Democracy more than any other political system on the planet and throughout history hinges on a simple premise which is that legitimacy and power for any political leadership is granted soley by ‘the people’ who grant such legitimacy and power through their legal right to vote. In that regard it is evident to infer that democracy is a ‘game of numbers’ and that in any democracy ‘the votes’ are the ‘currency of the day’, as ones ability to understand and gather the support of the people which transcends to votes from the people majority, is the key to winning and maintaining ones legitimacy and power. Such premise is not loss on a gradually improving representative democracy such as that of Nigeria and are highlighted in the content of this article which is an extract from THE 2011&2015 NIGERIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION DESCRIPTIVE ANALYTICS REPORT developed by Franelta&Basbra Data Limited, which aims to enlighten the reader about the nature of the electoral landscape in Nigeria and why an understanding of the electoral numbers and patterns matter.
The Nigerian electoral landscape in the report encompasses the following which are first the nature of the electorate, second the criteria for which they vote by, and third the patterns in which they vote. The nature of the Nigerian electorate is a wide mix of a multi-ethnic and multi-religious population, who are categorized in political entities which are 6 geopolitical zones, 36 states plus the Federal Capital Territory and 774 local government areas (LGAs). Such electorate make voting decisions based on various voting criteria which can be grouped into the Identity, Issues, Institutions and Personality voting criteria and a combination of the nature of the electorate and their voting criteria provides voting patterns which evolve or stay the same over different election cycles.
One important Institutions criteria which is taken into consideration by the electorate are the political parties and its candidates who are in constant canvasing mode for the votes of the electorate during election seasons. Given the diverse nature of the Nigerian electorate political parties usually have to cast a wide tent to accommodate the multiplicity of interest of the electorate and in terms of winning the presidency such political tent has to be wider for such political parties to be successful. In recent electoral times the Nigerian political infrastructure has gradually developed into a strong two party system, between the All Progressives Congress (APC) formed in 2013 and the dominant People’s Democratic Party (PDP) formed in 1998, right before the dawn of the fourth republic and return to civilian rule in Nigeria. These parties both have the widest tent in the country and have been the most successful in elections since the return to democracy in 1999.
The content of the report is focused heavily on the quantitative viewpoint of the electorate, and as such provides voting data, patterns and graphic elaborations for the two major political parties in Nigeria over the last two election cycles of 2011 and 2015 respectively. While the APC didn’t exist as a single party in the 2011, a simulation was performed in this report with the voting data of the three major opposition parties which contested separately in the 2011 elections, and as a unified APC in the 2015 elections, those parties being the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), the All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP), and the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) respectively.
Detailed in the full analytics report are various insights such as geopolitical zone profiles, voting pattern criteria, voting data points, voting pattern diagrams and graphic elaborations of the electorate of Nigeria, with heavy focus being placed on the number of registered voters over the last two election cycles, voter turnout, total votes cast and the vote share for each of the two parties noted above. These data points, patterns and elaboration help provide insights to each party’s strongholds both from a geopolitical zone and a state by state perspective, as well as each party’s presence in swing zones and states, who made different choices over the course of both election cycles. Strongholds zones and states are classified in this report as zones and states where a party gathered a minimum vote share of approximately 50% of the two election cycles and swing zones and states are classified as zones and states which flipped from one party to another, over the course of the last two election cycles.
REPORT HIGHLIGHTS
These are some insights gained along country, geopolitical zones and state lines;
COUNTRY-WIDE
1. The number of registered voters dropped by 8.3% from 73,528,040 voters in 2011 to 67,422,007 voters in 2015.
2. Voter turnout dropped from 52.0% in 2011 to 43.7% in 2015, with an average of 47.8% over both election cycles.
3. The total votes cast dropped by 23.0% from 38,209,978 votes in 2011 to 29,432,083 votes in 2015.
4. The APC won 13 states in the 2011 elections (ACN: 1, CPC:12) and improved its win tally in 2015 to 21 states. The PDP won 24 (23+FCT) states in the 2011 and was only able to win 16 (15+FCT) states in 2015.
5. The APC vote share of total votes cast increased from 39.3% in 2011 to 52.4% in 2015, while vote share for the PDP dropped from 58.9% in 2011 to 43.7%.

NORTH-WEST (NW)
1. The North-West is ranked 1st on average in terms of number of registered voters, 1st in terms of total votes cast, and 2nd in terms of voter turnout among the 6 geopolitical zones over the 2011 and 2015 elections.
2. Its number of registered voters dropped by 11.3% from 19,803,689 in 2011 to 17,570,066 in 2015.
3. Voter turnout in North-West dropped from 54.5% in 2011 to 49.8% in 2015, with an average of 52.2% over both election cycles.
4. Total number of votes cast in the North-West dropped by 19.0% from 10,800,076 in 2011 to 8,747,921 in 2015.
5. All 7 states in the North-West were won by the APC in both the 2011 (i.e. CPC:7 states won) and 2015. APC vote share of total vote cast increased from 66.8% in 2011 to 81.3% in 2015, while vote share for the PDP dropped from 31.4% in 2011 to 15.3% in 2015.
6. Based on electoral performance over both election cycles the North-West can be considered a APC stronghold geopolitical zone.

