Nigerians will head to the polls Saturday in a fiercely-contested presidential vote that analysts say is too close to call.

It will be the largest democratic exercise on the continent as Africa’s most populous nation picks a new president.

Nigeria's Buhari, in last UN speech, slams 'corrosive impact' of leaders who cling to power
The crucial election comes as the country battles myriad economic and security problems that range from fuel and cash shortages to rising terror attacks, high inflation, and a plummeting local currency.

For the first time since the country’s return to democratic rule in 1999, none of the candidates is an incumbent or a former military leader.

Outgoing President Muhammadu Buhari is term-limited and will step down amid a patchy legacy that has brought “a lot of frustration and anger” to Nigerian voters, analysts say.

Who are the candidates?
Eighteen candidates are in the running for Nigeria’s highest office, each confident they can turn the country’s fortunes around if voted into power, but opinion polls suggest three are leading the race for the popular vote.

One of the key contenders is Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the candidate of Buhari’s party, the All Progressives Congress (APC). Another is the main opposition leader and former vice president Atiku Abubakar, of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP).

Nigeria’s presidential elections have typically been two-horse races between the ruling and opposition parties, but this year’s vote has a third strong contender, Peter Obi, who is running under the lesser known Labour Party.

Tinubu, 70, a former governor of Nigeria’s wealthy Lagos State, wields significant influence in the southwestern region where he is acclaimed as a political godfather and kingmaker.

The affluent political veteran, boasts of aiding the election of Buhari to the presidency on his fourth attempt in 2015, after three previous unsuccessful bids.

After decades as a political puppet master, Tinubu declares it is now his turn to emerge from the shadows into the presidency; his campaign slogan is “Emi Lokan,” which translates to “it is my turn,” in his native Yoruba language.

The ruling party candidate has, however, been dogged by allegations of graft which he strongly denies. Critics say he has also not convincingly addressed concerns about his health, and has, at times, appeared confused and incoherent on the campaign trail. He has also made gaffes that have made him the butt of jokes and viral memes on social media.

Tinubu has also come under criticism for abstaining from presidential debates and delegating questions about his manifesto to members of his team during a recent outing at the UK think tank Chatham House.

One of Tinubu’s main challengers is the opposition party’s Abubakar, who is running for the sixth time following five previous losses.

Abubakar, 76, who served as vice president from 1999 to 2007, is a staunch capitalist who made his fortune investing in various sectors in the country. The tycoon has been investigated for corruption in the past. However, he denies any wrongdoing.

Many believe Abubakar’s presidential ambition might usurp an unofficial arrangement to rotate the presidency between Nigeria’s northern and southern regions, since he is from the same northern region as the outgoing leader, Buhari.

Peter Obi is a two-time former governor of Anambra State who is being touted as a credible alternative to the two major candidates.

Obi eschews the excesses of the typical ‘African Big Man’ leader He shuns a large entourage, flies econoentourage, flies economy class and carries his own luggage. His “no frills” approach has attracted hordes of supporters, mostly young Nigerians who call themselves ‘Obidients.’


Peter Obi, Labour Party presidential candidate, center, and his running mate Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed, second left.
Benson Ibeabuchi/Bloomberg/Getty Images
Obi is also the only Christian among the leading candidates. His southeastern region has yet to produce a president or vice president since Nigeria returned to civil rule in 1999.

The ruling party’s Tinubu, although from the religiously mixed southwestern part of the country, is a Muslim and also chose a Muslim running mate, fueling public anger over his choice.

Described by Tinubu as “Mr. Stingy,” Obi, 61, is famed for his frugal approach and is seen as a ‘Mr Clean’ of Nigerian politics.

However, his offshore accounts were among those found in the Pandora Papers, which exposed the hidden riches of the global elite in 2021. Obi denies any wrongdoing.

Will elections hold?
The past two elections have been postponed at short notice and there are fears this one will suffer the same fate. However the electoral commission insists there will be no disruptions.

Prof. Kingsley Moghalu, a political economist and former presidential candidate in the 2019 election told CNN he expected a high turnout, “except if suppressed by a security breakdown of any sort,” he told CNN.

More than 93 million Nigerians are registered to vote but uncertainty hangs over voter turnout on polling day, with insecurity among the biggest concerns.

Public policy analyst Abideen Olasupo told CNN the uncertainties surrounding this year’s elections have put off many voters.

“Nigerian voters are currently the most disturbed and confused voters in the world right now because they are not sure if the election will hold; and if it will hold, they are not sure if the process will not be manipulated,” Olasupo said.

Citizens have also been disrupted by an attempt to curb vote buying by making the old currency notes useless to prevent rogue politicians from stockpiling cash. But there are fears shortage of the new naira notes could disrupt the elections itself.

Electoral body INEC reportedly warned that the inability of banks to distribute enough of the new cash could make it difficult to pay temporary staff and security guards needed to operate thousands of polling stations for presidential and parliamentary elections on Feb. 25.

As it is, voting will not take place in more than 200 polling units across Nigeria, in places such as Imo and Taraba (two of Nigeria’s conflict-prone states) says INEC, because of concerns over security.

