simongonner:
haha lolz... Am a northerner... shey you are not yet seeing the massive defection from APC to PDP in the north?.. your eyes go clear 2023

Only a blind bat Northerner will vote for Atiku, we do not want another Yaradua Jonathan 2.

Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Muslim Muslim arrangement, is the sure ticket for the North.

FatherOfJesus:
If he can address the Wike camp, it will take God to stop him.

The truth is that, Tinubu cannot beat Atiku in northwest and northeast and Peter Obi will not do well there. Atiku is going to comfortably win these regions. Forget about the APC structure, A Yoruba man cannot beat a core northerner here, it’s not possible. These parts of the country has herd mentality, last figures proves that. It’s a winner takes all region and no splitting, especially in the northwest

Tinubu will not win much outside of southwest, kogi and Kwara. Tinubu will not win a single local government in southeast or south south. The southsouth has strong PDP structure and Its between Atiku and Peter obi.

In the Middle belt, Tinubu will perform well in kwara and kogi, Atiku will do well in Benue, nassarawa and Niger. Obi will do well in Abuja

In southeast, Obi will win while Atiku will be second. Tinubu May not win a polling unit here.

All the predictive analysis points to Atiku emerging victorious without any sentiments here.

infact you understand polity I give it to u

CheapHomes1:


these people you mentioned, are they the ones going to do all the voting? how many votes do they have?

i don’t know o.but at some point in life a man has more than his vote.u can’t tell me ppl don’t listen to u.or ppl don’t believe in u.if that’s how u are living try and adjust.In my ward I can boast of over 500ppl that I can give instructions.

Workch:
i am obidient, I am just being realistic

wow I love you very constructive and intelligent

alimiadedayo1:

infact you understand polity I give it to u

Atiku does not stand a chance, Peter Obi has destroyed any hopes he may have had, wike is only adding more pepper on him.

Bola Tinubu & APC will win the general election rather easily.

TINUBU's Muslim-Muslim ticket will favour him in the north. Same goes for Peter Obi since Yusuf is there.

That leaves Atiku with no chance. The fight is between TINUBU and Peter Obi

Buckeyemedia1:
Only a blind bat Northerner will vote for Atiku, we do not want another Yaradua Jonathan 2.

Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Muslim Muslim arrangement, is the sure ticket for the North.

haha all the best bro

Remember that the essence of Shettima is to get reasonable votes from the Northern region.

FatherOfJesus:
If he can address the Wike camp, it will take God to stop him.

The truth is that, Tinubu cannot beat Atiku in northwest and northeast and Peter Obi will not do well there. Atiku is going to comfortably win these regions. Forget about the APC structure, A Yoruba man cannot beat a core northerner here, it’s not possible. These parts of the country has herd mentality, last figures proves that. It’s a winner takes all region and no splitting, especially in the northwest

Tinubu will not win much outside of southwest, kogi and Kwara. Tinubu will not win a single local government in southeast or south south. The southsouth has strong PDP structure and Its between Atiku and Peter obi.

In the Middle belt, Tinubu will perform well in kwara and kogi, Atiku will do well in Benue, nassarawa and Niger. Obi will do well in Abuja

In southeast, Obi will win while Atiku will be second. Tinubu May not win a polling unit here.

All the predictive analysis points to Atiku emerging victorious without any sentiments here.

Op, you are NOT talking nonsense, unlike pundits and haters would claim.
This is reality, I have said it to many people who care to understand.

Peter Obi will only win in urban cities, even in some states, not all, and that won't make him win, overall.
Now in the South South, South East and South West rural communities, it will be totally vote buying between Atiku and Tinubu.

Whereas in the North East and North West, Atiku will not even need much of vote buying to win. Northern agenda on my mind.

Atiku leads.
If they like, let them hear.

PDP will win every state in the SS.
Obi will be lucky if he can win any state aside Anambra in the East.

ButterBerry:
Mention which state in SS PDP can win?

SPAMBOX7:
TINUBU's Muslim-Muslim ticket will favour him in the north. Same goes for Peter Obi since Yusuf is there.

That leaves Atiku with no chance. The fight is between TINUBU and Peter Obi

Thanks to Peter Obi leaving pdp and helping in weakening Abubakar Atiku and pdp, Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the next President of The Federal Republic of Nigeria.

David160:
If obi can't get it let Atiku have it.

