The return of Nigeria's long-absent President Umaru Yar'Adua to the capital city of Abuja in late February has thrown the West African country into a dangerous existential crisis. The president is still apparently incapacitated, but his cadres are certainly not -- and they are doing all they can to remain in power. Yar'Adua's henchmen now threaten not only the constitutional succession process, which had placed provisional powers in the hands of Vice President Goodluck Jonathan, but also Nigeria's very stability. Ethnic violence in the city of Jos broke out in early March amid the current governance vacuum, leaving hundreds dead; worse could follow if the political stalemate isn't resolved soon. The stakes for the country's 150 million people couldn't be higher.

Yar'Adua's inner circle has shown itself quite adept at spreading falsehoods -- misinforming and misleading Nigerians into mass violence if necessary -- to preserve its hold on power. Since the crisis began, the presidency has been framed as if it were a rotating office, traded every eight years between the supposedly Christian South and Muslim North. Yar'Adua's cabal has used this idea to whip up primordial sentiment, persuading the country and the international community of an invented North-South chasm and concealing a selfish agenda under the aegis of preventing a Muslim vs. Christian religious divide. It is a clever ruse to prevent Jonathan (who is from the South) from succeeding Yar'Adua (who hails from the North). And the reduction of Nigeria's complex political problems to such clichés and sound bites, obediently repeated by diplomats and media helps propagate the myth that politics has to be governed by regional rivalries. According to that false tradition, Yar'Adua (or someone from the North) must remain in power.

This is not only disingenuous but dangerous. Since Yar'Adua's return, Jonathan, who became acting president in early February, has faced constant obstruction and undermining by the Yar'Adua cabal. The president's press secretary, for example, has continued to issue his own statements, referring to the acting president not in that role but as vice president. And until their firing last week when Jonathan dissolved the cabinet, Yar'Adua's ministers were fighting tooth and nail to stay in office, clinging to the rents and patronage that came with their posts. Knowing that the law and the Nigerian Constitution were not on their side -- in Nigeria, an ill and incapacitated president must be formally and permanently removed from office through the constitutional process -- their only recourse was the age-old yet often effective strategy of playing off North-South tensions.

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More,  As a result, politics in Nigeria have come to a dangerous standstill. The nascent amnesty deal in the Niger Delta has failed to progress, and the rebel group the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta has carried out several "warning" attacks. The 2010 budget was delayed three months and only recently passed. Civil servants are threatening to go on strike. And electoral reform, promised three years ago after flawed 2007 elections has hardly budged. Protesters marched in Abuja March 31 to demand the current electoral commission chairman not be reappointed. Things have gotten so bad that Nigerians are finally taking to the streets, demanding an end to the succession battle and a return of attention to the business of actually governing Nigeria. (Finally, the Senate just approved Jonathan's cabinet nominees.)

There is also a more direct human cost to all this; look no further than Jos, where the perpetrators of the recent violence took advantage of the power vacuum presented by the current political struggle. These ethnic militias, like much of Nigeria, assume that the president is permanently incapacitated; were he not, would he have snuck into Abuja as he did? Yar'Adua returned not with a homecoming parade, but with an unauthorized military deployment in the middle of the night.

The political mayhem and the ethnic tensions fomented by the Yar'Adua faction have pushed Nigeria closer than ever either to a repeat of the country's 1967-1970 civil war, in which the southern Biafra region sought to secede, or the return of military intervention. In pushing so hard on the North-South divide, Yar'Adua's supporters risk creating a self-fulfilling prophecy; if regions are told they will be the "losers" of a constitutional transition, they might pick up arms to defend their position. Military leaders resolutely believe in the integrity of the Nigerian state, so if the country were to approach the brink of disintegration, they would likely step in. Goodbye, Nigerian democracy.

What's needed now is a clean sweep of the administration to remove potential troublemakers, which Jonathan has begun with his cabinet shuffle. But the first matter to address is a comprehensive and public assessment of Yar'Adua's health and his ability to carry out the duties of his office. This is an area on which the international community must come to Nigeria's assistance with any intelligence gathered from Yar'Adua's three-month hospital stay in Saudi Arabia.

From there, what's needed is the strict observance of the constitutional succession process to lawfully replace the ailing president with the acting president, as established under Section 144 of the Nigerian Constitution. This requires the cabinet to pass a resolution with a two-thirds majority affirming the president's inability to govern, a confirmation by a medical board appointed by the Senate president, and the swearing-in of the acting president as substantive president of Nigeria. If this process is manipulated or obstructed by Yar'Adua's loyalists, the two houses of the National Assembly must remove the president through impeachment for gross misconduct, incompetence, abuse, and corruption in the discharge of his office. The grounds for doing so are clear: Yar'Adua's supporters have refused to allow an independent medical assessment of his condition, and the president, if he is conscious, has failed to transfer the powers of his office to Jonathan, in contravention of the law.

