In the 2015 presidential elections, the PDP lost to the APC in what seemed like a progressive movement to change Nigeria from the old ways to the new way. The APC rode on the wave of their anti-corruption promise and the change mantra. But, did Nigerians actually voted for change? The facts says otherwise.

In the 2015 general elections, the numbers proved that Nigerians continued to vote along Ethnic lines.

Let's take a look at the 2015 election results again. By geopolitical zones:

South-East: APC - 196,248 (7.29%) PDP - 2,464,906 (90.63%) - Winner: PDP

South-West: APC - 2,433,193 (55.7%) PDP - 1,821,416 (41.75%) - Winner: APC

South-South: APC - 418,590 (8.1%) PDP - 4,714,725 (91.22%) - Winner: PDP

Total South Votes: APC - 3,050,031 (24.9%) PDP - 9,001,047 (73.47%) - Winner PDP



North-West: APC - 7,115,199 (83.65%) PDP - 1,339,709 (15.75%) - Winner: APC

North-East: APC - 2,848,678 (77.57%) PDP - 796,588 (21.69) - Winner: APC

North-Central: APC - 2,264,614 (58.79%) PDP - 1,558,623 (40.46%) - Winner: APC

Total North Votes APC - 12,228,491 (76.28%) PDP - 3,694,920 (23.05%) - Winner: APC


FCT: APC - 146,399 (47.72%) PDP - 157,196 (23.05%) - Winner: PDP


Total Votes across all zones: APC - 15,424,921 (53.95%) PDP - 12,853,162 (44.96%)


With the APC fielding a Northerner in Muhammadu Buhari and the PDP fielding a Southerner in Goodluck Jonathan, the North voted for their own while the south voted for their own.

PDP's only defeat in the South was as a result of APC fielding Prof. Yemi Osinbajo of the South-West, but even at that, the margin wasn't much due to the large number of Igbo voters living across the whole Southern region.

For the 2019 elections, the cards are now even, with the PDP fielding a Northerner in Atiku Abubakar to go head to head with another Northerner, the incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari. Both Hausa-fulani Descents. The battle line is drawn.


PDP will always win the South

Even with APC's change movement, they couldn't win the South, which houses some of the most educated people in Nigeria. Even the APC's victory in the South-west wasn't as convincing as expected. Now, after three and half years into PMB's tenure, the South-west are now wiser and beginning to realign with the group most likely to bring the much needed economic growth and restructuring we all crave. My inference is that the PDP will win the South again, but this time, with a wider margin.


The Igbos are not politically irrelevant afterall

Contrary to the belief that the Igbos are politically irrelevant when it comes to voting and making decisive electoral decisions, the reverse is the case here. With more Igbos living in other regions than their own, due to business pursuits and their love for migration and cultural exploration, the Igbos have the numbers to affect political issues in other regions other than their own. A look at the last elections comes to mind, with the PDP sweeping almost all the votes in the Southern region where Igbo are predominant. Even with the APC's media bastardization of the then Goodluck Jonathan, and their almost convincing promise of Change and anti-corruption, the APC still lost heavily across the south in 2015.


Nigerians will always vote along Ethnic lines

Forget the sweet political talks and manifestos that are being bombarded into the media, Nigerians are natively tribalistic. From the last elections, you would see that the South-west voted for Prof. Yemi Osinbajo, the SS and SE voted for GEJ instead of Buhari, and the North voted for Buhari instead of GEJ.

Don't be deceived that the APC won the last elections due to Nigerians wanting change. No. the APC won due to their political permutation and combination. In 2015, the elections was about the North vs the South, and the North won due to their larger population. In 2019, the political combination for both parties will be equal - this time, the North vs the North - and we will see Nigerians showing their true colors and voting along ethnic lines, again.


The Battle is in the North

With the South already settled for the PDP, the real battle will be in convincing the North to reject one of their own. With PMB and Atiku being of the same Hausa-fulani descent, they would both have to dig deep to convince the Northern electorates that they have the best plan for the North.

Will the North believe in Atiku's restructuring plan? I don't think so. Will the North believe in PMB's passivity and blame game? I don't think so. Both candidates would have to find a stronger reason backed with a Northern agenda to pull crowds in the North especially in the North-west which houses the highest number of voting population in Nigeria.


