Infinitikoncept:

We're we forced to put the economy of 180million people in auto pilot for months? Where is the diversification I've been hearing gone to? I don't compare administration Cox times are different but it's when the roads are rough we see true leaders. So far so good this administration drama has been the worst I've seen.

LaEvilIMiss:
If you were a Bank Manager earning enough to be a member of Ikoyi Club, Boat Club and Polo Club.. suddenly you get SACKED! and no longer earn as much. does it not make sense to cut your coat according to your new cloth instead of spending your little savings to maintain your status quo.

Nigeria used to earn $150 per barrel and nearly $8+billion monthly.. now we earn $2.5+ billion monthly and we are spending our savings to fight the USD dollar.. na we get money pass!! dancing like mad prostitutes becaus0 within 1 month.. does that even make economic sense. do you know how much development $1.8 billion can do for Nigeria in infrastructure right now? .. our Madness has been since we were born

Jetleeee:

I don't even have anything to "SAID"
Now will you duckoff before I pee in your mouth?

tdayof:
Can banks increase their international limit already? Dollar is getting okay and can someone help with banks that accepts Paypal.

SuperS1Panther:
Children of Hatred will still twist the narratives by telling us how the policy is not sustainable and blablablablablabla.


Speculators and hoarders and looters --- how market? Your wealth has dwindled from 520 to less than 400/$ right in your selfish eyes.

CBN please keep driving the Naira towards 300. As long as Nigeria is selling Crude Oil, it is very sustainable, while our Foreign Reserve is also increasing gradually. Bad news to haters.

HAH:
Sister, you wrote as if Nigeria just dash out the dollars for free. Nigeria earns in dollars and when they wan to use the dollars earned to work on the infrastructures you mentioned they certainly need to change it to naira hence asking CBN to sell some so that contractors and salaries will be paid. Not everything earned is spent, that is why the foreign reserve grew from $25b to over $30B.

As long as Nigeria earns in dollars and spend naira locally then it must change those dollars earned, and as long as oil is above $50 and there is peace in Niger delta if there is the political this policy can be sustained. Personally I wellcome a 50:50 between injection and reserve.

rattlesnake:
am a PMB guy na werrin dey warri you

jamesgordon:


GTB still charges N320 for a limit of $100 per Month! A friend just got PTA at the rate of N330 for $4000 from the Bank! ... Who's being cheated?

obailala:

First clarification is this, GEJ met it at N160 and it stayed at N160 till 2014 Oct/Nov just after oil price began to crash. It was between ~Nov 2014 to May 2015 that it crashed from N160 to N220. Also within that period, the reserves crashed from ~$38bn to ~$28bn. So if we agree that oil price was the real problem (a lot of Jonathanians still bluntly refuse to accept this commonsensical fact), may I remind you that oil price was still above $60/barrel as at May 2015 but beyond that date after the current admin came in, it further crashed to as low as $28/barrel and to compound matters, oil production fell by up to 50% all through 2016. So if you must carry out your above weak calculations, please do well to consider all supplementing and complementing factors.

Now it is quite commonsensical to note that when the CBN injects dollars in the system, it strengthens the Naira. But for several months prior to May 2015, the CBN kept pumping dollars into the system (albeit at a reduced rate) to shore up the Naira Value and this led to the rapid drop in the foreign reserves (~$10bn in 8 months), but the Naira still crashed from N160 - N220 nevertheless.

Now after the reserves dropped to $28.6bn as at May 2015, reducing the amount the CBN injected into the system weekly was inevitable (forex restrictions) because nobody wants to imagine what would happen to an import dependent nation should it run out of forex reserves. And of course, that reduced forex injection fueled the forex scarcity which saw the Naira crashing uncontrollably.

If only GEJ had saved up like his predecessors did (instead of squandering the forex previously saved by his predecessors to a negative balance), especially considering that his regime enjoyed an unprecedented boom in oil income, then the CBN would certainly have had enough to sustain its weekly dollar injection and the Naira definitely wouldn't have crashed the way it did post May 2015. Nigeria did not run into trouble in 2008 when we had a similar oil price crash which lasted about 6-7months because we were bailed out by a $20bn intervention from the CBN (saved by OBJ/Yaradua). With a measly saving of ~$30bn (reserves + ECA), I wonder what you expected the new admin should have used to bail out Nigeria in the current oil crisis which has lasted close to 3 years now since you claim the fault is 100% from the current admin and not the saintly last guys.

You asked me to be discerning, I have just given you an explanation from a discerning mind regarding the situation of things in your country. It is not enough to just give a shallow analysis saying "when GEJ was there, the dollar was N160 and only crashed to N220, so therefore it is Buhari's fault that it crashed further." Such a shallow analysis should be reserved for an audience which is not privileged with education or discernment. If you want me to give a further breakdown of all I wrote above, complete with links and citations for every single figure, i can gladly do that after working hours. Thanks

tuniski:

The longer your epistle the more lame it becomes. Bottomline and all factors considered, we never had it this bad as a nation!

