The preliminary INEC voters registration figures across the North-central states and the FCT are as follows :

Benue - 2,832,077
Niger - 2,759,943
Nasarawa - 1,946,040
Kwara - 1,736,858
Plateau - 2,840,094
Kogi - 2,009,229
and FCT - 1,556,197

FCT - In 2019, out of the 451,000 vote cast, PDP took 259,997 votes to APC 152,224 votes, amounting PDP taking 58% of the total votes cast to APC 34%.
If you have been to the federal capital before, or very conversant with the political convictions there. I don't need to explain to you how the federal capital has always been Anti-government politically. People who live or base there always vote against any incumbent government and its party during election seasons. Their voting pattern over there never favours the incumbent government's Party. PDP ought to be confident of having a free ride here. But i think this time around majority of the people there will just decide to do away with the two-main party(APC & PDP) and go with the third force, LP. The percentage after voting should be like this: PDP - 23, APC - 35 , LP - 42%

NASARAWA : Nasarawa state is the closest state to the FCT, it is just a walk through into the federal capital. Over the past years, it has always been a battle of dominance between the PDP and APC and this time i still see it as the usual two horse race. The key game-changer lies with the incumbent Governor, Engr. Sule's influence. And the question will be if he can actually deliver the state for APC's Bola Tinubu, judging by the fact he managed to scale into Power himself under the APC in 2019 against a very political influencial David Ombugadu of PDP. Also the presidential Election in the state was one of the closest in 2019 with the APC polling 289,903 to 283, 847 of the PDP.

As usual, places like Laminga, Eggon, keffi , Akwanga, Main Nasarawa town (where Federal polytechnic is situated) , Wamba, Doma, Nasarawa Toto, and other will be shared betweeen the PDP and APC. Except Karu L.G.A( Abacha road, Mararaba, karu, Kabayi, Masaka) where i think the Labour party (LP) will have over 80% of the total votes to be cast there due to its very close proximity with Abuja. People who live over there share the same political ideology with the Abuja base citizens. That is where i think the Labour party will be able to savage vote from in the state. The votes after casting in the state should look like this: PDP - 35, APC - 40, LP - 10, NNPP - 15

BENUE - As it stands APC or PDP should just count Benue out of the Northcentral states they are hoping to get majority votes from. Just like FCT, the PDP ought to be very confidence in having a free ride here also. But with the growing influence of the presidential candidate of the Labour party, Peter Obi in the state. Coupled with the abysmal performance of the incumbent governor, Ortom in all aspect of governance especially security, the people over there may take it very personal with the party.

And also with Gov. Ortom being one of the G5 governors who pulled out their support out from Atiku's camp. The percentage after voting should look like this in the state: PDP - 30% , APC - 20% , LP - 50%


KOGI - i share this opinion that out of the Big-7 states ( Bornu, Kastina, Yobe, Zamfara, Oyo, kogi,Kebbi) Which APC is sure of having almost 80% + of the votes cast, Kogi will produce the highest votes for APC. The three major tribes in the state( Ebira, Igala, and Yoruba speaking Kabba) are tribes that align well with the APC as a party and Asiwaju Tinubu as a person. Places like Ayingba, Egbe, Akpa, Ajaokuta are in the bag for APC. Especially Okene L.G.A which is expected to produce the majority of votes in any local government of the state for APC with almost 95% of the votes expected from there.

Also with the growing political influence of Gov. Yahya bello in the states. APC is sure of having 89% of the total votes cast in the state.

