The Most Neutral And Realistic Election Prediction. - Politics - Nairaland
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| The Most Neutral And Realistic Election Prediction. by wonder233: 1:49pm On Feb 14, 2023 |
This prediction looks at how the top 4 contenders will fare across the country in the presidential elections. It doesn't make unrealistic assumptions, but based solely on the raw facts on the ground. Look through it with an open mind and tell me what you think. 1. Southwest Lagos APC: 45% LP: 40% PDP: 15% Ogun APC: 55% LP: 25% PDP: 20% Oyo APC: 45% LP: 25% PDP: 30% Osun APC: 50% PDP: 40% LP: 10% Ekiti APC: 45% LP: 25% PDP: 30% Ondo APC: 45% LP: 40% PDP: 15% 2. Northwest Kano NNPP: 33% PDP: 33% APC: 33% LP: 1% Kaduna APC: 40% LP: 25% PDP: 25% NNPP: 10% Katsina PDP: 40% APC: 45% NNPP: 15% Zamfara PDP: 40% APC: 60% Jigawa PDP: 35% APC: 40% NNPP: 25% Kebbi PDP: 45% APC: 55% Sokoto PDP: 50% APC: 50% 3. Northcentral Niger PDP: 45% APC: 49% NNPP: 4% LP: 2% Kwara APC: 60% PDP: 25% LP: 15% Kogi APC: 60% PDP: 30% LP: 10% Benue LP: 45% PDP: 35% APC: 20% Plateau LP: 40% APC: 20% PDP: 40% Nasarawa LP: 15% APC: 45% PDP: 40% 4. Northeast Adamawa PDP: 45% LP: 15% APC: 40% Bauchi PDP: 50% APC: 50% Yobe PDP: 40% APC: 60% Borno APC: 60% PDP: 40% Gombe PDP: 48% APC: 52% Taraba PDP: 55% LP: 10% APC: 35% 5.Southeast Anambra LP: 95% PDP: 5% Imo LP: 90% PDP 5% APC: 5% Ebonyi LP: 90% APC: 5% PDP: 5% Abia LP: 98% PDP: 2% Enugu LP: 99% PDP: 1% 6. Southsouth Rivers LP: 90% PDP: 10% Edo LP: 98% PDP: 2% Delta LP: 75% PDP: 25% Crossriver LP: 80% APC: 5% Others: 15% Bayelsa LP: 80% APC: 5% PDP: 15% Akwa ibom LP: 80% PDP: 20% 7. FCT LP: 40% PDP: 30% APC: 30% 5 Likes 1 Share |
| Re: The Most Neutral And Realistic Election Prediction. by gfelo(m): 1:53pm On Feb 14, 2023 |
you try small 9 Likes 1 Share |
| Re: The Most Neutral And Realistic Election Prediction. by Sammy07: 2:05pm On Feb 14, 2023 |
LMAO. Please stop using percentages, use figures cos it seems you all don't know what you are saying 14 Likes 2 Shares |
| Re: The Most Neutral And Realistic Election Prediction. by Zulum500: 2:06pm On Feb 14, 2023 |
Haha okorosss keep hallucinating figures Na datti first cry 🤣😁😁 11 Likes 2 Shares |
| Re: The Most Neutral And Realistic Election Prediction. by Sammy07: 2:13pm On Feb 14, 2023 |
According to your prediction Ekiti APC: 45% LP: 25% PDP: 30% Ondo APC: 45% LP: 40% PDP: 15% So if we have 800,000 voters in both states. What you are saying is Ekiti APC 360,000 PDP 240,000 LP 200,000 Ondo Apc 360,000 LP 320,000 PDP 120,000 Please where will LP have such votes? Are you counting trees join? We wey dey pray make Ondo no go to PDP, your own alaba poll says LP will have more votes than PDP and closer to APC 😁😂😂😂 25 Likes 3 Shares |
| Re: The Most Neutral And Realistic Election Prediction. by Olaoluwa122: 2:22pm On Feb 14, 2023 |
Sammy07:Boss I want to ask Can P.D.P flip Ondo state? |
| Re: The Most Neutral And Realistic Election Prediction. by kcnwaigbo: 2:26pm On Feb 14, 2023 |
Sammy07:You should have asked how exactly the APC hopes to get the ridiculous votes he allocated to them in the NW and NE 10 Likes 3 Shares |
| Re: The Most Neutral And Realistic Election Prediction. by socialmediaman: 2:27pm On Feb 14, 2023 |
These numbers are probably assuming a high voter turnout for the APC in the north. Why do you think voters will massively turn out to vote for Tinubu in the NC, NW and parts of NE? 2 Likes |
| Re: The Most Neutral And Realistic Election Prediction. by Amumaigwe: 2:34pm On Feb 14, 2023 |
wonder233: Corn and cassava statiatics |
| Re: The Most Neutral And Realistic Election Prediction. by wonder233: 2:39pm On Feb 14, 2023 |
They are not voting Tinubu, they are voting APC socialmediaman: 3 Likes |
| Re: The Most Neutral And Realistic Election Prediction. by wonder233: 2:42pm On Feb 14, 2023 |
The most ovbious fact is that the opposition hurt its chances by splitting up... Imagine adding the margins of PDP, LP and NNPP. It might go to a runoff, however, APC and PDP have the brightest chances. In failing to penetrate the core muslim north, LP has no path to victory. 7 Likes |
| Re: The Most Neutral And Realistic Election Prediction. by Kyase(m): 2:45pm On Feb 14, 2023 |
Sammy07: When an obidient predict neutrally🤣🤣🤣🤣 Me I dey wait for next week 5 Likes |
| Re: The Most Neutral And Realistic Election Prediction. by Zincfingers: 2:47pm On Feb 14, 2023 |
How would LP defeat PDP in the south west  3 Likes |
| Re: The Most Neutral And Realistic Election Prediction. by Godwin4444: 2:51pm On Feb 14, 2023 |