NORTH-EAST (NE)
1. The North-East is ranked 4th on average in terms of the number of registered voters, 4th in terms of total votes cast and 4th in terms of voter turnout among the six geopolitical zones over the 2011 and 2015 elections.
2. Its number of registered voters dropped by 16.9% from 10,749,059 in 2011 to 8,933,630 in 2015.
3. Voter turnout in North-East dropped from 54.2% in 2011 to 42.4% in 2015, with an average of 48.3% over both election cycles.
4. Total number of votes cast in the North-East dropped by 35.1% from 5,826,444 in 2011 to 3,783,920 in 2015.
5. Of the 6 states in the North-East, 4 states were won by the APC in the 2011 (i.e. CPC:4 states won) and 5 states were won in 2015 whereas for the PDP 2 states were won in 2011 and only 1 state was won in 2015. APC vote share of total vote cast increased from 67.1% in 2011 to 75.3% in 2015, while vote share for the PDP dropped from 31.5% in 2011 to 21.1% in 2015.
6. Based on electoral performance over both election cycles the North-East can be considered a APC stronghold geopolitical zone.

NORTH-CENTRAL (NC)
1. The North-Central is ranked 3rd on average in terms of number of registered voters, 3rd in terms of total votes cast and 5th in terms voter turnout among the six geopolitical zones over the 2011 and 2015 elections.
2. Its number of registered voters dropped by 9.6% from 11,627,490 in 2011 to 10,507,028 in 2015.
3. Voter turnout in North-Central dropped from 47.7% in 2011 to 40.8% in 2015, with an average of 44.2% over both election cycles.
4. Total number of votes cast in the North-Central dropped by 22.7% from 5,546,159 in 2011 to 4,286,850 in 2015.
5. Of the 7 states in the North-Central, 1 state was won by the APC in the 2011 (i.e. CPC:1 states won) and 3 states were won in 2015 whereas for the PDP 6 states were won in 2011 and 4 states were won in 2015. APC vote share of total vote cast increased from 37.8% in 2011 to 56.2% in 2015, while vote share for the PDP dropped from 60.9% in 2011 to 40.0% in 2015.
6. Based on electoral performance over both election cycles the North-Central can be considered a swing geopolitical zone for both the APC and PDP.

SOUTH-WEST (SW)
1. The South-West is ranked 2nd on average in terms of number of registered voters, 5th in terms of total votes cast and 6th in terms voter turnout among the six geopolitical zones over the 2011 and 2015 elections.
2. Its number of registered voters dropped by 5.7% from 14,296,163 in 2011 to 13,484,620 in 2015.
3. Voter turnout in South-West increased from 32.3% in 2011 to 33.7% in 2015, with an average of 33.0% over both election cycles.
4. Total number of votes cast in the South-West dropped by 1.6% from 4,613,712 in 2011 to 4,539,447 in 2015.
5. Of the 6 states in the South-West, 1 state was won by the APC in the 2011 (i.e. ACN:1 states won) and 5 states were won in 2015 whereas for the PDP 5 states were won in 2011 and only 1 state was won in 2015. APC vote share of total vote cast increased from 37.3% in 2011 to 53.6% in 2015, while vote share for the PDP dropped from 60.4% in 2011 to 40.1% in 2015.
6. Based on electoral performance over both election cycles the South-West can be considered a swing geopolitical zone for both the APC and PDP.
SOUTH-EAST (SE)
1. The South-East is ranked 6th on average in terms of number of registered voters, 6th in terms of total votes cast, and 3rd in terms of voter turnout among the six geopolitical zones over the 2011 and 2015 elections.
2. Its number of registered voters dropped by 0.8% from 7,577,212 in 2011 to 7,513,033 in 2015.
3. Voter turnout in South-East dropped from 67.0% in 2011 to 37.5% in 2015, with an average of 52.2% over both election cycles.
4. Total number of votes cast in the South-East dropped by 44.5% from 5,073,321 in 2011 to 2,815,348 in 2015.
5. All 5 states in the South-East were won by the PDP in both the 2011 and 2015. APC vote share of total vote cast increased from 1.3% in 2011 to 7.0% in 2015, while vote share for the PDP dropped from 98.3% in 2011 to 87.6% in 2015.
6. Based on electoral performance over both election cycles the South-East can be considered a PDP stronghold geopolitical zone.
SOUTH-SOUTH (SS)
1. The South-South is ranked 5th on average in terms of number of registered voters, 2nd in terms of total votes cast, and 1st in terms of voter turnout among the six geopolitical zones over the 2011 and 2015 elections.
2. Its number of registered voters dropped by 0.6% from 9,474,427 in 2011 to 9,413,630 in 2015.
3. Voter turnout in South-South dropped from 67.0% in 2011 to 55.9% in 2015, with an average of 61.4% over both election cycles.
4. Total number of votes cast in the South-South dropped by 17.2% from 6,350,266 in 2011 to 5,258,597 in 2015.
5. All 6 states in the South-South were won by the PDP in both the 2011 and 2015. APC vote share of total vote cast increased from 3.2% in 2011 to 8.0% in 2015, while vote share for the PDP dropped from 96.4% in 2011 to 89.7% in 2015.
6. Based on electoral performance over both election cycles the South-South can be considered a PDP stronghold geopolitical zone.
STATES
1. The state ranked 1st on average over both election cycles in terms of number of registered voters is Lagos (SW) and the state ranked 37th is Bayelsa (SS).
2. The state ranked 1st on average over both election cycles in terms of voter turnout is Bayelsa (SS) and the state ranked 37th is Lagos (SW).
3. The state ranked 1st on average over both election cycles in terms of total votes cast is Kano (NW) and the state ranked 37th is Ekiti (SW).
4. The top ranked states on average in terms of number of registered voters are Lagos (SW), Kano (NW), Kaduna (NW), Kastina (NW), and Oyo (SW) respectively.
5. The bottom ranked states on average in terms of number of registered voters are Cross River (SS), Ebonyi (SE), FCT (NC), Ekiti (SW) and Bayelsa (SS) respectively.
6. The top ranked states on average in terms of voter turnout are Bayelsa (SS), Rivers (SS), Akwa Ibom (SS), Delta (SS), and Imo (SE) respectively.
7. The bottom ranked states on average in terms of voter turnout are Oyo (SW), Edo (SS), Ondo (SW), Ogun (SW) and Lagos (SW) respectively.
8. The top ranked states on average in terms of total votes cast are Kano (NW), Kaduna (NW), Rivers (SS), Lagos (SW) and Kastina (NW) respectively.
9. The bottom ranked states on average in terms of total votes cast are Kwara (NC), Ebonyi (SE), Bayelsa (SS), FCT (NC) and Ekiti (SW) respectively.
10. Despite Lagos State being ranked 1st in terms number of registered voters, and 4th in terms of total votes cast, at an average voter turnout of 28.8% over both election cycles, Lagos ranks 37th out of 37 states (36 states +FCT) in terms of voter turnout. Such dismal turnout highlights a huge underutilization of votes registered in the richest voting state in the country.
Download full report here: https://www.franeltaandbasbra.com/publications/the-2011-and-2015-nigerian-presidential-election-descriptive-analytics-report/

