Buhari Apc Vs Atiku Pdp..........the Determining Factors.....a Must Read. - Politics - Nairaland
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| Buhari Apc Vs Atiku Pdp..........the Determining Factors.....a Must Read. by Nig4Greatness: 6:40pm On Feb 10, 2019 |
BUHARI/ATIKU,APC/PDP....THE DETERMINING FACTORS. A lot has been said,many predictions,permutations and even prophesies have been made concerning this coming presidential election that is just days away,i waited till this closing moment to see if there is going to be a major shifts or events that may affect the results before making my own write up. As a full fledged Nigerian who has paid his due in the economy and socio-political development of this great nation,a major stakeholder in my own little way,a close watcher of political events in Nigeria for years now,i have come to write about my expectations for the coming elections and make some predictions as well. This is basically my opinion and should never be construed as opinion of many,tribe or any religious group. Dissenting opinions are welcome but should be constructed,factual and based on issues without resulting to name calling or mudslinging of any kind. Below are some factors or events that are likely going to determine the outcome of the election,while my write up is basically about the presidential election,other elections also that can affect the outcome would be mentioned. 1. SUPPORT BASE...(PMB) I choose this factor to start with as its seeing as one of the major strength politicians use to win elections and its an unarguable fact that PMB control large chunk of fanatical followership built up overtime especially in the north before becoming the president. It is expected this support base may have increased as a result of incumbency. They say,you die and wine with your sport team if you belong to one,same thing applies here too. In US, Donald Trump won the white house because of his solid support base he was able to build over the years as a celebrity,wealthy businessman and an outspoken political player. Any politician worth his salt knows this and they don’t take it for granted. In Nigeria,PMB support base is unrivaled and cut across party lines and as expected have continually stick by him as evident in all his rallies so far. ATIKU WEAKNESS ...in contrast, ATIKU has no support base and he has been described as such a lazy politician despite his enormous wealth and many years of political adventures. He has been unable to develop any support base for himself and only relying on his party members as his support base. When he was handled the structures of PDM, a major political tools used by the Yar'adua family with lots of bigwigs then,he simply collapsed the structures into PDP and this has greatly affected his chance and reduced him to a paperweight politician. ADVANTAGE......PMB. 2. 2015/2019 DEFECTIONS..... While it can be argue that the 2015 defections prior to the general elections affected the fortunes of the then ruling party PDP,A lot has since changed and we have seen many political gladiators jumping ships and moving from one party to the other for political relevance and for whatever reasons they believe in. Following the breakdown of those defections,we may rightly conclude that APC has gained more as expected being the ruling party as against what the PDP has gained. I expected the outcome to remain similar to the last election as those defections would not have too much impact on the result .Its a case of what Peter lost,Paul gained and vice versa. ADVANTAGE …......APC. 3[b].NORTH/NORTH,MUSLIM/MUSLIM,FULANI/FULANI[/b]. Since 2003,this is the first time major parties would be presenting their candidates from the same region belonging to the same ethnicity and religion,before now we always have North versus South Muslim versus Christian contesting. This makes this year elections very interesting and more than difficult to predict the outcome baring any other factors which may include states each party controls,the popularity and acceptability of the candidates in that region. ADVANTAGE.......APC/PMB. 4[b].RELIGION CARD. [/b] One of the reasons that gave PMB victory apart from the ones mentioned above is the issue of religion. Though GEJ did win in some states in the north in 2011,he lost his goodwill and the mostly dominated Muslims north deserted him but GEJ also gained what he lost in the north to Muslim faithfuls in the south to christian faithfuls as well who mostly stick to one of their own in faith . The southern part of the country which comprises more christian populations is now in play and the only logic behind how these Christians would vote will depends on their party candidates if they belong to any or just simply follow their conscience as to whom they believe will perform better between the two leading candidates. Surprisingly the two major parties evenly share the states in this region PDP 8 states,APC 8 states,APGA 1state. Other factor that may influence the outcome here is that of voters turnout which normally favors the south south going by the past results . ADVANTAGE........Too close to call. 5. PDP/APC IMAGE.... One of the reasons PDP lost the last general election woefully has a lot to do with their battered image before the election,the image majority of Nigerians have termed as been synonymous with corruption. Had it been only the presidency was lost while still maintaining majority in other elections (states and national assembly),then it could have been said religion and ethnicity was the major factors in the loss .Now in 2019,nothing has really changed as they still carry that toga of corruption tag on their head heading