The PDP National Convention has come and gone, though many are comfortable with the outcome, but few are not, believing that they were sidelined.

This group arrogating to themselves the title of King Maker in the Nigerian political space, believes it will be disastrous for the PDP to ignore them in build up to 2019 election. They believe they can influence the outcome of any Presidential election, hence they are positioning for the PDP VP slot.

In this article, we are going to analyze the political clout of South Western Nigeria from 2011 and their impact on Presidential elections in Nigeria.

In 2011 election, the National election turnout was 52.3%, while turn out in the North was 52.8%, turn out in Eastern Nigerian (South East (66.9) and South South (67.0%)) was 67.0% while SW was 32.8% and they repeated this turn out in 2015 again.

While other regions either fell within the national average or exceeded it, South West was the only region that went below it by 37%, while South East and South South both exceeded it by 27.0%.

At the end of the election, out of the 16290593 votes casted in the South, the South West contributed 28.3% by casting only 4613712 votes, leaving South East and South South to provide the remaining 71.7%, casting 11676881.

Out of this 16290593 votes casted in the South, 13890271 votes were casted for PDP. South West even though it has the highest population in the South contributed only 20% of those votes by casting 2786417 votes, leaving South East with the lowest population and South South with the median population to contribute the other 80%, at 36% and 44% respectively and casting 4985246 and 6118608 votes respectively.

While South West contributed only 12.3% of the entire 22495187 votes PDP got at the election, South East and South South contributed 49.4%, leaving the entire North (3 regions) and FCT to provide the other 38.3%

It is important to point out that while South East gave 98.3% of their votes to PDP, South South gave 96.3%, while South West 60.4%, making them the only region that doesn't give bloc vote, while South East as PDP's strongest hold.

In 2015, South West gave 1851416 votes to PDP while giving 2433193 votes to APC, making APC win South West by a meager votes of 581777, advantage Anambra in the South East rendered useless by giving PDP 660762, returning advantage to PDP by 78985 votes.

It is important to point out that since majority of the 1851416 votes to PDP were gotten from Igbo dominated areas, should South West vote the way they did in 2015, Anambra will always be on ground to restore advantage.

While South West gave 43.2% of their votes to PDP, South East gave 93.0% of their votes to PDP while South South gave 91.8%. This again confirms South East as PDP's strongest hold and South West as the only region that doesn't give bloc votes in the South.

While South West contributed 14.4% of the total PDP's votes of 12853162 and 15.8% of APC's votes, South South and South East contributed 55.9% of PDP's votes and 4.0% of APC's votes leaving the entire North and FCT to contibute the other 29.7% of PDP's votes and 80.2% of APC's votes.

Finally it is important to point out 4 things:
1. In 2011, assuming South West gave 100% of their votes to Buhari's CPC who came second and gave nothing to PDP and other parties, Jonathan's PDP would have still won the election by 6093068 votes.

South West voted 2786417 for PDP, 1369943 for ACN, 321609 to CPC and 30906 for ANPP.

2. In 2015, assuming South West as a region decided not to vote at all, Buhari would have still won by 1989982 votes.

3. In 2015, assuming South West APC decided not to vote, allowing only South West PDP to vote for Jonathan, Buhari would have still won by 138566 votes.

4. Maybe as a result of faulty card reader recorded in the South East and South South during the election, which even caused His Excellency, the former President to try 7 times before been captured, turn out in SE fell from 66.9% in 2011 to 37% in 2015 and turn out in the South South fell from 67% in 2011 to 56% in 2015, while South West got the same turn out as in 2011. In the North, turn out in 2015 was 54.4% in Kebbi, 60% in Zamfara, while Boko Haram infested Borno, Adamawa and Yobe had an average turn out of 41.7%.

Assuming South East and South South alone voted in 2015 the way they did in 2011, with the other 4 regions and FCT voting like they did in 2015, Jonathan would have gotten 16777385 votes, beating Buhari with 1352464 votes.

In summary, experience from 1999 has taught us that South West PDP supporters are mainly Igbos and Niger Deltans, while South West APC (which metamorphosed from ACN) are mainly Yorubas.

