If you have read the book titled the confessions of an economic hitman or the wealth and poverty of nations or how an economy grows and why it crashes you will realize that the governance, economic and financial models handed over to third world nations are nothing but scams.

Reading from history your will realize that the Rail and Road infrastructural development of about 100 years ago were by Equity funding and crowd investing not debt financing.

As a matter of fact International infrastructural development banks like IMF, World Bank, Paris Club were created to continue the pattern of colonization and slavery using economic model.

The pattern is that borrow money to finance strategic infrastructures which are important for promoting economic growth and development but over hype the whole econometric so the nation falls into the booty trap of thinking they are on the right track unknown to them that are being deceived.
These debt financing comes with unimaginable clauses that only those who do not agree with Keynesian economic model will easy fathom out.

The painful part of it is that other beneficial economic model that are older than 200 years are not taught in our classroom, instead it was Keynes shabby and quick fix model which is not up to 100 years old that our financial leaders and political elites follow after. Obviously it benefits them and not the people.
The clauses in the debt including that core of the money goes back to the awarding body and country, they selecting the construction companies that will carry out the project. An already planned game as old as 60 years.
They send Economists and Marketers of International Engineering companies to leaders of third world nations to convince them on the need of new infrastructures, telling them of the benefits of having them and stating that they can even borrow the money from World Bank or IMF.

This booty traps make us instead of gaining from such decision become losers, making us major on the minor and minor on the major.

The debts makes us unable to take care of core areas like education, health, rural development among others.

Presently out of every 1 Naira Nigeria gets as revenue 85k goes into paying back logs of debts.

Kaduna state government borrowed $350 M, Lagos Borrowed billions of Naira. Federal Ministry of Transportation borrowed billions for rail construction but you hardly see the benefits all because we are in a rat race.

The truth is that infrastructures though good does not make sustainable development. If flourishing economy must be debts must be low, Human Development and Human Capital Development must be very High.

The philosophy behind it is so simple, let the people develop their country instead of trusting an outsider.

Now let me come to the Crux of the matter, railway construction financing.

Some years ago,that was 2012 I read of India completing the third longest rail project in Asia, a tunnel of several kilometers with just 40 Billion Naira as at then. Just a year or two later I watched the news of Ngozi Okonjo Iweala the then Finance Minister, (one of the Keynesian Economic Model juggernaut trained by Americans) went to China to sign for the debt financing of Abuja Kaduna Rail Project. The amount appended for the project was $300 Million equivalent to about 60 Billion Naira then.
Good Idea it seems then, but I was not happy why can't we finance it through crowd investing or Public Private Participation or Joint Ventures. I picked my calculator and realized that Nigeria was about 180 million people as at then. If the government had placed a development VAT of 100 Naira on 50 Million Nigeria a year earlier, they would have raised 5 Billion Naira monthly and 60 Billion Naira by the end of the year.

So how do you finance these projects the country needs so urgently?

The painful part of it is that we are making sluggish acceleration in terms of our infrastructural development because the government did not deregulate road and rail construction just as they did to Telecommunications.

The Nigerian Railway Commission is not supposed to be a monopoly instead a regulator. This will create competition and lots of rail routes.



If Bill Gate bought 17 Billion Shares in Canadian Rail Network and Warren Buffett did same also in one of Chinese Local rail project why are we still going as snails depending on debts.

As I conclude, I remembered a lyrical part of one of Fela Anikulapo Kuti songs which goes like this.
Mr Teacher don't teach me nonsense.

Instead of having educated political elites.
In my opinion we only have consciously manipulated educated ones who are running the operational models handed over to them by our former colonial masters. They gave them scholarships, they trained them not for our benefits but for theirs. It seems we are moving forward but in the actual sense we are not doing better than the early part of our independence even though the infrastructures are there.

What is the essence of the infrastructural development when millions of engineering graduates are unemployment or underemployed ending up as primary and secondary school teachers.

What is the Essence when millions of agriculture graduates are not in any way active in promoting food security instead they are teaching Agricultural Science in one private school or the other

Eventually we are yet in the era of neocolonialism.

What shall we do about this matter?

rottennaija:
So how do you finance these projects the country needs so urgently?

Deregulation is the answer open it up to everyone let people pull funds together sourcing it locally or internationally through investment banking and equities just as the MTN, AIRTEL of the Telecommunications Sector did

Ynix:
Deregulation is the answer open it up to everyone let people pull funds together sourcing it locally or internationally through investment banking and equities just as the MTN, AIRTEL of the Telecommunications Sector did

Hmmm... Its easy to say deregulation. When deregulation comes, fuel prices increases and then everyone will shout. Anyway, it is my experience that its easy to shout about Nigeria problems when you are sitting on the fence, as if you have all the solutions. Then, when you get into position, that's when the real issues raised their heads

rottennaija:
So how do you finance these projects the country needs so urgently?

