It's no news that INEC declared Mr. Bola A. Tinubu as the winner of the Feb' 25th elections. Sequel to that, some presidential aspirants have approached the court to examine sensitive material used in the election. This is a precursor to filing appeals for a redress. While we don't know exactly what the various party will be asking for, however based on several commentators on the matter, notably Former Attorney General, Mr, Michael Aondoaka, one can see the various possible angles for upturning the pronouncement of the INEC chairman.


1. Inconsistence in announced and transmitted results.

A notable inconsistence between belatedly transmitted and announced result was recently circulated online. It was the case of Obi Akpor LGA in River State, where LP were clearly short changed in favour of APC. As citizens statisticians continued to pore through results uploaded on the INEC IREV server, expect more of such inconsistences. The potential for this to reduce the number allocated to the supposed winner, while swelling the number of the supposed losers, is a very important result of this. Lagos, PH, Benue, Plateau, Akwa Ibom, are among states where the LP might garner more votes than currently announced for them. And extension, APC losing more the lead margin. Debit APC, Credit LP,


2. The Conjunctive Clause 'AND' FCT

Never in the history of Nigeria's checkered electoral history has AND assumed so much importance than now. English scholars, quasi-lawyers, and professional lawyers all however, seems to agree with the former Attorney General, Mr, Michael Aondoaka, that AND FCT is a conjunctive clause, implying obtaining 25% FCT votes is the NO 1 requirement of the election (in a manner of speaking). Incidentally, the APC candidate Mr. Bola A. Tinubu did not meet this basic constitutional requirement. It's an understatement to say that INEC hastily announced him winner, in the dead of the night, even before the first cock crow.

3. Electronic (Non) Transmission of result
It's not necessary to go into the nitty-gritty of the electoral law to determine whether transmission in Realtime is mandated by the law or not. What is important actually is what the electoral body established as part of the electoral guideline. Without gainsaying, the INEC Chairman severally announced, in different fora, that the result will be transmitted in Realtime from the polling station. This is the understanding of the candidates going into the election. Did INEC transmit the Presidential Result in Real Time as stipulated in their own guideline? NO. Clearly this is like a case of dribbling the candidates and electorates. INEC broke it's own rule. This is clearly a major reason for upturning the result as declared.

That said, what is expected of the three main candidates as this unfold?

First LP - Obi

Mr Obi will definately argue that he be declared winner of the election, based on number of votes cast, cos it's most likely the recomputed results will favour him

PDP

It's in the interest of the PDP to go for a re-run, as they might likely come second, when all the illegal votes might have been stripped from the APC candidate.

APC

APC will either push for total cancellation and fresh election, or argue for the court to overlook all those infraction, and continue with business as usual, as there is no precedence for upturning of a presidential election by the court in Nigeria. It is not clear which they will opt for.

Citizens

Waiting with bated breath,



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=43_mR6Z9-3w

Peter Obi is the winner of the election.
Tinubu is a usuper.

Tinubu will step down from that seat, it's not for him, it's either he willingly do it or he will bundled into a coffyn, intelligence report has it that they are planning something for him in edo

APC will not argue for election cancellation but they will insist that they won.By the time it get to that stage ,it will be to late for them to demand for the cancellation because that would not be in their initial submission.

LP on the other hand will need to prove that they got 25% in about 24 state which they are also claiming while trying to reduce the number of state where the APC got 25% so that it will be below 24.They are hoping to knock off APC is Lagos , plateau,Rivers ,Bayelsa ,Cross river ,and one or two state from the 25% criteria while laying claims of 25% in Ogun,Ekiti,Bauchi,Gombe,Adamawa,Borno etc.

PDP on the other hand will hope that LP does not get the required 25% in the required state .They have a strong believe that LP will reduce the vote declared for APC massively which will then make them the party with the required spread of 25% and more vote than APC even if LP has more vote than them.Ideally this scenario would have lead to a runoff election but supreme court can do magic.

Obi won and that's all that matters... The court will do the needful and announce Ellu P the winner

chivic:
APC will not argue for election cancellation but they will insist that they won.By the time it get to that stage ,it will be to late for them to demand for the cancellation because that would not be in their initial submission.

