It's a fact that can't be disputed!! PDP is dead in Borno and Yobe state, no opposition whatsoever like Zamfara state!! It will be a surprise if PDP gets 200 votes

goshikid:
you sure say you sabi politics at all? Abi u be social media clown?

PDP is dead in Yobe

trutharena:

Source: https://independent.ng/former-pdp-chairman-1051-officials-defect-to-apc-in-yobe/

If Atiku doesn't win the north east with atleast 2.5million votes he's toast. Picking a kanuri man from Bornu was a strategic move. Yobe and Bornu will deliver 85perc votes to their own. I see Apc winning atleast 3 states in Atiku's zone. Atiku can't win any state in the south west.

Borno and Yobe are two states I'm sure PDP won't get 100 votes

frank14011991:
there was never PDP in yobe

goshikid:
you sure say you sabi politics at all? Abi u be social media clown?

You guys truly enjoy being foolish. Yobe is one state pdp has never ruled since this dispensation from buka ibrahim to geidam to buni. Una just too daft.

RealLordZeus:

Which kind lie be this.. Ekiti Gubernatorial election nko? 2019 General elections nko? Let's even forget Buhari own since we are still looking for that INEC server!

You forgot Ondo guber election and some by-elections held earlier this year. Apc won house of assembly in Imo,house of representatives in Cross River, house of representatives in Ondo.

daygee12:
Why are people not defecting to LP since they say people are their Structure. Obidients are first class idiots

they know who they are " Noises makers" pls avoid them oooo many Obidient supporters are Frustrated Hulligant and Remnants supposed prisonal of IPOB Terrorists.

trutharena:

Source: https://independent.ng/former-pdp-chairman-1051-officials-defect-to-apc-in-yobe/

Bros na audio defection, there is no PDP in yobe

RealLordZeus:

Which kind lie be this.. Ekiti Gubernatorial election nko? 2019 General elections nko? Let's even forget Buhari own since we are still looking for that INEC server!

Both are from the tribunal.

trutharena:

Source: https://independent.ng/former-pdp-chairman-1051-officials-defect-to-apc-in-yobe/

PDP decamped to APC. APC decamped to PDP is what we've been seeing for some months. And some zombies keep disturbing us here on Nairaland with online vote

nony43:






Both are from the tribunal.

Pdp came third in ekiti boy

Cc agboriotejoye.pdp is dead in yobe

garfield1:
Cc agboriotejoye.pdp is dead in yobe

There's no PDP there in the first place so how can you say a non-existent is dead?
Borno& Yobe is for Tinubu
This states will rake in 1.4 or 1.3million votes for APC.
PDP has to match Borno with Bauchi,Yobe with adamawa and taraba will cancel out Gombe.
If not I see APC win NE with almost a million margin.
NW, cancel out Zamfara, the rest are up for grab.
I remain more optimistic that PDP will do well here,much more than in NE.
NC, I still don't understand why people say Atiku will win in Niger. Two public poll opines such.
Kwara& Niger is out of bound, the rest is winnable

Aiel123:

There's no PDP there in the first place so how can you say a non-existent is dead?
Borno& Yobe is for Tinubu
This states will rake in 1.4 or 1.3million votes for APC.
PDP has to match Borno with Bauchi,Yobe with adamawa and taraba will cancel out Gombe.
If not I see APC win NE with almost a million margin.
NW, cancel out Zamfara, the rest are up for grab.
I remain more optimistic that PDP will do well here,much more than in NE.
NC, I still don't understand why people say Atiku will win in Niger. Two public poll opines such.
Kwara& Niger is out of bound, the rest is winnable

You are very objective and realistic...but bauchi have never been a pdp stronghold na.how do you expect atiku to win big here..he can only try to get big votes in taraba and Adamawa.see,a party usually gets bloc votes from where either the party is totally dominant or almost all the voters are supporting that candidate.the only place pdp had was ss/se..