There is no microwave route to infrastructural development.

Ask China,
Ask Singapore,
Check out Ghana,

The narrative that Africa is poor and needs aid is our bane.

Ynix:
Now let me come to the Crux of the matter, railway construction financing.

Some years ago,that was 2012 I read of India completing the third longest rail project in Asia, a tunnel of several kilometers with just 40 Billion Naira as at then.

You are contradicting yourself here...is it the tunnel alone or the tunnel plus rail project that cost 40 billion naira?

Plus the Indian project in question cost 310 billion naira apporximately..not 40 billion naira.(750 million dollars )..for a underground line running 16.6kms.

rottennaija:
So how do you finance these projects the country needs so urgently?

There is no urgency. What is the hurry? We have lived for thousands of years without these.
Yoruba say if you do not train your children they will sell the house you built.
The moral is building house is less important than building people.
Our main priority right now should be . Population control and educating our people academically and technologically so that they are not engaged in baditry and kidnapping
If we must borrow for one thing let it be electricity.
Rail is a nice thing to have but it is not really a priority today. Already we hear of vandals removing railings to sell. We are not ready for these shiny concrete toys that will never repay the loans borrowed and will forever require subsidies

The question is not how you borrow but how you repay the loans will the project repay the loans. Very very unlikely
The only justification for such loans is if they are denominated in Naira.
If a man is starving the solution is to refeed him slowly. Not to eat a whole goat in one day.
Again it might even make sense if the projects are awarded to Nigeria companies using Nigerian steel etc. That means there is a knock on effect to OUR economy.
The main beneficiary here will be the Chinese economy . Their steel industry grows while ours dies. Their engineers grow while ours die.
I do not see the upside
Look at the Kaduna-Abuja Rail . Is it making money ? Will it ever repay the loan. NO!! We will still end up using oil money to repay the loan and pay for maintenance etc
The question then is how much loans can we afford. Surely this is not infinite?

omonnakoda:

There is no urgency. What is the hurry? We have lived for thousands of years without these.
Yoruba say if you do not train your children they will sell the house you built.
The moral is building house is less important than building people.
Our main priority right now should be . Population control and educating our people academically and technologically so that they are not engaged in baditry and kidnapping
If we must borrow for one thing let it be electricity.
Rail is a nice thing to have but it is not really a priority today. Already we hear of vandals removing railings to sell. We are not ready for these shiny concrete toys that will never repay the loans borrowed and will forever require subsidies

The question is not how you borrow but how you repay the loans will the project repay the loans. Very very unlikely
The only justification for such loans is if they are denominated in Naira.
If a man is starving the solution is to refeed him slowly. Not to eat a whole goat in one day.

The question then is how much loans can we afford. Surely this is not infinite?

I thought you had something serious to say. A country with more than 200m people and you think rail service is not urgent?

Rail improves lives of people and promote industries. It helps to reduce cost of transportation and thereby goods and services.

rottennaija:


I thought you had something serious to say. A country with more than 200m people and you think rail service is not urgent?

Rail improves lives of people and promote industries. It helps to reduce cost of transportation and thereby goods and services.

If you can afford it.
We have 200 million UNPRODUCTIVE people

A man with 6 wives , 40 children and no job will say feeding his children is urgent
Will I lend him money to feed them ? NO!!

I will never get the money back

That is the reality.
NOT sentiment

How will we pay back

What is the plan? There is no other plan except the HOPE that oil prices will increase

Do we see any seriousness on the part of government to reduce the cost of governance?

Last year the national Assembly was buying new cars .

The reality is government finances are in deep trouble

The main priority right now is electricity . That is something the government should focus on and avoid all these bogus and diversionary projects

BSF:

There is no microwave route to infrastructural development.

Ask China,
Ask Singapore,
Check out Ghana,

The narrative that Africa is poor and needs aid is our bane.

It's easy to refer to China on every occasion, but apply China system of operation in Nigeria, most of you will begin to shout.
Most of you are semi half baked. You are always quick to refer to Ghana. In Ghana, a litter of Petroleum is $ 1.7 which is above N500 . Are you ready to buy same liter of Petroleum above N500 here in Nigeria?
You need N167 to get a liter of fuel in Nigeria while you need above 5.76186 cedis to get the same liter of fuel in Ghana. It's because most of you have not travelled out of Nigeria, that's why at every giving opportunity, you castigate Nigeria Govt without knowing what's obtainable in your saner other countries.
Truly most of you, are half-baked with bitter hatred for the country
Even your Almighty US , they are still borrowing to put up critical infrastructures in United state

omonnakoda:
If you can afford it.
We have 200 million UNPRODUCTIVE people

A man with 6 wives , 40 children and no job will say feeding his children is urgent
Will I lend him money to feed them ? NO!!

