elninosanz:

There is a lot of armchair analysis being done without any data, historical context or empirical election modelling. I have done the empirical analysis and looked at historical data and voting patterns. This election will be based on 2 things turnout and organizational/Party structure. Consider the following.

1. Atiku's power base is the South East and South South. Do you know that despite the love for their brother Jonathan only 35% of them came out to vote. Do you also know that LESS Ibo's registered for this election than the last election. Do you also know that the South East has the LOWEST number of registered voters in Nigeria. If 35% of Igbos come out to vote like the last election ( and this is likely to be lower because no one can convince me that Igbos will be more excited about Atiku than Jonathan) and Atiku gets 95% of those 35% that come out to vote then he will have only 2.3 million votes. In 2011 Jonathan had 22.5 million voted and in 2015 Buhari had 15.4 million votes to win. If we are to assume that Atiku needs a similar number to win the election then 2.3 million from his biggest base is not enough.

2. We all know that the South West will be a hotly contested battleground. Do you know that in 2015 the South West had the LOWEST turnout of all the 6 regions with 31%. That means that only 31% of registered voters came out to vote. And this was in an election where people where excited about Change. The truth is that the upper class and the elite middle class DON'T vote in the South West. How many of us can spend 1 hour in the sun for Accreditation, wait for the ballot boxes and tools to come and then wait for another 2 -4 hours to vote. Unfortunately for Atiku this is his voting block. APC is in firm control of the South West and you can be rest assured that they will spare no expense to ensure that the lower class vote for Buhari. Don't also discount the fact that they have the rigging apparatus in place. Note also that despite the huge sums of money Jonathan spent in 2015 to different Obas, OPC, Church leaders and all. Buhari still won by a 14% margin ( 57%-43%). Can Atiku match the money spent by Jonathan to achieve that 43%. Is he likeable enough to inspire Middle class South Westerners to come and vote for him. I am not so sure

3. In terms of raw numbers, the South South represents a great opportunity for vote pickup for Atiku. With the exception of Edo, PDP is in charge of the region. Jonathan won here with a staggering 92% of the votes. And this region had the highest Turnout rate at 55%. Despite the fact that Atiku is not the son of the soil like Jonathan is, I expect him to come close to Jonathan's performance either by hook or by crook. He will likely replicate the 92-7 winning margin. However can he get a 55% Turnout rate. Also note that voters that registered in 2019 are about 1.5 million LESS than 2015. Atiku has to ensure high turnout and an even higher margin than 2015

4. I truly believe that this election will be decided by how much Buhari wins the Core North(North West and North East). He won a staggering 81% of the votes from this 2 regions with a total of 9,963,877. That's almost 10 million votes. So he won almost 67% of his votes total from these regions. Note that the North West had the second largest turnout rate with almost 50%. Can Buhari replicate this figures? Are Northerners still mad about him despite poor performance? Does Atiku have enough clout to make a dent? History suggests Atiku can do much. The Core North has been voting for Buhari since 2003. I don't think that will change. My model says Atiku has to win 35% of the Code North to win. Can Tambuwal and Dankwambo deliver Sokoto and Gombe? Well Kwakwanso even 30% of the votes in Kano? Will the Sokoto Caliphates anger with how Buhari treated Dasuki their son turn to votes? Atiku has a lot of work to do to curry the favour of the Northern elite.

5. The North Central is another Battleground region. Jonathan lost here but 18% points(59-41). What made it truly shocking was that Jonathan spent a lot of money here and PDP was in control of the region. This should have been a Buhari region. Unfortunately having been ravaged by Fulani Herdsman even battling Atiku to a 50% draw will be tough. He won Niger by over 80% in 2015 amd can replicate that, but it will be in tough everywhere else. The good news is that there are APC Governors in Kogi, Niger, Nassarawa and Plateau. Can their structures help Buhari?. Only time will tell.

My model says that Buhari wins (if the turnout rate in the last election stays the same) if he wins the North Best and North East by 75%-25%, Wins the South West by 60% - 40%. Takes Atiku to a 50% draw in the North Central. And loses the South East and South South by 95% to Atiku with only 5% to Buhari.



cc Lalasticlala, Mynd44

Buhari was voted because of his sham integrity chants and corruption fighting scam which he already failed in.

Buhari doesn't even have anything to campaign with except that Atiku is corrupt.

Under Buhari's watch, thousands of Nigerians were killed by Soldiers via operation python dance and herdsmen crises.

A lot of Nigerians have seen through the fake Mr integrity and are tired of his lifelessness too. He will be rejected at the polls next year.

Just so you know, GEJ had the cash and every resources to win in 2015 but what happened? The people rejected him.

Nemesis001:

Your analysis is trash.

Buhari was voted because of his sham integrity chants and corruption fighting scam which he already failed in.

Buhari doesn't even have anything to campaign with except that Atiku is corrupt.

Under Buhari's watch, thousands of Nigerians were killed by Soldiers via operation python dance and herdsmen crises.

A lot of Nigerians have seen through the fake Mr integrity and are tired of his lifelessness too. He will be rejected at the polls next year.