Kwara is out of bounds but atiku might try in niger..which opinion poll in niger are you referring to

garfield1:


You are very objective and realistic...but bauchi have never been a pdp stronghold na.how do you expect atiku to win big here..he can only try to get big votes in taraba and Adamawa.see,a party usually gets bloc votes from where either the party is totally dominant or almost all the voters are supporting that candidate.the only place pdp had was ss/se..

Kwara is out of bounds but atiku might try in niger..which opinion poll in niger are you referring to

I have forgotten the opinion poll
Maybe it anap or one google trend search.
Bauchi...I used "has" which is a probability
I was just pointing out how PDP can match APC in NE.
APC can win only Borno and Yobe and still coast home to victory in the NE if it's gives PDP a close marking in the remaining four states. This scenario is looking very much likely.
It's only Bauchi that can match Borno voting strength...if PDP must win,it should start to sell Atiku vigorously to all localities in Bauchi...but Kwankwaso is still a blockage. APC is very grounded here. A massive victory is not feasible at the moment

Aiel123:

I have forgotten the opinion poll
Maybe it anap or one google trend search.
Bauchi...I used "has" which is a probability
I was just pointing out how PDP can match APC in NE.
APC can win only Borno and Yobe and still coast home to victory in the NE if it's gives PDP a close marking in the remaining four states. This scenario is looking very much likely.
It's only Bauchi that can match Borno voting strength...if PDP must win,it should start to sell Atiku vigorously to all localities in Bauchi...but Kwankwaso is still a blockage. APC is very grounded here. A massive victory is not feasible at the moment

Anap polls didnt look at individual states.I haven't seen enough effort from pdp to win bauchi.plus Nnpp looks strong here.bauchi voters are very fanatical so it will be hard for atiku.the presence of kwankwaso will kill any chances of bloc votes.bauchi is a state that votes massively against pdp at presidential level so I dont see how they will turn around massively.its just like delta and rivers giving obi bloc votes.even in taraba and Adamawa,some Christians will go obidient

Aiel123:

There's no PDP there in the first place so how can you say a non-existent is dead?
Borno& Yobe is for Tinubu
This states will rake in 1.4 or 1.3million votes for APC.
PDP has to match Borno with Bauchi,Yobe with adamawa and taraba will cancel out Gombe.
If not I see APC win NE with almost a million margin.
NW, cancel out Zamfara, the rest are up for grab.
I remain more optimistic that PDP will do well here,much more than in NE.
NC, I still don't understand why people say Atiku will win in Niger. Two public poll opines such.
Kwara& Niger is out of bound, the rest is winnable

This your analysis get K leg. Taraba, Adamawa, Gombe, Bauchi are for Atiku. Bauchi has the highest voters in NE followed by Borno. Next is Adamawa while Taraba, Gombe and Yobe follow in that order.
So rearrange your matching as PDP states have the upper hand in terms of numbers.
How do you expect PDP do to better in NW than NE which is Atiku's base? Na wa o
Niger is a traditional PDP state which got swept away with Sai Chanji tsunami
PDP are working to take over the state back and with a failure of a governor Sani Bello and hersmen wahala, the state is drifting towards PDP

Agboriotejoye:

This your analysis get K leg. Taraba, Adamawa, Gombe, Bauchi are for Atiku. Bauchi has the highest voters in NE followed by Borno. Next is Adamawa while Taraba, Gombe and Yobe follow in that order.
So rearrange your matching as PDP states have the upper hand in terms of numbers.
How do you expect PDP do to better in NW than NE which is Atiku's base? Na wa o
Niger is a traditional PDP state which got swept away with Sai Chanji tsunami
PDP are working to take over the state back and with a failure of a governor Sani Bello and hersmen wahala, the state is drifting towards PDP

Voting strength is not the same thing as registered voters.
Borno and Yobe votes in one direction; check all Nigeria presidential election.
Adamawa hit 500k plus voters for GEJ in 2011, moreover Buhari was close with 300k plus
The difference is just 200k which is the margin produce in Borno times 6.
Tell me bro honestly,where in NE will Atiku got a 800k margin between him and Tinubu.
Actually in 2019,NW gave Atiku more votes than NE so I right on NW giving Atiku more votes than NE.
Niger... I share contrary view.
All elective office in Niger is held by APC oo

garfield1:


