Succession intrigues: Don’t count on us, Middle Belt tells North
By Terna Doki (Makurdi) and Adeola Yusuf (Lagos)

• President’s absence stalls deregulation, PIB

Northern hawks were told on Sunday not to count on the support of the Middle Belt in their quest to subvert the Constitution if it turns out that President Umaru Yar’Adua cannot continue in office.


Second Republic Communications Minister, Isaac Shaahu, who is the President of the Middle Belt Forum (MBF), described as insincere Northerners seeking the resignation of Vice President, Goodluck Jonathan, in anticipation of Yar’Adua’s incapacitation by ill health.


He stated in an interview in Gboko that those who want to circumvent the Constitution are vultures and scavengers who should mind their scheming because Niger Delta militants are watching their steps.


“If the vultures and scavengers of the North stir any fight with any part of the country, the Middle Belt will not come in to fight for them. The Middle Belt will not be part of any trouble they start. We fought for them in the past, but we shall not do it again,’’ Shaahu warned.


He advised them to allow wise counsel to prevail by abiding with the law on succession.


However, he maintained that Yar’Adua’s sickness does not warrant his resignation, because Nigeria is not the first country to have a sick President.


Shaahu blamed the country’s predicament on former President Olusegun Obasanjo, “Who knew that Yar’Adua was sick yet imposed him on the people, so as to create room for a Southerner to take over.


“It was Obasanjo’s design that a President of Northern extraction should not last more than six months on the seat. But since he did not consult with God first, Yar’Adua is still moving, to his very surprise.”


Shaahu said if Nigerians are not courageous enough to jail Obasanjo “for the atrocities he committed while in Aso Rock, God will unfailingly take Obasanjo back to prison.”


He argued that the only way Nigeria can be free from trouble is to imprison Obasanjo, expressing fears that the country is heading towards full destruction as everything has gone bad.


Yar’Adua’s ill heath may compel Abuja to shift the dates for the deregulation of the oil industry and the passage of the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB).


Both were anticipated before the end of the year, but a source said at the weekend that “his ill health has halted progress on them.”


Although the National Assembly (NASS) has concluded plans to pass the PIB into law, it has to be delayed until Yar’Adua returns from Saudi Arabia, the source explained, because his assent cannot be obtained at the moment.


The Petroleum Ministry is also nervous about announcing deregulation behind his back, with the source noting that Labour “has threatened a show down with the government over deregulation, and everybody is being careful not to cause anything that could destabilise the country in the absence of the President.”


Oil marketers have, however, alerted that Abuja plans to announce deregulation at a time Nigerians least expect.


Minister of State for Petroleum, Odein Ajumogobia, disclosed last month that the refineries in Warri and Kaduna could resume operations this month, which analysts speculate could mean deregulation before December 31.


“The assurance we have from various meetings with government representatives is that deregulation will come before the end of this year, and it will come when it is least expected,” warned Independent Petroleum Marketers’ Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) Mosimi Depot Chairman, Adebisi Bada.


He asked IPMAN members to prepare for deregulation “any moment from now,” and cautioned them against fuel hoarding because Abuja is “looking for scapegoats for the policy.”


Bada said the IPMAN will not defend any member caught hoarding.


The Warri Refinery refines 125,000 barrels per day (bpd), and the Kaduna Refinery 110,000 bpd.


Though the government hopes to finish repairs on the two refineries this month, their combined refining capacity cannot satisfy domestic consumption of 30 million litres per day.


“The Chanomi creek pipelines are still bad. Once they are repaired, we are told that by the middle of December crude will go to Warri and Kaduna,” Ajumogobia told reporters on November 18.


In the mean time, Mosimi depot is running short of fuel and this has shifted major loading operation to private depots in Apapa, Lagos.


Bada confirmed the shortage at Mosimi, which he said plays a vital role in fuel distribution nationwide.


His words: “The Mosimi depot, which is under system 2B is the most strategic because it serves the depots in Ibadan, Ilorin, Ore, and others. But at the moment, loading at the depot is very tight.


“We were getting about three million litres on daily basis before; now, our members load in Apapa due to the fact that we get insufficient volume from Mosimi.


“Out of the little that Mosimi can serve is being given to the NNPC (Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation) mega stations, while part of that is also being used for bridging.”


He blamed the uncertainty of the date of deregulation for the panic buying of fuel, which has led to shortage in some states.


However, the lull in violence in the Niger Delta has enabled workers to begin repairs on the Chanomi pipeline, which has been attacked by militants in the past.


The two refineries in Port Harcourt are currently in operation with a capacity of about 210,000 bpd.


Nigeria’s four refineries have a nameplate capacity of 445,000 bpd but have never operated at that level.


And even if they operate at full capacity, they would produce only a fraction of the needs of Africa’s most populous country of 140 million people.


Refinery outages caused mainly by mismanagement and sabotage force the country to depend on fuel imports for domestic consumption.


“Once the refineries are working we will reduce our importation by about 40 per cent,” Ajumogobia said.


Despite vying with Angola as Africa’s top oil producer, Nigeria imports 18 million litres of petrol a day or some 85 per cent of its needs.


Fuel subsidy, which Yar’Adua has promised to abolish, costs Abuja N45 billion each month, Ajumogobia added.