Separatist gangs and marauding gunmen known locally as bandits have terrorized parts of the country through kidnappings for ransom.

Elsewhere, other impediments threaten voter turnout as some Nigerians are yet to collect their permanent voter’s card (PVC) with less than a week to the poll.

What are the issues?
The co-founder and head of intelligence at data company Stears, Michael Famoroti, tells CNN that critical issues around security and the economy will be top of mind for voters and could influence their electoral choices.

“Nigerians fall under two buckets: One is insecurity. However, overall, the main issue that Nigerians agree needs to be dealt with is the economy,” he said, with concerns ranging from poverty to unemployment and policy.

“The cash crunch, petrol scarcity … are issues that are likely going to be top of mind for those who make it to the polls and arguably could sway the votes,” Famoroti says.

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Fuel shortages and scarcity of the newly redesigned local currency have stirred violent protests in parts of Nigeria as millions of people struggle to get their hands on new versions of bank notes.

Nigerians expect the eventual winner of the presidential poll to hit the ground running in finding solutions to those problems, including tackling the country’s burgeoning debt profile, oil theft, and a controversial petrol subsidy that deprives the country of major oil revenue.

The top three candidates have made promises to tackle some of these issues. The ruling party’s Tinubu vows to create jobs, grow the economy, and “obliterate terror, kidnapping, banditry, and violent crime from the face of our nation.”

Touting a “recover Nigeria” mantra, the PDP’s Abubakar says he wants to “block government wastages” by first running a small government, weaning the country off the petrol subsidy, and making it “the hub of crude oil refining in Africa.”

The Labour Party’s Obi says his government will be keen to shift Nigeria’s focus “from consumption to production” while also being determined “to fight and significantly reduce corruption” and create systems to reduce unemployment, insecurity, and inflation.

Who is tipped to win?
A predictive poll by Stears puts Obi ahead of the two main challengers in a large voter turnout scenario. A lesser turnout will favor Tinubu, according to the Stears’ poll.

“There was a scenario where we only considered voters who had picked up their PVC … based on that scenario, the Labour Party candidate is the most likely winner,” Famoroti told CNN.

“However, we then also estimated a low turnout scenario. The idea is that these are the harder than hardcore voters and those that most likely will turn up to vote on the day. Under that scenario, the APC candidate … emerges victorious,” he added.

Another poll by Lagos-based SBM Intelligence does not foresee a frontrunner but suggests that Obi and Abubakar could garner a sufficient number of ballots to meet the 25% vote spread in 24 of Nigeria’s 36 states required by law to win.

The forecast is different for the Political Africa Initiative (POLAF) whose survey polled three million people and predicts a close race between the opposition PDP (38%) and the ruling APC (29%).

Obi’s Labour Party is projected to occupy third place with 27% of the votes.

Nigeria's Abubakar launches presidential bid to to save country from 'frightening descent' into anarchy
“This election is extremely difficult to predict,” Moghalu, the political economist, told CNN.

“That’s because of the ‘Third Force’ factor of Labor Party candidate Peter Obi, which has scrambled the projections of the two traditionally dominant parties, APC and PDP.

“While many still believe one of the two will come out on top ultimately, the fact that several scientific opinion polls have put Obi in the lead means that the possibility of an upset clearly exists,” says Moghalu.

Moghalu believes Nigerians may vote largely along ethnic and religious lines, as well as traditional party lines.

“The only major factor that is an ‘issue’, and will influence many votes, is the hunger for a change in direction which millions of young and middle-aged voters have, and for that reason support Obi. Will that be enough to propel him to victory? That’s the X-factor.”

http://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/21/africa/nigeria-presidential-poll-2023-intl-cmd/index.html?utm_source=fbCNNi&utm_campaign=africa&utm_medium=social


A new Nigeria is more than possible. The whole world will respect us if we can stand as a people and elect someone of our choice who isn't part of the establishment. The beauty of it is that we can also fire him if he disappoints, but you can't say so for Tinubu or Atiku who see themselves as demigods. Once they get there, you can't get them out no matter how terribly they're running the country.

My message to Nigerians is this: HIRE WHO YOU CAN FIRE.

Nigeria will be great again!!

CNN describes Tinubu as regional candidate.
While his supporters on Nairaland keep disturbing us with their unnecessary talk talk

Tinubu, 70, a former governor of Nigeria’s wealthy Lagos State, wields significant influence in the southwestern region

This is direct endorsement of Peter Obi for President by the United States cable news network the CNN

God bless Peter Obi of Nigeria


Cc Nlfpmod Oam4j Mynd44 Seun

The whole world knows the truth but Tinubu urchíns at Iragbiji won't accept it

Vote Peter Obi for the betterment of our country

CNN don't worry, soon we will have a president that speaks what the world can understand, a president that your stations can interview and Nigerians will not be ashamed of him muttering gibberish balablu.

