@poster

You really know the politics of nigeria all these people posting rubbish C.p.c have no structures in the country.

firstly, allow me to call you an idiot. thanks.

as for your "analysis", if you really believe that gej is going to win kaduna, adamawa or ANY of the states in the south west then please think again.

and even though you've put all those lovely south south and south east states in big bold font still doesnt hide the fact that they at the bottom of the pile in terms of population figures. and in elections it's ALL ABOUT THE NUMBERS and unfortunately for gej (and I guess you) the population figures in the south south and south east have pretty rendered those regions unimportant in these elections. it is VERY feasible for buhari to get the required 25% in all the NE NW NC SW states + FCT (26 states) and not have to pick up a SINGLE vote in the SS or SE AND still win the election given the fact that he is going to CLEAN UP in the 2 out of the 3 most highly populated regions.


has this cleared things up for you? i hope it has.

as they say in your country: have a nice day.

timbuk two:

firstly, allow me to call you an . thanks.

as for your "analysis", if you really believe that gej is going to win kaduna, adamawa or ANY of the states in the south west then please think again.

and even though you've put all those lovely south south and south east states in big bold font still doesnt hide the fact that they at the bottom of the pile in terms of population figures. and in elections it's ALL ABOUT THE NUMBERS and unfortunately for gej (and I guess you) the population figures in the south south and south east have pretty rendered those regions unimportant in these elections. it is VERY feasible for buhari to get the required 25% in all the NE NW NC SW states + FCT (26 states) and not have to pick up a SINGLE vote in the SS or SE AND still win the election given the fact that he is going to CLEAN UP in the 2 out of the 3 most highly populated regions.


has this cleared things up for you? i hope it has.

as they say in your country: have a nice day.

@ Highlighted,

It is obvious that you do not know your country. Most SWesterners will vote for GEJ based on southern sentiments.
Now, the SW is also populated by the rest of the country. The SS is NOT the bottom of the pile, the population is a bit sketchy for me personally.

jason123:

@ Highlighted,

It is obvious that you do not know your country. Most SWesterners will vote for GEJ based on southern sentiments.
Now, the SW is also populated by the rest of the country. The SS is NOT the bottom of the pile, the population is a bit sketchy for me personally.

dude, i live in lagos. where do YOU live? most people in the south west will not vote for gej based on any "southern sentiments". unlike other parts of the country those guys vote based on things other than sentiment. and whilst lagos indeed does have residents from other regions (NW + NE + NC as well as SE and SS) the five other states are pretty much are yoruba only zones.

Justcash:

You really think that there will be no threats, manipulations, intimidation, bribery to swing votes around? One would wonder how GEJ was able to defeat Atiku(Backed by ACF and IBB) in the North. Forget it, the numbers will flow in. It would have been the other way round if GEJ was totally hated and unpopular. He is loved and revered by a section of the country. This is the way it is, SS+SE+60% of SW+40% of the entire North.

if the numbers flow in for GEJ in the NE + NW  or SW then this country will burn. the ONLY reason that PDP was able to get away with its brazen rigging in the past was because this country has ALWAYS had an anointed leader as the front runner in the past 3 "elections". this time, even thought GEJ and his gang are trying to place this shield of invincibility around him, it's just not working. the nigerian public aren't buying it anymore. he wont win in the north and he wont win in the south west. he'll win legitimately in the south south, and south east and split the north central but seriously, that isnt going to be enough. sorry.

Jonathan Leads with 60%, PDP May Lose Four States

By Imam Imam
21 Mar 2011
Font Size: a / A

President Goodluck Jonathan

The latest poll conducted by THISDAY/Ipsos ahead of the 2011 general election indicates that President Goodluck Jonathan may secure 60.3 per cent of popular votes in the presidential election. However, his party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), may lose the governorship polls in four states.

