Nigerian polls put president ahead in election race

Former anti-corruption chief Nuhu Ribadu is hoping to secure strong backing for his presidential bid in the southwest, the stronghold of his Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) party, but the poll put him on just 4.7 percent of the overall vote.

It said 92 percent of respondents in Nigeria's most populous city of Lagos, in the southwest, would vote for sitting state governor Babatunde Fashola (ACN) in the governorship election, but 80 percent would vote Jonathan for the presidency.

Jonathan inherited power after the death of late northern President Umaru Yar'Adua last year and is seeking what would have been Yar'Adua's second term.

Buhari is hoping to capitalise on northern resentment at his candidacy but would need Ribadu to perform well in the southwest if he is to have a hope of forcing a run-off.

A second poll carried out by local firm NOI Polls, which has a partnership with Gallup, said 68 percent of Nigerians approved of Jonathan's performance so far as president.

The poll, commissioned by Nigerian civil society group the ANAP Foundation, said 53 percent of respondents expected Jonathan to win the April polls.

It said 73 percent of those questioned were aware that Buhari was running for president, while only 48 percent were aware that Ribadu was standing.

Jonathan has just completed a high-profile tour of the 36 states. Buhari's campaign is ongoing, while Ribadu's has been comparatively low key.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/03/22/nigeria-election-polls-idUKLDE72L0R220110322?pageNumber=2

correct and real.

still finding it hard to believe that ACN influence in Lagos is not a Barrier for Jonathan to get more votes there,

Lol. I Love how the West executes its propaganda to make sure the dummy it wants in Power remains there. . . . . .

Bintus2much:

still finding it hard to believe that ACN influence in Lagos is not a Barrier for Jonathan to get more votes there, 

I think voters are starting to vote for personalties, not parties.

Not a bad thing btw. . . that is more sophisticated voting than in many countries (including the US.)

Anyway, if the people want Goodluck, I guess they'll get him 

I hope we won't regret this decision 

EDIT: With that said, perhaps Ipsos made some error when building their voter model. I still haven't seen state-by-state breakdowns yet.

it

^
Sharap dia!
Northerners can be trusted, we just don't have the right bunch vying for office at the mo.

ekt_bear:

I think voters are starting to vote for personalties, not parties.

Not a bad thing btw. . . that is more sophisticated voting than in many countries (including the US.)

Anyway, if the people want Goodluck, I guess they'll get him 

I hope we won't regret this decision 

EDIT: With that said, perhaps Ipsos made some error when building their voter model. I still haven't seen state-by-state breakdowns yet.

That info will never be published, its for political parties to buy. Ipsos made more than a billion dollars selling such info last year.

@OP
Unfortunate but true!

ekt_bear:

I think voters are starting to vote for personalties, not parties.

Voting in nigeria has majorly been always inclined towards candidates and not to the party.

Most nigerians who vote do not really belong to any party or strongly vote for just one party.

Only PDP has retained its name since we started this democratic dispensation from 1999.

AD -  AC - ACN - only God knows what next will be the name, APP - ANPP i think.

APGA - PPA and more, we have JP, LP and more will come in 2015.

It has always been about the candidates and not the party, buhari will win the northern votes even if he is in pdp.

80% How credible is this? Oh dear. . .

Big lie - in Lagos where I leave? When did the poll start? How many people where sampled?

they will never know what hit them, but they will use the "it was rigged" line.

very soon,they will report that all the acn candidates in Lagos and even tinubu will vote gej.they said more than this about yardua in 2007 but when the true result came out,ATIKU DEALT A SEVERE BLOW ON yardua/PDP.
GEJ/pdp WILL SEE THE HANDWRITING FIRST ON APRIL 2,they will now see how far on april 9,all the acn mobilization is not yams.
i dey laugh oh.if this is the true reflection of things,gej will not need to transfer the whole presidential office to Lagos.Tinubu's mother is the iya oloja of Lagos,she will tell market men and women to vote gej?(only in your dreams.dream on)

Ipsos initially conducted a face-to-face survey of 11,100 Nigerians. Interviews were conducted in-home by trained interviewers between  25 January 2011 and 8 February 2011. The first poll, covered in this press release, covered a range social and political issues.

The survey comprised only registered voters and those planning to register to vote in time for the elections in April 2011. Respondents were therefore asked at the beginning of the interview if they have registered to vote in the elections in April 2011. Over nine in ten (92%) indicated they were registered to vote, and the remaining 8% indicated that they were still planning to register to vote and so their opinions were included in the results.

Ipsos undertook a stratified, multi-stage probability sampling technique in order to neutralise potential forms of bias that might affect the accuracy and reliability of the data collected.  This technique applies random selection methods at every stage of sampling and ensures that all Nigerian adults of voting age (males, females, urban and rural dwellers, and all social classes) are given a known chance of being selected to partake in the polling.