Error number 1…..u wisely put it that obi will get 25% in all south west Error number 2…. Peter obi can’t get 25% in kaduna, y not give it to kwankwanso Error number 3…..so Peter obi will get over 95% in both south east n south south U are decieving yourself 10 Likes 1 Share |
| Re: The Most Neutral And Realistic Election Prediction. by IVORY2009(m): 2:54pm On Feb 14, 2023 |
wonder233: This can only happen if the use of money to buy voters is allowed. 1 Like |
| Re: The Most Neutral And Realistic Election Prediction. by drlateef: 2:57pm On Feb 14, 2023 |
wonder233: Cross River -APC 5%, never, in a state where APC rules? Have you seen their campaigns in recent times? 7 Likes 2 Shares |
| Re: The Most Neutral And Realistic Election Prediction. by siofra(f): 3:02pm On Feb 14, 2023 |
Tinubu will surely win  7 Likes 2 Shares |
| Re: The Most Neutral And Realistic Election Prediction. by NaijaCuzin: 3:06pm On Feb 14, 2023 |
Hmm |
| Re: The Most Neutral And Realistic Election Prediction. by bryning899: 3:06pm On Feb 14, 2023 |
wonder233: |
| Re: The Most Neutral And Realistic Election Prediction. by muykem: 3:19pm On Feb 14, 2023 |
Peter Obi will not win two states in South South. I am ready to stake my money. 2 Likes 1 Share |
| Re: The Most Neutral And Realistic Election Prediction. by chinchum(m): 3:44pm On Feb 14, 2023 |
wonder233:let me humour your prediction. Who is going to win the run off? Or you think because obi wins 101% of votes in Se and Ss states, he will be declared president? |
| Re: The Most Neutral And Realistic Election Prediction. by colestephan86: 3:53pm On Feb 14, 2023 |
wonder233:Make God no allow them make them kii you |
| Re: The Most Neutral And Realistic Election Prediction. by wonder233: 3:56pm On Feb 14, 2023 |
Nope, the race is between APC and PDP. With APC slightly having the advantage. By failing to penetrate the core muslim north, LP has no identifiable path to victory. This is a neutral realistic poll. By seeing the percentages I allocated to LP in its strongholds, you immediately jumped into conclusions. But if you can be open minded, you will see the larger picture predicts an APC victory chinchum: |
| Re: The Most Neutral And Realistic Election Prediction. by Landowner101(m): 3:56pm On Feb 14, 2023 |
muykem:Let's use escrow, let's stake #200,000 1 Like |
| Re: The Most Neutral And Realistic Election Prediction. by malel1: 4:09pm On Feb 14, 2023 |
Landowner101: Leave that fool does he have any money to stalk |
| Re: The Most Neutral And Realistic Election Prediction. by Sammy07: 4:32pm On Feb 14, 2023 |
Olaoluwa122: It can flip, but APc should win Ondo |
| Re: The Most Neutral And Realistic Election Prediction. by wonder233: 4:42pm On Feb 14, 2023 |
1. LP won't get 25% in all Southwest states, check Osun. In most of the south, most of PDP's votes would go to LP. 2. For Kaduna, Kwankwanso cannot get Obi's votes, Kwankwanso, Atiku and APC will all share the muslim votes. No Kaduna Christian will vote for any of those 3. The 25% Obi is getting in Kaduna is from the Southern Kaduna Christian population, which make up about 25% of the population of Kaduna state. 3. The breakdown for South East and South South is there for you to check again. In some states, it is 80s, some 70s. Check it again Godwin4444: |
| Re: The Most Neutral And Realistic Election Prediction. by kayfra: 4:50pm On Feb 14, 2023 |
Ondo LP 40%!!! Lmao Obi won't get 10% in Ondo. APC landslide in Ondo and Ekiti 1 Like |
| Re: The Most Neutral And Realistic Election Prediction. by 3ple9iner: 5:41pm On Feb 14, 2023 |
Lol this election go shock people oo |
| Re: The Most Neutral And Realistic Election Prediction. by Schrodinger2(m): 5:43pm On Feb 14, 2023 |
siofra:Do you have voters card and are you voting him? Op, your stats is quite outrageous especially in the whole of the South. |
| Re: The Most Neutral And Realistic Election Prediction. by nnewsnjobs: 5:50pm On Feb 14, 2023 |
From your analysis, Tinubu winning margin will not be up to 60% in any of the south west state. But you are projecting Tinubu to win up to 60% in 6 states from the North. While you projected Atiku to win up to 50% in only 3 states from the North. So Yoruba with their tribalism will not vote for Tinubu, it it the North that will leave Atiku and Kwankwaso to cast all their votes for Tinubu. Just dey play dey go. |
| Re: The Most Neutral And Realistic Election Prediction. by chinchum(m): 5:50pm On Feb 14, 2023 |
wonder233:but allocating 0% to a ruling party in any of the 36 states automatically makes me question your understanding of Nigerian politics. There is no chance in hell that a ruling party at the centre will have 0% votes. |
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