Anap polls didnt look at individual states.I haven't seen enough effort from pdp to win bauchi.plus Nnpp looks strong here.bauchi voters are very fanatical so it will be hard for atiku.the presence of kwankwaso will kill any chances of bloc votes.bauchi is a state that votes massively against pdp at presidential level so I dont see how they will turn around massively.its just like delta and rivers giving obi bloc votes.even in taraba and Adamawa,some Christians will go obidient

By February all this analysis will end.
And everyone will see for himself.
I ain't debating that PO won't get votes in adamawa,taraba. He will surely get at least 10-25% of these state.
Bauchi now have a PDP Gov electedby the people,it may swing to PDP at presidential level

Aiel123:

Voting strength is not the same thing as registered voters.
Borno and Yobe votes in one direction; check all Nigeria presidential election.
Adamawa hit 500k plus voters for GEJ in 2011, moreover Buhari was close with 300k plus
The difference is just 200k which is the margin produce in Borno times 6.
Tell me bro honestly,where in NE will Atiku got a 800k margin between him and Tinubu.
Actually in 2019,NW gave Atiku more votes than NE so I right on NW giving Atiku more votes than NE.
Niger... I share contrary view.
All elective office in Niger is held by APC oo

What's the difference? Enlighten me
I don't dispute that. But even at that, Atiku will fare better in both places because he's a northerner while Tinubu and Obi are southerners
Don't expect Tinubu to pull same votes Buhari used to pull. Anyone telling you that is simply deceiving you. The North will not leave one of thiers to vote massively for a southerner
He can get it in Adamawa and Bauchi.
NW has more voters than NE. So you can expect more numbers from there. But in terms of percentages, Atiku did better in NE than NW
Niger switched to APC in 2015 during the Buhari tsunami. From 1999 to 2015, it was a strong PDP state

The Jagabanists are getting larger daily,

Tinubu is the slayer of his haters..

ABAT 2023 is a done deal to presidency of FRN by the will of God.

Agboriotejoye:

What's the difference? Enlighten me
I don't dispute that. But even at that, Atiku will fare better in both places because he's a northerner while Tinubu and Obi are southerners
Don't expect Tinubu to pull same votes Buhari used to pull. Anyone telling you that is simply deceiving you. The North will not leave one of thiers to vote massively for a southerner
He can get it in Adamawa and Bauchi.
NW has more voters than NE. So you can expect more numbers from there. But in terms of percentages, Atiku did better in NE than NW
Niger switched to APC in 2015 during the Buhari tsunami. From 1999 to 2015, it was a strong PDP state

Ok
Voting strength (votes in bloc) is either massive voters turnout or votes in one direction.
E.g Osogbo has more voters than Ede but Ede votes is in only one direction.
Same as Borno.
So when you compare you find that ede is more beneficial to whoever gets it bloc votes than who wins in Osogbo.
Take adamawa guber as an example in 2019 total voters stood at 871K and the difference between the two leading candidates was just 35k plus.
Now, Ebonyi was about 350k( total votes cast guber election). The difference between the two candidates was up to 130k.
So assuming it's presidential election,tell me which of these state is more beneficial to the contestants?
Hope you know north voted for Jonathan in 2011(Adamawa,Kogi, Gombe, Kaduna,Kwara, Benue, Plateau was won by GEJ)
You had say Jonathan was sitting president and I will tell you Tinubu belongs to the ruling party with a robust structure in the core north.
Adamawa & Bauchi? Give HE Atiku 800k margin?
Did you add the margin of both state or is it individually?
Pls elucidate why you believe what you wrote is possible
Remember Bauchi has never voted for PDP at presidential level oo
Niger... What makes you believe PDP will win?