The survey covered all of Nigeria. Within each region the selection of sampling locations – a mix of urban, semi-urban and rural – was generated randomly in order for all locations to be given an equal and known chance of being selected.At least five, but no more than ten, interviews were conducted in each primary sampling unit (PSU) to facilitate spread of interviews and adequate representativeness.

In total 1,730 sampling points were randomly selected across the federation. This was done to ensure the most comprehensive coverage of the population possible.

Interviews were conducted face-to-face in all 36 states of the federation and the FCT (Abuja). This approach ensured that people who do not own or have access to a telephone were given an equal chance of being selected. Regionally and locally based interviewers were used to carry out the interviews (meaning these interviewers will be more familiar with the local region and languages), and interviews were always conducted in the respondent’s preferred language (English, Pidgin, Igbo, Yoruba or Hausa) to ensure congruence with language and ethnicity of the respondents.

All interviewers went through a two-day training program to ensure consistent administration of the questionnaire across the sample, a practice which is in line with internationally recognized research standards.

The data were weighted using 2006 census figures to ensure a match between the survey sample and the Nigerian population.

Fieldwork for the second poll was conducted between 25 February to 16 March 2011 via a mix of face-to-face in-home and telephonic re-contact interviews of the initial sample of 11,100 interviewees. Where respondents could not be re-contacted they were substituted by a face to face interview with a respondent who was matched in terms of age, gender, SEC, education level and area.

All sample surveys are subject to statistical error, depending on sample size, interviewing methodology and response rate. The margin of error for the national figures in this poll is 0.93. This means that in 95 out of every 100 cases, the findings will fall within +/- 0.93% range when looking at the national results. The margin of error for state level figures is +/- 6.3%.

Ipsos fully adheres to the ICC-ESOMAR International Code of Marketing and Social Research.

so 4 out of 5 people in lagos want gej is win 

i'll tell you what, all those that live in lagos state should do an experiment and ask 5 random people who they will vote for in the election. you'll be lucky if you get 1 person saying goodluck jonathan.

what's really funny is that these IPSOS cats had 1,730 polling stations around the country. that's on average 47 polling stations per state including the FTC. they "interviewed" 11,100 people in total. which means they interviewed 236 people per sate. (assuming polling stations and people interviewed where equally interviewed between states).

236 people per state. 236 PEOPLE PER STATE!!

and team gej is getting their knickers wet over 236 people. goodluck indeed.

I like how they underestimate the opposition parties.

BB is going to hit them unexpectedly come April.

This same Lagos abi? hehehehehe, wait and see.

i can see buahri or rebadu smiling after the election. I pray that jonathan does not underestimate their polical influence

@ becomrichn , i agree with u on some issues but not a break up, i am not a politician and i dont have any candidate in mind but i want  a change 4 lagos, fashola or what does he cal himself is d wrong man 4 lagos he runs anti pple policies, he demolished ppls house, sent pple out of business with his KAI & numerous taxation, LASTMA diturbs motorist exhorting money 4rm  them , LASSA exploiting lagosins, just 2 make advert u have pay 2tru your nose , all this anti pple agencies are so rich 2 the extent each tout incharge of this rubbish agencies are eyeing d guber post, but some fools in lagos claims he has performed,wel i dont blame them after jakande it is a strange thing in d country to see a gov to repair few roads out of millions of rd that exist in d state, wel l my pple pls vote wisely oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

@ tinubu4life , dont because of d peanuts u make fom this pple  now and destroy d future of this state with your statemment pls think wisely.

Lagos: FASHOLA has done WELL! But I need the refund of the 10% of my PAYE he pays to TINUBU.

Nigeria: WE, THE PEOPLE OF NIGERIA WILL VOTE:[size=8pt][size=8pt] FRESH AIR 2011[/size][/size][/size][size=8pt][/size][size=8pt]

Hmm, these online polls show Jonathan losing badly to CPC's Buhari. Look at the links yourselves.
http://www.mynaijapolls.com/2011/featured/the-presidential-electoral-candidates/
http://www.eminentleaders.haukint.com/2011/polls/

It is very close to what will happen. But I will go more with 67% GEJ, 20% Ribadu, 13% BB

There is no reason to expect much less why?
Lagos has some of the most informed individuals in Nigeria
GEJ is a friend of the entertainment industry and a strong advocate of freedom. Remmber Lagos is home to all the DBanj's and all the Silverbirds etc.
It is the most "detribalized" part of Nigeria.
It has a good mix of different ethnicities.

efisher:

It is very close to what will happen. But I will go more with 67% GEJ, 20% Ribadu, 13% BB

There is no reason to expect much less why?
Lagos has some of the most informed individuals in Nigeria
GEJ is a friend of the entertainment industry and a strong advocate of freedom. Remmber Lagos is home to all the DBanj's and all the Silverbirds etc.
It is the most "detribalized" part of Nigeria.
It has a good mix of different ethnicities.