I will never get the money back

That is the reality.
NOT sentiment

How will we pay back

What is the plan? There is no other plan except the HOPE that oil prices will increase

That's a hasty generalisation. We have a lot of people who are unproductive and we have those looking for the enabling environment so they can work.

rottennaija:


I thought you had something serious to say. A country with more than 200m people and you think rail service is not urgent?

Rail improves lives of people and promote industries. It helps to reduce cost of transportation and thereby goods and services.

Sir, I think that you are misquoting him, his emphasis is on

1_plans being made to repay the loans borrowed to build those infrastructures.
2_those infrastructures that was built using borrowed funds cannot repay those funds due to lack of maintenance.
3_he made a great point that it's better to build a man(firstly) than to build a house(secondly). But here in Nigeria we are building infrastructures without building people that will use the infrastructures by providing jobs and focusing on human development.

RisenJoe:


Sir, I think that you are misquoting him, his emphasis is on

1_plans being made to repay the loans borrowed to build those infrastructures.
2_those infrastructures that was built using borrowed funds cannot repay those funds due to lack of maintenance.
3_he made a great point that it's better to build a man(firstly) than to build a house(secondly). But here in Nigeria we are building infrastructures without building people that will use the infrastructures by providing jobs and focusing on human development.

And how do you know plans are not made to repair the loans? How do you know human capacity development is not taking place? I mean, don't you people read?

If we must invest in rail by borrowing it must be on the basis of economic viability.
That would mean most of the projects will be concentrated in the South.
Today distribution is political .Not based of viability but sentimental considerations like Federal character etc.

That is what we really need to think about.

Billions of dollars was spent constructing Abuja? Where is the pay off? It will never happen.

Imagine building rail paid for in dollars while the passengers pay in Naira that is losing almost half its values every 4 years

We need to start somewhere I agree. We have an infrastructure deficit I agree BUT you cannot do everything in one day.
These things take time and we have to start with those things that will build the economy. Unfortunately if we do that the gap between the North and South would widen manyfold

rottennaija:


That's a hasty generalisation. We have a lot of people who are unproductive and we have those looking for the enabling environment so they can work.

There is no generalisation
Productivity is measured by GDP per capita.

By that measure our people are not productive.

What is it that we produce and sell to the world to earn the dollars to repay the loans

What do we actually ADD VALUE to.


I am no enemy of progress but the truth is bitter. We must , I emphasize MUST borrow with the ability to pay back as the number one consideration. NOT what we think we need.

Some might put forward the idea that our capacity to repay will expand when these projects come online. That is fantasy

Human capital is what enhances capacity to pay back

Let us even start by making furniture(anything) that other countries want to buy.
Not commodities
We are collectively an unproductive people. Ranked 136 on GDP per capita

136

Lazycapitalist3:


You are contradicting yourself here...is it the tunnel alone or the tunnel plus rail project that cost 40 billion naira?

Plus the Indian project in question cost 310 billion naira apporximately..not 40 billion naira.(750 million dollars )..for a underground line running 16.6kms.

That was the value as at that time. That was what I read in the news paper, you brought up another news I read it in an hand held news paper and I know what I am saying,it is not an underwater project.
Do you understand.

omonnakoda:
There is no generalisation
Productivity is measured by GDP per capita.

By that measure our people are not productive.

What is it that we produce and sell to the world to earn the dollars to repay the loans

What do we actually ADD VALUE to.


I am no enemy of progress but the truth is bitter. We must , I emphasize MUST borrow with the ability to pay back as the number one consideration. NOT what we think we need.

Some might put forward the idea that our capacity to repay will expand when these projects come online. That is fantasy

Human capital is what enhances capacity to pay back

Let us even start by making furniture(anything) that other countries want to buy.
Not commodities
We are collectively an unproductive people. Ranked 136 on GDP per capita

136

it is obvious you are not true with reality. I know lots of furniture makers that make top notch products. It takes it back to what I said, the focus should be on skill development for productivity. When a government spend more money on paying debt when will they have time to finance human capital development

Ynix:
That was the value as at that time. That was what I read in the news paper, you brought up another news I read it in an hand held news paper and I know what I am saying,it is not an underwater project.
Do you understand.