into the general election which unsurprisingly is the major campaign tool by the APC against them. I expected them to have re-branded and changed name. Meanwhile,aftermath of the painful loss,PDP completely went under and became comatose,there was a fear of one party state emerging but due to mismanagement of the country and unable to manage their victory with various dissident groups and internal wrangling,PDP came back to reckoning and with defections from APC to PDP,the party was once again given a lifeline ,APC,according to some has not lived up to expectations and with vibrant PDP now using the insecurity,slow economy and others to vilified them which caused them to lose the goodwill initially enjoyed from Nigerians .In all,i don’t see this as a major factors that will affect their fortune too much. ADVANTAGE.....APC. 6. PARTY POLITICS.. In Nigeria of today,elections are won and lost by how many loyal party members exist in any political party.90% of voters in Nigeria belong to one political party or the other which leave little room for unaffiliated Nigerians to have a major say. Take US for example,both Democrat and Republicans registered members only account for 60% of voters in any given elections while the remaining 40% are without party affiliation ,these people are called the swing voters. This group of voters determine who get elected and politicians always direct their campaign rhetoric towards them in order to win their votes. Until our youths and working class elites get engaged in political process in Nigeria and not leave it to people they consider no do well and not seen election days as a public holidays or days to unwind,this trend will continue unabated.In reality,APC seems to have more members as at today. ADVANTAGE.....APC. 7. INEC /RIGGING . I think Nigeria election process is evolving and Nigerians should be learning on how to believe in their electoral process because no system is perfect anywhere in the world. The almighty US that practices advanced democracy and has been conducting elections for centuries still have their flaws but they always and more often accept this reality and accept the result. INEC procedures as it currently constituted makes it virtually impossible to rig any election brazenly in Nigeria the way it was done in the past .The card reader has greatly improved the authenticity of elections results and politicians now banks on inducement as a way of buying votes. 8. BATTLEGROUNDS.. While some have predicted some states as battleground without given any reasons behind their predictions,i am looking at the following states to be a keenly contested states in the election due to many factors part of which I have mentioned above. Kwara state ….. Due to Saraki factor versus the FG machinery. Imo State …...... Always voted for PDP candidates from the south but currently an APC controlled state PDP is hoping to flip again. Benue.............A recent defected governor with little political clout versus the strong machinery of Akume and APC which APC is hoping to flip back. Plateau state..... A former PDP stronghold but now has an APC governor. Edo state..........Favored GEJ in 2015 narrowly but going to be a tough battle for PDP to win with an APC governor and GEJ is not contesting. 9. PDP/APC STRUCTURES... If party structures are the only determining factors in wining elections,then we may as well give it to APC because of many states and structures they currently control. While it may be argue again that PDP has gained some foothold in APC territories,APC can be said to have made enormous inroads into PDP territories of south south and south east regions of the country. Though no major elections have been held in these regions to test these shifts except the Anambra governorship election back in 2017 which saw APC defeating PDP in that state. This is a major pointer that the coming elections are not going to be a walkover for PDP in these regions. 10. KANO TSUNAMIS... I intentionally singled out Kano state for mentioning as being the state with the highest number of votes in any election for years and the misconceptions from certain quarters as regards the influence the former state governor and currently a serving senator wield in the political scene of that state. while I give kudos to him for at least have some cult follower ship, same cannot be said of ATIKU who is running for a president. From historical fact,PDP has not been able to do anything to PMB consistent votes even when they were in power,recent result in 2011 shows CPC ,a political party formed few months to an election garnered 1.6m votes ANPP got 526k and PDP despite being in government only got 440k votes. Kwankwaso Kwankwasiyya movement is only working for him alone and nothing else,majority of them will vote him as a senator but vote PMB as president. PDP should have learn from history and not rely too much on this guy to do magic for them in Kano. Also,it would be foolhardy to think Kwankwaso who is the immediate past governor of Kano state and currently serving as a senator would pull a surprise on PMB in Kano but think Akpabio,an immediate past governor of Akwa Ibom state and a serving senator both of which enjoy enormous goodwill from their people will not do the same in Akwa Ibom. MY FINAL PREDICTION........ A seamless Buhari victory. |
| Re: Buhari Apc Vs Atiku Pdp..........the Determining Factors.....a Must Read. by Guzel: 6:43pm On Feb 10, 2019 |
Nice |
| Re: Buhari Apc Vs Atiku Pdp..........the Determining Factors.....a Must Read. by AtikulatedNaija: 7:27pm On Feb 10, 2019 |
RUUUUUIBBBBBBBBIIIIIIIISSSSSSHHHHH THREAD.. |
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