emeka_gh:

1. Choices and options?

So if not GEJ, who should SE have supported before, during and after the primaries out of the other top contenders – IBB, Atiku, Saraki, Gusua?  GEJ is the logical choice in terms of acceptability to Nigeria, and SE. Raising a high profile SE candidate, will only be a spoiler for GEJ, as those who are aware of PDP politics will agree. SE governors and Ohaneze would have been foolish to challenge the SE people’s mood. It was a better strategy for the leaders and led to re-enforce each other at least for the first time, thanks to GEJ.

emeka_gh:

2. Why did APGA not field a Presidential candidate?

The question actually is why should it? CPC, and ACN did that, what was the result? The ACN candidate even lost in ACN strongholds to PDP
(massively). It will be tactically astute for APGA, but strategically bad for SE had APGA fielded a presidential candidate at the risk of losing. CPC, and ACN presidential candidates are still licking their wounds.

emeka_gh:

3. Why did SE not vote for Buhari, Ribadu, or  Utomi?

Even without any commitment from GEJ or PDP to SE, the individualist nature of SEners favoured GEJ. Most SEner’s did not believe in the aspirations
of Buhari, even till tomorrow. Perhaps they might have voted for IBB (perhaps, but never Buhari. He is that hated in SE especially activities while in
the millitary) Extracting commitment from GEJ would have been a bonus, but it might sounds like blackmail (considering his shaky position at that time- blackmailing a friend is not the ways of SE) Unconditional support carries more weight than blackmail. Ribadu and Utomi, both belongs to the future. Smart Utomi realized that and stepped down, but not the stubborn Ribadu. (Poor Ribadu, he was left high and dry by ACN)

emeka_gh:


4. What is in for SE after the unconditional support?

For a start, the SE has killed two birds with one stone. Fisrt, they helped enthroned minority tribe, and secondly took the very first and important step in healing the age long mistrust between cousins – SE and SS. The SE has sown an important seed, which will yield fruit if Nigeria remains. That is the beginning of the SE Renaissance!

emeka_gh:

5. Economy?

SE (indeed Nigeria) is better off with an economy run by GEJ than that run by Buhari. Voting for Buhari, even if GEJ refuse to play ball, will be bad business for SE. GEJ is approachable, same cannot be said for the ex-dictator. The GEJ regime will be good for Nigeria’s economy (and what is good for Nigeria economy is generally very good for SE and SW, the two are two interconnected in business, industry, and commerce.

emeka_gh:

6. Is SW or SE aggrieved?
Not yet (well except for a couple of die-hard anti-GEJ crusaders/jihadists on Nairaland) But denying SW one of Speaker or SGF will be unfair, just as it will be to deny the SE either.  However, the SE should have been allowed to make a choice between the two positions before PDP concluded with the Zoning arrangement, as a reward for their unconditional, timely, and massive support for GEJ/PDP. But this is what you get when you fail to arm-twist, or blackmail.
Having one of these very powerful offices in SW is good in other to curtail the powers of Tinubu/ACN in SW just as opposition is good for GEJ/PDP. Tactically speaking, it will be interesting to see how PDP tries to re-establish itself in SW. SW PDP Speaker versus Tinubu/Fashola/CAN -this battle will be a subplot for 2015 –

emeka_gh:

7. What would happen in 2015?

Fast forward to 2015:
ACN will field Fashola, but like Buhari, he will make so much noise in the SW, and North, but he will either consider the SE/SS block inconsequential (or a no go area), since the SE will also a presidential candidate. SE Presidential candidate will count on the SS votes (with promises, and sentiments), and the massive SE/SS indigene votes in SW. Votes will again be based on region and religion, as issues will still be on the back burner. ACN will reach out to the North, but will meet  a strong resistance from an aggrieved North (the North will remind ACN that they did not support Buhari, and that the abandoned Ribadu in the SW during the election . ACN will consider joining force with SE (if the SE has a very strong candidate like Rochas/or Chime), SE will insist on presidency or nothing. (Perhaps looking ahead, the pragmatic ACN will accede the request and sow a seed like SE did with GEJ; they will extract massive commitment from SE presidential candidate/party. However, they will not mobilize their supporters for the opposition during the presidential election. A lesson well thought them by their son Obj.

emeka_gh:

8. Going forward,

The SE is not in bad position politically as result of this election. Building trust with SS is the best thing they have done in recent time. However, as integrated as the SEners are in the SW, it baffles observers no end why SW and SE fail to trust each other – too much education maybe. However, it is about time this two educated and intelligent region trash out this issue of trust. The battle for 2015 is at hand. Should GEJ leave in 2015, SE may ask call in their favour from SS who will be willing to pay back. NC, will be the battle Zone once again, if SW and SE/SS refuse to join forces. But I know for certain, SE want the presidency badly  in 2015, SW will therefore be exhibiting political maturity, and astuteness if they let SE have it. It’s about time the whole south unites for a change.  