Well, the newspaper got it wrong in my opinion...plus I have searched online for any recent project in India re rail....and nothing comes up matching your N40 billion naira project. Most of the recent Indian projects cost more than that.

I doubt 40 billion naira would be enough to do a large Indian rail project. Nigeria is corrupt...but not that corrupt as you paint it.

The report from 2012 puts IR cost for 129 NEW LINES at 12500 crore...which equates to nearly 1.25 trillion dollars by the way.

Ynix:
it is obvious you are not true with reality. I know lots of furniture makers that make top notch products. It takes it back to what I said, the focus should be on skill development for productivity. When a government spend more money on paying debt when will they have time to finance human capital development

Guy stop telling what "you know" as reality

What does furniture making contribute to GDP ?

How much did we earn from tax from furniture making in dollar terms that will

HELP REPAY THE LOAN

That is how to analyse issues. Facts and data .
Even the furniture in Aso Rock is it made in Nigeria?


Not anecdotes

You cannot insist what you "know" is reality.

What does Nigeria sell to the world aside from oil?
How much exactly is it worth.
How much of that accrues to government revenue to help pay the billions of dollars debt?

rottennaija:


I thought you had something serious to say. A country with more than 200m people and you think rail service is not urgent?

Rail improves lives of people and promote industries. It helps to reduce cost of transportation and thereby goods and services.

you missed the whole point.
Other Developed nations financed their rail project through Crowd investing and not debt that is the point.
If Government Deregulated airways, waterways and private buses and cars run on roads same should be for rail let the private sector run it. It will foster competition and create jobs for natives

omonnakoda:
Guy stop telling what "you know" as reality

What does furniture making contribute to GDP ?

How much did we earn from tax from furniture making in dollar terms that will

HELP REPAY THE LOAN

That is how to analyse issues. Facts and data .


Not anecdotes

You cannot insist what you "know" is reality.

What does Nigeria sell to the world aside from oil?
How much exactly is it worth.
How much of that accrues to government revenue to help pay the billions of dollars debt?

You keep going off key.
Go back and read what I wrote, already The government has placed a ban on importation of some furnitures. As at last year $697 Million was generated from Furniture so what are you saying.

I repeat again empower the people, make them productive and they will fund our projects that is exactly the same economic model most top Nigerian churches are using

Lazycapitalist3:


Well, the newspaper got it wrong in my opinion...plus I have searched online for any recent project in India re rail....and nothing comes up matching your N40 billion naira project. Most of the recent Indian projects cost more than that.

I doubt 40 billion naira would be enough to do a large Indian rail project. Nigeria is corrupt...but not that corrupt as you paint it.

The report from 2012 puts IR cost for 129 NEW LINES at 12500 crore...which equates to nearly 1.25 trillion dollars by the way.

You obviously read another information. Check out the link below, what I calculated as at then amounted to 40 Billion Naira. May be they created another later

https://www.railway-technology.com/news/newsindia-opens-longest-rail-tunnel/

Ynix:


You keep going off key.
Go back and read what I wrote, already The government has placed a ban on importation of some furnitures. As at last year $697 Million was generated from Furniture so what are you saying.

I repeat again empower the people, make them productive and they will fund our projects that is exactly the same economic model most top Nigerian churches are using

Furniture is not the issue here.
You are the one going off key.
That was just an example.
The point is how are we going to pay back the DOLLAR loan by adding value to ANYTHING. Instead of addressing that you are telling how you and furniture makers party together

Two things
1, You say $ 697 million was generated from furniture. Can you provide a source
2. Was this generated for government or the furniture makers

Remember it is government that has to repay the loan not the furniture maker

How will government pay pack the loans

It takes generations to empower people to become productive. Not when you reproduce like rabbits and send to to Almajiri schools
Empowerment is by planning not magic

China did not get where they are by borrowing

In the 1950s there was starvation in China. People were literally eating Human Flesh

They WENT TO WORK

omonnakoda:
Furniture is not the issue here.
You are the one going off key.
That was just an example.
The point is how are we going to pay back the DOLLAR loan by adding value to ANYTHING. Instead of addressing that you are telling how you and furniture makers party together

Two things
1, You say $ 697 million was generated from furniture. Can you provide a source
2. Was this generated for government or the furniture makers

Remember it is government that has to repay the loan not the furniture maker

How will government pay pack the loans

Here is one of the links

https://www.statista.com/outlook/dmo/ecommerce/furniture-appliances/furniture-homeware/nigeria

Mind you, the government is not paying any loan, it is the tax and revenue that pays it.
Don't let anyone deceive you that Government are the one paying the loan. And if they are they pay after collecting from you