FrankHodgins:

Democracy more than any other political system on the planet and throughout history hinges on a simple premise which is that legitimacy and power for any political leadership is granted soley by ‘the people’ who grant such legitimacy and power through their legal right to vote. In that regard it is evident to infer that democracy is a ‘game of numbers’ and that in any democracy ‘the votes’ are the ‘currency of the day’, as ones ability to understand and gather the support of the people which transcends to votes from the people majority, is the key to winning and maintaining ones legitimacy and power. Such premise is not loss on a gradually improving representative democracy such as that of Nigeria and are highlighted in the content of this article which is an extract from THE 2011&2015 NIGERIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION DESCRIPTIVE ANALYTICS REPORT developed by Franelta&Basbra Data Limited, which aims to enlighten the reader about the nature of the electoral landscape in Nigeria and why an understanding of the electoral numbers and patterns matter.
The Nigerian electoral landscape in the report encompasses the following which are first the nature of the electorate, second the criteria for which they vote by, and third the patterns in which they vote. The nature of the Nigerian electorate is a wide mix of a multi-ethnic and multi-religious population, who are categorized in political entities which are 6 geopolitical zones, 36 states plus the Federal Capital Territory and 774 local government areas (LGAs). Such electorate make voting decisions based on various voting criteria which can be grouped into the Identity, Issues, Institutions and Personality voting criteria and a combination of the nature of the electorate and their voting criteria provides voting patterns which evolve or stay the same over different election cycles.
One important Institutions criteria which is taken into consideration by the electorate are the political parties and its candidates who are in constant canvasing mode for the votes of the electorate during election seasons. Given the diverse nature of the Nigerian electorate political parties usually have to cast a wide tent to accommodate the multiplicity of interest of the electorate and in terms of winning the presidency such political tent has to be wider for such political parties to be successful. In recent electoral times the Nigerian political infrastructure has gradually developed into a strong two party system, between the All Progressives Congress (APC) formed in 2013 and the dominant People’s Democratic Party (PDP) formed in 1998, right before the dawn of the fourth republic and return to civilian rule in Nigeria. These parties both have the widest tent in the country and have been the most successful in elections since the return to democracy in 1999.
The content of the report is focused heavily on the quantitative viewpoint of the electorate, and as such provides voting data, patterns and graphic elaborations for the two major political parties in Nigeria over the last two election cycles of 2011 and 2015 respectively. While the APC didn’t exist as a single party in the 2011, a simulation was performed in this report with the voting data of the three major opposition parties which contested separately in the 2011 elections, and as a unified APC in the 2015 elections, those parties being the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), the All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP), and the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) respectively.
Detailed in the full analytics report are various insights such as geopolitical zone profiles, voting pattern criteria, voting data points, voting pattern diagrams and graphic elaborations of the electorate of Nigeria, with heavy focus being placed on the number of registered voters over the last two election cycles, voter turnout, total votes cast and the vote share for each of the two parties noted above. These data points, patterns and elaboration help provide insights to each party’s strongholds both from a geopolitical zone and a state by state perspective, as well as each party’s presence in swing zones and states, who made different choices over the course of both election cycles. Strongholds zones and states are classified in this report as zones and states where a party gathered a minimum vote share of approximately 50% of the two election cycles and swing zones and states are classified as zones and states which flipped from one party to another, over the course of the last two election cycles.
REPORT HIGHLIGHTS
These are some insights gained along country, geopolitical zones and state lines;
COUNTRY-WIDE
1. The number of registered voters dropped by 8.3% from 73,528,040 voters in 2011 to 67,422,007 voters in 2015.
2. Voter turnout dropped from 52.0% in 2011 to 43.7% in 2015, with an average of 47.8% over both election cycles.
3. The total votes cast dropped by 23.0% from 38,209,978 votes in 2011 to 29,432,083 votes in 2015.
4. The APC won 13 states in the 2011 elections (ACN: 1, CPC:12) and improved its win tally in 2015 to 21 states. The PDP won 24 (23+FCT) states in the 2011 and was only able to win 16 (15+FCT) states in 2015.
5. The APC vote share of total votes cast increased from 39.3% in 2011 to 52.4% in 2015, while vote share for the PDP dropped from 58.9% in 2011 to 43.7%.