Beaf:

@Jason123

That was a vast lump of pedantic goo you typed.

jason123:

LOL
At least you did your analysis based on what you perceive, which is good. I am not against it.
Have you EVER wondered why the USA said the country will split 2015
Okay, here goes:


First of all, most Igbos supported GEJ, not because GEJ will develop the country but because GEJ's name was is "Azikwe". Hence, they felt more affiliated to him. Apart from the fact that GEJ openly cajoled the SE delegated and lawmakers to do away with zoning (which they are fighting to bring back now, such hypocrisy!), he meet Ojukwu and Ohnaeze, and promised Ndigbo "special" treatment if he wins. This the the main reason why Ndigbo was angry when they did not get the Senate presidency or Speaker. To confirm what I typed, people should notice that everytime those positioned are mentioned, SOME Ndigbo scholars will scream 5 million SE votes just for GEJ without giving it a taught that the North alone produced and delivered more votes than them.
Lol, well if you call it "tactical astute", then good for you since you want to deceive yourself.
APGA did not produce a candidate not only because of the reasons I earlier stated above but also because they had not political back-bone. APGA would have LOST RESOUNDINGLY if they had produced a candidate even in Igbo land.
As for CPC, yes they lost but at least with diginty in truth and light.
For ACN, they had a FREE AND FAIR election and if that was the results, then, so be it. Atleast, they did not produce "magic numbers".
You see, the thing is, there is nothing hidden under the sun. If CPC and ACN rigged the election, then they will be judged. If not, the people that rigged will be judged.

Okay, you did not vote for Buhari but would have voted for IBB. Why is that Lol   . You would have done that if Buhari had picked a SE vice but he did not. So should I now accuse the SE of TRIBALISM Certainly not. The thing about some of you guys is that, if the Yorubas or Hausas had done the same and voted along "na my person" line, you will be the first person to scream "TRIBALISTIC YORUBAS AND JIHADIST HAUSAS" when you OPENLY practiced the same thing you accuse them of.

So the bone of contention is: You voted for GEJ because other candidates did not pick a SE VP but picked SS and SW VPs. Now, that is tribalistic, don't you think?
Well, if you think so, then GOOD LUCK. But hold on, was it not some people that started accusing the SS of betrayal when the Senate and speaker position was not "zoned" to the SE?? . . . . . . .

Okay, so you agree that you voted for GEJ because of some benefits?

No, it will be FAIR if you deny the SW and give it to the SE because you guys "single-handedly" voted GEJ in.


Lol, this is just ridiculous.
Okay, will you be happy if some one like Fashola or Amechi do not get the opportunity to rule this country I mean, Nigeria and their backward (almost senseless) thinking. So simply because we want 2015 to be from a man from Igbo extract, we will put to hold another 8years of development Do you not think that is selfish?

So, 2015, you think the North will not vote for a muslim What happened to a muslim-muslim ticket Well, I need not say much.

Let me leave you with this, an attempt to betray or over look Fashola will spell DOOM for Nigeria.

1)Lagos will be a HOT SPOT especially if Fashola lost after all the good will he extended towards the Ndigbo community in Lagos and cabinet.

2) The STRONG relationship and LITTLE trust between Igbos and Yorubas will be OVER. Because most Yorubas like Igbos based on their eagerness towards development and all which they share with the Yorubas hence Yorubas and Igbos have NEVER FOUGHT but Yorubas and Hausa have.

3) The moment the SW sense any foul play in the polity, you can be rest assured that the poliical mood of the SW will change. That is, they will form bonds with every ethnic group in Nigeria including the Fulani (whom they have mixed up with in Kwara and Kogi) but not Ndigbo. You know what will follow up next, don't you?
PS: the reason why I said Lagos and other SW and SS will be hot is because you are trying to tell them that they do not control their political destiny.

Btw, there is a saying, In politics, there is no premanent friendship, only interest". I am waiting for 2015 to see the SS-SE combo!!!!

