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Naira Under-valued In Official, Parallel Forex Markets – Bismarck Rewane - Business (4) - Nairaland

Nairaland Forum / Nairaland / General / Business / Naira Under-valued In Official, Parallel Forex Markets – Bismarck Rewane (19429 Views)

Exchange Rates In Official And Parallel Markets Converge / Bismarck Rewane: Naira Redesign May Cause GDP Fall But Not Increased Inflation / Bismarck Rewane Claims Naira Overvalued By 200%, Begs CBN To Set Currency Free (2) (3) (4)

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Re: Naira Under-valued In Official, Parallel Forex Markets – Bismarck Rewane by RepoMan007: 2:20am On Jan 18
On the way forward, he said that the government needs to focus on policy changes that will steer Nigeria towards economic resilience in 2024.

According to him, the imperative policy changes include debt rescheduling, increasing interest rates, a more efficient money supply, and an efficient foreign exchange market.

Others are cost-reflective electricity tariffs, reductions in petrol subsidy, and wage reviews.
This confused analyst has been consumed by textbook jargons.
The "way out list" happens to be missing the only sure way out which is local production that gradually substitutes imports and grows into export.

This same man said dollar should go for 640-680 under fair conditions before the imaginary floating of exchange rates. The emefiele they criticized with useless textbook jargons today, they can't deviate from his policies. The parallel and official rates still persist and differ by about N400.
They tried curbing spending to reduce inflation by owing workers and reducing cash in circulation.
They are trying to bypass dormant civil servants and reach wealth creators too with intervention funds just like emefiele did.
They will soon wake up and realize Brazilian hair and raw material for pharmaceuticals should never be contesting for forex at same price also. Maybe then they will swallow the humble pie and deny certain items on the forex list.
Why fund pilgrimage with scarce forex, thereby swelling the overall demand for it, and then turn around to say forex should cost less in principle?

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Re: Naira Under-valued In Official, Parallel Forex Markets – Bismarck Rewane by ChybuzzDD(m): 2:22am On Jan 18
FreeStuffsNG:
His words, “The naira is undervalued by 33.58 percent at the parallel market rate of N1,285 per dollar and 4.16 percent at the NAFEM rate of N890.54 percent.”


He shut down the opinion of some analysts that the country needs to spend less, arguing that what the nation needs to do is to spend efficiently and not less.

Brilliant economic analysis by Mr Bismarck Rewane that many will still fail or struggle to comprehend. Smh.

Keep your naira! Naira is currently undervalued. If you exchange your naira for a USD, you are actually exchanging your wealth for poverty by overpaying for the overvalued US dollar.

Expect a boon in the economy and a massive leap in our national aggregate output. Subsidy removal alone will fetch us about N4 Trillion while free float of the naira fetches Nigeria another N4 trillion, this total N8 trillion would have been converted to US dollars and exported overseas but for the brilliant and patriotic leadership of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
May God bless Nigeria for ever! Check my signature for free stuffs!

Didn't you do this same nonsense during the clueless Buhari's tenure and yet the country moved backwards??

By now, you should have learnt that propagandas don't work.

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Re: Naira Under-valued In Official, Parallel Forex Markets – Bismarck Rewane by ezegenigbonine: 2:34am On Jan 18
Tinubu will repair Nigeria like lagos grin grin grin grin grin
Re: Naira Under-valued In Official, Parallel Forex Markets – Bismarck Rewane by Bluffly: 2:37am On Jan 18
GboyegaD:
Can the government just allow the naira flow itself irrespective of the induatry and not try control the rate? Yes, naira will fall more however, it will help know its actual value and we can take it up from there.
Nothing flows itself in Nigeria. All indices are manipulated and manipulative in nature to suit the few.
Re: Naira Under-valued In Official, Parallel Forex Markets – Bismarck Rewane by Yashita: 3:57am On Jan 18
mrvitalis:
I don't know what metrics he is using but for me naira is over valued at 1300

If I were president I would devalue to #1700 then aggressively defend it there as I would have the liquidity to do so

Key thing is we need to identify key areas we have global comparative advantage.. ( what we can produce cheaper than most part of the world or what we have the potential to produce cheaper than most of the world) and heavily provide credit facility to this sectors

Driving export, increasing for example earnings

If we remove the subsidy on electricity and invest 700bn as loans to bank at 3% interest rate to be given to only players in the cassavacassava/ sweet potato to ethanol industry... I believe we can catapult that industry to a multi billion dollars industry creating millions of jobs and getting our investment in 10 years max

See, manufacturing machineries too. We have a good number of metal producing companies and plastic producing companies in Nigeria. Our engineers can design machineries and manufacture them to business needs.

We are not just thinking outside the box in this nation.

We can produce absolutely everything in Nigeria just like china is doing.

May God give us wisdom and brains 🧠 to use to our own effect.