Lai Lai It is better for Tinubu to have it I prefer my fellow Southerner abeg it is either Obi or Tinubu period

Aliou007:
Times have changed, election is about numbers now, no more magu-magu...and No, the real Northerners can't vote a southern president after all the killings and ill treatments they've been getting from them. Unlike before when there was peaceful coexistence between every tribe

yes you are correct, after Moslems have killed tens of thousands of Christiansin religious crises from 2011 election crises till date in the North, and Moslems who are IPOB have destroyed only Cows and properties, with killings of not more than 50 Northerners, from 2000 till date.

SIRTee15:


Neither Obasanjo nor Jonathan won the core northern states when they contested against a northerner- Buhari.
You want to know how they won? They swept the whole southern region and won majority votes in the middle belt. They never won northeast or northwest.

This proves u don't actually need the core north to win election as a southern presidential candidate. What u need is a tight grip on the south and perform very well in the north central, a region that doesn't have the herd mentality of the core northern states.

For the first time we have southern candidates esp Tinubu who has no hope of sweeping the southern region, will perform poorly in middlebelt but hopes northeast and northwest votes will make him president.
Tinubu will indeed have conjured the greatest abracadabra ever known if he can win next year election.


Obi would have had a better chance if he's running under a main party, but the labour party structure is quite weak nationwide. He will likely perform poorly in the southwest, struggle in middlebelt and crash in the core north.
This election is for Atiku to win if he knows what he's doing.

I respect you your analysis is perfect and correct

Aliou007:
Times have changed, election is about numbers now, no more magu-magu...and No, the real Northerners can't vote a southern president after all the killings and ill treatments they've been getting from them. Unlike before when there was peaceful coexistence between every tribe

You if you had common sense logic about politics in Nigeria, you would have known that the North votes based on religion, not tribe.

Tinubu to defeat Atiku and Kwakwanso in the North? Nor be juju be dat? The only person capable of doing that is Buhari, and he is no longer in the race.

Truth is, this election will put up an ethnic colouration, maybe not in its entirety though: SW for Tinubu, SS/SE for Obi, North for Atiku and Kwakwanso; anyone of them that can have a considerable spillover from the other regions would win the election, so the real work is outside of their respective regions.

My take.

garfield1:


If atiku wins the north,it will be by a razor thin margin.historically,the north votes for fanatics.bashir tofa lost to abiola up north,shagari struggled to win the north.1999 the north adopted falae yet obj won the north.tinubu will win the north or lose narrowly

go and re read your history very well.. it was Obasanjo that the north adopted as their candidate.. check very well yoruba adopted olu falae and north adopted Obasanjo and pdp structure in south east work in the favour of Obasanjo that is how Obasanjo won

So power of incumbency as dissapperred now that it is Tinubu's turn.

asanausana91:
Jonathan won because of power of incumbency, Obasanjo was the northern candidate in 1999.
Ask yourself how many how many states in the north did Jonathan win in 2011.

Babysho:


Woah what if the north is now split between Atiku and Tinubu and the entire south west and south east votes for Peter Obi. This could actually be advantageous for Peter Obi!

Entire South West would Vote for Peter Obi ?

They would not do it...

South east.

1. Obi --- 50%
2. Atiku-- 35%
3. Tinubu 15%.

South south.

1. Obi --- 50%
2.Atiku -- 30%
3. Tinubu 20%

South west.

1. Tinubu 50%
2. Obi ---- 30%
3. Atiku -- 20%

North central

1. Tinubu 35%
2. Atiku --- 33%
3. Obi ----- 32%

North west

1. Atiku -- 38%
2. Tinubu 37%
3. Obi ---- 25%

North east

1. Atiku --- 50%
2. Tinubu - 35%
3. Obi ------ 15%

Obi will get votes in the Norths cot cee of datti who happens to be a Zaria boy, young Nigerians over there.

Obi will get votes in the south west cot cee of young Nigerians.

Obi will get votes from the east and south south cos he is a son of the soil and SS see him as a brother.

Atiku will get votes from the North cos he his a son of the soil.

Atiku will get votes from the south south n south east cos the VP is SS and PDP has a good structure over there.

Atiku will get very small votes in the south west cos of tinubu strong hold and they only have Oyo state who is currently not with him.

Tinubu will get votes from the south west cos he his a son of the soil n that's his strong hold.

Tinubu will hardly see votes in the south east and south south, relying on oshomole n movie omoagege has no guarantee.

Tinubu will get votes from the north cos his VP is from there, then the APC controls most northern states.

Money will play a minor role among the extremely poor to swing votes.. Most youths have a mindset of collect n vote who u want, money may and may not back fire.

As it stands, its very tight and too early to call...

