show us that you have more than two brain cells to rub together between you all combined!

5 Likes

Re: Independent Biafra Will Not Be A Viable Country - Stratfor Report by Project2020(m): 12:25pm On Sep 23, 2017
That what they said that South Africa will never be free they even said USA will never have a black president lol
Re: Independent Biafra Will Not Be A Viable Country - Stratfor Report by nijabazaar: 1:58pm On Sep 23, 2017
OP u forgot to stress that the report is a collection of mini surveys/research and that the majority of the surveys had respondents who are positive of Biafra's viability.


OP u just selected the section that suits ur motive.

Stupid.
Re: Independent Biafra Will Not Be A Viable Country - Stratfor Report by nijabazaar: 2:04pm On Sep 23, 2017
this x also in the report, OP u should ve put this too... but then u are not objective. picking only part of a distinct survey that favours ur bias.



Implications for Nigeria

Given the disparity in size between the South-East’s current economy and that of the rest of Nigeria, the economic implications of independence for the Igbo Nation on what will remain of Nigeria would not be as significant as many may fear. The areas which we believe would deal Nigeria the most impact its international standing and development indicators.

Nigeria has a target to be one of 20 largest economies by 2020, and losing its South-East states would dent that mission considerably; bye-bye G20. Regardless, Nigeria would remain the largest economy in Africa, and its largest oil producer.

In terms of its poverty index, the country will suffer a dent. According to the World Bank, the number of poor Nigerians as at 2013 stood at 58 million, half of whom live in the North East and North West. An estimated 60% of the country’s population lives below the poverty line, which is defined as living under US$2 a day – and this was pre the 2014 upsurge of Boko Haram violence in the North-East.

It is safe to say that less the South-East region, Nigeria’s poverty numbers will cross 70%.

It is truly difficult to imagine that majority of Igbos residing in Lagos and other Nigerian cities will close their businesses and relocate to the new nation. If they do, the traffic conditions in those cities will improve but the loss of vibrancy offered by the Igbos will be felt by all who remain. Without the Igbos, Nigeria’s general literacy and skills level will also drop. In terms of demography, Nigeria will lose its religious balance, and become a majority Muslim country. This is a major fear harboured by many non-Muslims.


Finally, whilst Nigeria does not have the complications regarding defence that plagued Britain before the Scotland referendum of 2015 due to the location of ship building and nuclear deterrent activities in the region, there are still some strategic and financial consequences for Nigeria. Defence assets currently located in the South-East include a full Army Division (located in Enugu with smaller battalions scattered in various locations), an Air force base at Enugu and a major automobile manufacturing plant also at Enugu. Relocating these will cost money and the border with the new nation will added to the cost of border patrols required to be patrolled by Nigeria’s military, customs and immigration services amongst others.

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