Jetleeee:


I don't even have anything to "SAID"

Now will you duckoff before I pee in your mouth?

obailala:
Lol... I challenge you to prove your intelligence by pointing out what exactly you think is lame in my long epistle?

Simply stating that things are worse today than before without paying any attention or deliberately trying to ignore the underlying reasons, what reasoning could be lamer than that?

Such shallow analysis is only expected and permitted from people who aren't privileged with an education or the gift of discernment, e.g. the uneducated okada man or market woman on the streets; its certainly not permitted from someone like you who I believe is educated and should be enlightened.

tuniski:

Considering every undercurrent, nigeria is worst off today. And making it about oil price is lazy brain.
Today, the oil price is Above budgeted benchmark and for most of last year it was equally higher. The drop in volume sale is 100% the fault of this administration.
Again, this admin instead of paying subsidy like previous admins actually raised the pump price of petrol highest in record time. That done without a kobo increase in salaries and wages.
I wonder how anyone will justify this. Mediocre govt as performing!

jamesgordon:


GTB still charges N320 for a limit of $100 per Month! A friend just got PTA at the rate of N330 for $4000 from the Bank! ... Who's being cheated?

doubleakins:
Please enough of the grammar. Pls which banks still allows paypal with their MasterCard. Does Gt, FCMB, Diamond, Sterling, Heritage etc still accepts paypal.
Pls urgent response needed. Thanks

jesufifunmi:
Hi, pls what bank did your friend get it from at 330? Other banks seem to still be selling at 375.pls

modath:


It's not other banks seem to be selling, it's CBN's approved rate... so will wait for the guy to show the 330 evidence...You know our people & alternative facts...

bigsmoke2:

Enemies of progress

obailala:
Mr Man stop struggling.. I understand your desperation to disconnect the current situation from oil price so you can have a free bullet to fire at the govt, I understand your desperation to force a political explanation to a simple economic issue, but then, like I said earlier, you can only impress those same set of people I talked about (uneducated and undiscerning) with these your weak arguments; you will definitely also impress your band of fellow Jonathanians cos to you guys, you are still too emotionally driven amd you still dwell in 2015 election mood.

tuniski:

You are clearly drunk on the accidental victory of buhari in 2015 not to see that INEC has released election timetable for 2019.
Whether it is economic or political issue, they are connected and can't be separated. Have u heard the term political-economy?
To many apologists of this failed govt, u have all run out of defense aka blame game all u do is to use your emotional attachment in an attempt at reverse psychology!
The naira has moved from currency to tissue paper and now newspaper and u are celebrating mediocrity.
Let me ask you sef; what was the value of the naira when oil price was 12$ and below years gone even under OBJ with 3bn$ reserve, almost zero infrastructure.
Abeg find a better response.

obailala:
Haha.. apologist kwa... I am an apologist for the truth. I challenged you earlier to point out what sentence in my previous writeup is not true and I'm still waiting. I have clearly pointed out the reason why the Naira depreciated seriously post 2015, I am still waiting for you to fault my explanation but because of your desperation to glorify your hero GEJ and vilify everyone else, you keep giving common sense economics a political explanation, albeit it in a ridiculous way.

You asked the value of the naira when oil was $12 and the reserves $3billion?... If you want me to give you a comprehensive explanation to that, I can gladly do it after work hours. But I will give just a little explanation which I hope you are discerning enough to understand.

The value of the naira is determined by the twin forces of demand and supply. The demand for dollars today is 20 times more than what it was in 1999. To start with, Nigeria imports virtually 100% of petroleum products today (very high forex demand) but this wasnt the case in 1999. Also, Nigeria's daily fuel consumption today is more than 5 times what it was in 1999 when we had less cars and when only relatively rich people had generators. Today every student has a small gen and that is more demand for fuel which we import with dollars.

Furthermore, in 1999, Nigerians still used Nigerian made products, the import craze of today wasnt there in 1999. Unlike today when everybody holds an international mastercard or visa card in their pockets buying even handkerchiefs from china and Uk, in 1999, we didnt even have internet banking or ATM cards. Back then, only the rich who traveled abroad demanded dollars but that is clearly not the case today. I wouldnt even want to talk of the recurrent bill of the FG in 1999 compared to today.

In summary, based on demand and supply forces, I can tell you for a fact that $3billion in the reserves in 1999 is equivalent to up to $45 billion in the reserves today. So my friend, once again, your analysis is baseless.

tuniski:

Another epistle so lame!
Demand and supply ko subsidy ni! Abeg find some better defense or better still keep deceiving the ignorant and emotionally attached apologists of this super failed govt.
The dollar in 1999 in itself hasn't depreciated and I haven't done a naira analogy. [s]So 3bn$ in 1999 is basically 3bn$ in 2017.[/s] That is why the dollar is official currency of the world : it's stability!

tuniski:

Another epistle so lame!
Demand and supply ko subsidy ni! Abeg find some better defense or better still keep deceiving the ignorant and emotionally attached apologists of this super failed govt.
The dollar in 1999 in itself hasn't depreciated and I haven't done a naira analogy. So 3bn$ in 1999 is basically 3bn$ in 2017. That is why the dollar is official currency of the world : it's stability!

modath:


PTA is 375 per CBN's instruction..Which bank please? Can you snap a pic of the bank stamp as evidence?