A very strong contradiction.
Look, what unites the south (apart from the collective dislike of the North) is the development and progressive idealogy we all share and crave for! The moment we start playing for power instead of progress and collective interests, that will be the moment every one in the South will realise that we do not share anything in common which will be sad and bitterly painful.

To end it all, I want to say that you should not take this as a tribal or ethnic bash. Instead, try to counter my point.
I might have said some unpleasant words but it is the reality.
2015, get a Fashola and Amechi ticket ( I do not care who becomes VP) and we the south can pass our ideology of progress,tolerance and aggressive development  to the rest of the country.
I will be waiting for your counter!!!

emeka_gh:

Deal or No Deal – Why we chose GEJ

So the Anti GEJ troops really believe it was a ‘dumb’ move for the SE to support the aspiration of GEJ a SSner?

So if not GEJ, who should SE have supported before, during and after the primaries out of the other top contenders? IBB, Atiku, Saraki, Gusua?  GEJ is the logical choice in terms of acceptability to Nigeria, and SE.

The question actually is why should it? CPC, and ACN did that, what was the result? The ACN candidate even lost in ACN strongholds to PDP
(massively). It would have been tactically astute for APGA, but strategically bad for SE had APGA fielded a presidential candidate, even with the risk of losing. CPC, and ACN presidential candidates are still licking their wounds, despite the 'tsunami'.

Why did SE not vote for Buhari, Ribadu, or  Utomi?
Even without any commitment from GEJ or PDP to SE, the individualist nature of SEners favoured GEJ candidacy. Most SEner’s did not believe in the aspirations of Buhari, even till tomorrow. Perhaps they might have voted for IBB (perhaps, but never Buhari.

For a start, the SE has killed two birds with one stone. First, they helped enthroned a minority tribe, and secondly took the very first and important step in healing the age long mistrust between cousins – SE and SS. The SE has sown an important seed, which will yield fruit if Nigeria remains as an entity. That is the beginning of the SE Renaissance!

SE (indeed Nigeria) is better off with an economy run by GEJ than that run by Buhari. Voting for Buhari, even if GEJ had  refuse to play ball, will be bad business for SE. GEJ is approachable, same cannot be said for the ex-dictator.

However, the SE should have been allowed to make a choice between the two positions before PDP concluded with the Zoning arrangement, as a reward for their unconditional, timely, and massive support for GEJ/PDP. But this is what you get when you fail to arm-twist, or blackmail.

ACN will field Fashola, but like Buhari, he will make so much noise in the SW, and North, but he will either consider the SE/SS block inconsequential (or a no go area), since the SE will also a presidential candidate. SE Presidential candidate will count on the SS votes (with promises, and sentiments), and the massive SE/SS indigene votes in SW. Votes will again be based on region and religion, as issues will still be on the back burner. ACN will reach out to the North, but will meet  a strong resistance from an aggrieved North (the North will remind ACN that they did not support Buhari, and that the abandoned Ribadu in the SW during the election . ACN will consider joining force with SE (if the SE has a very strong candidate like Rochas/or Chime), SE will insist on presidency or nothing. (Perhaps looking ahead, the pragmatic ACN will accede the request and sow a seed like SE did with GEJ; they will extract massive commitment from SE presidential candidate/party. However, they will not mobilize their supporters for the opposition during the presidential election. A lesson well thought them by their son Obj.

The SE is not in bad position politically as result of this election.
This is not a tribal rant or whining. Please mature contributions only.

Eziachi:

A varied opinion does not represent a anti somebody as being promoted by the so called educated people like you to confused the already confused people. Those who hate the damned Nigeria but always pretends otherwise.

Like I said above, people like you bended Nigeria the way it has found herself today. Why would SE choice be limited to GEJ if not because its a tradition of people  like you that once anyone is in power, he is the alpha and Omega, if not how is GEJ better than a candidate Amaechi, Chime or Utomi who quit becuase he knew the winner is not chosen on merit but on tribal/selfish reasons.
You chose to see anything good from your tribal or regional prism?

There is nothing astue about an independent registered party like APGA not to field a candidate in order to help another opposing party when there no alliance between the two parties. Whether they chose to vote for PDP/Jonathan, APGA should have fielded a candidate for moral/psychological reasons.  Even if fielded a non Igbo person as their choice of candidate just like ACN used/messed up Ribadu when they could have posted on of their own.
Doing that will give APGA the excuse to campaign all over the country and strengthened their local candidates in other elections and fan base.

