obailala:
Lol... Just give up already! You keep shooting yourself on the foot even more with your arguments. So you actually know our population has increased seriously?... You also know the wage bill (both minimum wage and number of people under govt employ) has increased monumentally since 1999? Yet you want to compare notes between 1999 and 2017?

Stage 1: A man earns N20k monthly, he buys a plate of food for N30, but luckily he doesn't need to buy fuel because he refines them in his backyard. He struggles to survive.

Stage 2: The man suddenly begins to earn N100k, wow! but then, a plate of food rises to N100 and he also stops refining his fuel but now 'buys' it. He still struggles to survive, But at least the world sees him wearing nice clothes and eating better food.

Stage 3: The man still buys food for N100 and he still buys fuel cos he can't refine anymore, and then his income drops to less than 50k. He still wants the world to see him wearing nice clothes and eat good food.

If the man struggled in Stage 2, do you think he would struggle in Stage 3 or not?... Enough of this your desperation to just give this a political explanation. This is common sense economics that even a JSS1 student should be able to discern. There is no basis to compare 1999 to 2017.

...and finally, even though I don't think this is relevant, Nigeria isn't selling more oil now than in 1999; average oil production in 1999 wasn't less than 2million bpd.

At no time were we refining the crude products we need since 1999 even beyond.
In purchasing power parity, this current govt has depreciated and eroded purchasing power like never before in our history.

Let us just take it from May 2015 sef, tell me what has significantly changed on the demand and supply sides. Mind u, don't dwell on crude price cos budgeted benchmark have been exceeded.therefore we should be having net savings. Similarly, we are in a saintly govt where corruption is banished. Therefore, let us for the purpose of this discourse admit that 70% of revenue weree stolen under tthe thieving govt of GEJ alone.
We still have the exchange rate @197 official and 216 parallel market.

Remember, the reserve was used to defend the naira and 30bn$ was still left for buhari. So with just 30% of the level of revenue under GEJ, we should have at least price stability,fx stability, job stability and growing economy. Sadly, we have everything upside down, why?

tuniski:

At no time were we refining the crude products we need since 1999 even beyond.
In purchasing power parity, this current govt has depreciated and eroded purchasing power like never before in our history.

Let us just take it from May 2015 sef, tell me what has significantly changed on the demand and supply sides. Mind u, don't dwell on crude price cos budgeted benchmark have been exceeded.therefore we should be having net savings. Similarly, we are in a saintly govt where corruption is banished. Therefore, let us for the purpose of this discourse admit that 70% of revenue weree stolen under tthe thieving govt of GEJ alone.
We still have the exchange rate @197 official and 216 parallel market.

Remember, the reserve was used to defend the naira and 30bn$ was still left for buhari. So with just 30% of the level of revenue under GEJ, we should have at least price stability,fx stability, job stability and growing economy. Sadly, we have everything upside down, why?

Lol... Quit trying broo... you keep sounding funny the more you try.

You say a lot of forex was used to defend the value of the Naira under GEJ (this isn't news). But what I find weird and amusing is how you then expected the Naira value to remain the same after the nation ran out of forex to keep defending the Naira; you put the entire blame on Buhari even when you know he inherited next to nothing in the reserves to keep defending the naira.

You then go ahead to talk of oil price being above benchmark?... Bro abeg save us this embarrassment, this is commonsensical. Oil was $100 before and today it is roaming between $50 - $55. It doesnt matter if the budget benchmark is $20, bottom line is that the inflow of forex into the country Nigeria is now roughly less than half of what it was previously.

Regarding the exchange rate again, it dropped from N160 to roughly N220 when oil price began to crash under GEJ. It would certainly have been worse but the CBN like you said was still constantly spending huge sums to defend the Naira, hence it didnt get worse than N220.

Chart below shows how the reserves dropped rapidly because the CBN/GEJ kept struggling to defend the Naira with funds from the reserves hoping that the oil price drop will reverse soon. Meanwhile oi price during this nosediving period was still averagely above $65/barrel.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/nigeria/foreign-exchange-reserves

I don't dwell on empty rhetorics which is the typical mainstay of most Nigerian overnight politico-economic analysts, I prefer showing facts and verifiable figures. Of course since the oil prices refused to pick-up and with reserves dropping so low, it would have been foolish for the CBN to continue with the weekly defence of the Naira and risking a Venezuelan situation, hence the forex restrictions started which eventually tumbled the Naira to record low levels. I don't need to remind you that oil prices kept crashing after Buhari came in till it got to a bottom resistance at $28.

So Yes! you can keep blaming Buhari for the major Naira crash because he unfortunately was the president at the time when the INEVITABLE worst (which NOI even warned of) eventually occurred. But then, discerning minds who give a damn about the underlying reasons behind the Naira crash (and who don't rely on half-baked politico-economic beer parlour analysis) know much better. Thanks

modath:


Are you kidding? I am but a novice when it comes to economy ( only read & agree with the "experts" who have been proven right 75% of the time) but even I in my economic sub literacy know this is not possible with a less than $100 crude oil price!! Not in this lifetime & 7 more..

CBN is already spending like a drunk defending at this stage, 250? Hover at 250? Why do you think foreign investors ran away? Why do you think the sham "float" failed?

