It is safe to predict the Buhari/Osinbajo ticket will receive major lead from the Northwest and the Southwest, while managing an appreciable showing in the Northeast.

A comfortable lead is a risky prediction for the Buhari/Obi ticket in the North Central, as there is a rising disaffection with the ruling party in the zone.

Apart from the farmers/herdsmen crisis that has left the people of the zone frustrated, especially in Benue and Plateau States, the lack lustre performance of Governor Yahaya Bello of Kogi since his lucky emergence as governor of the state, may hurt the chances of President Buhari.

Also, Kwara will be a major battleground for the presidential election, as Senate President Bukola Saraki, will want to do all that is possible to retain his political hold on the state. Saraki’s resolution notwithstanding, the ‘Otoge’ movement sweeping across the state threatens his grip and bolsters President Buhari’s chances. Minister of Information, Lai Mohammed, who hails from the state, has also been working with opposition forces to ensure an APC victory.

The victory of the APC in the House of Representatives by-election, against Saraki’s candidate recently, may well be a sign of things to come.

These developments notwithstanding, some political pundits still believe that Saraki’s political structure may survive defeat, even if narrowly.

All things considered, the North-Central may determine who wins the February 16 election.

Another 2015 looming?
Many believe the 2015 presidential election was largely won, not only because all the 15 million Nigerians who voted for President Muhammadu Buhari believed in him, but many just wanted former President Goodluck Jonathan voted out by all means.

There was widespread discontent with the Jonathan administration and in the words of former President Olusegun Obasanjo, “anybody except Jonathan” would do. This drove many to vote President Buhari, giving him victory in his fourth attempt at the presidency.

The scenario in 2019 seems similar with that of 2015, as there is a growing sense that millions of Nigerians daily complain of hunger, poverty, insecurity and unemployment.

Will Nigerians, in a move reminiscent to the 2015 election, vote out another incumbent over the growing disaffection in the land? Can the widespread sentiment of growing hunger, poverty, insecurity and unemployment in the country lead to a protest vote against President Buhari?

The answers to these questions are not simple. For Nigerians who have been more hit by the growing rate of insecurity, especially in the North-Central, a protest vote against Buhari is a real possibility.

However, the cult-like following the president enjoys in the Northeast, where the Boko Haram insurgency holds sway, and in the core north, may be too strong to change the tide.

Some supporters of the president in the northeast argue that there have been improvements in security in the region since 2015. Others across the core north also commend the president for his investment in agriculture and infrastructure.

Generally, some Nigerians who supported the election of President Buhari in 2015 have backtracked, campaigning for a change of guard at the presidency, while others have dug in. The president has also gained new supporters especially in previously uncharted territories of the Southeast and South-South.

What this portends for Buhari’s chances at the polls is yet to be seen.

Full analysis here: https://www.ripplesnigeria.com/ripples-nigeria-2019-election-forecast-predicting-winner/