It’s between PDP and others
• Battle among ruling party, CPC, ACN
From JAMES OJO, Abuja
Saturday, April 09, 2011
Photo: Sun News Publishing

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Eligible voters with valid voter’s card will today return to the polling booths, in the 109 senatorial districts and 360 federal constituencies to elect who would represent them at the National Assembly for the next four years, after the botched first attempt. Logistic problems led to the postponement of the National Assembly election today, according to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

Today’s election is significant, in the sense that it will signpost the patterns of subsequent elections, which will lead to the enthronement of a new president and state governors. With the shift of the elections by one week, it is expected that political parties had used the opportunity to further sell their candidates to the electorate.

Since the re-birth of democracy in 1999, the National Assembly has been dominated by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which won more seats than other registered political parties. The PDP has consolidated its grips on the National Assembly with each election held. At the conclusion of the last general elections, in 2007, the party dominated the two arms of the National Assembly. Indeed, its numerical strength was overbearing and made the opposition parties too weak to pose any threat to its stand on any issues. Out of 109 seats in the Senate, PDP garnered 86 seats and in the House of Representatives, it occupied 245 seats, out of 360 seats.

However, towards the last days of the fourth session of the National Assembly, in this political dispensation, the party suffered serious hemorrhage, as it were, due to a combination of factors.

The primaries conducted to pick who would fly the flag of the party in today’s elections saw the exit of many federal lawmakers to other parties. True to the sayings that the bigger the head, the bigger the headache, in the defection frenzy, at the National Assembly, PDP was the worst hit, as members defected in droves to other parties, after failing to pick tickets to contest the National Assembly elections. The beneficiaries of the defection mainly are the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) and the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN). For instance, the ACN became a safe haven for PDP senators, like Ikechukwu Obiora (Anambra State), Joseph Akaargerger and George Akume (Benue), Ehigie Uzamere (Edo), Saminu Turaki (Jigawa), Sylvester Anyanwu (Imo), Annie Okonkwo (Anambra) and Salihu Ohize (Kogi).
PDP, in Oyo and Ogun states, is embroiled in protracted internal crisis, leading to the exit of National Assembly members from the states to another party.

In the House of Representatives, the same thing subsists. PDP members, who lost out in the primaries, defected to other political parties. They include Ayoade Adeseun, chairman of appropriation committee (Oyo), Isaq Abiodun Akinlade of the science and technology committee (Ogun), Mayor Eze (Imo), Kamil Akinlabi (Oyo) and Darlington Okereke (Anambra), who left for ACN.

In the North, the CPC was the sole beneficiaries of the fallout of the PDP primaries. Before the conclusion of the primaries, many National Assembly members had jumped ship because of the soaring popularity of the party, which came on stream after the last general elections. Hurricane CPC provided shelter for Senator Umar Argungu and Bala Ibn Na’Allah in Kebbi State. Also, Yusuf Tuggar, in Bauchi, found succor in the party.

With this development, it is believed that when the National Assembly opens in June, there may be old faces in new political parties. However, many Nigerians are wondering if PDP would win majority seats in the Senate and the House of Representatives in today’s elections. If the current feelings and sentiments regarding the PDP is anything to go by, the party maybe in for a shocker. Already, the fear of losing its control in the two chambers of the National Assembly is said to be giving the leadership of the party goose pimples.
Many factors have been fingered in PDP’s misfortune. The increasing popularity if CPC is one factor. The reversal of PDP’s victory in the South West through court rulings on governorship elections, in favour of the ACN is another factor. The outcome of PDP’s primaries is the third.

With what is on the ground, in today’s elections, it will be a straight fight between the candidates of PDP and CPC in the North West. However, in Kano State, PDP will have the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) to contend.

In the North Central, PDP currently had 15 seats out of 18 in the Senate and 36 seats in the House of Representatives, leaving nine for the other parties. However, as things stand, even though the Senate President, David Mark, is from the zone, it is doubtful, if PDP will maintain such comfortable lead.
In Kwara State, the centre can no longer hold, with the way of supremacy between Governor Bukola Saraki and his father, Dr. Olusola Saraki, over the governorship election. Today’s election will define who really holds the aces in the state. In the state, the battle is between PDP, led by Governor Saraki and the Allied Congress Party of Nigeria (ACPN), led by the senior Saraki, who is supporting his daughter, Gbemisola, for governor.

On the surface, Nasarawa State is a strong hold of the CPC, while all political bigwigs in the Plateau State have embraced the Labour Party and ACN.
South-South zone was a home of the PDP, as it won 17 of the 18 seat in the Senate and 54 House of Representatives seats, leaving opposition parties with only one seat. But this dominance started giving way when the ACN won the Edo State governorship seat in the court. Now, ACN has won over many bigwigs in the state. However, the candidature of President Goodluck Jonathan still gives PDP an edge.
South West is another zone, where the fortunes of the PDP had plummeted long before the election. The party lost three states: Ekiti, Osun and Ondo to the ACN and Labour Party respectively, through the court. The achievements of the ACN government in Lagos State and the performances of some of her representatives in the National Assembly have shut out PDP completely in the state.

South East zone provides another platform, whereby the outcome of the forthcoming elections could not be predictable, unlike before, when the zone was a comfortable home the PDP. Anambra state is a classic example, where nobody can stake his or her neck on which party would carry the day. The entrance of Chris Ngige into the senatorial race, on the platform of ACN, changed the tempo of the game, even when the like of Professor Dora Akunyili, Senator Joy Emordi, Senator Okonkwo and Andy Uba are making waves.
Whatever is left as the soul of PDP in the state is shared among the godfathers, while All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) and ACN are trying to outmanoeuvre each other on the campaign field. Accord Party is also presenting two incumbent senators, Obiora and Okonkwo. In Enugu, the Peoples Democracy for Change (PDC) is a threat to the PDP. Ex-governor Chimaroke Nnamani is running on the ticket of PDC and the party hopes to get at least two seats in the state. In Imo, APGA is strongly on the heels of PDP, while ANPP poses a challenge to PDP in Ebonyi, because of Dr. Ogbannaya Onu, the party’s national chairman.
In Abia State, a titanic battle is expected between Progressive Peoples Alliance (PPA) and the PDP. Former governor, Orji Uzor Kalu, is flying the flag of the PPA in the senatorial race against Senator Uche Chukwumerije.

As Nigerian voters exercise their franchise today, with the parliamentary elections, the expectation is that their will be upset, as there are indications that PDP may lose its grip on the National Assembly.