Just so you know, GEJ had the cash and every resources to win in 2015 but what happened? The people rejected him.

ashacot:
Intelligent analyses

elninosanz:



Before calling me analysis trash, refute anything i said.I am not been sentimental, only being realistic. I am not a Buhari enthusiast, neither am i an APC member. I am only calling out things like i see them. We all know that Buhari has not performed, but in Nigeria, turnout and Party Structure matters. Large portions NW and NE are very pro-Buhari despite his none performance. He is a cult-like figure there. I have been to Kano,Katsina and Kaduna during his tenure, and nothing i have seen convinces me otherwise. APC has a strong stranglehold on the SW, and those that support Atiku won't vote. A NW, NE, SW coalition is enough for Buhari to win.

Nemesis001:

Abeg stop that rubbish cult like followership nonsense. Why didn't he win the 3 times he contested?

Check :
1. In 2011, only SW's election turn out was below the national average.

2. In the same year, out of all the votes casted in the South, Sw contributed 28% while SS/SE contributed 72%.

3. Of the votes that went for PDP from the South, SW contributed only 20% even though they voted heavily for PDP that same year while SE/SS contributed the other 80%.

4. Of all the total votes PDP got in that election, SW contibuted 12%, SE/SS gave 50% and the entire North (NE, NW, NC) gave 38%.

5. SW gave 60% of all their votes to PDP, SE gave 98% while SS gave 96%.
This is for 2011.

In 2015:
1. APC won SW with 580k votes while PDP won Anambra alone with 660k votes thereby nullifying SW votes by over 78k votes.

2. SW voted 43% for PDP, SE voted 93% for PDP while SS voted 92%. The SW 43% votes came mostly from Igbo dominated areas of SW.

3. SW contributed only 16% of APC votes while SE/SE contributed 56% of PDP's vote while the North contributed 80.2% of APC's vote with Middlebelt delivering the killer punch.

This is just for 2015. Continue to see what SW wouldn't want you to know.

elninosanz:


You have not negated any of my points. We are actually saying the same thing.

The question is Buhari won about 80% of the NW and NE votes in 2015. For Atiku to win, he needs to bring that figure down to anything between 60-65%. He also needs to hold Buhari to a 50% draw in the South West. Can he do any of those 2 things? i doubt it. However, only time will tell.

Atiku will win SE/SS which voting strength is more than the whole of South West combined.

Atiku will get up to 40% in South West because 40% of those staying there are combination of Igbos, Middle belts, SS, Fulanis and PDP have been getting sizeable votes from the region since 2003.

Atiku will surely win his North East.

Middle Belts will support Atiku because of herdsmen killings and marginalization by core Northern states. Don't forget IBB, TY Danjuma factors too.

Buhari can rig the rest. Hope you know that the same Sharia council that endorsed Buhari are now behind Atiku?

Shiites are already against him. Those who endorsed Buhari are already tired of his lifelessness.

elninosanz:



Before calling me analysis trash, refute anything i said.I am not been sentimental, only being realistic. I am not a Buhari enthusiast, neither am i an APC member. I am only calling out things like i see them. We all know that Buhari has not performed, but in Nigeria, turnout and Party Structure matters. Large portions NW and NE are very pro-Buhari despite his none performance. He is a cult-like figure there. I have been to Kano,Katsina and Kaduna during his tenure, and nothing i have seen convinces me otherwise. APC has a strong stranglehold on the SW, and those that support Atiku won't vote. A NW, NE, SW coalition is enough for Buhari to win.

genternity:
South East=97%
South South=84%
South West=40%
North West=30%
North East=65%
Middle Belt=70%
I hereby declare Atiku the President of Nigeria IPODDS come 2019...
Never again will am illitrate,religion,ethnic bigot rule this great country 'NIGERIA'

famology:
This is the most detailed and dispassionate analysis I've seen here.My observation based on interactions with people so far suggests that there will be apathy leading to low voters turn out,because a lot of people don't like the both candidate. So I'm expecting a lower turn out compared to 2015.

Nemesis001:
The Insight:

1. If SW had given all their votes to Buhari in 2011, Jonathan would have still won. So in 2011, SW votes couldn't have make any difference.

2[b]. In 2015, if SW had boycotted the entire election, Buhari would have still won, but if SE had boycotted the election, it would have been a landslide win for Buhari.

3. If Yoruba backed APC had boycotted the election leaving Igbo backed PDP to vote, Buhari would have still won this means that SW APC's votes can't make any difference.

4. If the card reader malfunction didn't disenfranchise SE/SS and their turnout was like that of 2011 and other previous elections before 2015 and other regions voted for Buhari massively like they did, Jonathan would have won the election by 1.6 million votes.

Finally, under a free and fair election, SW APC can never match Ndi Igbo nationwide. South West voting strength is overrated.[/b]

Nemesis001:

You seem confused.

Atiku will win SE/SS which voting strength is more than the whole of South West combined.

Atiku will get up to 40% in South West because 40% of those staying there are combination of Igbos, Middle belts, SS, Fulanis and PDP have been getting sizeable votes from the region since 2003.

