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A 15% Swing In The North In Fav Of PDP Will Be Enough - Politics - Nairaland

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A 15% Swing In The North In Fav Of PDP Will Be Enough by axponline: 9:01pm On Feb 12, 2019
From my analysis using 2015 results as a baseline, It appears all that is needed is a 15% swing from APC to PDP in the North to make PDP the winner provided all other regions stay the same as 2015. Yes a 15% swing from APC to PDP in all states in the North is very possible. Both APC & PDP will get the required > 25% of the votes in 2/3 of the states bit PDP will win on total number of votes. See below.

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Re: A 15% Swing In The North In Fav Of PDP Will Be Enough by dannybrasky(m): 9:02pm On Feb 12, 2019
Good calculation!

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Re: A 15% Swing In The North In Fav Of PDP Will Be Enough by richidinho(m): 9:21pm On Feb 12, 2019
we are aware, thats why we are sure of victory

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Re: A 15% Swing In The North In Fav Of PDP Will Be Enough by scholes0(m): 9:25pm On Feb 12, 2019
And will all the other regions stay the same as in 2015?

A lot of water has passed under the bridge. In terms of Dynamics, much has changed since then.

Will PDP still be getting 91% in the SS vs APC's 8% like in that year? I highly doubt.

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Re: A 15% Swing In The North In Fav Of PDP Will Be Enough by LibertyRep: 9:26pm On Feb 12, 2019
All of these permutations and counter permutations will end latest by next Monday.

Whilst it is true that PMB might have lost some key allies in the North, he has also make some inroads to hitherto hostile regions especially in the South South.

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Re: A 15% Swing In The North In Fav Of PDP Will Be Enough by axponline: 9:29pm On Feb 12, 2019
yes a lot has changed but i expect the voting pattern will not change noticeably except in the northern states. PDP percentages will be much better than 2015 in the north and will stay pretty much the same in other parts of the nation.

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Re: A 15% Swing In The North In Fav Of PDP Will Be Enough by chemgee: 9:41pm On Feb 12, 2019
wrong analysis bro...
- saraki + akpabuyo
- kwankwa... + sherka...
i think u shd balance ur report with - & + from both sides.. plus incumbency factor etc

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Re: A 15% Swing In The North In Fav Of PDP Will Be Enough by Asshurbanipal: 9:45pm On Feb 12, 2019
scholes0:
And will all the other regions stay the same as in 2015?

A lot of water has passed under the bridge. In terms of Dynamics, much has changed since then.

Will PDP still be getting 91% in the SS vs APC's 8% like in that year? I highly doubt.
How has apc fortunes improved in that region with all buhari's divisive comments and actions? Atiku seem to be penetrating buhari's stronghold more

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Re: A 15% Swing In The North In Fav Of PDP Will Be Enough by Asshurbanipal: 9:49pm On Feb 12, 2019
LibertyRep:
All of these permutations and counter permutations will end latest by next Monday.

Whilst it is true that PMB might have lost some key allies in the North, he has also make some inroads to hitherto hostile regions especially in the South South.
Are you kidding me? Which inroads? It was actually south south he called 5%. He later sacked two south south appointee in a very controversial way and replaced with his fulani brothers. Buhari has not tried to remedy his image in that region.

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Re: A 15% Swing In The North In Fav Of PDP Will Be Enough by Masama: 9:51pm On Feb 12, 2019
Buhari will lose for the good of Nigeria

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Re: A 15% Swing In The North In Fav Of PDP Will Be Enough by APCZombiie: 9:52pm On Feb 12, 2019
In 5*24 hrs time....oshiomole go be like...

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Re: A 15% Swing In The North In Fav Of PDP Will Be Enough by Nobody: 9:53pm On Feb 12, 2019
What is the vote swing for INEC, Police and Army swing to APC?

Put a factor on that and do your calculation again.

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Re: A 15% Swing In The North In Fav Of PDP Will Be Enough by artofseduction: 9:54pm On Feb 12, 2019
scholes0:
And will all the other regions stay the same as in 2015?

A lot of water has passed under the bridge. In terms of Dynamics, much has changed since then.

Will PDP still be getting 91% in the SS vs APC's 8% like in that year? I highly doubt.

Everyone who is voting PMB now voted for him in 2015.

Not everyone who voted for him will vote for him in 2019.