Statistics from 2011 Presidential election equally confirms this. In that year, South West as a region alone, fielding a Northerner, Mallam Ribadu running on a Yoruba regional party ACN, gave the party 65.9% of its total vote, while contributing 89% of the Party's votes from the South, while South East and South South provided the other 11%.

Statistics from 2007, when His Excellency, the former Vice President, ran on that platform equally confirms this.

As a result of this, the South West can never offer a bloc vote. Hence, no matter who South West APC vote for, they CAN NEVER influence the outcome of any Presidential election. Their votes are just formalities.

SOURCES:
https://naijagists.com/final-inec-results-of-2015-nigerian-presidential-election-by-state-buhari-wins-21-states-gej-picks-16/

www.nigerianmuse.com/20110419040622zg/sections/general-articles/details-of-2011-presidential-election-results-in-nigeria/

you have killed south west with fact.

Na ontop this matter una (igbo) still dey? Why don’t we leave everything to the electorates and see who comes out tops in 2019?

bloodmoneyspita:
you have killed south west with fact.

This wasn't an attack on SW, but to educate ignorant ones.

Thanks for stopping by.

Alcatraz005:
Na ontop this matter una (igbo) still dey? Why don’t we leave everything to the electorates and see who comes out tops in 2019?

The electorates only speak through statistics.

The above is how they have been speaking since 2011. The only time SW voted for PDP.

SouthEastFacts:

The electorates only speak through statistics.

The above is how they have been speaking since 2011. The only time SW voted for PDP.

Ehn, why can’t we all wait for 2019 to know whether it is igbos that vote more or the Yorubas. The PDP is for Igbos while the APC is for Yorubas. Let us slug it out at the polls and see who wins.

It is just the vibrancy and media that the southwest brings to the table more than the vote counts!
Anyway, 2019 aPC/Buhari will be defeated in 3 clear zones of SS,SE,NC and PDP will have better showing in SW and NE. The NW can do buharideen!

The days of Buhari/apc poverty govt are numbered!

Finally, someone decided to expose the truth which the SW abhors...

Top politicians knew this all along...

Alcatraz005:


Ehn, why can’t we all wait for 2019 to know whether it is igbos that vote more or the Yorubas. The PDP is for Igbos while the APC is for Yorubas. Let us slug it out at the polls and see who wins.

If you like vote for Buhari or Atiku, it will change nothing.

Have you seen the reason PDP returned the National Chairmanship to South South?

The real King Makers are SE and SS, but only when they are fully mobilized, if not NC holds it. NW only vote one side, hence they are held constant in every permutation.

Such reasonableness.

OP thanks for this . These people just cook up lies and believe them. The SW has never been strategic in national elections.

Maybe regional but national no no no!!!

Front page material.
Mod, please, do the needful

I am amazed that South West presented 9 candidates for PDP chairmanship contest in a contest that block votes will matter. They lost and blame every one but themselves.

They did a terrible calculation and should apologize for wrong accusations. South South had only one candidate and followed through.

YourMrBoo:
Finally, someone decided to expose the truth which the SW abhors...

Top politicians knew this all along...

Even Shagari knows this. Check presidential election statistics from 1979.

Buhari is equally aware. Check his running mates in 2003 and 2007, until in 2011 when he got convinced nothing for him in 2011 and 2015.

If not the way, SE was so much into Jonathan those 2 periods, Buhari would have still gone for SE.

SW contributed only 15% of APC's total votes while the North 80%, and yet they are still making noise up and down.

The North that should be making noise aren't.

SouthEastFacts:

Even Shagari knows this. Check presidential election statistics from 1979.

Buhari is equally aware. Check his running mates in 2003 and 2007, until in 2011 when he got convinced nothing for him in 2011 and 2015.

If not the way, SE was so much into Jonathan those 2 periods, Buhari would have still gone for SE.

SW contributed only 15% of APC's total votes while the North 80%, and yet they are still making noise up and down.

The North that should be making noise aren't.

Just take everything easy. It is not a fight. We are developing our region every day and we await the 2019 elections. I don’t know what you seek to achieve with this thread.