Nigeria needs political support, partnership, and encouragement to undergo this existential challenge -- and understandably perhaps, we have exhausted the patience of many of our people and allies. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Johnnie Carson already gave an early indication of American support for a constitutional transition in a Feb. 24 statement: "We hope that President Yar'Adua's return to Nigeria is not an effort by his senior advisers to upset Nigeria's stability and create renewed uncertainty in the democratic process." Similar statements from British, Canadian, and EU officials have been helpful in strengthening the acting president. More of this support from the international community is needed.

But we all need to use a fresh lens when looking at Nigeria. Backroom deals in which political elites negotiate the fate of Nigeria's 150 million people are a relic of the past -- or they should be. The North-South power rotation, or "zoning" arrangement, that pretends to offer stability to Nigeria's ethnically diverse population has morphed into a convenient justification for self-centered politicians.

Nigeria is too big and has too much going for it to be allowed to fail. Despite the political crisis, the green shoots of real democracy are appearing across the country. Some state governors, such as Raji Fashola of Lagos and Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers are beginning to deliver services to the people. Civil society is stronger than ever, empowered through new technologies, including text-messaging and social-media organizing. The international community must respond to what Nigeria could be -- and not remain captive to memories of its recent past. Nigerians must not be constrained by those who have a vested interest in the old way of doing business.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/04/01/time_for_a_new_nigerian_president

Why is El Rufai calling for a new President at this point in time? GJ is acting President with full presidential powers and the next presidential election is slated for 2011 or shortly thereafter, so this call by El Rufai is senseless. Rufai appears to be oblivious to the political system in Nigeria and this ignorance may account for the currentg troubles he has with the law.

Our best bet is to allow GJ to continue as acting President until the next election. El Rufai's analysis is flawed in this case. Any attempt to remove Yar'Adua from office at this point will lead to more instability and danger.

new president ko, new emperor ni.

ndu_chucks:

Why is El Rufai calling for a new President at this point in time? GJ is acting President with full presidential powers and the next presidential election is slated for 2011 or shortly thereafter, so this call by El Rufai is senseless. Rufai appears to be oblivious to the political system in Nigeria and this ignorance may account for the currentg troubles he has with the law.

Our best bet is to allow GJ to continue as acting President until the next election. El Rufai's analysis is flawed in this case. Any attempt to remove Yar'Adua from office at this point will lead to more instability and danger.

new president ko, new emperor ni.

If Yar Adua is removed, nothing will happen.

ndu_chucks:

Why is El Rufai calling for a new President at this point in time? GJ is acting President with full presidential powers and the next presidential election is slated for 2011 or shortly thereafter, so this call by El Rufai is senseless. Rufai appears to be oblivious to the political system in Nigeria and this ignorance may account for the currentg troubles he has with the law.

Our best bet is to allow GJ to continue as acting President until the next election. El Rufai's analysis is flawed in this case. Any attempt to remove Yar'Adua from office at this point will lead to more instability and danger.

new president ko, new emperor ni.

It will be worth reading the article first before commenting. Your response shows you have not.

Thanks

Beaf:

If Yar Adua is removed, nothing will happen.

Exactly!!!!!!

Nothing go happen, the country belongs to 150 million people not any single fellow, it has to be governed by rules rhymes and rythm.

El-Rufai was right. The current status quo in unconstitutional. You can't have an indefinite Acting President and a Substantive President who is invisible.
There is no provision for such arrangement in the constitution.

mikeansy:

It will be worth reading the article first before commenting. Your response shows you have not.

Thanks

I reads the article. I believe it is designed for the consumption of Americans and its basically a PR mechanism for El Rufai.

El Rufai did not write about any new issue, everything he talked about is well known to us.  The title of the article "Time for a New Nigerian President" represents his main point which he supported with various common knowledge.  He is dead wrong to conclude that we need a new president now.  Why?? We have Jonathan!

so you don't know the difference between having a President and having an acting President acting for someone unseen?

Beaf:

If Yar Adua is removed, nothing will happen.

That's a big "IF".  I wonder why he has not yet been removed. You people sound quite naive to me - you should have known by now that, GJ and the powers that be, have made deals that will prevent the impeachment of Yardy. If you don't believe that, then you are quite ignorant of the Nigerian political climate.

mikeansy:

so you don't know the difference between having a President and having an acting President acting for someone unseen?