NORTH-WEST (NW)
1. The North-West is ranked 1st on average in terms of number of registered voters, 1st in terms of total votes cast, and 2nd in terms of voter turnout among the 6 geopolitical zones over the 2011 and 2015 elections.
2. Its number of registered voters dropped by 11.3% from 19,803,689 in 2011 to 17,570,066 in 2015.
3. Voter turnout in North-West dropped from 54.5% in 2011 to 49.8% in 2015, with an average of 52.2% over both election cycles.
4. Total number of votes cast in the North-West dropped by 19.0% from 10,800,076 in 2011 to 8,747,921 in 2015.
5. All 7 states in the North-West were won by the APC in both the 2011 (i.e. CPC:7 states won) and 2015. APC vote share of total vote cast increased from 66.8% in 2011 to 81.3% in 2015, while vote share for the PDP dropped from 31.4% in 2011 to 15.3% in 2015.
6. Based on electoral performance over both election cycles the North-West can be considered a APC stronghold geopolitical zone.

NORTH-EAST (NE)
1. The North-East is ranked 4th on average in terms of the number of registered voters, 4th in terms of total votes cast and 4th in terms of voter turnout among the six geopolitical zones over the 2011 and 2015 elections.
2. Its number of registered voters dropped by 16.9% from 10,749,059 in 2011 to 8,933,630 in 2015.
3. Voter turnout in North-East dropped from 54.2% in 2011 to 42.4% in 2015, with an average of 48.3% over both election cycles.
4. Total number of votes cast in the North-East dropped by 35.1% from 5,826,444 in 2011 to 3,783,920 in 2015.
5. Of the 6 states in the North-East, 4 states were won by the APC in the 2011 (i.e. CPC:4 states won) and 5 states were won in 2015 whereas for the PDP 2 states were won in 2011 and only 1 state was won in 2015. APC vote share of total vote cast increased from 67.1% in 2011 to 75.3% in 2015, while vote share for the PDP dropped from 31.5% in 2011 to 21.1% in 2015.
6. Based on electoral performance over both election cycles the North-East can be considered a APC stronghold geopolitical zone.

NORTH-CENTRAL (NC)
1. The North-Central is ranked 3rd on average in terms of number of registered voters, 3rd in terms of total votes cast and 5th in terms voter turnout among the six geopolitical zones over the 2011 and 2015 elections.
2. Its number of registered voters dropped by 9.6% from 11,627,490 in 2011 to 10,507,028 in 2015.
3. Voter turnout in North-Central dropped from 47.7% in 2011 to 40.8% in 2015, with an average of 44.2% over both election cycles.
4. Total number of votes cast in the North-Central dropped by 22.7% from 5,546,159 in 2011 to 4,286,850 in 2015.
5. Of the 7 states in the North-Central, 1 state was won by the APC in the 2011 (i.e. CPC:1 states won) and 3 states were won in 2015 whereas for the PDP 6 states were won in 2011 and 4 states were won in 2015. APC vote share of total vote cast increased from 37.8% in 2011 to 56.2% in 2015, while vote share for the PDP dropped from 60.9% in 2011 to 40.0% in 2015.
6. Based on electoral performance over both election cycles the North-Central can be considered a swing geopolitical zone for both the APC and PDP.