Focus on bringing much needed investments to the SE like all other regions are doing.

Don’t kill yourself over Yorubas because the majority of our people don’t even know others exist in Nigeria, we are safely tucked away in our region seeking to aggressively develop it. We are just like the Americans, we don’t know if any other people exist. #friendly advice.

hucienda:
More of these sort of analytical threads where one can draw inferences from based on past trends and historical data.

Good job OP. imo, the swing zone in Nigeria is the middle belt. The other five regions vote the same way as they have in prior elections.

Any idea on the breakdown per region for the 1999, 2003 and 2007 presidential elections?

No.

We decided to do only 2011, because it was the first time SW voted for PDP.

2015 was the height of their political sophistication.

Yes, we shall advise His Excellency accordingly. He should concentrate on NC and NE. NW is a no go area.

For strategy sake, we didn't post the full report, including the recommendations and others.

Don't worry, Atiku is your NEXT! President.

Alcatraz005:


Just take everything easy. It is not a fight. We are developing our region every day and we await the 2019 elections. I don’t know what you seek to achieve with this thread.

Focus on bringing much needed investments to the SE like all other regions are doing.

Don’t kill yourself over Yorubas because the majority of our people don’t even know others exist in Nigeria, we are safely tucked away in our region seeking to aggressively develop it. We are just like the Americans, we don’t know if any other people exist. #friendly advice.

Oga, nobody is fighting here. Just tell your brothers to stop flying with lies.

You just introduced another lie. I shall respond at the appropriate time.

But let me leave you with this fact:

South East is responsible for only 7.8% of the aggregate debts of all the 6 regions and FCT combined.

When compared with the level of capital development going on in the region, SE is the fast developing region.

Just last year alone, just 2 investments attracted to SE worth over 900 billion NGN.

I shall response to you fully soon.

Stay Tuned.

Good Job, OP...

this one na gbedu wey dey burst brain"

you don burst dia brains,lies,propaganda.. told dem dia propaganda is stale..

bro you won't see dem hia.. cowards.
the hate truth die..

Afonja political sophistication my foot..
ignorant humans.. envy..

see as dem insult SE/SS..because say dey lose "chairmanship " n this same humans will tell igbo..to forget presidency.

always giving what dey can't take..

Mtcheeew.. welldone OP.

tuniski:
It is just the vibrancy and media that the southwest brings to the table more than the vote counts!
Anyway, 2019 aPC/Buhari will be defeated in 3 clear zones of SS,SE,NC and PDP will have better showing in SW and NE. The NW can do buharideen!

The days of Buhari/apc poverty govt are numbered!

There is a new PDP media team and a functional Media Office for Atiku led ably by a South Easterner. In the area of South Western propaganda, it had been taken care of.

PDP will clear NE, not because Atiku is from there, but because of what Statistics just made us to see, which we were blind to since.

Just grab your pop corn and watch.

Hmmmm. This guy's got some hard facts. Please gimme more

SouthEastFacts:

This wasn't an attack on SW, but to educate ignorant ones.

Thanks for stopping by.

smh

The kingmakers are the ones crying and shouting marginalization day and night, they want ibo president abi king, but they still cannot perform their kingmaker magic to put ibo man inside Aso Rock.

Shey ibo people are allergic to the kingmaker's magic to land them inside Aso Rock ni?


Look here chest beating ipob, politics in Nigeria is a game of strategy, alliances and common interest, not necessarily about numbers.

Party ticket in Nigeria always = North/SW, North/SS or North SE, never North/North.

The fact that you are kingmakers or whatever ridiculous chest-beating rubbish you call yourself, it doesn't mean you are marketable outside your villages because North/SE, SW/SE, SS/SE are not and never will be a winning ticket.

This is the sad reality for you regardless your number or fake facts.


Nna, go back to the drawing board with your meaningless, irrelevant and half backed analysis.

deomelllo:
The kingmakers are the ones crying and shouting marginalization day and night, they want ibo president abi king, but they still cannot perform their kingmaker magic to put ibo man inside Aso Rock.