LP on the other hand will need to prove that they got 25% in about 24 state which they are also claiming while trying to reduce the number of state where the APC got 25% so that it will be below 24.They are hoping to knock off APC is Lagos , plateau,Rivers ,Bayelsa ,Cross river ,and one or two state from the 25% criteria while laying claims of 25% in Ogun,Ekiti,Bauchi,Gombe,Adamawa,Borno etc.

PDP on the other hand will hope that LP does not get the required 25% in the required state .They have a strong believe that LP will reduce the vote declared for APC massively which will then make them the party with the required spread of 25% and more vote than APC even if LP has more vote than them.Ideally this scenario would have lead to a runoff election but supreme court can do magic.

pdp also stole some lp votes

I AGREE AND MUST BE DONE BEFORE MAY SWEARING IN

Obi will win Atiku anyday anytime. Twice on Saturday. Thrice in May.

This is the best analysis of the issue at hand.

Good one @Op.

The commission’s patchy deployment of technology in the use of a Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) was still being intensely scrutinised and criticised.

INEC failed to adhere to its own statements and guidelines, which derive from its laws, that election results would be uploaded to its portal using the BVAS directly from the polling unit in real-time for the public’s viewing,” 

'Chatham House: Nigeria’s Presidential Election Not Conducted in Line with INEC’s Guidelines."
https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2023/03/08/chatham-house-nigerias-presidential-election-not-conducted-in-line-with-inecs-guidelines/

Point number-3 is the singular most important reason to me than any other one.See how the corrupt INEC chairman has ridiculed Nigeria before the world.

Ironically, the electronic transmission of election results and use of BVAS are same issues the APC( Ahmed Lawan, APC chair-Abdullahi Adamu) have been kicking against in a 21st century civilization.

Can't Nigerians see that anything APC is against improvement in our electioneering, democratic and constitutional processes? The frustration and fear are so real that the APC is shamelessly speaking and even turning INEC reassurance of the Nigerian on the same issue on it head.

The way urchins, miscreants and high graded mummified zombies defend idiocy is really appalling. I can't believe how on earth one ended up sharing nationality with these imbeciles.

APC will either push for total cancellation and fresh election, or argue for the court to overlook all those infraction, and continue with business as usual, as there is not precedence for upturning of a presidential election by the court in Nigeria. It is not clear what they will opt for.

A precedence will be set. Sane Nigerians fed up of the structures of corruption and criminality will make it happen.Helinues where are you?

chivic:
APC will not argue for election cancellation but they will insist that they won.By the time it get to that stage ,it will be to late for them to demand for the cancellation because that would not be in their initial submission.

LP on the other hand will need to prove that they got 25% in about 24 state which they are also claiming while trying to reduce the number of state where the APC got 25% so that it will be below 24.They are hoping to knock off APC is Lagos , plateau,Rivers ,Bayelsa ,Cross river ,and one or two state from the 25% criteria while laying claims of 25% in Ogun,Ekiti,Bauchi,Gombe,Adamawa,Borno etc.

PDP on the other hand will hope that LP does not get the required 25% in the required state .They have a strong believe that LP will reduce the vote declared for APC massively which will then make them the party with the required spread of 25% and more vote than APC even if LP has more vote than them.Ideally this scenario would have lead to a runoff election but supreme court can do magic.

Interesting times ahead.

Let me tell you guys one thing. In a one on one election between Tinubu and Obi. Tinubu will beat Obi black and blue.

You guys really underate the people that voted Tinubu because they are silent.

Atiku is the only candidate that can defeat Tinubu one on one.

PointB:
It's no news that INEC declared Mr. Bola A. Tinubu as the winner of the Feb' 25th elections. Sequel to that, some presidential aspirants have approached the court to examine sensitive material used in the election. This is a precursor to filing appeals for a redress. While we don't know exactly what the various party will be asking for, however based on several commentators on the matter, notably Former Attorney General, Mr, Michael Aondoaka, one can see the various possible angles for upturning the pronouncement of the INEC chairman.