Thank you...






Only 2 banks of the 20 something in the country allow card transactions of $100 limit ... 1 is GT which doesn't allow paypal, facebook ad etc, Access still does, give it a trial.

HAH:


With the downward trend of the dollar in the parallel market it may sooner than later be at par with the bank offered rate of 375, then people will stop going to bank for pta they will go to BDC where there is no limit of exchange and no much documentation.

Hope the CBN will reduce the official exchange rate of the naira to like 250, personally I believe the naira should hobo around 250 at this rate local producers will also gain as well as importers, the 250 is sort of equilibrium price

modath:


Are you kidding? I am but a novice when it comes to economy ( only read & agree with the "experts" who have been proven right 75% of the time) but even I in my economic sub literacy know this is not possible with a less than $100 crude oil price!! Not in this lifetime & 7 more..

CBN is already spending like a drunk defending at this stage, 250? Hover at 250? Why do you think foreign investors ran away? Why do you think the sham "float" failed?

Budget is 305, Interbank is 315, Embassies use 340 to calculate for visa fee, even oil marketers get @ 285 (50% though still resort to BDCs cos they don't all get), so where will the 250 factor? The reserves can only take so much!!!

Bros, there is a limit to "propaganda"

989900 , stagger, LordAdam , I think basic economic lesson is needed here... thx.

HAH:
is very simple dear, all the government need to do is continue with its interventions when it stabilizes they make it 50-50 between reserve and injection.

Already hoarders are in panic they are also selling, there will soon be glut in the market, where supply exceed demand which will inturn lead to price depreciation, remember with a stable fx regime fdi will flow which I also in fx, and lastly remittances, this is another huge source of fx.

Some people talk as if the CBN just give free dollars to bank, Nigeria earns in dollars from oil sales and we don't use dollar locally so the Government need naira to run the country therefore it needs to change this dollars earned to naira so the government must always change dollars to naira. Oil is just $50 imagine what will happen if it becomes a $70.

About 70% of our dollar demand is for import of fuel rice and wheat, I with dangote refinary coming on board and and new drive in local rice and wheat production certainly dolla demand for for will drop by atleast 70% at this point there will even be excess dollars that may make the dollar to be even less than N200 but I government
Should intervene via dollar mop up so so exporters will gain that I why I proposed proposed equilibrium price of N250 per dollar

obailala:
The only ignorant one here is you bro... The value of money to an individual is dependent on his demand for goods or services #CommonSenseEconomics

Naira is Naira but demand and supply determines the true value of the Naira to an individual. A single man may be comfortable earning N30k monthly, but after getting married and begetting 4 children, plus endless needs he has to meet from inlaws, he may need 300k monthly to live as comfortably as he was when he was single. In economic terms, we can say the 30k he earned when single is equivalent to the 300k he's earning when married #CommonSenseEconomics

Similarly, if Nigeria only needed $100million for importation of the foreign products we needed in 1999, $3billion in the forex reserves in 1999 is far more valuable than $30billion in 2015 when we need a minimum of $2-3billion to finance our standard needs #CommonSenseEconomics

So yes, dollars is dollars, but $3billion in 1999 is not same value as $30billion in 2015 because we now have far far higher demand for dollars.

modath:



I'm only going to address 2 things & won't anymore...

1. 70$ oil is NOT GOING TO HAPPEN, OPEC has done all it can & can do NO MORE, the cartel is barely keeping together... Oil is bouncing between 47-50$ now, & likely to go lower... Shale is coming back on stream now that oil price has gone up a bit....

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-22/tudor-pickering-holt-cuts-2018-crude-forecast-to-65-a-barrel


http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Goldman-Sachs-OPECs-Influence-On-Oil-Prices-Is-Dwindling.html

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/OPEC-In-Trouble-As-Saudis-Becoming-Weary-Of-Free-Riders.html


2.. Less than 300n isn't going to happen... 989900 with all optimism tapped out @ 350!!




Bros you need to read more so you can form independent thoughts and opinion... Like SLS, support for Bubu should NEVER blind one to the obvious...

tuniski:

I was expecting in your insistent on demand and supply, u will at least acknowledge that our population wasn't 20m in 1999 and now 200m. Again that, the demand by purchasing power of citizens was actually an achievement not a burden.
Yes, we have increased demand but so we have increased supply from diaspora remittances and FDI even export too.
Again, we have had far higher volume sale of crude now than 1999.
So when u try to skew the facts do understand that others will call u out.