The PDP needs only 40% of Northern votes to win

With Atiku picking Peter Obi as his Vice for next year's general elections, we can conclude that the PDP will sweep almost all the votes in the South. All said and done, the PDP would need to up their game in the North. Now fielding a Norther instead of a Southerner, the job will become really easy for the PDP to garner enough Northern votes.

With PMB winning the last elections by only 2.5 million votes, the PDP has a chance to topple that margin. If Atiku can get only 40% of the North's total 16 million votes, which is only 6.4 million (I think he could get even much more), then the PDP will be cruising.


Conclusion: I believe the PDP will clear the Southern votes again, just like in 2015 when their rating was lowest. I also believe Atiku will get over 45% of the Northern votes if he plays to the tune of the Northern agenda. With this, I see the PDP winning the 2019 Presidential election.


This is my personal analysis and I owe no one any explanation.
Copyright 2018. Nairaland.com/slimdoug

cc: lalasticlala

Points You Should Have Considered But Cleverly Left Out:

1. 2015: PDP Had The War Chest, To Sustain The Electioneering Campaign, Where They Couldn't Reach, They Bought With Money...Example South West.

Whereas in the race to the 2019 now, there are no Dasuki, No CBN, No Mmadueke, No INEC To Help Them. In fact PDP will not have polling AGENTS in many polling units in the North West and South West.

2. While Buhari's Northern 12 Million Votes are still intact, that cannot be said of the PDP in the South.
In the South West, PDP Is virtually Dead, In fact I am yet to see any sign of PDP presence in Lagos few months to the General election, unlike in 2015.

In The South South: Unless you want to continue living in fool's paradise, you may want to be realistic, That An Amaechi With The Federal Power in Rivers, An Akpabio With The Federal Power in Akwa Ibom, An Ogboru With Federal Power In Delta, An Oshiomole As An APC Chairman From Edo, Will hurt PDP badly in the South South.

3. In The South East 2015, APC had no Minister, No Ambassador, No Board Member etc. Now can you honestly say, the result of the South East will be the same as in 2015?

4. Do you think some ambitious Southerners would want power to remain in North for 12 Years?

5. In 2015, there was a semblance of unity within the South, until Nnamdi unguarded utterances shattered everything.
Now do you honestly believe Yoruba votes will be divided in 2019, when their Son will be competing with an Igbo candidate?


Abeg go back to sleep.

Buhari will win next year's election by a landslide. Ethnicity and religion determines election in Nigeria for now.

Slimdoug:
In the 2015 presidential elections, the PDP lost to the APC in what seemed like a progressive movement to change Nigeria from the old ways to the new way. The APC rode on the wave of their anti-corruption promise and the change mantra. But, did Nigerians actually voted for change? The facts says otherwise.

In the 2015 general elections, the numbers proved that Nigerians continued to vote along Ethnic lines.

Let's take a look at the 2015 election results again. By geopolitical zones:

South-East: APC - 196,248 (7.29%) PDP - 2,464,906 (90.63%) - Winner: PDP

South-West: APC - 2,433,193 (55.7%) PDP - 1,821,416 (41.75%) - Winner: APC

South-South: APC - 418,590 (8.1%) PDP - 4,714,725 (91.22%) - Winner: PDP

Total South Votes: APC - 3,050,031 (24.9%) PDP - 9,001,047 (73.47%) - Winner PDP



North-West: APC - 7,115,199 (83.65%) PDP - 1,339,709 (15.75%) - Winner: APC

North-East: APC - 2,848,678 (77.57%) PDP - 796,588 (21.69) - Winner: APC

North-Central: APC - 2,264,614 (58.79%) PDP - 1,558,623 (40.46%) - Winner: APC

Total North Votes APC - 12,228,491 (76.28%) PDP - 3,694,920 (23.05%) - Winner: APC


FCT: APC - 146,399 (47.72%) PDP - 157,196 (23.05%) - Winner: PDP


Total Votes across all zones: APC - 15,424,921 (53.95%) PDP - 12,853,162 (44.96%)


With the APC fielding a Northerner in Muhammadu Buhari and the PDP fielding a Southerner in Goodluck Jonathan, the North voted for their own while the south voted for their own.

PDP's only defeat in the South was as a result of APC fielding Prof. Yemi Osinbajo of the South-West, but even at that, the margin wasn't much due to the large number of Igbo voters living across the whole Southern region.

For the 2019 elections, the cards are now even, with the PDP fielding a Northerner in Atiku Abubakar to go head to head with another Northerner, the incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari. Both Hausa-fulani Descents. The battle line is drawn.