In the poll conducted in the 36 states of the federation and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) between February 25 and March 16, 2011, 60.3 per cent of respondents said they would vote for Jonathan in the presidential election, while his closest rival, Major General Muhammadu Buhari of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) scored 22.4 per cent.

Malam Ibrahim Shekarau, the flag bearer of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), scored 5.9 per cent, while the candidate of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Malam Nuhu Ribadu, scored 4.7 per cent. Shekarau was generally acclaimed to have won the presidential debate last week but this poll had been conducted before then.

Buhari has a clear lead among polled samples in Kebbi, Sokoto, Zamfara, Jigawa and Bauchi and further holds narrow leads in Katsina, Kano, Kaduna, Yobe, Borno and Gombe.

Jonathan leads in all Southern states with the exception of Ekiti, where Ribadu has a 54-per-cent score, and Osun, which is considered too close to call, even though Jonathan leads. Ribadu and Shekarau had a strong showing in the state, thereby making it difficult to call for Jonathan.

A noticeable trend is the likelihood that PDP may win governorship in a state and lose presidential in the same state – or vice versa.

In Lagos, for instance, over 80 per cent of the polled voters said they would vote for Jonathan (PDP presidential), while 92 per cent said they would vote for Babatunde Fashola (ACN) in the governorship election.

It is even more common in some Northern states where PDP could win governorship and lose presidential in Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Katsina, Sokoto and Zamfara.

Also, PDP is in danger of losing the governorship elections in four of the states it currently controls – Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue and Imo.

In Bauchi, the CPC candidate, Yusuf Maitama Tugar, was rated the highest by respondents. He scored 55 per cent, leaving the incumbent Malam Isa Yuguda of the PDP with 34 per cent; the ANPP flag bearer Nazeef Gamawa with 6 per cent; and ACN candidate Baba Tela with 4 per cent.

In the president’s home state of Bayelsa, former Managing Director of the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC) and former presidential adviser on amnesty, Mr. Timi Alaibe, led with 56 per cent among the polled potential voters, while the incumbent Chief Timipre Sylva scored 44 per cent. Alaibe is of the Labour Party (LP), while Sylva is flying the flag of PDP.

A similar scenario is playing out in Benue State where the PDP governor, Hon. Gabriel Suswam, is trailing the ACN candidate, Professor Steve Ugbah. Suswam has 19 per cent, while his rival has 72 per cent.

Imo is also endangered for the ruling party as Governor Ikedi Ohakim trails Chief Rochas Okorocha of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA). The state is considered too close to call because even though Okorocha polled 34 per cent in the survey, 41 per cent of the voters are still undecided. Ohakim has 14 per cent, while ACN’s Ifeanyi Araraume has 12 per cent.

The battle ground states for governorship, according to the survey, are Kebbi, Zamfara, Kaduna, Borno, Oyo and Delta.

But the PDP remains competitive in Zamfara, where Governor Aliyu Shinkafi leads the pack by 43 per cent, closely pursued by ANPP’s Abdulazeez Yari with 37 per cent.

The PDP is also competitive in Oyo and Kaduna, where it holds narrow margins. In Borno, the poll favours the ruling party. It is too close to call in Delta but the ruling party is very competitive there.

Ipsos is one of the leading pollster companies in the world with more than 30 years of experience researching political attitudes.

It has the most long-term and comprehensive set of polling data of all polling agencies in the world.

Speaking to THISDAY yesterday on the latest polling results, the CEO for Sub-Saharan Africa, David Somers, said: “We initially designed a very large sample to cover the entire country. It’s a sample of 11,000 approximately of what we did in every state that will allow us to have estimate per state and in general. We conducted face to face interviews and as we talk to people in local dialects and personally on the ground, we asked people a series of questions about how they feel about life and about things in general and about things they want from their politicians. And ultimately for whom they will vote for whether at the presidential level or at the gubernatorial level. It’s honestly a traditional poll which we do all over the world.

