By Felix Ofou

In the study of Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration (DDR), you don’t disarm a combatant and rearm him in the name of reintegration. Nigeria has gotten it all wrong. The Afghanistan episode will be replicated in Nigeria sooner or later.
I gleaned the statement above from a group chat I belong. The missive was not lost to me. It got me thinking for a long time. The import of the statement jolted me like a thunderbolt. And different scenarios kept unfolding in my head. It was difficult imagining how Nigeria could evade what the world has come to know as the Afghanistan experience.

Juxtapose what is happening in Afghanistan presently with two other contrasting pictures trending on social media and then you truly see that Nigeria is in a convoluted cul de sac already. The first is the picture of fleeing President Ashraf Ghani in a plane overlooking Kabul, capital of the embattled country. The second is the cover of the book ‘Fixing Failed States’ which, coincidentally has the same Afghan president as coauthor.

Ghani, a university Professor had gained world acclaim through his book and sold the thesis contained in it to the Americans and other world leaders as a model to deal with terrorists and terror ravaged countries. The renowned academic actually rode to power on that popular acclaim. And for a while, the world was fooled. Until the unraveling of the past few days.

Interestingly, former President Donald Trump of America actually bought into Ghani’s deodorised scheme. So convinced was Trump about it that he started negotiating with the Talibans and other rebel groups while pacifying the central government that peace was in the horizon. The former No 1 citizen of the world even went a step further by announcing a withdrawal date for American troops to get out of the troubled country.

It is however unfortunate that neither Trump, nor President Joe Biden, his successor, saw President Ghani’s proposition as a ponzi scheme until the events of the past few days which saw the Taliban ride to power with ease and no resistance from the Afghan forces. With over two trillion dollars spent, thousands of lives lost and a bitter war fought for over 20 years, the world watched as all efforts to civilise the largely Islamic country vanish into thin air.

Before now, Afghanistan had seen so called former rebels and fabled repentant terrorists pardoned absolved and reintegrated into the armed forces of the country. There was also the de-radicalisation of the ex warlords. Notwithstanding that there were still many influential mullahs or Islamic clerics in the mix, people imagined that their influence and power was whittling and largely on the fringe.

With American troops racing to meet the September 11 deadline set to coincide with the 20th anniversary of the Al-Queda bombing of United States, also known as 9/11, the Taliban made a final push to take back power from the moderate central government in Kabul. The effort did not take long to yield positive result as they soon over ran President Ghqni and his cronies, put in power by Western powers. Suddenly, there was no difference between Afghan forces and the Taliban.

That picture of the fleeing and obviously dazed Afghan President on the plane out of Kabul was the final death knell on that Western inspired government and exposed the fallacy in the book ‘Fixing Failed States’. The picture is also a sad reminder of the road that should never have been travelled. It was not only a humiliated Ghani that was in that plane, he carried with him, the burden of his backers and misdirected pseudo intellectuals alike.

Yet, the story of Nigeria is no different from that of Afghanistan. Neither is the story of American presidents and other fooled western powers any different from our current leaders. Our country, Nigeria, and the All Progressives Congress (APC) led central government elected to toe the Afghan example with the convoluted belief that Nigeria would end in a different trajectory as we are witnessing today.

The last six years of APC have been particularly befuddling. Boko Haram activities have witnessed an unprecedented upswing. ISWAP, an offshoot of the dreaded Islamic State (ISIS) has made Nigeria headquarters of its West Africa operations. Banditry, kidnapping and armed robbery are on the rise everyday. Several towns and local governments in Northern Nigeria are under the control of warlords with citizens forced to pay tax or for so called protection money, while many women and children are raped, killed and property worth millions of naira are destroyed by the marauders.

By contrast, we are daily confronted by tales of dalliance between the APC controlled federal government and men of the underworld or better still, Lords of the Forests. First, was the confession by Governor Nasir El-Rufai of Kaduna State of holding a parley with bandits and offering them huge sums of money to stave off their nefarious activities. Then followed pictures of Governor Bello Masari of Katsina State shaking hands with armed bandits signifying a truce. Thereafter, we have been inundated with scenes indicating compromise or romance with the new kings of the jungle.

But, I am perpetually dazed by our officers and men in uniform taking pictures with so called repentant terrorists. In some cases, uniforms are also sown for the born again terrorists. Thereafter, money is handed to them by the authorities and they are fold to go and sin no more. Bizarre as this scenario may seem, everyone knows that this is the caricature that the APC government led by President Nuhamnadu Buhari has foisted on our nation as a policy.

Is it any surprise that suicide bombing has not ceased? Is anyone shocked that bandits, kidnappers and robbers are now more brazen with ransom up to N500million demanded in exchange for those abducted? Is the country safer or worse under Buhari? Are we better united or on the brink? What hope for our children, including those unborn? Can anyone see a pathway on the horizon?

With the unraveling of the Afghan situation, a right thinking and forward looking administration would have quickly gone to the drawing board to chart a new path and developed a more enduring rapprochement to the ensuing crisis in the polity. That’s what President Biden and his cabinet are engrossed in doing, not only to save face, but to guarantee a more peaceful world. As for the powers that be in the Aso Rock Villa in Abuja, reality has not set in. They are still enmeshed in their delusional state. It is at best, playing the ostrich.

Sadly, and soon enough, Nigerians would discover that the Afghanistan situation is already here. But it may be too late.


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