Shey ibo people are allergic to the kingmaker's magic to land them inside Aso Rock ni?


Look here chest beating ipob, politics in Nigeria is a game of strategy, alliances and common interest, not necessarily about numbers.

Party ticket in Nigeria always = North/SW, North/SS or North SE, never North/North.

The fact that you are kingmakers or whatever ridiculous chest-beating rubbish you call yourself, it doesn't mean you are marketable outside your villages because North/SE, SW/SE, SS/SE are not and never will be a winning ticket.

This is the sad reality for you regardless your number or fake facts.


Nna, go back to the drawing board with your meaningless, irrelevant and half backed analysis.

You are just talking like a kid.

How old is Nigerian democracy, calculate the number of years Igbos has served at the highest level and compare it with Yoruba's 10 years, which they only got in this 4th Republic.

Where was the Yorubas in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and even before the 1st Republic?

I know you thought Nigerian democracy started from 1999.

The 4th Republic which started from 1999, is just 18 years, and each Region is expected to serve 8 years each.

The fact the Yorubas started first didn't make them special, but to compensate them for watching helplessly as Abiola is sent beyond. Even Obsanjo wasn't their choice. He was imposed on them, forced down their throat because their meaningless votes couldn't influence anything.

Buhari is in power because the NW didn't complete their 8 years, which Yar'Adua started. If not, nothing in this world would have made him President.

Assuming Jonathan ascendance didn't upset the plan, SE should be doing part of their 8 years now.

Nigerian 4th Republic is only 18 years, and you don't expect 6 regions to produce President within those 18 years.

When the time comes, all the whole gods of Yorubaland wouldn't be able to stop Igbo Presidency, talk more of your valueless votes.

Next time, stop commenting like a kid.

This analysis is loaded with assumptions not statistics.

_{In summary, experience from 1999 has taught us that South West PDP supporters are mainly Igbos and Niger Deltans, while South West APC (which metamorphosed from ACN) are mainly Yorubas.}

_{4. Maybe as a result of faulty card reader recorded in the South East and South South during the election, which even caused His Excellency, the former President to try 7 times before been captured,}

^{Assuming South East and South South alone voted in 2015 the way they did in 2011, with the other 4 regions and FCT voting like they did in 2015, Jonathan would have gotten 16777385 votes, beating Buhari with 1352464 votes.}

2019 isn't far anymore as this year is almost over already.

mayorchelsea:
If this be true then,why do the Easterners still crucify the Yorubas as the reasons why Buhari got into office?Or is it safe to say those who knew that even without the votes from the West, Buhari would have still won are hypocrites?2019 isn't far anymore as this year is almost over already.

SW gave Buhari 15.8% of the votes. They didn't make Buhari President. The NC did.

We got this information before the PDP National Convention.

You that can give bloc votes to others, why can't you give yourselves in the East to get presidency?

Why are you asking the man you hate for VP slot before you can vote for him in 2019? Who your bloc votes help arindin

Alariiwo:
You that can give bloc votes to others, why can't you give yourselves in the East to get presidency?

Why are you asking the man you hate for VP slot before you can vote for him in 2019? Who your bloc votes help arindin

We are not faster than our shadow. We are taking things in turn. This democracy is only 18 years and every region can not just produce President within 18 years.

SW was just allowed to take the first turn. Even though SW was entitled to 8 years, but they still had to kneel down to beg Atiku to allow them complete it.

When the time comes, not even your ancestors nor a conclave of all your gods can stop Igbo Presidency.

#Peace

SouthEastFacts:

SW gave Buhari 15.8% of the votes. They didn't make Buhari President. The NC did.

We got this information before the PDP National Convention.

You were just in a haste to reply, very emotional.Now,try to read my comment again and tell me where I disapproved of your figures or claimed The SW made Buhari president.

mayorchelsea:
You were just in a haste to reply, very emotional.Now,try to read my comment again and tell me where I disapproved of your figures or claimed The SW made Buhari president.

Go through the post I quoted. Now carefully. Those statements were implicit.

Great job.

I love a perfectly executed piece like this.