1. Inconsistence in announced and transmitted results.

A notable inconsistence between belatedly transmitted and announced result was recently circulated online. It was the case of Obi Akpor LGA in River State, where LP were clearly short changed in favour of APC. As citizens statisticians continued to pore through results uploaded on the INEC IREV server, expect more of such inconsistences. The potential for this to reduce the number allocated to the supposed winner, while swelling the number of the supposed losers, is a very important result of this. Lagos, PH, Benue, Plateau, Akwa Ibom, are among states where the LP might garner more votes than currently announced for them. And extension, APC losing more the lead margin. Debit APC, Credit LP,


2. The Conjunctive Clause 'AND' FCT

Never in the history of Nigeria's checkered electoral history has AND assumed so much importance than now. English scholars, quasi-lawyers, and professional lawyers all however, seems to agree with the former Attorney General, Mr, Michael Aondoaka, that AND FCT is a conjunctive clause, implying obtaining 25% FCT votes is the NO 1 requirement of the election (in a manner of speaking). Incidentally, the APC candidate Mr. Bola A. Tinubu did not meet this basic constitutional requirement. It's an understatement to say that INEC hastily announced him winner, in the dead of the night, even before the first cock crow.

3. Electronic (Non) Transmission of result
It's not necessary to go into the nitty-gritty of the electoral law to determine whether transmission in Realtime is mandated by the law or not. What is important actually is what the electoral body established as part of the electoral guideline. Without gainsaying, the INEC Chairman severally announced, in different fora, that the result will be transmitted in Realtime from the polling station. This is the understanding of the candidates going into the election. Did INEC transmit the Presidential Result in Real Time as stipulated in their own guideline? NO. Clearly this is like a case of dribbling the candidates and electorates. INEC broke it's own rule. This is clearly a major reason for upturning the result as declared.

That said, what is expected of the three main candidates as this unfold?

First LP - Obi

Mr Obi will definately argue that he be declared winner of the election, based on number of votes cast, cos it's most likely the recomputed results will favour him

PDP

It's in the interest of the PDP to go for a re-run, as they might likely come second, when all the illegal votes might have been stripped from the APC candidate.

APC

APC will either push for total cancellation and fresh election, or argue for the court to overlook all those infraction, and continue with business as usual, as there is not precedence for upturning of a presidential election by the court in Nigeria. It is not clear what they will opt for.

Citizens

Waiting with bated breath,

Are the Nigerians in FCT , super Nigerians?

My thoughts too

colestephan86:

Are the Nigerians in FCT , super Nigerians?

Good question?

Tinubu can’t win in a free and fair election, and that election wasn’t free, people were stabbed in their faces, some were beaten and their phones collected, some were stoped from voting, some were forced to vote, even inec ad HOC staff were were intimidated either by money or anything or coerced in some locations all of these just to favor Apc

Despite these the people still voted omowale massively, then inevitable did her worse, stealing votes and giving it to apc , especially in Lagos and rivers I don’t know of the north, but rivers and lagos state results were heavily manipulated

Election wasn’t free inec wasn’t fair

Clowns

PointB:
It's no news that INEC declared Mr. Bola A. Tinubu as the winner of the Feb' 25th elections. Sequel to that, some presidential aspirants have approached the court to examine sensitive material used in the election. This is a precursor to filing appeals for a redress. While we don't know exactly what the various party will be asking for, however based on several commentators on the matter, notably Former Attorney General, Mr, Michael Aondoaka, one can see the various possible angles for upturning the pronouncement of the INEC chairman.


1. Inconsistence in announced and transmitted results.

A notable inconsistence between belatedly transmitted and announced result was recently circulated online. It was the case of Obi Akpor LGA in River State, where LP were clearly short changed in favour of APC. As citizens statisticians continued to pore through results uploaded on the INEC IREV server, expect more of such inconsistences. The potential for this to reduce the number allocated to the supposed winner, while swelling the number of the supposed losers, is a very important result of this. Lagos, PH, Benue, Plateau, Akwa Ibom, are among states where the LP might garner more votes than currently announced for them. And extension, APC losing more the lead margin. Debit APC, Credit LP,


2. The Conjunctive Clause 'AND' FCT

Never in the history of Nigeria's checkered electoral history has AND assumed so much importance than now. English scholars, quasi-lawyers, and professional lawyers all however, seems to agree with the former Attorney General, Mr, Michael Aondoaka, that AND FCT is a conjunctive clause, implying obtaining 25% FCT votes is the NO 1 requirement of the election (in a manner of speaking). Incidentally, the APC candidate Mr. Bola A. Tinubu did not meet this basic constitutional requirement. It's an understatement to say that INEC hastily announced him winner, in the dead of the night, even before the first cock crow.