You are missing the point buddy! Jonathan has full presidential executive powers. I suspect you wouldn't mind rocking the boat so that Jonathan is called the President. Please tell me what difference that would make, at this point in time. 2011 is just arround the corner.

ndu_chucks:

That's a big "IF".  I wonder why he has not yet been removed. You people sound quite naive to me - you should have known by now that, GJ and the powers that be, have made deals that will prevent the impeachment of Yardy. If you don't believe that, then you are quite ignorant of the Nigerian political climate.

Can you advice us why the deal did not involve sustaining the FEC as it is which more than anything were simply protecting Yardy's interest.

I think the naive one here is the man who believe's in a myth.

Who are the powers that be anyway? A group of folks who majority of them do actually want Yar'dy's job?

All progressives in the Muslim part of North have a choice to follow progressives like El-Rufai lets all move this country forward or risk being left behind.

ndu_chucks:

That's a big "IF".  I wonder why he has not yet been removed. You people sound quite naive to me - you should have known by now that, GJ and the powers that be, have made deals that will prevent the impeachment of Yardy. If you don't believe that, then you are quite ignorant of the Nigerian political climate.

Politics is a flowing river. If Jonathan made deals with people, they have been kicked out of govt (quite unceremonously too); so what is left of those "deals"?
Everything comes in its own time. The only calculation is the army, the cabal has absolutely nothing else to bargain with. . . But Jonathan can checkmate that with a little ingenuity, then the big "IF" would become a nonexistent "if".

Jonathan has the right temperament and approach to confound the cabals for centuries.

mikeansy:

Can you advice us why the deal did not involve sustaining the FEC as it is which more than anything were simply protecting Yardy's interest.

I think the naive one here is the man who believe's in a myth.

Who are the powers that be anyway? A group of folks who majority of them do actually want Yar'dy's job?

All progressives in the Muslim North have a choice to follow progressives like El-Rufai lets all move this country forward or risk being left behind.

I will remind you in a few months that Yar'Adua has not been impeached.  You think the "powers that be" is a myth? Ok o. I don hear.

Nduchucks, you are deliberately missing the point. We have 2 presidents, The doctrine of expediency that NASS used was expedient but  cowardly and wrong. The patriotic course of action in the circumstances we found ourselves was impeachment.

Beaf:

Politics is a flowing river. If Jonathan made deals with people, they have been kicked out of govt (quite unceremonously too); so what is left of those "deals"?
Everything comes in its own time. The only calculation is the army, the cabal has absolutely nothing else to bargain with. . . But Jonathan can checkmate that with a little ingenuity, then the big "IF" would become a nonexistent "if".

Jonathan has the right temperament and approach to confound the cabals for centuries.

I partially agree with your statements. Jonathan is uniquely positioned to checkmate the "cabal" but I don't believe he is that adventurous and power hungry.  If his list of ministers is anything to go by, there will be no checkmating of the cabal. Yardy will remain in the whitehouse (aso rock) until further notice. As long as Bankole and David Mark still hold their powers, there will be no impeachment. Trust me on this.

^^^^^ Wrong and what are you scared of? David mark and Bankole are no longer on any yaradua team. The same Bankole that said yaradua govt has been corrupt duplicating the same contracts or the David mark that supported Goodluck and even Dora?

The so called powers that be (better known as the cabal) will be replaced by young progressive Northerners like El-Rufai, Ribadu, Umar etc
The "powers that be" in the likes of Tanko Yakasai will see jail or irrelevance.

Bankole has even switched sides to Jonathan and also David mark.

SapeleGuy:

Nduchucks, you are deliberately missing the point. We have 2 presidents, The doctrine of expediency that NASS used was expedient but  cowardly and wrong. The patriotic course of action in the circumstances we found ourselves was impeachment.

If you go back and read my posts, I supported Yardy's impeachment.  Once he was "returned" to Nigeria, and it became clear that the man needs to be given an opportunity to heal, it became pointless to me to impeach him. We all should get the man, our sick President, the best possible health care.

GJ has all the powers he needs to perform presidential duties. Why rock the boat now with an impeachment proceeding? Let GJ focus on more important issued abeg.

ndu_chucks:

If you go back and read my posts, I supported Yardy's impeachment.  Once he was "returned" to Nigeria, and it became clear that the man needs to be given an opportunity to heal, it became pointless to me to impeach him. We all should get the man, our sick President, the best possible health care.

GJ has all the powers he needs to perform presidential duties. Why rock the boat now with an impeachment proceeding? Let GJ focus on more important issued abeg.

