We've been so tormented by the illogicality of "fuel subsidy" that we should now call for an end to the debate. Let the great economists, governors and technocrats, who alone can understand how the economy works, have their way this time round. They have been kind enough to put us on notice: from January 1, we shall start buying all petroleum products at the right prices. My own view is that the "subsidy" should be removed today; 2012 is too far away.

For a quarter of a century, all manner of people that have run Nigeria aground have overwhelmed us with this argument I consider very stupid. I remember that this "subsidy" has been removed at least twice in the past 25 years. According to the logic of these treasury looters in the NNPC and government houses, the government introduced a subsidy to enable Nigerians buy refined oil.

The same oil is originally extracted from under the Nigerian soil as crude, but the cost of buying the crude, refining it abroad (and sometimes at the local refineries) and importing it back is much higher than the pump price in Nigeria. In other words, a man owns a goat but he has to enjoy a subsidy before he can buy a plate of pepper-soup prepared with the goat's entrails. It's only in a country inhabited by bandits that this situation can exist. US secretary of state Hillary Clinton put it correctly some three years ago: "Nigeria has oil but imports oil. That's an example of bad governance."

Former petroleum ministers Muhammmadu Buhari and Tam David-West have pointed out that there is no subsidy on fuel. But this is something that common sense can explain. This country exports an average of 2.5 million barrels of crude every day. [I was told that up to 2 million barrels more are not accounted for; they are lost to bunkering, daily.] But it lacks the capacity to refine just a tiny fraction of that (40, 000 barrels) for local consumption.

All along, only foreigners and thieving Nigerians (who are awarded oil blocks and import fuel) have been benefitting from Nigeria's oil. Our "businessmen" importers have to go to other nations of the world to buy refined fuel and sell to Nigerians at "subsidised" prices. Four refineries set up in the country are constantly crippled so that the fuel importers can have a field day. And the cost of carrying out a TAM (turnaround maintenance) on any of the refineries is enough to set up two new refineries. Truly, Nigeria has great people in abundance: great mathematicians, great voodoo economists, and great crooks.

Nevertheless, I support the removal of "fuel subsidy" now because I have always believed in market forces - the law of supply and demand. Every evil policy contains the seed for its own destruction. I can predict what will follow a rise in the pump price of a litre of petrol from N65 to N200 from next year. That's what may trigger the long-expected people's revolution. Nigerians appear to have been docile because their oppressors have succeeded in sowing seeds of division among them. For reasons of tribe, religion, class or educational attainment, they don't see themselves as citizens of one nation. It's everyone for himself.

That's why they did not storm the National Assembly to chase out lawmakers paid N5 million as furniture allowance in 1999. And, when the people's "representatives" made a law to award to themselves incredible allowances in the name of constituency projects - each legislator gets N45-100 million every three months - nobody was queried by his constituents. Accordingly, armed robbers, pen robbers and thieves of every description now display their wealth openly as if telling their poorer compatriots, "Yes, I steal from you, but you can't do me anything."

What will unite the oppressed ordinary people is hunger or the threat of imminent death. Higher fuel prices will do just that. When the prices of food and transportation services rise beyond the reach of many, anarchy will set in. I foresee commuters refusing to pay their fares and fighting with drivers and conductors. I foresee hawkers at traffic hold-ups forcing motorists to buy their wares or smashing the windscreens of those that ignore them. Landlords will lose out - many tenants will refuse or will not be able to pay. Within these shores, stories of ministers assassinated by their bodyguards and governors poisoned by their cooks may become routine.

Restaurateurs will have a hard time: not every customer will pay after eating because "man must wack". Policemen, tax collectors and road marshals will be doing the most dangerous jobs: For starters, few will agree to be exploited by the FRSC that has asked car owners to pay N20, 000 to N30, 000 tax (for new number plate and licence) on each car by August 2012.

One other advantage of higher fuel prices will be the disappearance of traffic jams in cities like Abuja and Lagos. Many of us will be forced to abandon personal cars and trek or join public transportation. Exotic cars will almost completely disappear, because their owners will be hiding them in their garages for fear of being attacked by the hungry poor. Our taste for foreign goods will diminish - the purchasing power of 90 per cent of Nigerians will shrink as never before, ultimately forcing prices down. Then, finally, the unemployment rate will reach an all-time high. We haven't seen anything yet.

Soon, Boko Haram will acquire siblings: Petrol Haram, Jeep Haram, Aircraft Haram, Office Haram, Government Haram, Politics Haram and the like.

I used to think that Nigerian leaders were just selfish and greedy. Now I know they are also myopic and do not love their children and children's children. In which country do they think their children will live? Or will they live abroad forever? It will be dangerous for their children to live in the same country as Almajiri kids, Area Boys, Egbesu Boys, OPC and MASSOB members. What if criminal gangs start assassinating (not kidnapping) the children of the rich at airports, in hotel rooms and on the streets? Their fathers, who got rich by stealing public funds, would have lived for nothing. Happily, nobody transfers riches to the great beyond.

When we paint such pictures of the future, we try to make the managers of our resources think, and come to their senses. For, if history is any guide, there is a last day for corruption in every nation. Nigeria is rich enough to give Nigerians fuel at N1 per litre. By now, the white people should have left oil exploration and exploitation to Nigerians. But due to poor and visionless leadership, we have remained a nation of consumers, not producers.


Since 1986 that I started hearing the debate on the "removal of fuel subsidy", a serious country would have had 1, 986 refineries scattered all over its territory. But no. We have been more interested in talking - organising conferences and issuing communiqués that lead to nowhere. Nobody has thought of asking the white people to set up refineries as a condition for getting a licence to extract the crude. Yet, building refineries is not rocket science; the people of the south-east and south-south were building them more than 40 years ago. Who frustrated the Ajaokuta Steel Mill that has consumed trillions of naira? We still have to depend on other nations for all the equipment and facilities needed to set up a refinery. A nation that imports toothpicks, rice and cassava products cannot hope to manufacture a pin, much less a tank.

Total deregulation of the downstream sector (that is, higher fuel prices) from next year will mark the beginning of President Goodluck Jonathan's transformation agenda. There will be transformation indeed. And I wish him good luck. A civil conflict will follow, but it is not one to be led by the toothless bulldog called Nigeria Labour Congress. This is a good war that will end all wars on the Nigerian soil.

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