Aiel123:

Ok
Voting strength (votes in bloc) is either massive voters turnout or votes in one direction.
E.g Osogbo has more voters than Ede but Ede votes is in only one direction.
Same as Borno.
So when you compare you find that ede is more beneficial to whoever gets it bloc votes than who wins in Osogbo.
Take adamawa guber as an example in 2019 total voters stood at 871K and the difference between the two leading candidates was just 35k plus.
Now, Ebonyi was about 350k( total votes cast guber election). The difference between the two candidates was up to 130k.
So assuming it's presidential election,tell me which of these state is more beneficial to the contestants?
Hope you know north voted for Jonathan in 2011(Adamawa,Kogi, Gombe, Kaduna,Kwara, Benue, Plateau was won by GEJ)
You had say Jonathan was sitting president and I will tell you Tinubu belongs to the ruling party with a robust structure in the core north.
Adamawa & Bauchi? Give HE Atiku 800k margin?
Did you add the margin of both state or is it individually?
Pls elucidate why you believe what you wrote is possible
Remember Bauchi has never voted for PDP at presidential level oo
Niger... What makes you believe PDP will win?

Well, if that's what you mean, Adamawa has always recorded massive turnout more than Borno.
Adamawa alone will give Atiku up to a million votes. I expect you to know that already. This is not Buhari on the ballot whom he will share votes with. If Tinubu gets 100k votes in Adamawa then he is darn lucky. If you expect a southerner to drag with Atiku in his home state, then maybe you don't understand how political dynamics works.
Bauchi is one of those pro-North states. It will deliver massive votes for Atiku too more so it has the largest voting strength in NE. This things are very simple to understand.
Niger was PDP from 1999 to 2015. Even the governor was a commissioner under PDP before 2015. Now that Buhari is no more on the ballot, a lot of Niger bigwigs that are in PDP are coming out strongly. The likes of Muazu Babangida, Kantigi, Nasko, Jerry Gana, Zainab Kure. They are mobilizing massively to bring the people back to their side and with the massive failure of APC both federal and state, they have the political armoury. Don't forget despite the massive votes they gave Buhari and Bello, they suffered herdsmen wahala seriously which was not the case even under Jonathan. They got almost nothing in return for their support. They had to strike and close the road before Abuja-Minna road was fixed. Baro port that they requested for is under lock and key. Niger is really angry with APC.

Aiel123:

By February all this analysis will end.
And everyone will see for himself.
I ain't debating that PO won't get votes in adamawa,taraba. He will surely get at least 10-25% of these state.
Bauchi now have a PDP Gov electedby the people,it may swing to PDP at presidential level

In 2003-2015 when buhari cleared bauchi,they had pdp governors who were far stronger than bala

garfield1:


In 2003-2015 when buhari cleared bauchi,they had pdp governors who were far stronger than bala

One, Tinubu isn't Buhari and two,I thought Yuguda defected to PDP? Or was he elected on PDP platform?
Bala has made PDP stronger than any of those that ruled Bauchi before.
Poached APC bigwigs,Sen. Haliru Jika senator has defected to NNPP and is now their guber candidate.
If at all,APC is decimated in Bauchi as it has become a harvest ground for rival parties

Agboriotejoye:

Well, if that's what you mean, Adamawa has always recorded massive turnout more than Borno.
Adamawa alone will give Atiku up to a million votes. I expect you to know that already. This is not Buhari on the ballot whom he will share votes with. If Tinubu gets 100k votes in Adamawa then he is darn lucky. If you expect a southerner to drag with Atiku in his home state, then maybe you don't understand how political dynamics works.
Bauchi is one of those pro-North states. It will deliver massive votes for Atiku too more so it has the largest voting strength in NE. This things are very simple to understand.
Niger was PDP from 1999 to 2015. Even the governor was a commissioner under PDP before 2015. Now that Buhari is no more on the ballot, a lot of Niger bigwigs that are in PDP are coming out strongly. The likes of Muazu Babangida, Kantigi, Nasko, Jerry Gana, Zainab Kure. They are mobilizing massively to bring the people back to their side and with the massive failure of APC both federal and state, they have the political armoury. Don't forget despite the massive votes they gave Buhari and Bello, they suffered herdsmen wahala seriously which was not the case even under Jonathan. They got almost nothing in return for their support. They had to strike and close the road before Abuja-Minna road was fixed. Baro port that they requested for is under lock and key. Niger is really angry with APC.