Atiku will surely win his North East.

Middle Belts will support Atiku because of herdsmen killings and marginalization by core Northern states. Don't forget IBB, TY Danjuma factors too.

Buhari can rig the rest. Hope you know that the same Sharia council that endorsed Buhari are now behind Atiku?

Shiites are already against him. Those who endorsed Buhari are already tired of his lifelessness.

Linzo:

What dispassionate analysis are you talking about? When the op outrightly remove the fact that Atiku is also a northern and Muslim. How on earth will somebody make analysis that Buhari will win Atiku in Adamawa? Or in Taraba and in Gombe . Buhari will win most core northern States but with less margin eg sokoto, kano, Kaduna. The state of Niger and Plateau may go 50:50, Bauchi may also go 35:65 in favor of APC. Saying Buhari will win Atiku in North is mere illusion

Nemesis001:

Abeg stop that rubbish cult like followership nonsense. Why didn't he win the 3 times he contested?

Check :
1. In 2011, only SW's election turn out was below the national average.

2. In the same year, out of all the votes casted in the South, Sw contributed 28% while SS/SE contributed 72%.

3. Of the votes that went for PDP from the South, SW contributed only 20% even though they voted heavily for PDP that same year while SE/SS contributed the other 80%.

4. Of all the total votes PDP got in that election, SW contibuted 12%, SE/SS gave 50% and the entire North (NE, NW, NC) gave 38%.

5. SW gave 60% of all their votes to PDP, SE gave 98% while SS gave 96%.
This is for 2011.

In 2015:
1. APC won SW with 580k votes while PDP won Anambra alone with 660k votes thereby nullifying SW votes by over 78k votes.

2. SW voted 43% for PDP, SE voted 93% for PDP while SS voted 92%. The SW 43% votes came mostly from Igbo dominated areas of SW.

3. SW contributed only 16% of APC votes while SE/SE contributed 56% of PDP's vote while the North contributed 80.2% of APC's vote with Middlebelt delivering the killer punch.

This is just for 2015. Continue to see what SW wouldn't want you to know.

elninosanz:



Before calling me analysis trash, refute anything i said.I am not been sentimental, only being realistic. I am not a Buhari enthusiast, neither am i an APC member. I am only calling out things like i see them. We all know that Buhari has not performed, but in Nigeria, turnout and Party Structure matters. Large portions NW and NE are very pro-Buhari despite his none performance. He is a cult-like figure there. I have been to Kano,Katsina and Kaduna during his tenure, and nothing i have seen convinces me otherwise. APC has a strong stranglehold on the SW, and those that support Atiku won't vote. A NW, NE, SW coalition is enough for Buhari to win.

Linzo:

What dispassionate analysis are you talking about? When the op outrightly remove the fact that Atiku is also a northern and Muslim. How on earth will somebody make analysis that Buhari will win Atiku in Adamawa? Or in Taraba and in Gombe . Buhari will win most core northern States but with less margin eg sokoto, kano, Kaduna. The state of Niger and Plateau may go 50:50, Bauchi may also go 35:65 in favor of APC. Saying Buhari will win Atiku in North is mere illusion

Nemesis001:

Abeg stop that rubbish cult like followership nonsense. Why didn't he win the 3 times he contested?

Check :
1. In 2011, only SW's election turn out was below the national average.

2. In the same year, out of all the votes casted in the South, Sw contributed 28% while SS/SE contributed 72%.

3. Of the votes that went for PDP from the South, SW contributed only 20% even though they voted heavily for PDP that same year while SE/SS contributed the other 80%.

4. Of all the total votes PDP got in that election, SW contibuted 12%, SE/SS gave 50% and the entire North (NE, NW, NC) gave 38%.

5. SW gave 60% of all their votes to PDP, SE gave 98% while SS gave 96%.
This is for 2011.

In 2015:
1. APC won SW with 580k votes while PDP won Anambra alone with 660k votes thereby nullifying SW votes by over 78k votes.

2. SW voted 43% for PDP, SE voted 93% for PDP while SS voted 92%. The SW 43% votes came mostly from Igbo dominated areas of SW.

3. SW contributed only 16% of APC votes while SE/SE contributed 56% of PDP's vote while the North contributed 80.2% of APC's vote with Middlebelt delivering the killer punch.

This is just for 2015. Continue to see what SW wouldn't want you to know.

genternity:
South East=97%
South South=84%
South West=40%
North West=30%
North East=65%
Middle Belt=70%
I hereby declare Atiku the President of Nigeria come 2019...
Never again will am illitrate,religion,ethnic bigot rule this great country 'NIGERIA'

Omon605:




My Brother relax you won't see those figures you are quoting again because rigging won't happen this time. Am from South South, Edo to be specific and I know how those figures you are quoting come about. We don't come out to vote from the south simply because most of us have no interest in the election but the North see vote as part of there life. If we are able to encourage ourselves to come out and vote it will be fine. I live in the north, for each poll until the can register between 60-90% turnout why the south is between 20-40%. Which means for Atiku to win the he needs to get at least 40% of the total vote cast in the North, anything short of that, his gone.