PDP will always win the South

Even with APC's change movement, they couldn't win the South, which houses some of the most educated people in Nigeria. Even the APC's victory in the South-west wasn't as convincing as expected. Now, after three and half years into PMB's tenure, the South-west are now wiser and beginning to realign with the group most likely to bring the much needed economic growth and restructuring we all crave. My inference is that the PDP will win the South again, but this time, with a wider margin.


The Igbos are not politically irrelevant afterall

Contrary to the belief that the Igbos are politically irrelevant when it comes to voting and making decisive electoral decisions, the reverse is the case here. With more Igbos living in other regions than their own, due to business pursuits and their love for migration and cultural exploration, the Igbos have the numbers to affect political issues in other regions other than their own. A look at the last elections comes to mind, with the PDP sweeping almost all the votes in the Southern region where Igbo are predominant. Even with the APC's media bastardization of the then Goodluck Jonathan, and their almost convincing promise of Change and anti-corruption, the APC still lost heavily across the south in 2015.


Nigerians will always vote along Ethnic lines

Forget the sweet political talks and manifestos that are being bombarded into the media, Nigerians are natively tribalistic. From the last elections, you would see that the South-west voted for Prof. Yemi Osinbajo, the SS and SE voted for GEJ instead of Buhari, and the North voted for Buhari instead of GEJ.

Don't be deceived that the APC won the last elections due to Nigerians wanting change. No. the APC won due to their political permutation and combination. In 2015, the elections was about the North vs the South, and the North won due to their larger population. In 2019, the political combination for both parties will be equal - this time, the North vs the North - and we will see Nigerians showing their true colors and voting along ethnic lines, again.


The Battle is in the North

With the South already settled for the PDP, the real battle will be in convincing the North to reject one of their own. With PMB and Atiku being of the same Hausa-fulani descent, they would both have to dig deep to convince the Northern electorates that they have the best plan for the North.

Will the North believe in Atiku's restructuring plan? I don't think so. Will the North believe in PMB's passivity and blame game? I don't think so. Both candidates would have to find a stronger reason backed with a Northern agenda to pull crowds in the North especially in the North-west which houses the highest number of voting population in Nigeria.


The PDP needs only 40% of Northern votes to win

With Atiku picking Peter Obi as his Vice for next year's general elections, we can conclude that the PDP will sweep almost all the votes in the South. All said and done, the PDP would need to up their game in the North. Now fielding a Norther instead of a Southerner, the job will become really easy for the PDP to garner enough Northern votes.

With PMB winning the last elections by only 2.5 million votes, the PDP has a chance to topple that margin. If Atiku can get only 40% of the North's total 16 million votes, which is only 6.4 million (I think he could get even much more), then the PDP will be cruising.


Conclusion: I believe the PDP will clear the Southern votes again, just like in 2015 when their rating was lowest. I also believe Atiku will get over 45% of the Northern votes if he plays to the tune of the Northern agenda. With this, I see the PDP winning the 2019 Presidential election.


This is my personal analysis and I owe no one any explanation.
Copyright 2018. Nairaland.com/slimdoug

cc: lalasticlala

My brother is the South West not part of the South? Tell me how can pdp win the South West. The battle is now between Ibo and Yoruba. Because whoever emerge as the vice president will filed the next president after 2023. From all the indications pdp have no single governor in the South West and the APC national leader is from there. If Buhari promise to give the south west power once his tenure expire in 2023, guess what will happen, at least he will get nothing less than 65% of their total vote. And let me tell you today and don't be deceive Atiku abubakar will not do better than Jonathan in the North. It will be extremely difficult for him to win in adamawa as still stands now, though we can't predict tomorrow. Let's be patient is to early for all these projection because with time many things will change. Is only Buhari they know as a true northern in the North.

Omon605:


My brother is the South West not part of the South? Tell me how can pdp win the South West. The battle is now between Ibo and Yoruba. Because whoever emerge as the vice president will filed the next president after 2023. From all the indications pdp have no single governor in the South West and the APC national leader is from there. If Buhari promise to give the south west power once his tenure expire in 2023, guess what will happen, at least he will get nothing less than 65% of their total vote. And let me tell you today and don't be deceive Atiku abubakar will not do better than Jonathan in the North. It will be extremely difficult for him to win in adamawa as still stands now, though we can't predict tomorrow. Let's be patient is to early for all these projection because with time many things will change. Is only Buhari they know as a true northern in the North.