SOUTH-WEST (SW)
1. The South-West is ranked 2nd on average in terms of number of registered voters, 5th in terms of total votes cast and 6th in terms voter turnout among the six geopolitical zones over the 2011 and 2015 elections.
2. Its number of registered voters dropped by 5.7% from 14,296,163 in 2011 to 13,484,620 in 2015.
3. Voter turnout in South-West increased from 32.3% in 2011 to 33.7% in 2015, with an average of 33.0% over both election cycles.
4. Total number of votes cast in the South-West dropped by 1.6% from 4,613,712 in 2011 to 4,539,447 in 2015.
5. Of the 6 states in the South-West, 1 state was won by the APC in the 2011 (i.e. ACN:1 states won) and 5 states were won in 2015 whereas for the PDP 5 states were won in 2011 and only 1 state was won in 2015. APC vote share of total vote cast increased from 37.3% in 2011 to 53.6% in 2015, while vote share for the PDP dropped from 60.4% in 2011 to 40.1% in 2015.
6. Based on electoral performance over both election cycles the South-West can be considered a swing geopolitical zone for both the APC and PDP.
SOUTH-EAST (SE)
1. The South-East is ranked 6th on average in terms of number of registered voters, 6th in terms of total votes cast, and 3rd in terms of voter turnout among the six geopolitical zones over the 2011 and 2015 elections.
2. Its number of registered voters dropped by 0.8% from 7,577,212 in 2011 to 7,513,033 in 2015.
3. Voter turnout in South-East dropped from 67.0% in 2011 to 37.5% in 2015, with an average of 52.2% over both election cycles.
4. Total number of votes cast in the South-East dropped by 44.5% from 5,073,321 in 2011 to 2,815,348 in 2015.
5. All 5 states in the South-East were won by the PDP in both the 2011 and 2015. APC vote share of total vote cast increased from 1.3% in 2011 to 7.0% in 2015, while vote share for the PDP dropped from 98.3% in 2011 to 87.6% in 2015.
6. Based on electoral performance over both election cycles the South-East can be considered a PDP stronghold geopolitical zone.
SOUTH-SOUTH (SS)
1. The South-South is ranked 5th on average in terms of number of registered voters, 2nd in terms of total votes cast, and 1st in terms of voter turnout among the six geopolitical zones over the 2011 and 2015 elections.
2. Its number of registered voters dropped by 0.6% from 9,474,427 in 2011 to 9,413,630 in 2015.
3. Voter turnout in South-South dropped from 67.0% in 2011 to 55.9% in 2015, with an average of 61.4% over both election cycles.
4. Total number of votes cast in the South-South dropped by 17.2% from 6,350,266 in 2011 to 5,258,597 in 2015.
5. All 6 states in the South-South were won by the PDP in both the 2011 and 2015. APC vote share of total vote cast increased from 3.2% in 2011 to 8.0% in 2015, while vote share for the PDP dropped from 96.4% in 2011 to 89.7% in 2015.
6. Based on electoral performance over both election cycles the South-South can be considered a PDP stronghold geopolitical zone.
STATES
1. The state ranked 1st on average over both election cycles in terms of number of registered voters is Lagos (SW) and the state ranked 37th is Bayelsa (SS).
2. The state ranked 1st on average over both election cycles in terms of voter turnout is Bayelsa (SS) and the state ranked 37th is Lagos (SW).
3. The state ranked 1st on average over both election cycles in terms of total votes cast is Kano (NW) and the state ranked 37th is Ekiti (SW).
4. The top ranked states on average in terms of number of registered voters are Lagos (SW), Kano (NW), Kaduna (NW), Kastina (NW), and Oyo (SW) respectively.
5. The bottom ranked states on average in terms of number of registered voters are Cross River (SS), Ebonyi (SE), FCT (NC), Ekiti (SW) and Bayelsa (SS) respectively.
6. The top ranked states on average in terms of voter turnout are Bayelsa (SS), Rivers (SS), Akwa Ibom (SS), Delta (SS), and Imo (SE) respectively.
7. The bottom ranked states on average in terms of voter turnout are Oyo (SW), Edo (SS), Ondo (SW), Ogun (SW) and Lagos (SW) respectively.
8. The top ranked states on average in terms of total votes cast are Kano (NW), Kaduna (NW), Rivers (SS), Lagos (SW) and Kastina (NW) respectively.
9. The bottom ranked states on average in terms of total votes cast are Kwara (NC), Ebonyi (SE), Bayelsa (SS), FCT (NC) and Ekiti (SW) respectively.
10. Despite Lagos State being ranked 1st in terms number of registered voters, and 4th in terms of total votes cast, at an average voter turnout of 28.8% over both election cycles, Lagos ranks 37th out of 37 states (36 states +FCT) in terms of voter turnout. Such dismal turnout highlights a huge underutilization of votes registered in the richest voting state in the country.
Download full report here: https://www.franeltaandbasbra.com/publications/the-2011-and-2015-nigerian-presidential-election-descriptive-analytics-report/

I'm having to quote this in full, so I can easily get to it later, and possibly put the statistic in a spreadsheet for future reference.

That being said, what jumps out to me the most in the statistic presented, is the huge +-45% drop in valid votes cast in the South East in 2015, compared to 2011. This drop is nearly twice as much as that recorded for the nearest other zones with drops.

I can ascribe this drop to one major thing: The introduction and use of the Card Reader. I also make bold to say that the number of valid votes in the South East will still hover around the same 2.8 million in 2019, as recorded for the geopolitical zone in 2015.

In addition, I will expect the number of valid votes recorded in the South South during the 2019 elections to drop appreciably, compared to the number in 2015, which hardly dropped from the 2011 percentage. This anticipated drop in 2019 will be due to the use of the Card Reader being expected to be more strictly enforced in the creeks, from where the huge numbers of recorded votes would traditionally come in the zone. This will be even more so if the newly amended Electoral Act - as presently drafted with the stricter use of the Card Reader for accreditation and collation - is signed into law before the 2019 elections.

But, what do I know?

........
P34c3
.....
...

duwdu:


I'm having to quote this in full, so I can easily get to in later, and possibly put the statistics in a spreadsheet for future reference.

That being said, what jumps out to me the most, is the huge +-45% drop in valid votes cast in the South East in 2015, compared to 2011. This drop is nearly twice as much as that recorded for the nearest other zones with a drop.

I can ascribe this drop to one major thing: The introduction and use of the Card Reader. I also make bold to say that the number of valid votes in the South East will still hover around the same 2.8 million in 2019, as recorded for the geopolitical zone in 2015.

In addition, I will expect the number of valid votes recorded in the South South during the 2019 elections to drop appreciably, compared to the number in 2015, which hardly dropped from the 2011 percentage. This anticipated drop in 2019 will be due to the use of the Card Reader being expected to be more strictly enforced in the creeks, from where the huge numbers of recorded votes would traditionally come in the zone. This will be even more so if the newly amended Electoral Act - as presently drafted with the stricter use of the Card Reader for accreditation - is signed into law before the 2019 elections.

But, what do I know?

........
P34c3
.....
...

Your analysis is spot on bro and it makes me burst out in laughter at some obvious facts that ostriches would rather bury their heads in the sand than accept

The figures for the SS remained high in 2015 because the PDP under Wike in rivers state, Akpabio in Akwa Ibom and tompolo in Delta had license to kill under the guidance of the armed forces. I'm in PH so I know. This will not happen for PDP in 2019 so we should expect a drop of the magnitude of that experienced for the SE. Infact it might be more because by the time the boys of Ojukaye of APC and Go-round of PDP finish their shootouts on Thursday and Friday, nobody will risk coming out to vote on Saturday

duwdu:


I'm having to quote this in full, so I can easily get to in later, and possibly put the statistics in a spreadsheet for future reference.