3. Electronic (Non) Transmission of result
It's not necessary to go into the nitty-gritty of the electoral law to determine whether transmission in Realtime is mandated by the law or not. What is important actually is what the electoral body established as part of the electoral guideline. Without gainsaying, the INEC Chairman severally announced, in different fora, that the result will be transmitted in Realtime from the polling station. This is the understanding of the candidates going into the election. Did INEC transmit the Presidential Result in Real Time as stipulated in their own guideline? NO. Clearly this is like a case of dribbling the candidates and electorates. INEC broke it's own rule. This is clearly a major reason for upturning the result as declared.

That said, what is expected of the three main candidates as this unfold?

First LP - Obi

Mr Obi will definately argue that he be declared winner of the election, based on number of votes cast, cos it's most likely the recomputed results will favour him

PDP

It's in the interest of the PDP to go for a re-run, as they might likely come second, when all the illegal votes might have been stripped from the APC candidate.

APC

APC will either push for total cancellation and fresh election, or argue for the court to overlook all those infraction, and continue with business as usual, as there is not precedence for upturning of a presidential election by the court in Nigeria. It is not clear what they will opt for.

Citizens

Waiting with bated breath,

Nice analysis 👍

colestephan86:

Are the Nigerians in FCT , super Nigerians?

Yes. How many states can boast of having the same person as their President and Governor at the same time?

Nice one PointB.

We are waiting to see Supreme court judges who will try to ignore all these infractions and pretend they are not there. The world is watching them keenly. If they are there to rubber-stamp illegality we shall find out.

Tinubu knew he won't win on free and fair election. His only assurance was to bribe every obstacle on his way with his huge war chest.

PointB:
It's no news that INEC declared Mr. Bola A. Tinubu as the winner of the Feb' 25th elections. Sequel to that, some presidential aspirants have approached the court to examine sensitive material used in the election. This is a precursor to filing appeals for a redress. While we don't know exactly what the various party will be asking for, however based on several commentators on the matter, notably Former Attorney General, Mr, Michael Aondoaka, one can see the various possible angles for upturning the pronouncement of the INEC chairman.


1. Inconsistence in announced and transmitted results.

A notable inconsistence between belatedly transmitted and announced result was recently circulated online. It was the case of Obi Akpor LGA in River State, where LP were clearly short changed in favour of APC. As citizens statisticians continued to pore through results uploaded on the INEC IREV server, expect more of such inconsistences. The potential for this to reduce the number allocated to the supposed winner, while swelling the number of the supposed losers, is a very important result of this. Lagos, PH, Benue, Plateau, Akwa Ibom, are among states where the LP might garner more votes than currently announced for them. And extension, APC losing more the lead margin. Debit APC, Credit LP,


2. The Conjunctive Clause 'AND' FCT

Never in the history of Nigeria's checkered electoral history has AND assumed so much importance than now. English scholars, quasi-lawyers, and professional lawyers all however, seems to agree with the former Attorney General, Mr, Michael Aondoaka, that AND FCT is a conjunctive clause, implying obtaining 25% FCT votes is the NO 1 requirement of the election (in a manner of speaking). Incidentally, the APC candidate Mr. Bola A. Tinubu did not meet this basic constitutional requirement. It's an understatement to say that INEC hastily announced him winner, in the dead of the night, even before the first cock crow.

3. Electronic (Non) Transmission of result
It's not necessary to go into the nitty-gritty of the electoral law to determine whether transmission in Realtime is mandated by the law or not. What is important actually is what the electoral body established as part of the electoral guideline. Without gainsaying, the INEC Chairman severally announced, in different fora, that the result will be transmitted in Realtime from the polling station. This is the understanding of the candidates going into the election. Did INEC transmit the Presidential Result in Real Time as stipulated in their own guideline? NO. Clearly this is like a case of dribbling the candidates and electorates. INEC broke it's own rule. This is clearly a major reason for upturning the result as declared.