Unless you are saying APC members are going to sabotage the party and Tinubu

Aiel123:

Unless you are saying APC members are going to sabotage the party and Tinubu

What exectly do you mean by APC members? How many are they? You seem to forget that APC is barely 8 years old. Northerners ported massively to vote for APC in 2015 because of Buhari not necessarily because they are APC members. Niger is a good example and Benue too.
So die all this talk of APC members. Politics in Nigeria especially this present age is not so hinged on party membership as much as regional or religious sentiments.
Yorubas voted AD massively in 1999 but voted PDP in 2003. Same North that voted APP in 2003 voted PDP in 2007. It's all regional interest not party identity.
APC members is an elastic term just as PDP members was in 2015. In SS/SE now, less than 3 months and it's suddenly LP everywhere. Who are the LP members? Did they fall from Mars?

Aiel123:

One, Tinubu isn't Buhari and two,I thought Yuguda defected to PDP? Or was he elected on PDP platform?
Bala has made PDP stronger than any of those that ruled Bauchi before.
Poached APC bigwigs,Sen. Haliru Jika senator has defected to NNPP and is now their guber candidate.
If at all,APC is decimated in Bauchi as it has become a harvest ground for rival parties

I yuguda defected to pdp in 2008 and won re election.even though tinubu isn't buhari,he is a better politician with a stronger structure and resources...because Buhari isn't on the ballot,you dont expect atiku to now sweep bauchi.why didnt buhari sweep Ss/se like gej? He won but with lower margins.therefore tinubu will win but with lower margins
Since bala became governor,pdp won only one rerun election and APC were excluded.
In 2019,two apc senators defected to pdp.did it change anything?

garfield1:


I yuguda defected to pdp in 2008 and won re election.even though tinubu isn't buhari,he is a better politician with a stronger structure and resources...because Buhari isn't on the ballot,you dont expect atiku to now sweep bauchi.why didnt buhari sweep Ss/se like gej? He won but with lower margins.therefore tinubu will win but with lower margins
Since bala became governor,pdp won only one rerun election and APC were excluded.
In 2019,two apc senators defected to pdp.did it change anything?

You're sure about Yuguda?
Who was PDP guber candidate for Bauchi in 2015?
Tinubu has a stronger structure than Buhari?
Bauchi of 2020/2021 isn't the same now
All election PDP lost under Bala,they close marked APCand it was in Yakubu Dogara constituency do you don't expect PDP to win
Now Dogara isn't for Tinubu connect the dots.
In 2019, Buhari ran for president and nass election ran concurrently with the presidential election so the Buhari effect covered for APC candidates.
Now Buhari is out of the equation
Adamu Adamu is a supremacy battle with Sadique and he isn't happy that his preferred aspirant lost.

Agboriotejoye:

What exectly do you mean by APC members? How many are they? You seem to forget that APC is barely 8 years old. Northerners ported massively to vote for APC in 2015 because of Buhari not necessarily because they are APC members. Niger is a good example and Benue too.
So die all this talk of APC members. Politics in Nigeria especially this present age is not so hinged on party membership as much as regional or religious sentiments.
Yorubas voted AD massively in 1999 but voted PDP in 2003. Same North that voted APP in 2003 voted PDP in 2007. It's all regional interest not party identity.
APC members is an elastic term just as PDP members was in 2015. In SS/SE now, less than 3 months and it's suddenly LP everywhere. Who are the LP members? Did they fall from Mars?

I'm short of words.
You raised superior argument.
What is important is that is Atiku the pulse of the north?
Can he whip ethnic and tribal sentiment when there's strong opposition in Kwankwaso and Shettima all being northerners?
And the fact that an Atiku presidency will be injurious to the unity of the country given the outcry for southern presidency don't you think the north may concede to that power rotation?