“So the way we arrived at figures was to go to all the states, interview the people within those states and then aggregate all the data from the states up to a national level. We rate data accordingly so that each state will be represented correctly within the total national figure by the census and also by the voter registration. So we used as a waiting measure plus some other factors which we discovered while we went into this and that is how we got the national figures.”

Tags: News, Nigeria

2 states seem to be missing

they are too intellectually delinquent and thus incapable of thinking rationally. they have given themselves to reprobate minds and therefore lack the audacity to look the truth in the face and run with it. they are myopic and like a paparazzi, they run from pillar to post trying to hoodwink the right thinking people into accepting their audacious slogan called change. change is indeed coming, but not in the form of BB or Ribadu. Change is coming in a free and fair election that will usher in the best of GEJ. plenty talk, no action, that is the BB vocal.

@ Paddy lo

Dude! where did you get that which you have posted??

GEJ can win ANYWHERE but not BAUCHI STATE. I repeat NOT BAUCHI STATE.

BTW. . . Buhari was in jos today and there was no stonning so, what do you gonna do with your post lies??

could you kindly edit that part?

^^ Because he is 'one of them'. If others have been allowed to 'chop', why shouldn't one of theirs?

Are you high on something or what?? There is NO WAY PDP will get 1% of the total vote count in Bauchi.

FYI Bauchi is the only state that the Incumbent govornor/party lost all seats to the oppposition in an election.

The so called FCT minister you are banking on was brought from decay to defeat the incumbent governor in a senatorial election.

While you are still on your cheap grass,remember that a 400 level university student defeated a PDP national house of assembly majority leader in election in Bauch.

Who is Bala kaura and Isa Yuguda?? Bunch of goons that won election with the sympathy of electorate?? As far as your delusion will not include Bauchi state, then GEJ will be fine. lol  

THERE IS NO GOD FATHER IN BAUCHI.  You can't rig a class rep election in Bauchi State and stay alive.

paddy_lo:

Read my post again. . .i said that Jonathan will win 25% of the votes in Bauchi. . .a constitutional requirtement. .

I never said he would win the state. . .

I am a student of research methodology, and i have great reservations for the polls, i wonder if they considered the skewness of the voting age population in choosing the respondents, e.g 75% of the voting population are youths, who tends to be differently inclined in there voting pattern to the aged ones, for example  My 70 yrs old dad would prefer voting for status quo versus change, but not we his children.

Even as popular as Fashola is in Lagos , he would not get up to 92% of the total votes cast, i am placing him in the range of (74%- 78%) of the total votes cast, all things being equal.

Jonathan is not as popular to get up to 60.8% of the total votes cast,!!!!!!!!!!!?

i challenge any one to a bet , with the voting projection i released earlier on voting pattern projection (but with a -4% to 4% deviation)





                                                  GEJ                                      BUHARI                                    RIBADU


NW                                  5.94 Million  (30%)                          11.28Million    (57%)                2.57Million  (13%)



NE                                   3.33 Million   (31%)                           5.48 Million  (51%)                 1.94 Million (18%)


NC                                  4.27 Million    (40%)                         3.97 Million   (37%)                  2.45 Million (23%) .                                   
                                           

S.W                                  4.43 Million   (31%)                          4.14 Million  (29%)                  5.71 Million (40%)


S.S                                   7.56 Million    (80%)                         0.87 Million    (9%)                 1.04 Million (11%)


S.E                                    5.22 Million  (69%)                          0.91 Million    (12%)             1.44 Million  (19%)


TOTAL VOTES                    30.76 Million ( 42%)                  26.65 Million ( 36.2%)             15.15 Million ( 21%)

-4% - +4% deviation         (38% - 46%)                               (32.2% - 40.2%)                 (17% - 25%)



With the above , the presidential election winner is too close to call. though still tilts in favour of GEJ

HI

@TIMBUK TWO, YOU ARE JUST A BIG FOOL, BUHARI MY FEET!