That said, what is expected of the three main candidates as this unfold?

First LP - Obi

Mr Obi will definately argue that he be declared winner of the election, based on number of votes cast, cos it's most likely the recomputed results will favour him

PDP

It's in the interest of the PDP to go for a re-run, as they might likely come second, when all the illegal votes might have been stripped from the APC candidate.

APC

APC will either push for total cancellation and fresh election, or argue for the court to overlook all those infraction, and continue with business as usual, as there is not precedence for upturning of a presidential election by the court in Nigeria. It is not clear what they will opt for.

Citizens

Waiting with bated breath,

Even if PO scores the highest number of votes cast, he WON'T be declared the winner cos he doesnt have the mandatory 25percent spread in atleast 24states.

My concern now is if eventually the court declare that inec erred In announcing the winner, who between AA and PO will contest the rerun.against BAT?

colestephan86:

Are the Nigerians in FCT , super Nigerians?

That is where the Electoral college votes situates.
Like in the USA

stonemasonn:
Let me tell you guys one thing. In a one on one election between Tinubu and Obi. Tinubu will beat Obi black and blue.

You guys really underate the people that voted Tinubu because they are silent.

Atiku is the only candidate that can defeat Tinubu one on one.

The only way baba Tinubu can beat Obi, is if money is allowed to be involved.


Tinubu is over rated by brother

Very good analysis.
My opinion is that the court (if they want to be even honest with the facts) might want to opt for a middle ground by cancelling the elections and order a fresh elections.
But whatever the judgement, that calamity called Buhari must not stay one day beyond his tenure.

stonemasonn:
Let me tell you guys one thing. In a one on one election between Tinubu and Obi. Tinubu will beat Obi black and blue.

You guys really underate the people that voted Tinubu because they are silent.

Atiku is the only candidate that can defeat Tinubu one on one.

This is not what is in contention here. Don't know why you guys like to create your own narrative and start running with it.

If Tinubu wins in a free and fair election nobody will contest it.

This is very clear analysis

chivic:
APC will not argue for election cancellation but they will insist that they won.By the time it get to that stage ,it will be to late for them to demand for the cancellation because that would not be in their initial submission.

LP on the other hand will need to prove that they got 25% in about 24 state which they are also claiming while trying to reduce the number of state where the APC got 25% so that it will be below 24.They are hoping to knock off APC is Lagos , plateau,Rivers ,Bayelsa ,Cross river ,and one or two state from the 25% criteria while laying claims of 25% in Ogun,Ekiti,Bauchi,Gombe,Adamawa,Borno etc.

PDP on the other hand will hope that LP does not get the required 25% in the required state .They have a strong believe that LP will reduce the vote declared for APC massively which will then make them the party with the required spread of 25% and more vote than APC even if LP has more vote than them.Ideally this scenario would have lead to a runoff election but supreme court can do magic.

You need to understand that PDP also rigged from LP in places where they are strong.

PDP took LP numbers in Taraba, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa and even Sokoto.

So, as LP is taking from APC’s numbers, they are also taking from PDP which in the end, if things go well, leave LP as the undisputed winnner.

So, LP is not in court against just APC but PDP as well.

The OP has good and logical points. But this is Nigeria.

yaki84:

Even if PO scores the highest number of votes cast, he WON'T be declared the winner cos he doesnt have the mandatory 25percent spread in atleast 24states.

My concern now is if eventually the court declare that inec erred In announcing the winner, who between AA and PO will contest the rerun.against BAT?

What made you so sure that BAT will make the Run-Off?

yaki84:

Even if PO scores the highest number of votes cast, he WON'T be declared the winner cos he doesnt have the mandatory 25percent spread in atleast 24states.

My concern now is if eventually the court declare that inec erred In announcing the winner, who between AA and PO will contest the rerun.against BAT?

If the results are re-tallied, Obi will win more states, and increase his spread. That's the point here.