That being said, what jumps out to me the most in the statistic presented, is the huge +-45% drop in valid votes cast in the South East in 2015, compared to 2011. This drop is nearly twice as much as that recorded for the nearest other zones with a drop.

I can ascribe this drop to one major thing: The introduction and use of the Card Reader. I also make bold to say that the number of valid votes in the South East will still hover around the same 2.8 million in 2019, as recorded for the geopolitical zone in 2015.

In addition, I will expect the number of valid votes recorded in the South South during the 2019 elections to drop appreciably, compared to the number in 2015, which hardly dropped from the 2011 percentage. This anticipated drop in 2019 will be due to the use of the Card Reader being expected to be more strictly enforced in the creeks, from where the huge numbers of recorded votes would traditionally come in the zone. This will be even more so if the newly amended Electoral Act - as presently drafted with the stricter use of the Card Reader for accreditation and collation - is signed into law before the 2019 elections.

But, what do I know?

........
P34c3
.....
...

You are on Point.

shukuokukobambi:


Your analysis is spot on bro and it makes me burst out in laughter at some obvious facts that ostriches would rather bury their heads in the sand than accept

The figures for the SS remained high in 2015 because the PDP under Wike in rivers state, Akpabio in Akwa Ibom and tompolo in Delta had license to kill under the guidance of the armed forces. I'm in PH so I know. This will not happen for PDP in 2019 so we should expect a drop of the magnitude of that experienced for the SE. Infact it might be more because by the time the boys of Ojukaye of APC and Go-round of PDP finish their shootouts on Thursday and Friday, nobody will risk coming out to vote on Saturday

You remember the mini amateur analysis I did of Anambra & Osun 2011/2015 Vs 2017/2018

The kind of hypertensive coma some people will fall into when they know the true voting strength of their zones will be one for the record books..

Instructive!

Typing....

modath:


You remember the mini amateur analysis I did of Anambra & Osun 2011/2015 Vs 2017/2018

The kind of hypertensive coma some people will fall into when they know the true voting strength of their zones will be one for the record books..

Infact I shared it to some friends on my WhatsApp list. Who knows, Atikulation might get lucky in 2019 but the 'real' votes of the eternal chest beating clowns are too inconsequential to affect anything. I'm sure he too knows

ok

tuniski:
Instructive!

Thank God your reading it but please also try and understand it and interpret it.atiku has failed

duwdu:


I'm having to quote this in full, so I can easily get to it later, and possibly put the statistic in a spreadsheet for future reference.

That being said, what jumps out to me the most in the statistic presented, is the huge +-45% drop in valid votes cast in the South East in 2015, compared to 2011. This drop is nearly twice as much as that recorded for the nearest other zones with drops.

I can ascribe this drop to one major thing: The introduction and use of the Card Reader. I also make bold to say that the number of valid votes in the South East will still hover around the same 2.8 million in 2019, as recorded for the geopolitical zone in 2015.

In addition, I will expect the number of valid votes recorded in the South South during the 2019 elections to drop appreciably, compared to the number in 2015, which hardly dropped from the 2011 percentage. This anticipated drop in 2019 will be due to the use of the Card Reader being expected to be more strictly enforced in the creeks, from where the huge numbers of recorded votes would traditionally come in the zone. This will be even more so if the newly amended Electoral Act - as presently drafted with the stricter use of the Card Reader for accreditation and collation - is signed into law before the 2019 elections.

But, what do I know?

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P34c3
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Thank you for re-echoing my thoughts.i have been saying it since 2016 that the card reader exposed the true voting strength of the ss/se.these regions do not come out to vote like ne/nw.the card reader simply curtailed inflation that is the hallmark of pdp rigging between 1999-2015 through manual accreditation.
In reality,no state in ss/se records up to a million votes.if not for the incidence forms,the figures would have been lower.the ss pdp riggers found a way to use the incidence forms to still inflate votes unlike the south east.with only card readers being used in 2019,total votes in the ss/se wont be up to 7.7 million recorded in 2015 killing atiku's ambition.only the northwest will swallow that figure.....

While smart people are analysing real electoral data like this one, others think it's by hijacking Nairaland frontpage in their tens as they've done in recent weeks and screaming Atikulate and Obimycin all over the place. When they lose as expected, they'll start screaming rigging or "zoo must fall".

Meanwhile, none of this is really new to me. The SS has always been the zone with gargantuan rigging as evident in the voters' turnout; especially in Rivers, AkwaIbom, Delta and Bayelsa. However, this time, no more federal backing from PDP to reel out about 70% voters turnout there (when others are below 50%), and some of the chief riggers have moved to the APC. With strict usage of card readers, the SS will be lucky to deliver 5million votes.

This shows that the real voting strength in terms of votes cast of the NW (APC's strongest hold) can comfortably take care of the SS and SE (PDP's strongest holds) .

The NE is still there chilling for the APC as another stronghold. While the split zones of the SW and NC (which I expect more voter apathy there in 2019) slightly favour APC more than PDP.

So tell me how Atikulooter will win without even including his huge corruption baggage.

olujastro:
While smart people are analysing real electoral data like this one, others think it's by hijacking Nairaland frontpage in their tens as they've done in recent weeks and screaming Atikulate and Obimycin all over the place. When they lose as expected, they'll start screaming rigging or "zoo must fall".