KWARA : In 2019, out of the 487,000 vote cast. APC had over 308,000 votes to 139,000 of PDP. Amounting to like APC 63% to 28% for PDP.
Kwara will be a tight contest between the APC and PDP with many political bigiwigs like the incumbent governor Abdulrasaq, Present minister of Information, Lai muhammad, Bukola Saraki of PDP and other political influencial persons all jostling for political control in the state.
I am of the opinion that APC will still come out victorious this time again. But this time around with a wider margin. Not forgetting the 'O To ge' political revolution which is still very strong and alive in the state. At the end of the voting, APC should be 70% of the total vote cast to PDP 25%.With other political parties sharing the remaining 5% (PRP, ADP, AAC, NNPP, LP, APGA, APM, ZLP, ADC, APP, YPP and SDP and the others)

PLATEAU : Plateau is a key state in the presidential race and any politician willing to win the race will hope and work hard to win.

Just like Kano, kaduna, Kastina, Lagos, bauchi, and Jigawa state. Plateau was one the 7 states that exceeded the 1million+ voters turnout in 2019. The people response to carrying out their political franchise is very high there. PDP had the majority votes in the state during the presidential election in 2019, polling over 548,665 votes to edge APC with 468,555 on a 55% - 45% percentage respectively.

This time around , with the Governor of the state, Lalong as the DG of the APC presidential campaign council. He is surely going to do everything to make sure the votes are in favour of the APC presidential candidate.

With LP now controlling some of the regular PDP voters in the states. The APC will surely not have a problem this time.
APC should still retain 45% of the votes same with 2019, while PDP and LP will divide the 55% votes of the 2019 PDP voters. With LP to have the highest share of 30%, while PDP - takes 25% .


NIGER: APC is surely going to win by a Landslide in Niger state. In 2019 during the presidential election, out of the approximately 891,000 votes cast, APC had approximately 612,000. That is almost like 68% of the total vote cast. With recent happenings, there hasn't been any change in the political setttings of the states. Infact, little to no news is coming out of the state except where we have the state governor, Abubakar Sani bello declaring his full support for the All progressive candidate, Bola Tinubu.
Unlike 2019, i see APC having a bigger vote percentage like 75% , NNPP coming close behind with 15% .. While PDP take the remaining 10%.

Approximately Voters Turnout:
All in all the expected voters turnout in each North central states with FCT should be approximately:

Benue - 1.3m
Niger - 1.5m
Nasarawa - 1m
Kwara - 800k
Kogi - 900k
Plateau - 1.9m
FCT - 700k
Giving a total of 8.1m expected voters from the registered voters across the 6 states and FCT.

VOTES
We should be having an estimated vote return like this after voting in the 6 states.
NNPP - 700k
APC - 3.5m
PDP - 1.9 m
LP - 2m


NNPP - 700k votes across the 6 North central states will be coming from only Niger, Nasarawa, and Plateau... It will struggle for votes in Benue, Kogi, Kwara and the FCT because the his core supporters, the kwankwansiyas usually travel from these states to the core northern states to votes.

PDP - 1.9m votes will be coming from all 6 Northcentral states and FCT with majority of it from Nasarawa their only stronghold in Northcentral as it stands now. Substantial votes from Kwara and only few from Kogi, Niger and FCT. It will struggle for votes in Plateau state.

APC - 3.5m votes will be coming majorly from winning Kogi ,Niger and Kwara. And also substantial votes from Plateau .. Nasarawa will be shared with PDP. While the party will struggle in FCT and Benue.

LP - majority of the 2m votes will be coming from winning Benue and FCT. And Substantial votes from Plateau. LP will steal few of the traditional PDP votes in Nasarawa. The party will struggle for votes in Kogi. While it still remain relatively unknown in Kwara state and Niger state.

LOSERS and WiNNERS
Losers(PDP) - Unfortunately for them, the party ought to be cruising to victory in the North central region but for the Labour party acting as a big time spoiler, sharing some of the party's votes especially in places like FCT, Plateau, Nasarawa and most importantly Benue state.

Winner(APC) - APC is not known to be a strong party in the North-central region, they always had to suffer to get majority votes from the region. But with the growing influence of the Labour party in the region especially in the PDP stronghold. PDP now having to share some of its voters with the LP . All APC have to do is just retain its votes gotten in 2019, then it is victory for them in the Northcentral 2023.