Tell me how individual nature of my own Igbo nation favoured Jonathan? Because himself and his Ijaw people loved us so much on many occassions that requires that? How can most SE believed in aspiration of Buhari when people like you were running around like headless chickens telling blantant lies against the guy, with all the states TV/RADIO singing it like parrot to the most distant part of our land with no chance of rebuttal.
All NTA/FRCN doing the same and the guy can only speak or make a diffence through foreign medium like the BBC.  When was the last time your mother or grandmother listens to BBC world service? Where was this sudden melancholic hostility toward Buhari in 2003/2007. They may not have voted him in their millions but not as hostile as today as fuelled by people like you because you foolishly hoped that Jonathan will hand over to you in 2015, so you see a Buhari's candidacy as a clog in the wheel in 2015.

Stop kidding yourself. You have neither kill one birth, let alone two. You enthroned minority tribe, whose people love to hate you more than you can ever image and when push comes to shove they will look else where- cousins/Renaissance my backside!
I kept telling myopic people like you that the only Southern group that will honestly to trusted by Ndigbo without much fear are the Ibibios, Efik and Annang people. The rest? Just forget it.

If you have fact to backup you pronoucement, that will be nice rather than your irrational personal feelings turned into Economic Blue Prints. Many of you have either selective/short memory or non at all. Being an ex dictator because the person served under the military like David Mark, Jona Jang and others does not make one a bad economy manager. To people like you, 2011 election's expidiency Buhari is an ex dictator but our own sons like Ndubuisi Kanu or Ebitu Ukiwe aren't even when they are in the same board and Rawlings in GHANA was a saint too irrespective.

In a realised Biafra, any SE person that chose reason like you must be banished into exile,unless we will become a mini Nigeria.

During the primaries people like you are singing that zoning is dead and after the election, the same mouth/tongue long with GEJ himself start talking about the same zoning that was dead? Does some of you have any shame? Don't you get embarrased with this sort of things? Because I will be totally. How do you guys sleep at night?

Forget about long speech above, come 2015 Jonathan may change his tone and run again  because he seem a man you can't trust his words. But whether the northern elite will buy it again, since their foe Buhari will no longer be running is another debate.
But he kept to his words and decide to step aside, he will not be handing over to the SE and neither will Fashola be in the Aso Rock too, no matter how much the Western media project/sale him from day one. GEJ if not running will hand over to the North as he promised them and remember the Sambo factor too, GEJ may pitch his tent with him to cover his backside.
then if it gets too bad for everybody, then Nigeria will disappear as predicted by some.

Pleaseeeeeeeeeeee! My brother/Friend, SE position now is worse than it has ever been since 1999 and if people like you leading our people cannot see it, then this the biggest tribal rant or whine ever.
Ka Chineke Mezie Okwu

emeka_gh:

I have already stated why SE choose GEJ, I wont be going back to that. Amechi, Chime did not contest! You are rather tribal, trying to see everything from gains to SE/Igbo. I rather see Nigeria, not just Igbo!

It might not be astute for you, but for me, and other political watcher, it is. We can agree to disagree with that.
It was necessary for  Igbo to end their long problem of mistrust with Ijaws/SS, that in itself is an achievement. Everything should not be about power and politics. Reconciliation is a powerful tool.

What were the blatant lies against Buhari? He was simply not good enough. Even the SW did not vote for him. Why shld SE? And you are very silly bringing my mother and grandmother into this discourse (even if metaphorical). The Igbo nation you hold dear, have high respect for parents, dont trifle with mine. 
Btw, Jonathan cannot handover power to anybody in 2015. Level playing ground is what we all ask for.

You are not an expert, so your opinion on this can very well be discounted.
I have not seen any fact to back up any of yours; why ask me for facts?

Realised Biafra or Mini Nigeria? What exactly are you about?

During the primaries, people like me supported the GEJ power sector reform among others; why people like you pitched all your hope and aspiration with  that jihadist and perennial loser - Buhari. Sad that you have not learned anything since his massive rejection by people like me.

If he run again, so be it. The electorate will decide his fate. I have said earlier, GEJ is not in position to hand over power to anyone, the best he can do is to provide a level playing ground. 2015 will be all comers affairs.

You still call me brother and friend after all the insult you heaped on me? Have you no shame? ?

Eziachi:

What you are saying is if GEJ swapped places today with Pat Utomi, you will still have him as the chosen one? If GEJ was running under PRP he will be chosen by the SE. The culture of NIGERIA democracy is to look at who is in position at that moment, whether he is a goat i not their concern, he/she is the man. Has nothing to do with being IGBO Amaechi/Chime I used is based on what people say about to with regards to govt governance not because they Igbo.