Meanwhile, none of this is really new to me. The SS has always been the zone with gargantuan rigging as evident in the voters' turnout; especially in Rivers, AkwaIbom, Delta and Bayelsa. However, this time, no more federal backing from PDP to reel out about 70% voters turnout there (when others are below 50%), and some of the chief riggers have moved to the APC. With strict usage of card readers, the SS will be lucky to deliver 5million votes.

This shows that the real voting strength in terms of votes cast of the NW (APC's strongest hold) can comfortably take care of the SS and SE (PDP's strongest holds) .

The NE is still there chilling for the APC as another stronghold. While the split zones of the SW and NC (which I expect more voter apathy there in 2019) slightly favour APC more than PDP.

So tell me how Atikulooter will win without even including his huge corruption baggage.

Oga stop consoling yourself with all these analysis here and there.. You speak as if the election is between a northerner and an igbo man..
Buhari has always won in the core north.. So we don't expect anything different.. Your eyes should be on North Central.. The game changing region
Thanks

monkautos:

Oga stop consoling yourself with all these analysis here and there.. You speak as if the election is between a northerner and an igbo man..
Buhari has always won in the core north.. So we don't expect anything different.. Your eyes should be on North Central.. The game changing region
Thanks

I don't really do back and forth debates, but others might learn as well.
Election results have shown that it's only the SE and SS that have totally been voting in one direction (PDP) since 1999 irrespective of who the candidates are or where they come from. PMB had always done well in the core north but PDP also showed a strong footing there as well.

While in 2011 for example, GEJ won the swing SW and NC, and also got sizable votes in the core north despite Buhari's cult followership there; GEJ had over 1millon votes in Kaduna for example. This was because of the "I had no shoes" campaign as well as the huge PDP structures all over the country and lots of states under its control, including in the north.
However, his landslide looting naturally reversed the trend totally to PMB's favor in 2015.

In 2019, the entire north is almost under APC's control. In addition, PMB still has cult followership. They see him as the only man who isn't about his own pocket. While Atiku has no stronghold in his home state Adamawa, let alone in the entire north. Then add the huge corruption baggage of Athifku. My point is, Atiku being a northerner has no effect on PMB's potential votes there. 2019 margin will likely be more in the north than in 2015.

The NC you're calling game changer, I can confidently say PMB will win Niger and Kogi states but no one can say the same for PDP in the remaining 4 states there.

This is indeed spot on just as I have captured in mind. You have done well with this analysis. I don't see Atiku winning this. The card reader will do it's work of weeding out excessive chun out votes. 2019 will be flawless for the APC. Mark my words

This is so deep and very revealing however, Atiku is definitely winning this. It is clearly written in the sky that even the blind can see.

senatordave1:

Thank God your reading it but please also try and understand it and interpret it.atiku has failed

Hehehehe it is for people like you! #buhariToDaura2019 is a done deal.

Remember whatever you see now is coronation preparation. Your Akpabio on his way to a likely defeat in Akwa Ibom.

tomakint:
This is so deep and very revealing however, Atiku is definitely winning this. It is clearly written in the sky that even the blind can see.

@Atiku is already the president in waiiting!

tuniski:

Hehehehe it is for people like you! #buhariToDaura2019 is a done deal.

Remember whatever you see now is coronation preparation. Your Akpabio on his way to a likely defeat in Akwa Ibom.

If saraki that has lost majority support of kwara central is going to win according to you,is it akpabio that still has majority support in his district that will lose? Stop reasoning childishly.Use one hour and compare the stats of chris expenyong and akpabio and get back to us

tomakint:
This is so deep and very revealing however, Atiku is definitely winning this. It is clearly written in the sky that even the blind can see.

Seems you didnt read the post deeply or you lack comprehension skill.seek for help

senatordave1:

If saraki that has lost majority support of kwara central is going to win according to you,is it akpabio that still has majority support in his district that will lose? Stop reasoning childishly.Use one hour and compare the stats of chris expenyong and akpabio and get back to us

You sure is child on conflagration of Nigeria. Saraki is not mate with apkabio. Akpabio is too lightweight compare to Saraki.
Saraki doesn't need to be showing motley crowd in kwara as a show of strength. The dynasty is beyond that or do you see tinubu doing that in lagos?

Kwara will be delivered 100% to pdp! If there is one state in the north that is already won by pdp, it is kwara.

Akpabio a minority amongst minorities!

Keep learning you hear!

tuniski:

You sure is child on conflagration of Nigeria. Saraki is not mate with apkabio. Akpabio is too lightweight compare to Saraki.
Saraki doesn't need to be showing motley crowd in kwara as a show of strength. The dynasty is beyond that or do you see tinubu doing that in lagos?

Kwara will be delivered 100% to pdp! If there is one state in the north that is already won by pdp, it is kwara.

Akpabio a minority amongst minorities!

Keep learning you hear!

In 2015 polls in rivers,total votes recorded was 1.5 million for presidential polls while senatorial polls recorded 1.4 million polls.
In 2016 rerun,these same 3 senatorial polls recorded less than 600k votes which means there was an inflation of over 800k votes for your hero gej while buhari's votes were downgraded.how will Atiku cope?

[s]

tuniski:

You sure is child on conflagration of Nigeria. Saraki is not mate with apkabio. Akpabio is too lightweight compare to Saraki.
Saraki doesn't need to be showing motley crowd in kwara as a show of strength. The dynasty is beyond that or do you see tinubu doing that in lagos?

Kwara will be delivered 100% to pdp! If there is one state in the north that is already won by pdp, it is kwara.

Akpabio a minority amongst minorities!

Keep learning you hear!

