Here is my analysis for the 2023 presidential election.

With the primary election of major parties already concluded, we can see that we just have 3 or 4 major contenders in this coming election namely: Atiku, Tinubu, Kwankwaso and Obi.

Atiku & Kwankwaso are northerners, so northern votes will be split between Atiku and Kwankwaso, no block votes would go to either of them.

Tinubu and Obi are southerners, though Asiwaju has money to throw around, that doesn't negate the fact that he is an old, sick man who is not marketable by any indices, so he's a bad market for the party and region (for those who still want to vote along regional lines).

Note that the three aforementioned candidates are Muslims, so those that want to vote along religious line, Muslim votes will be divided among the three of them.

Peter Obi on the other hand is obviously the most competent and qualified candidate, ethnicity aside. No sane Southerner will leave a healthy, educated, prudent, well-tested, well-exposed Peter Obi to vote for Asiwaju. Though Tinubu's ill-gotten wealth can buy him some votes but a vast majority of Nigerians are wiser now. If you play religious card, Obi is the only Christian candidate among the 4 top contenders, so fellow Christians will vote for him.

Let's analyze the Southern region further.
South-East is 97% to 100% for Peter Obi.
South-South is 60% to 80% for Peter Obi.
South-West, the Yorubas are learned and exposed, so they will not all blindly vote for Asiwaju because of money and tribal sentiments. Also remember that Igbos rank second in Southwest aside from Yorubas in terms of population, so Peter Obi can get 50% to 55% from there, if not more.

When it comes to campaigns, presentation of manifestos, Peter Obi will shine brighter than all the other aspirants.

What about the Middle Belt? They have suffered enough casualties in the hands of the Fulani-led government and therefore will likely vote for Obi who is neither from the north or from the party that has brought them so much misery.

So when the ethnic and religious votes are counted out, the remaining votes will go to Peter Obi, and that will give him the edge to win the 2023 election.

So based on this analysis, His Excellency, Mr. Peter Obi should start writing his inauguration speech.

ugotex85:
Here is my analysis for the 2023 presidential election.

With the primary election of major parties already concluded, we can see that we just have 3 or 4 major contenders in this coming election namely: Atiku, Tinubu, Kwankwaso and Obi.

Atiku & Kwankwaso are northerners, so northern votes will be split between Atiku and Kwankwaso, no block votes would go to either of them.

Tinubu and Obi are southerners, though Asiwaju has money to throw around, that doesn't negate the fact that he is an old, sick man who is not marketable by any indices, so he's a bad market for the party and region (for those who still want to vote along regional lines).

Note that the three aforementioned candidates are Muslims, so those that want to vote along religious line, Muslim votes will be divided among the three of them.

Peter Obi on the other hand is obviously the most competent and qualified candidate, ethnicity aside. No sane Southerner will leave a healthy, educated, prudent, well-tested, well-exposed Peter Obi to vote for Asiwaju. Though Tinubu's ill-gotten wealth can buy him some votes but a vast majority of Nigerians are wiser now. If you play religious card, Obi is the only Christian candidate among the 4 top contenders, so fellow Christians will vote for him.

Let's analyze the Southern region further.
South-East is 97% to 100% for Peter Obi.
South-South is 60% to 80% for Peter Obi.
South-West, the Yorubas are learned and exposed, so they will not all blindly vote for Asiwaju because of money and tribal sentiments. Also remember that Igbos rank second in Southwest aside from Yorubas in terms of population, so Peter Obi can get 50% to 55% from there, if not more.

When it comes to campaigns, presentation of manifestos, Peter Obi will shine brighter than all the other aspirants.

What about the Middle Belt? They have suffered enough casualties in the hands of the Fulani-led government and therefore will likely vote for Obi who is neither from the north or from the party that has brought them so much misery.

So when the ethnic and religious votes are counted out, the remaining votes will go to Peter Obi, and that will give him the edge to win the 2023 election.

So based on this analysis, His Excellency, Mr. Peter Obi should start writing his inauguration speech.

peter obi will come 4th just like osinbajo come 3rd too

If u watch how tinubu could single-handedly deal with the northern cabals,presidency n d big wigs at d primary u will know he has more in his arsenal

He proved it’s beyond online noise it’s all about strategies on ground,d 2 major contenders I see here are atiku n tinubu

With what akpabio did yesterday he will deliver some part of south south n wike will also deliver south south for atiku so it’s

Atiku 40%
Tinubu 40%
Others 20%

For south east
Unknown gunmen will reduce their voting but there will still b a little turn out in which atiku n obi will share it 50-50 reason being that it’s not by noise,atiku will make dollars rain

Forget d online noise by peter obi fans,presidential election is more than that

As per south west,them mc oluomo will reduce any party to 0% n I believe u know that cos right now even seyi makinde leg is shaking cos his deputy will work against him n apc can fight him now

As per north central,it’s going for 50-50 for atiku n tinubu

Atiku will have a huge vote in north east n n I believe u know tinubu will give him a run for his money in north west cos u know who ganduje,buhari,el rufai are n what they can do with d 3ks

Don’t believe d whole north will go fully for atiku cos they know it means 16 years straight rule for north n 16 years out of power so they don’t want that

That’s d main reason y they supported southern president now so they will all b fixed into ministers now for 8 years of southern president rule n they will have their presidency back after 8 years

This is d political reality bro

Forget peter obi in your permutations outside south east,atiku n tinubu are too deep rooted for that

Reality3080:
peter obi will come 4th just like osinbajo come 3rd too

If u watch how tinubu could single-handedly deal with the northern cabals,presidency n d big wigs at d primary u will know he has more in his arsenal

He proved it’s beyond online noise it’s all about strategies on ground,d 2 major contenders I see here are atiku n tinubu

With what akpabio did yesterday he will deliver some part of south south n wike will also deliver south south for atiku so it’s

Atiku 40%
Tinubu 40%
Others 20%

For south east
Unknown gunmen will reduce their voting but there will still b a little turn out in which atiku n obi will share it 50-50 reason being that it’s not by noise,atiku will make dollars rain

Forget d online noise by peter obi fans,presidential election is more than that

As per south west,them mc oluomo will reduce any party to 0% n I believe u know that cos right now even seyi makinde leg is shaking cos his deputy will work against him n apc can fight him now

As per north central,it’s going for 50-50 for atiku n tinubu

Atiku will have a huge vote in north east n n I believe u know tinubu will give him a run for his money in north west cos u know who ganduje,buhari,el rufai are n what they can do with d 3ks

Don’t believe d whole north will go fully for atiku cos they know it means 16 years straight rule for north n 16 years out of power so they don’t want that

That’s d main reason y they supported southern president now so they will all b fixed into ministers now for 8 years of southern president rule n they will have their presidency back after 8 years

This is d political reality bro

Forget peter obi in your permutations outside south east,atiku n tinubu are too deep rooted for that

You seem to believe so much in these old men and the old order of politicking in Nigeria. Well, in case you have not observed, Tinubu did not win the primary because he was the most qualified in the contest, he won by blackmailing Buhari and other he claimed to put in power, he won by sharing dollars. If observed Buhari's body language, he wasn't happy with Tinubu's emergence, even his wife. Tinubu's chest-beating will be one of his greatest undoing. I can tell you for free that who the majority of the northerners will vote in this election is Atiku, then Kwankwaso. They won't mind letting APC sink because of Tinubu.

Talking about sharing of money, it may work well in party primary, but general election is a different ball game, more so in this crucial time that Nigerians have suffered so much in the hands of Buhari-led government.
Trust me, 2023 election will not be anything like the previous ones, there is going to be a paradigm shift.