The political watch also known as political jobber? They will tell you that the sun rises and set in the north if they have to. Because PDP pulled a masterstroke on Igbo caalling Jonathan Ebele/Azikiwe in 2011 does mean that ED clarke and the Ijaw will not throw the first stone of Igbos if they had to. Based on history, as long as South is concern only the Ibibio/Efik/Annang will a go to sleep with my both eyes shut. You don't have believe me, ask the elder in your family, village or town.

Probably he is not good enough, but that is not the reason the paint a man just because he is contesting against your choice. Our own IKEMBA was a victim of such labelling. Ndigbo for 40 years has suffered over such labelling. That is why I was mad with PDP riggers in the SS/SE because GEJ don't need to rig to beat Buhari in both zones. If Nigeria judiciary can stnd up for the truth, their action may cost GEJ going to another election, he should have in the first place.
You don't realise that you mother I mention was a metaphor what can I say.

If I claim to be an expert, I won't be discussing with you, would I? However, I don't discount your opinion either, I punture and disect them wherever I needed to do so.

As for me of all people not backing my thought with fact means that you not been reading my contribution or you chose not to acknowlege them.

A free/new independent Biafra that will end up being like the OLD Nigeria will in effect be called a mini Nigeria.

I don't, had never or will ever pitch any tent, let alone hope on any Nigerian politician. Even if that is the case, you made it look like thre are to candiates in the damn election.

If you now claimed that you chose GEJ over Atiku because of his magic wand on power sector, where are we now then with that?

But I don't have selective memory like some- I remberedthat the hardcore northerners said it was still their turn and Jonathan and his supporters from both north/south force fed everybody that zoning is now dead and income merit. He has more money to bribe delegates than Atiku and promised PDP governors an automatic ticket to buy their support. This events only happened just few months ago and you are already re-writing it?
There is every chance he will run again, because the language style of his supporter is already mirrowing that of Abacha/OBJ in that regard with president for life/3rd term agenda.

If he is not in the position to give power, he shouldn't be promising it and what does that make him if he promised what he cannot give? But remember that whoever that is in power in Nigeria,always gets his way, until the person officially lose the power. Apart from 1993, Nigeria don't do level playing field, like given everybody equal access to the likes of NTA/FRCN when it comes to politic or electioneering.

I dont think I heaped any insult on you and if it looks like that to you, then I am giving you my unreserved apologY and to say that I am sorry.
If I needed to insult anybody, it has to be guys or people like you whom I percieved to be of the Igbo stock like me, as that will show you that my opinion is not borne out of tribal/ethnic malice. I feel comfortable talking freely to my fellow Igbo in uncertain terms because if I do the same to others, it will easily be mis-interpreted.

My brother, I had shame, a lot of it, hence all the things I am telling you is based on how shameful a feel with attitude of those claiming to lead my people. Our ancestors told us that "It is the brother of the mad man running neck in the market square that feels ashamed, not the the necked man himself".

Beaf:

8.   Going forward .  .  .

The SE is not in bad position politically as result of this election. Building trust with SS is the best thing they have done in recent time. However, as integrated as the SEners are in the SW, it baffles observers no end why SW and SE fail to trust each other – too much education maybe. However, it is about time this two educated and intelligent region trash out this issue of trust. The battle for 2015 is at hand. Should GEJ leave in 2015, SE may ask call in their favour from SS who will be willing to pay back. NC, will be the battle Zone once again, if SW and SE/SS refuse to join forces. But I know for certain, SE want the presidency badly  in 2015, SW will therefore be exhibiting political maturity, and astuteness if they let SE have it. It’s about time the whole south unites for a change.

sbeezy8:

lol nonsense

lol so what if SE are integrated ? so are edo urhobos igalas nupe, efiks, etc other tribes so what is your point?

2) we dont need to trust eachother SE will play junior partner in 2015.

3) cant really say to much about "SS" cause i kno TOO  many urhobos itsekiris edo who do not believe in zoning AT ALL N when GEJ leaves they dont know who they will vote for in FOUR YRS!

--- also keep in mind the current political landscape with the SE+ NW  teaming up- why would any sensible person team up with the SE in the future?

4) YOU WERE TALKIN TRIBALISTIC JARGONS BEFORE SO WHY THE CHANGE NOW?

5) I  can tell you now SE is not even the mind of being president in 2015.

VP is your choice take it or leave it.

either GEJ whos already there or FASHOLA (who i feel shouldnt run for president) or some other NORTHERNER.