The boat will not be rocked, the alledged presence of Yardy is haunting Goodluck. We all wish him a speedy recovery but nobody should be bigger than the country or the constitution. If you want to defeat tribalism, we need to accept that we are all equal in the eyes of the law.

SapeleGuy:

The boat will not be rocked, the alledged presence of Yardy is haunting Goodluck. We all wish him a speedy recovery but nobody should be bigger than the country or the constitution. If you want to defeat tribalism, we need to accept that we are all equal in the eyes of the law.

Does providing the best health care for your President mean that he is bigger than the constitution?   This is not about tribalism! Our president is ill and he deserves to be treated with compassion. What are his impeacheable crimes at the moment - being ill? Have you written to your Rep or Senator urging them to start impeachment proceedings? If so, what were their responses to your request?

ndu_chucks:

Does providing the best health care for your President mean that he is bigger than the constitution? This is not about tribalism! Our president is ill and he deserves to be treated with compassion. What are his impeacheable crimes at the moment - being ill? Have you written to your Rep or Senator urging them to start impeachment proceedings? If so, what were their responses to your request?

who says the only way he can get the best health care and treated with compassion is to criminally sustain him as the President against the provisions of the constitution?

mikeansy:

who says the only way he can get the best health care and treated with compassion is to criminally sustain him as the President against the provisions of the constitution?

Criminally sustain him as the President against provisions of the constitution? What part of the constitution states that a sick president must give up his office?

You stand a better chance arguing that the the conferring of the Action President position with executive powers to GJ is unconstitutional?

ndu_chucks:

Criminally sustain him as the President against provisions of the constitution? What part of the constitution states that a sick president must give up his office?

You stand a better chance arguing that the the conferring of the Action President position with executive powers to GJ is unconstitutional?

Try your luck at spin with someone else, I am no kid at it either.

Section 144 demands the FEC declare the President incapacitated if he is. Anything contrary to that is criminal. Refusal to adhere to the provisions of this section of the constitution and by so doing sustaining an incapacitated man in power is criminal sustainance.

ndu_chucks:

I partially agree with your statements. Jonathan is uniquely positioned to checkmate the "cabal" but I don't believe he is that adventurous and power hungry.  If his list of ministers is anything to go by, there will be no checkmating of the cabal. Yardy will remain in the whitehouse (aso rock) until further notice. As long as Bankole and David Mark still hold their powers, there will be no impeachment. Trust me on this.

The highlighted point is what has gotten Jonathan this far. People underestimate the man, like you have just done.  Wait until inauguration day May 29 2011, then come back and tell me he is not Adventurous. There is no politician that doesn't have some appetite for power.

David Mark has always been with Jonathan thru OBJ. They very moment the trio of OBJ, TY and David Mark decide its time to let go of Yar Adua, the impeachment would take place.

---

The main reason Yar Adua has to be let off is the occupation of Aso Rock. This might sound absurd but it is a vital point that many people don't look into.
The security in Aso Rock is currently manned by loyalists to Yar Adua. That way, Jonathan's safety, to a large extent is actually in the hands of people who have every reason to hate him.

If Jonathan must take strong actions which are needed for the progress of this country, his safety must first be guaranteed by any means possible. There is no need leaving Yar Adua in Aso Rock because even if he gets well soonest, I don't think Nigerians would accept him as their leader any longer. We are soo done with the Yar Adua presidency.

if anyone ran away after leaving office just to avoid accountability, that one is not worthy to serve in any capacity in this country.
if anyone is calling for el rufai's return to power in nigeria, that one is either mad or uninformed.

ndu_chucks:

Does providing the best health care for your President mean that he is bigger than the constitution?   This is not about tribalism! Our president is ill and he deserves to be treated with compassion. What are his impeacheable crimes at the moment - being ill? Have you written to your Rep or Senator urging them to start impeachment proceedings? If so, what were their responses to your request?

The impeachable crime is going absent without leave, i don't understand why you turn a blind eye to this.

They say the road to hell is paved with good intentions. This your Florence Nightingale sentiment is destroying the fabric of this nation. As we have discussed previously 'Aso Rock no be hospital'

This illegality sets a dangerous precedent. My rep by the way has been doing his job, the sinator nah different matter.

SapeleGuy:

The impeachable crime is going absent without leave, i don't understand why you turn a blind eye to this.

They say the road to hell is paved with good intentions. This your Florence Nightingale sentiment is destroying the fabric of this nation. As we have discussed previously 'Aso Rock no be hospital'

This illegality sets a dangerous precedent. My rep by the way has been doing his job, the sinator nah different matter.

Who be your rep? Obahiagbon? Gramma aside he is the only one who seems to always stand for the truth against all odds