By Terfa Tilley-Gyado
February 16, 2011 01:00AM
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President Goodluck Jonathan could be set for a rocky ride in the April elections after Lagos and Kano emerged as the states with the highest registered voters. Figures released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) revealed that almost 12 million people registered to vote in the two populous states alone. With the overall turnout estimated at about 66 million, this amounts to almost one-fifth of the electorate in states expected to swing against the president. Since 1999, the PDP has never produced a governor in Lagos state. In 1999 and 2003, Bola Tinubu won as an Alliance for Democracy (AD) flagbearer. Even when the party metamorphosed into the Action Congress in 2006, they still proved too powerful for the PDP in the elections that brought the ever popular Babatunde Fashola into power. Even with the political newcomer, Nuhu Ribadu at the helm, it is difficult to see beyond overwhelming support for ACN in the nation’s most populous state. In Kano, President Jonathan will come up against the incumbent governor, Ibrahim Shekarau of the All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP). The PDP has enjoyed only moderate success in the Northern state with Rabiu Kwankwaso serving just one term from 1999. Since 2003, ANPP has been the party in power and it looks like it will amass a significant number of votes in April.

Battling uphill

Muhammadu Buhari, who contested in 2007 as an ANPP candidate, is also expected to have a very strong showing, not just in Kano, but other key Northern states. Paradoxically, Mr. Buhari’s popularity in Kano could be a boon for President Jonathan’s chances. If the former head of state and Mr. Shekarau were to split votes in the state, it could leave the PDP as a beneficiary. It is not surprising that a coalition is still being mooted between the ACN, CPC and the ANPP to minimalise such an eventuality. Even at this late stage, such an alliance could prove powerful.

It is, of course, simplifying things to predict that voters will just vote for the state ruling party. However, the minority status of the PDP in these two states could spell trouble for the president’s chances, according to a political analyst, Peter Webo.

“In 2007, INEC refused to give us a state-by-state breakdown, but it should be easier to predict this time around,” he said.

“Although there are 34 other states in the federation, if you cannot win Lagos and Kano, you are already battling uphill. I still believe that the other parties will unite to defeat PDP in those states.”

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What happened to Enugu and their noise makers on NL?

Ileke-IdI:

What happened to Enugu and their noise makers on NL?

Seriously, you need to purge yourself of tribalism.

It not really good for a female!