Yoighaman:
Tinubu to defeat Atiku and Kwakwanso in the North? Nor be juju be dat? The only person capable of doing that is Buhari, and he is no longer in the race.

Truth is, this election will put up an ethnic colouration, maybe not in its entirety though: SW for Tinubu, SS/SE for Obi, North for Atiku and Kwakwanso; anyone of them that can have a considerable spillover from the other regions would win the election, so the real work is outside of their respective regions.

My take.

Yeah with Federal Government magic, Bola Ahmed Tinubu & APC will win, no honor amongst thieves, Peter Obi should have just remained in pdp to help wrestle power from Apc.

This his Labor party illusion is only to the benefit of Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

Aliou007:
RMK can only sweep votes in KANO and JIGAWA. He'll be 1st while Atiku will be second. But that doesn't scare Atiku because he knows he'll get most of the votes from the votes northeast (Adamawa, Gombe, Taraba and Bauchi) i didn't include Borno because he won't get much from there but will get a fair share. Let's not talk about the core north (Kebbi, Katsina, Zamfara, Sokoto, Kaduna etc), these are states where BAT and PO won't fly and these are states that are sure to give Atiku above 500,000 votes. Whether we like it or not PDP will definitely get nothing less than 1000 votes from other states. Afterall, the VP is from the south. The earlier we realize that Politics in Nigeria can't fly without a northerner in it the better for us. All of the three major parties (LP, APC and PDP) have a northerner in them. Either as President or VP. This is just my own analysis. But as for me, I'll rather waste my vote on His Excellency PO. That's my choice. So help me God!
But leave RMK out of this. Him own na play lol

OK....

Buckeyemedia1:
Yeah with Federal Government magic, Bola Ahmed Tinubu & APC will win.

Buhari will never leave his fellow Hausa/Fulani to support a Yoruba man, just forget it, worst case scenario, he'd just play neutral.

13october:


Tinubu will win Niger and do well in Nasarawa. Kwara, Kogi is good ground while Benue will be share among them

so you think Tinubu will beat Atiku in nasarawa and kwarà?
In kwara people are not happy with oto ge governor so saraki will take advantage of the fight btw lai Muhammed and the governor. In plateau, Bauchi and Benue Tinubu would have won but this Muslim Muslim ticket will make him loose much. In Abuja, Tinubu will not get up to 10%.
A southerner can only win if one of the two steps down for another, but as it stands now that probability is zero.
Atiku is the next president!

E get point

garfield1:


Tinubu can beat atiku in the north,ss,se

Yoighaman:


Buhari will never leave his fellow Hausa/Fulani to support a Yoruba man, just forget it, worst case scenario, he'd just play neutral.

What a naive way of thinking, quite obvious you are not into politics, if not you would have been aware that all politics is personal interest.

They would support a stranger that puts food on the table, than a kinsman that starves them.

As long as the generals are alive, Obasanjo, Babaginda, Abdulsalem, Gusau, Abubakar Atiku can never be President of The Federal Republic of Nigeria.

DrAkpamudehe:


Obidiiots will start cursing you after reading this thread even when the truth is spelt out

nwoke agulu. Agulu adiro.......?

FatherOfJesus:
If he can address the Wike camp, it will take God to stop him.

The truth is that, Tinubu cannot beat Atiku in northwest and northeast and Peter Obi will not do well there. Atiku is going to comfortably win these regions. Forget about the APC structure, A Yoruba man cannot beat a core northerner here, it’s not possible. These parts of the country has herd mentality, last figures proves that. It’s a winner takes all region and no splitting, especially in the northwest

Tinubu will not win much outside of southwest, kogi and Kwara. Tinubu will not win a single local government in southeast or south south. The southsouth has strong PDP structure and Its between Atiku and Peter obi.

In the Middle belt, Tinubu will perform well in kwara and kogi, Atiku will do well in Benue, nassarawa and Niger. Obi will do well in Abuja

In southeast, Obi will win while Atiku will be second. Tinubu May not win a polling unit here.

All the predictive analysis points to Atiku emerging victorious without any sentiments here.

YOUR OPINION AND NOTHING MORE

Workch:
i am obidient, I am just being realistic

realistic or sentimental. We all know obi is south east and south east is PDP

Atiku will definitely win the election because north is for him. No two ways about it

ogatboy:
Your analysis fail to factor in the popularity of kwankwaso in the NC so it is flawed. Atiku cannot win any zone outside the NE and NW.

kwankwaso will tell his supporters to vote for Atiku a day before the election. If doubt me ask Tambuwal.