Today, February 25th, is the long-awaited day for all Nigerians as we head to the polls to choose new leaders. The previous months witnessed intense politicking and campaigns, which I posit as the most competitive in recent history. Unlike in previous elections where there were only two bigwigs from the major parties, this election cycle saw the entry of two formidable opponents-Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso. This change tweaked the national political equations making it more complex to resolve.
Peter Obi enjoys a massive support from the youth(majorly from the South) and Christians who insist that it's the turn of one of them to steer the nation after an eight year rule of a Northerner. Kwankwaso's support base is largely in his populous home state of Kano, where he was a governor for two terms. He is also a darling of a large retinue of northern artisans due to his socialist leanings.
Despite the "table shaking" of Obi and Kwankwaso to the polity, neither of them stands a chance to win the elections. Obi has a little or no presence in the northern states. This reality will deny him the requisite 25% votes in at least 25 states. Forget the social media rage about LP gaining grounds in the north, it's all ruse. Obi's running mate, Datti Baba-Ahmed, is billed to lose his ward to either APC or PDP. In summary, PO will give the major parties a bloody nose in the SE and SW, and that's where it ends.
Kwankwaso has far lower chances compared to PO. He's only sure of winning Kano state- with less than 50%. He might get 25% in five more northern states. He won't get such in any southern state. And that's it.
The fact is that today's race is a battle between Bola Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar.

WHAT NEXT FOR OBI AND KWANKWASO?
OBI
As I mentioned earlier, Obi has a big fan base in the SE, SS and parts of Lagos. History just has a way of repeating itself. Obi's populism is very much like Buhari used to enjoy in the North (2003,2007 and 2011). But Buhari could not wade through until he struck an alliance with a Tinubu from SW. There's no way any presidential candidate will win an election without at least getting support of a geopolitical zone outside his region.
After losing this election, it's time for Obi to go full throttle across the Niger to seek for political alliances. Doing this assiduously for four years will help him gain grounds, which when triggered by non performance of the incoming president, can be leveraged to boot the latter out of office.

KWANKWASO
The only chance I see for Kwankwaso to get to become President is if and only if Tinubu clinches today's polls. Since the former is from the south, the latter being a northerner can view for the position after expiration of the next tenure. However, if Atiku wins, Kwankwaso can at best be a VP to a formidable Southern candidate like Obi or Amaechi.

CONCLUSION
These are my permutations for the elections today, based on my experience in following politics for about 20 years. Many a people will definitely disagree with the submissions, but the reality will set in latest by tomorrow. All in all, elections especially in Nigeria should not be a do or die affair. Don't sever the relationships you toiled to build because of any politician. There's no politician who doesn't have that potential to disappoint. The last decade has taught us hard lessons on this. Cast your vote, and pray for the best candidate to win.

Let your vote decide!

The fact is SS stand a better position to produce next president after tinubu than SE.