You are obviously a supporter of GEJ as I used to be, hence the subjectivity. However, my experience with talking to many people in Abuja and Lagos, as well as other parts of Nigeria indicates that people want a strong leader who can tackle the untouchables. This is why I will vote Buhari. I also believe that Nigerian newspapers are generally used to manipulate people in favour of the owners affiliation. I will trust the 2 polls that I posted better than any newspaper polls.

How can people be this stupid or thought that we all morons to believe that a single candidate will win 80% of the vote in a cosmopolitan city like Lagos?
What is this special love Lagos suddenly has for GEJ and when did it start that ACN will lose Lagos with such a margin.
I had said it before that, this is a rigging ploy to prepare people to accept such a riiged outcome and they are testing the ground with this.

Not even Saddam Hassain gets 80% of the vote when he contest against himself in the past. Awolowo of all people never get such a figure anywhere in Yorubaland.

I no fit laugh. Election day is coming and Nigerians will vote.
Online polls are far different from what's on ground. More than 80 per cent of the educated people I interact with or have come accross will vote for GEJ for President.
What Nigerians have come to understand is that most arms of the government have been run by one political party all this while. So this time people intend to vote for the best available candidate, instead of political party, this applying to all tiers of gov't + NASS.
We just pray that the elections will be free, fair and transparent, where the votes will be counted right in front of voters and announced so there'll be no cause for unnecessary noise!

Dav.e:

I no fit laugh. Election day is coming and Nigerians will vote.
Online polls are far different from what's on ground. More than 80 per cent of the educated people I interact with or have come accross will vote for GEJ for President.
What Nigerians have come to understand is that most arms of the government have been run by one political party all this while. So this time people intend to vote for the best available candidate, instead of political party, this applying to all tiers of gov't + NASS.
We just pray that the elections will be free, fair and transparent, where the votes will be counted right in front of voters and announced so there'll be no cause for unnecessary noise!

So based on your theory about Nigerian sudden dislike of voting parties Jonathan is individually better than say Pat Utomi or even Chris Okotie that is why people are clamouring for him?
This is a new gospel according PDP of asking gullible Nigerians to forget the last 12 years of their ineptness and sneak in Jonathan who will notw rule without PDP.  Any educated person who think a vote for GEJ is not a vote for PDP, OBJ, Aneni and others need not calling anyone an illiterate.
Without PDP who exactly is Jonathan as an individual person? Without PDP can jonathan be able to win a house of assembly election in 1999 based on being Jonathan. They want Nigeria to now believe that there once boasted biggest party in Africa is no longer relevant as an election asset and as clueless as ever the so-called educated are buying the crap.

These polls have already been discredited by people with a far greater understanding of these matters than most of the goons on here.

Rubbish poll, this is the same poll thisday used 2 weeks ago. This poll is telling us 68% of Nigerians are fools, 68% of Nigerians dont want change, 68% of Nigerians are comfortable with no power, good roads , happy with the PDP bad governance for 12 years. Common we are wiser than this.

This poll says 80% of Lagosians are crazy, PDP has never won an election in Lagos with or without the Igbo votes as some commentators are saying the igbo votes of 42& in LAgos will go to GEJ. This is an insult to our Igbo brothers in Lagos who have always stood for good governance.

GEJ cannot win even 40% of Lagos votes.

@Lagosboy that is true talk, majority of them are not lagos resident not to talk of voter'card that will enable them to vote. By the time we vote PDP out of Nigeria not Lagos alone his unblela wife will not believe her eyes.

larez:

You are obviously a supporter of GEJ as I used to be, hence the subjectivity. However, my experience with talking to many people in Abuja and Lagos, as well as other parts of Nigeria indicates that people want a strong leader who can tackle the untouchables. This is why I will vote Buhari. I also believe that Nigerian newspapers are generally used to manipulate people in favour of the owners affiliation. I will trust the 2 polls that I posted better than any newspaper polls.

Larez, we are not talking about who you will vote or who ip-addresses will vote. Besides Reuters is not a "Nigerian newspaper". The question is what percentage each candidate will get in Lagos. There is no need for delusions. It is obvious GEJ has majority votes in Lagos. I however do not think the margin will be up to 80%. I also think Ribadu will be next to GEJ in Lagos. BB may get as much votes as Ribadu but the margin may not be too wide either way. Let the election come and go. My post is there for reference after the election.

as for me am only going out there to VOTE GOODLUCK no other person

F reuters check the Lagosians poll on NL