[/s]
Try saying this without crying, I feel your pain bro.

fedorahat:


Try saying this without crying, I feel your pain bro.

Another child!

senatordave1:

In 2015 polls in rivers,total votes recorded was 1.5 million for presidential polls while senatorial polls recorded 1.4 million polls.
In 2016 rerun,these same 3 senatorial polls recorded less than 600k votes which means there was an inflation of over 800k votes for your hero gej while buhari's votes were downgraded.how will Atiku cope?

You still don't get it! Can you take an open minded trip to northern Nigeria and feel the pulse of the people.
You are always talking presidential election with a disatrous buhari using narrow disconnected perception!

By December you will stop arguing!

tuniski:

You sure is child on conflagration of Nigeria. Saraki is not mate with apkabio. Akpabio is too lightweight compare to Saraki.
Saraki doesn't need to be showing motley crowd in kwara as a show of strength. The dynasty is beyond that or do you see tinubu doing that in lagos?

Kwara will be delivered 100% to pdp! If there is one state in the north that is already won by pdp, it is kwara.

Akpabio a minority amongst minorities!

Keep learning you hear!

Bla bla bla bla bla, you just chat shit, my friend. Be realistic, so we can take u seriously. Spotum!

tuniski:

You still don't get it! Can you take an open minded trip to northern Nigeria and feel the pulse of the people.
You are always talking presidential election with a disatrous buhari using narrow disconnected perception!

By December you will stop arguing!

The elections is by february boy.why depend on defections to win buhari? See how weak your party is

senatordave1:

The elections is by february boy.why depend on defections to win buhari? See how weak your party is

Childish buhari won in 2015 cos of defectors! You are to childish and shallow!
By December you will stop Arguing. Before the primaries all you shallow and cocky buharideens said 2019 will be walkover that buhari will win by 10am. Somehow in your bubble, you dismiss the groundswell of dis-contentment against buhari.
Suddenly you have started celebrating the son of OBJ and some inconsequential ssg's younger brother as electoral defection gains!

Hehehehehe, keep learning political dynamics ain't arithmetic!

olujastro:

I don't really do back and forth debates, but others might learn as well.
Election results have shown that it's only the SE and SS that have totally been voting in one direction (PDP) since 1999 irrespective of who the candidates are or where they come from. PMB had always done well in the core north but PDP also showed a strong footing there as well.

While in 2011 for example, GEJ won the swing SW and NC, and also got sizable votes in the core north despite Buhari's cult followership there; GEJ had over 1millon votes in Kaduna for example. This was because of the "I had no shoes" campaign as well as the huge PDP structures all over the country and lots of states under its control, including in the north.
However, his landslide looting naturally reversed the trend totally to PMB's favor in 2015.

In 2019, the entire north is almost under APC's control. In addition, PMB still has cult followership. They see him as the only who isn't about his own pocket. While Atiku has no stronghold in his home state Adamawa, let alone in the entire north. Then add the huge corruption baggage of Athifku. My point is, Atiku being a northerner has no effect on PMB's potential votes there. 2019 margin will likely be more in the north than in 2015.

The NC you're calling game changer, I can confidently say PMB will win Niger and Kogi states but no one can say the same for PDP in the remaining 4 states there.

Gej got 1 million in Kaduna because of Yakowa when Namadi Sambo moved to become VP thereby giving southern Kaduna the rare op of producing a governor for the first time , so was plateau-the state he visited first after the ' doctrine of necessity' - people who had seen Gej as a savior compared to Yardua tribalistic visit( pardon my expression) earlier when the ex president had visited the Fulani community alone without a balance visit to the other tribes after a violent clash with serious fatal consequences involving the two sides, and which the folks clearly interpreted as being ' they ain't Hausa Fulani as the president'; only for Gej to break the hearts of these two and more allies from 2011 to 2015 hence he was compensated handsomely at the 2015 polls. Yea , the NE would want to thank pmb for bringing hope and relative peace to war ravaged NE -a territory under Boko haram while PDP was in power .
I also remember when poor hausas in their droves were traveling from PH, Aba etc to go register for PVC in sokoto ,kebbi jigawa etc my 'bloders' in Bayelsa for example , were demanding for money to be encouraged to get PVC!
In a free and fair election APC would match and may defeat PDP in SE/SS or how do you explain Alison Madueke's heavy PR in the then sitting President's supposed strongest hold in 2015?

tuniski:

You still don't get it! Can you take an open minded trip to northern Nigeria and feel the pulse of the people.
You are always talking presidential election with a disatrous buhari using narrow disconnected perception!

By December you will stop arguing!

Man, u get time ooo. I believe these people commenting and analysing are those type who never left there comfort to anywhere and also interact with the masses.
I personally conversed votes for buahri with both my resources and power and made sure they voted for him. but now the story have changed, not because anybody advised me or talk me to dislike him but I used my discretion. Atiku I hate like shit but buhari is killing my confidence in him day by day that's why I think he should just go and rest, at least he tried. Atiku is a thief yes but buhari is not helping matters atall

tuniski:

Childish buhari won in 2015 cos of defectors! You are to childish and shallow!
By December you will stop Arguing. Before the primaries all you shallow and cocky buharideens said 2019 will be walkover that buhari will win by 10am. Somehow in your bubble, you dismiss the groundswell of dis-contentment against buhari.
Suddenly you have started celebrating the son of OBJ and some inconsequential ssg's younger brother as electoral defection gains!

Hehehehehe, keep learning political dynamics ain't arithmetic!

Nobody is inconsequential in the south.every body counts,you will realize belatedly