Thiefnubuu will soon create fake CNN that will tip him to win

Peter Obi = Change

It's Obi 'O' Clock 🕛

Tinubu is gone


Otilo

No traces

Urchins necks getting ready to be pressed for eight years

This is the time for us to do away with tribalism, religion and personal interests

Even a 14 year old in Nigeria as at this moment knows
Who we want as the president

For a man to be able to perform very well that man must be physically fit, mentally fit and he must be aware of his environment
Lets not pretend that we are not aware that a particular candidate is not mentally and physically fit
He is not even aware of what is going on in his environment

Every Nigeria knows this..please don't because of tribe and religion repeat our mistakes
We just suffered Buhari tenure. The pain of Buhari incessant travel for medical check up is very fresh in our heart
I'm not igbo, am not hausa am not yoruba
Am from Edo sate. Please pity the future of our children and do away with tribalism and religion and do the right thing at your polling unit

These are one of the many evidence showing that he is mentally not strong. The national anthem was going on
Oshiomhole have to call him to order....we all are seeing this please 🙏. Let do the right thing...
Please if you can't give out your daughter or sister to an old man suffering from dementia, speech defects, shuffling gait, not mentally and physically fit
But wants to bring it upon Nigeria may you and your children knows no peace

PrinceOfLagos:
This is direct endorsement of Peter Obi for President by the United States cable news network the CNN

God bless Peter Obi of Nigeria


Cc Nlfpmod Oam4j Mynd44 Seun

They go do like they no see this one. Na to carry fake news go front page

Obi will win in large turnout scenario and lose in lesser turnout scenario according to the prediction.

I take God beg Nigerians who want a new Nigeria to turnout in large numbers.

Nigerians want Obi

So a reputable media outlet like CNN too can be deceived and fooled by the weightless LP presidential race.

Obi is good but doesn’t possess the electoral capital, most especially, presence at the suburbs and grass roots.

Social media and city popularity has never won anyone victory in major electoral contest. Buhari was popular in the NW during his days in the opposition, but lacked the national spread and electoral capital to win.

So, enough of these jokes of opinion polls.

Praxis758:
So a reputable media outlet like CNN too can be deceived and fooled by the weightless LP presidential race.

Obi is good but doesn’t possess the electoral capital, most especially, presence at the suburbs and grass roots.

Social media and city popularity has never won anyone victory in major electoral contest. Buhari was popular in the NW during his days in the opposition, but lacked the national spread and electoral capital to win.

So, enough of these jokes of opinion polls.

Your vote is just one so keep your opinion to yourself and meet us at the poll

PrinceOfLagos:
This is direct endorsement of Peter Obi for President by the United States cable news network the CNN

God bless Peter Obi of Nigeria


Cc Nlfpmod Oam4j Mynd44 Seun

The CNN cannot endorse a candidate in Nigerian elections.
This tendency to lie about little things is one of the reasons Obi is going to lose on Saturday.

Buhari will congratulate Obi latest by 2pm on Sunday while the urinating crack head goes to tribunal

The structure don dey form like this

We all know he has won already.

Make una no shame us oh abeg, I can’t stand telling someone Tinubu is my President…Once they type the name on google, they will think my people are stup!d.

Please ohhh

CNN as a media outfit can release any editorial of their choice! It's a free world!

But the "fact" remains that Asiwaju Jagaban Tinubu would win the Presidential election by a landslide In Shaa ALLAH!

LP/obifooolish ti lule

PDP ti lule

Renewed Hope 2023!

BATified 2023!

Buhariiswicked:


http://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/21/africa/nigeria-presidential-poll-2023-intl-cmd/index.html?utm_source=fbCNNi&utm_campaign=africa&utm_medium=social


win in which country Nigeria or Biafra

Nigerians are funny I swear. Almost every where online we hear Peter obi, Peter obi...

So who are those that attend tinubu rallies that is always full even more than Peter obi own?

In 4 days time you guys would realize how bad Nigeria is or the terrible mistake stupid Nigerians made in 2015 by electing this APC party into power


It would be a miracle if Peter obi win

Ogene001:
Thiefnubuu will soon create fake CNN that will tip him to win

Praxis758:
So a reputable media outlet like CNN too can be deceived and fooled by the weightless LP presidential race.

Obi is good but doesn’t possess the electoral capital, most especially, presence at the suburbs and grass roots.

Social media and city popularity has never won anyone victory in major electoral contest. Buhari was popular in the NW during his days in the opposition, but lacked the national spread and electoral capital to win.

So, enough of these jokes of opinion polls.

So people in the villages don't have families in the city, whom would have called them to direct them on how to vote. Just dey dere dey play. I went to my villa this Xmas my dad and aunty whom use to vote in Lagos, had already transferred their PVC to the villa. They are all Obidient.

Mods, close down this thread. It is different from what CNN wrote.

Praxis758:
So a reputable media outlet like CNN too can be deceived and fooled by the weightless LP presidential race.

Obi is good but doesn’t possess the electoral capital, most especially, presence at the suburbs and grass roots.

Social media and city popularity has never won anyone victory in major electoral contest. Buhari was popular in the NW during his days in the opposition, but lacked the national spread and electoral capital to win.

So, enough of these jokes of opinion polls.

Did you read the main body of what they wrote?