Budget is 305, Interbank is 315, Embassies use 340 to calculate for visa fee, even oil marketers get @ 285 (50% though still resort to BDCs cos they don't all get), so where will the 250 factor? The reserves can only take so much!!!

Bros, there is a limit to "propaganda"

989900 , stagger, LordAdam16, I think basic economic lesson is needed here... thx.

Madam, I no dey give anybody economic lesson again.

Make them dey wait for sub N300 exchange rate. E go shock them.

Citizens that don't want to be informed, scathe you when you try to inform them, na citizens be that?

Let him wait for N250/$1. In fact, I encourage him to tell the CBN to increase their spending. It'll make the retrace quicker and yummy.

Egypt floated their currency and received $13b in FDI within 2 months. If Nigeria with a larger economy floats, you can guess how much we will increase FDI within same time period. That FDI would be used to clear virtually all the backlog remaining.

I don talk finish, mk my post for no long.

-Lord

obailala:
Lol... Quit trying broo... you keep sounding funny the more you try.

You say a lot of forex was used to defend the value of the Naira under GEJ (this isn't news). But what I find weird and amusing is how you then expected the Naira value to remain the same after the nation ran out of forex to keep defending the Naira; you put the entire blame on Buhari even when you know he inherited next to nothing in the reserves to keep defending the naira.

You then go ahead to talk of oil price being above benchmark?... Bro abeg save us this embarrassment, this is commonsensical. Oil was $100 before and today it is roaming between $50 - $55. It doesnt matter if the budget benchmark is $20, bottom line is that the inflow of forex into the country Nigeria is now roughly less than half of what it was previously.

Regarding the exchange rate again, it dropped from N160 to roughly N220 when oil price began to crash under GEJ. It would certainly have been worse but the CBN like you said was still constantly spending huge sums to defend the Naira, hence it didnt get worse than N220.

Chart below shows how the reserves dropped rapidly because the CBN/GEJ kept struggling to defend the Naira with funds from the reserves hoping that the oil price drop will reverse soon. Meanwhile oi price during this nosediving period was still averagely above $65/barrel.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/nigeria/foreign-exchange-reserves

I don't dwell on empty rhetorics which is the typical mainstay of most Nigerian overnight politico-economic analysts, I prefer showing facts and verifiable figures. Of course since the oil prices refused to pick-up and with reserves dropping so low, it would have been foolish for the CBN to continue with the weekly defence of the Naira and risking a Venezuelan situation, hence the forex restrictions started which eventually tumbled the Naira to record low levels. I don't need to remind you that oil prices kept crashing after Buhari came in till it got to a bottom resistance at $28.

So Yes! you can keep blaming Buhari for the major Naira crash because he unfortunately was the president at the time when the INEVITABLE worst (which NOI even warned of) eventually occurred. But then, discerning minds who give a damn about the underlying reasons behind the Naira crash (and who don't rely on half-baked politico-economic beer parlour analysis) know much better. Thanks

Just tell me something; was the budgeted benchmark crude price below or above under the prevailing govt of GEJ and Buhari? Therein lies your answer! Long epistle and quotations only help to confuse those who lack capacity for discern.

tuniski:

Just tell me something; was the budgeted benchmark crude price below or above under the prevailing govt of GEJ and Buhari? Therein lies your answer! Long epistle and quotations only help to confuse those who lack capacity for discern.

Budgeted benchmark is $42, oil price today is $52, but the oil price 3 years ago was over $100.

Now I'm sure you went through elementary school?.... SO please tell us, $100 and $52, which is bigger?... Does it matter whether $52 is greater than $42?.... Is it greater than $100?... In the answer to these simple logical questions lies your intelligent answer.

obailala:
Budgeted benchmark is $42, oil price today is $52, but the oil price 3 years ago was over $100.

Now I'm sure you went through elementary school?.... SO please tell us, $100 and $52, which is bigger?... Does it matter whether $52 is greater than $42?.... Is it greater than $100?... In the answer to these simple logical questions lies your intelligent answer.

Good u know it is higher. That means in the economics and finance of the year's activities the price is not a negative variance!
I ask again, since u are stuck on oil price what then was the value of naira when oil price was 12$ in 1999?
U are being clever by half!

tuniski:

Good u know it is higher. That means in the economics and finance of the year's activities the price is not a negative variance!
I ask again, since u are stuck on oil price what then was the value of naira when oil price was 12$ in 1999?
U are being clever by half!

Lol... bros, now I can conclude that u no sabi book!

So after all my explanations on how the demand for the dollar at a particular time is the primary driving force for the value of the Naira, after all my explanations that the demand for the dollar today is over 10 times more than what it was in 1999, you still do not get it do you?

You still cannot figure out why the Naira was more valuable in 1999 compared to present day?....

Kindly go back to SS1 and this time, pay more attention in economics class when the topic of demand and supply is taught. I doubt I can help you.

tuniski:

Good u know it is higher. That means in the economics and finance of the year's activities the price is not a negative variance!
I ask again, since u are stuck on oil price what then was the value of naira when oil price was 12$ in 1999?
U are being clever by half!

Obailala has floored you hands down. If I were you I would have given up a long time ago. Except you just want to learn codedly from him.

olujastro:

Obailala has floored you hands down. If I were you I would have given up a long time ago. Except you just want to learn codedly from him.

Clap for yourself!

...