That's what I'm saying. In 2015, Yoruba's voted for the APC, but still the PDP still cleared the whole southern votes. Even with the change, APC still performed poorly in the south when everybody voted against GEJ.

Now that we have witnessed the APC's change, the PDP will win the South again, with or without Yoruba's votes, and this time, with wider margin. All in all, the real battle remains in the North.

P.S: I'm not a tribalistic bigot, and I love my Yoruba niggas. The PDP needs the Yorubas, Igbos and Hausa's for a more inclusive government.

Slimdoug:


That's what I'm saying. In 2015, Yoruba's voted for the APC, but still the PDP still cleared the whole southern votes. Even with the change, APC still performed poorly in the south when everybody voted against GEJ.

Now that we have witnessed the APC's change, the PDP will win the South again, with or without Yoruba's votes, and this time, with wider margin. All in all, the real battle remains in the North.

P.S: I'm not a tribalistic bigot, and I love my Yoruba niggas. The PDP needs the Yorubas, Igbos and Hausa's for a more inclusive government.

Let's just go to the polls.

#istandwithbuharitill2023

dotcomnamename:
All i see here is self consolation and day dreaming. Within your mind you knew that Buhari will defeat Atiku before 2pm on election even if you merge Atiku + Saraki + all PDP primary losers, Buhari will still defeat them. To Wailers, Buhari is both despotic and lifeless. He's weak and dictatorial. And Atiku is a thief and competent. Of what benefit is the wisdom of a thief?

They are the most confused individuals in the world.. From PDP to our mumu don do, to avengers, to ipod/Biafra to red card, from red card to young people must take over and now finally back to PDP /Atiku... Lmao

Ipob brothers are all Atikulooting at the moment...Agitation will resume in March 2019. They have abandoned Sowore... Lol. That's how they did to everyone they met in their miserable lives. So because Buhari could not fix the problem of 16yrs in 3yrs so i should go back to the people that caused it abi?

my dear forget,it won't be easy for buhari,the packaging prior to 2015 election,was wonderful,that alot of people fell for his change mantra,but this time,believe u me it won't be easy,remember in previous election he has powerful men on his side,including retired generals,nigeria elections some times are decided by nigeria strong and powerful men on your side not the electrate

You owe no one explanation and you write book full.......you try. You guys are forgetting many things and it's making my laff to laff. Suddenly, everyone has turned to political calculator

You have forgotten that the figures that came from South South and East in the last election was inflated in favour of PDP cos they were in power then, and they couldn't try such in the North cos they all wanted Buhari. This time no governor would want to put his own 2nd term ambition on the line for an Atiku victory they are not sure of which is likely won't be the case for APC in the North.

When you beat your chest, consider many factors. Who is in power? Who controls the security apparatus? Who controls INEC? Thank God for Jega and many big wigs controlling their States that aligned with APC in 2015, PDP wouldn't have lost.

Those giving Southwest to Atiku should remember Tinubu and the Governors. They are likely to commit all there resources in ensuring that APC wins here. Remember what happened in Ekiti and Osun. You might want to say the margin was close but don't forget the results that came for the direct primaries for the President. It's a signal that they won't score less than that in the secondary election.

Except there's a massive defections of big wigs of those who control the machinations of states from APC to PDP in the coming days.., if everything remains this way, Buhari would win with a landslide and many PDP National assembly members won't return.

When you beat your chest, consider some factors.

Pdp will win the major south by a landslide ,and buhari the NW. That is the only sure thing about 2019 elections.

The rest is still uncertain.

RTSC:
Pdp will win the major south by a landslide ,and buhari the NW. That is the only sure thing about 2019 elections.

The rest is still uncertain.

No wahala jareee. We are set in our ways.

RTSC:
Pdp will win the major south by a landslide ,and buhari the NW. That is the only sure thing about 2019 elections.

The rest is still uncertain.

PDP Cannot Win the South for following reasons?

1. It will lose WOEFULLY in the South West, What Tinubu and other APC Governors couldn't do in 2015 because of the Federal Power will now be used.

2. No State In the South will return up 600000 votes for the PDP.
The results sheet and the pen they used to write the results in Rivers State is now with Amaechi, The one they used in Akwaibom is now with Akpabio, and finally the one in Delta is with Ogboru and Omo- Agege.

3. In The South they will only win Enugu and Abia State In clear margins but insignificant when paired with Oyo and Osun. Imo and Ebonyi will go APC.