He has lost supporters but hasn't gain any.

His supporters re only banking of power of incumbency through rigging.

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Re: A 15% Swing In The North In Fav Of PDP Will Be Enough by Nobody: 9:55pm On Feb 12, 2019
So you think PDP would have 90% turn out rate again in South South and southeast states? angry grin grin grin

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Re: A 15% Swing In The North In Fav Of PDP Will Be Enough by Validated: 9:56pm On Feb 12, 2019
scholes0:
And will all the other regions stay the same as in 2015?

A lot of water has passed under the bridge. In terms of Dynamics, much has changed since then.

Will PDP still be getting 91% in the SS vs APC's 8% like in that year? I highly doubt.

Yes, even more. Do not forget that APC raked in about 2m fake votes due to manual voting in 2015. That is being checkemated in 2019

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Re: A 15% Swing In The North In Fav Of PDP Will Be Enough by Nobody: 9:57pm On Feb 12, 2019
Asshurbanipal:

How has apc fortunes improved in that region with all buhari's divisive comments and actions? Atiku seem to be penetrating buhari's stronghold more
Ss states had above 70% turn out rate which everyone knows is a hoax. With APC controlling fg, this wouldn't happen again

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Re: A 15% Swing In The North In Fav Of PDP Will Be Enough by Reader530(m): 10:06pm On Feb 12, 2019
papiforreal:
So you think PDP would have 90% turn out rate again in South South and southeast states? angry grin grin grin

You are not good in calculations. 90% is not the turnout figure but rather PDP to get the 90% of the total votes cast

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Re: A 15% Swing In The North In Fav Of PDP Will Be Enough by senatordave1(m): 10:11pm On Feb 12, 2019
Asshurbanipal:

How has apc fortunes improved in that region with all buhari's divisive comments and actions? Atiku seem to be penetrating buhari's stronghold more
Buhari has even penetrated more into pdp bases.on election field,party strength matters most not past statements....

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Re: A 15% Swing In The North In Fav Of PDP Will Be Enough by senatordave1(m): 10:12pm On Feb 12, 2019
Reader530:


You are not good in calculations. 90% is not the turnout figure but rather PDP to get the 90% of the total votes cast
Since atiku isn't a northerner nor has federal might,it will not happen.

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Re: A 15% Swing In The North In Fav Of PDP Will Be Enough by senatordave1(m): 10:13pm On Feb 12, 2019
axponline:
yes a lot has changed but i expect the voting pattern will not change noticeably except in the northern states. PDP percentages will be much better than 2015 in the north and will stay pretty much the same in other parts of the nation.
It will also change in the south biased boy.

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Re: A 15% Swing In The North In Fav Of PDP Will Be Enough by Nobody: 10:16pm On Feb 12, 2019
Reader530:


You are not good in calculations. 90% is not the turnout figure but rather PDP to get the 90% of the total votes cast
Turn out there was above the national average

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Re: A 15% Swing In The North In Fav Of PDP Will Be Enough by scholes0(m): 10:20pm On Feb 12, 2019
Validated:


Yes, even more. Do not forget that APC raked in about 2m fake votes due to manual voting in 2015. That is being checkemated in 2019

So you also don't think those figures from Delta, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Etc in 2015 were very likely doctored results aided by the PDP's power of incumbency>

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Re: A 15% Swing In The North In Fav Of PDP Will Be Enough by scholes0(m): 10:21pm On Feb 12, 2019
The gap between the APC and the PDP in the South-West this 2019 is likely to increase this year in fovor of APC.

This year , I am sensing more like 66% APC vs 33% PDP. 2 APC supporters to every 1 PDP supporter only sounds fair in the South West right now with the prevailing conditions on ground and the general sentiments i have observed.

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Re: A 15% Swing In The North In Fav Of PDP Will Be Enough by scholes0(m): 10:24pm On Feb 12, 2019
senatordave1:

Since atiku isn't a northerner nor has federal might,it will not happen.

Re: A 15% Swing In The North In Fav Of PDP Will Be Enough by Asshurbanipal: 10:26pm On Feb 12, 2019
senatordave1:

Since atiku isn't a northerner nor has federal might,it will not happen.
Atiku isn't a northerner? All northern contestants stepped down for him in 2011 to battle GEJ in primaries remember. Continue underestimating
Re: A 15% Swing In The North In Fav Of PDP Will Be Enough by Asshurbanipal: 10:27pm On Feb 12, 2019
scholes0:


Atiku is now from Bayelsa Lol
Re: A 15% Swing In The North In Fav Of PDP Will Be Enough by PHILipu1(m): 10:31pm On Feb 12, 2019
axponline:
From my analysis using 2015 results as a baseline, It appears all that is needed is a 15% swing from APC to PDP in the North to make PDP the winner provided all other regions stay the same as 2015. Yes a 15% swing from APC to PDP in all states in the North is very possible. Both APC & PDP will get the required > 25% of the votes in 2/3 of the states bit PDP will win on total number of votes. See below.


And you think that APC will not do better than 2015/ in south east and south south now that PDP no longer control INEC,police,DSS,CBN,aso rock,army etc?

The shocker of this election will come from south east.
Write it down

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Re: A 15% Swing In The North In Fav Of PDP Will Be Enough by senatordave1(m): 10:33pm On Feb 12, 2019
axponline:
From my analysis using 2015 results as a baseline, It appears all that is needed is a 15% swing from APC to PDP in the North to make PDP the winner provided all other regions stay the same as 2015. Yes a 15% swing from APC to PDP in all states in the North is very possible. Both APC & PDP will get the required > 25% of the votes in 2/3 of the states bit PDP will win on total number of votes. See below.


Op,stop trying to be clever by half.how did you come about such swing? If so,you must also add a 15% swing for apc in the ss,se.you seem to be underestimating the mighty potential of apc machinery down south.if you analyze well you will discover that federal might and massive rigging are responsible for massive pdp votes down south not any real votes.again atiku is not a native like gej in 2015.

Intact,if you had gone back to 2011 polls,you will discover a pattern.in 2011 pdp got 11 million votes from the ss,se while buhari got 60,000.buhari got 10 million votes from the north while pdp got 8 million.
In 2015 pdp got 7 million from the the ss,se while buhari got 600,000.pdp got 3.7 million while buhari got 12.4 million.take note that pdp had a candidate from the ss,se in 2011 and 2015 yet his votes here dropped.if you go by this,that means atiku votes will reduce further down south while buhari own should increase triple fold.

So go back to 2011 and recalculate with particular reference to the results down south.take considerstion of each parties performance at all elections from 2016.switch off your partisanship.

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Re: A 15% Swing In The North In Fav Of PDP Will Be Enough by PHILipu1(m): 10:35pm On Feb 12, 2019
axponline:
yes a lot has changed but i expect the voting pattern will not change noticeably except in the northern states. PDP percentages will be much better than 2015 in the north and will stay pretty much the same in other parts of the nation.
You are drunk then.
You mean Buhari ministers,political appointees,decampees etc from south east and south south will not change anything in thus zones?

If anybody ever told you that APC will beat PDP to second position in any governorship election in Anambra,would you have believe it?

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Re: A 15% Swing In The North In Fav Of PDP Will Be Enough by PHILipu1(m): 10:37pm On Feb 12, 2019
artofseduction:


Everyone who is voting PMB now voted for him in 2015.

Not everyone who voted for him will vote for him in 2019.

He has lost supporters but hasn't gain any.

His supporters re only banking of power of incumbency through rigging.
He didn't gain but his party took Kogi,Ondo and Ekiti away from PDP?

You will wake up to reality by this time next week

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Re: A 15% Swing In The North In Fav Of PDP Will Be Enough by helsinkiman(m): 10:52pm On Feb 12, 2019
axponline:
From my analysis using 2015 results as a baseline, It appears all that is needed is a 15% swing from APC to PDP in the North to make PDP the winner provided all other regions stay the same as 2015. Yes a 15% swing from APC to PDP in all states in the North is very possible. Both APC & PDP will get the required > 25% of the votes in 2/3 of the states bit PDP will win on total number of votes. See below.



Yes, if all other states remain the same but as the north has changed, so also the south. PMB wld do well this time arround in Akwa Ibom, Delta, Abia, Anambra, and probably win Edo. Also, Lagos is looking more like a one way traffic for APC...Expect nothing less than 1m votes for PMB this time arround and Katsina wld surpass Kano's 1.9m votes of 2015. Final anaylis...the election looks like 60:40 in favour of APC.

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