Na everything we think we should import.
Re: Naira Under-valued In Official, Parallel Forex Markets – Bismarck Rewane by Tzar(m): 4:00am On Jan 18
No be this Bismark guy dey inside Aso Rock with Buhari for 8years advising him while he ruined the economy & polity for 8years?!
Re: Naira Under-valued In Official, Parallel Forex Markets – Bismarck Rewane by Konquest: 4:03am On Jan 18
Re: Naira Under-valued In Official, Parallel Forex Markets – Bismarck Rewane by MichaelSokoto(m): 4:39am On Jan 18
na statistics we go chop?

grin

Re: Naira Under-valued In Official, Parallel Forex Markets – Bismarck Rewane by todugo(m): 5:17am On Jan 18
RingRoadCartel:
What this APC guy does is.. he brings some potentially controversial threads here and makes sure to comment first in order to control the discourse. He's doing it before another person will do it so that people don't get to express their views freely without first corrupting them with his own.

Notice how he didn't mention where he got those stats he was just pulling out of his ass? Notice how he said that we will save trillions in naira, but declined to mention how his oga uses billions of our money to buy dollars that he will use in lodging in luxury hotels + other miscellaneous? Its only you and I that are told to make sacrifices, no part of Tinubus governments involvement in that sacrifice was mentioned.

When you see the way he throws around numbers, you'd think that that is actually how it'll play out. What Nigerians should understand is that spin doctors are just that. They're not economists. Their job is to control public perception. They know they're quoting jargons, but if you know the truth, they won't get paid. They get paid to convince you that you're privileged to suffer.
They use the blame game, inform of Gaslighting to convince gullible Nigerians that it's their fault; because they patronise foreign produce instead of Nigerian made goods. They also blame the youths for unemployement stating that it's their fault for being unemployed because they don't learn skills that the schools failed to teach them. They also blame Nigerians for insecurity, because they are not vigilant enough and don't report suspicious activities.They also blamed Nigerians for Poor Health sector stating that Nigerians don't take care of their health and by the time they come to the hospital its already too late.
Re: Naira Under-valued In Official, Parallel Forex Markets – Bismarck Rewane by Mansa6: 5:46am On Jan 18
hisexcellency34:
All these nonsense analysts. Buhari invited this man but he couldn't do anything. Tinubu has invited another analyst Tope Fasua but naira keeps falling
You want naira to just start gaining overnight in 7months

Are you mental

What do you produce as a nation

What is it that you don't practically import

70% of so called Igbo billionaires are importers...

How do you want a robust economy with that

You think this stuff started with Buhari or Obasanjo
Re: Naira Under-valued In Official, Parallel Forex Markets – Bismarck Rewane by yinkeys(m): 5:48am On Jan 18
Who wants to do business in a place ravished by insecurity
Why won’t shell contemplate selling all their onshore assets
Re: Naira Under-valued In Official, Parallel Forex Markets – Bismarck Rewane by Mansa6: 5:54am On Jan 18
salbis:
Make una continue to dey speak grammar while naira continue the free fall.

What do you produce as an individual that contributes to reduce our capital flight ultimately

99.98% of Nigerians are "docile" upstairs...spewing what they know nothing about...

Look around you and point to 10 items that are produced and exported in Nigeria and I will mention 100 items we import and use in this country..
Re: Naira Under-valued In Official, Parallel Forex Markets – Bismarck Rewane by Mansa6: 5:58am On Jan 18
omowolewa:
So what happened to forces of demand and supplies. If Government tries keep Exchange rate at a ceiling opportunist would take undue advantage of the window

Trade and Speculation drives the values. By trade, I will agree with Rwane but by speculations, I will not agree.

Average Nigerian want to save in foreign currencies, the rich has families abroad who would need forex soon. Your prove of fund is demanded in forex, so saving in Naira is not an option.

To improve Forex liquidity, FG kept borrowing but this got to wrong hands who either kept it safe in private vaults or ship it back to country of origin for save keep. This achieved no production or returns, we w
still have to pay with Naira. Kill corruption


We have booming music industry, how many musicians has our embassies got shows for.

We have countries exporting to Nigeria, how many have nigerian embassies in their countries of origin did convince to bring plants to Nigeria.

We flaring gas away, how best have we captured it and pipe it to African countries using under water pipeline.

Do you know how much Nigerian used to subscribe on Software, who has approached the big fintech to establish in Nigeria with little repatriation options but reinvestments.. Make business easier


#SavetheNGNfall

Shut up your ignorant mouth..

The average Nigerian makes less than 400 naira daily..where him wan see dollar buy to save

Just open your mouth dey yarn opata..

1 Like

Re: Naira Under-valued In Official, Parallel Forex Markets – Bismarck Rewane by 366bolutife: 6:19am On Jan 18
It is obvious you Exchanged your brain for ordinary agbadoIt is obvious you Exchanged your brain for ordinary agbado...
Re: Naira Under-valued In Official, Parallel Forex Markets – Bismarck Rewane by Gggjhhj: 6:44am On Jan 18
A dollar is 1341 against the naira, keep dishing out unnecessary statistics, thankGod na all of us go suffer
Re: Naira Under-valued In Official, Parallel Forex Markets – Bismarck Rewane by Kukutente23: 7:26am On Jan 18
LegendHero:


The excerpt from the link that claim some of the borrowers are not farmers is normal as with most loan disbursed by the Nigerian government and even private enterprise. That is not negating my fact here that genuine farmers also got the money.

Even for my MFB I co-own, you have people that genuinely come to us as traders who lie to borrow loan only to use the loan on something else. It is a Nigerian problem. Even with all the vetting, people will still go ahead and do them either ways.

Below screenshots are genuine farmers that got it from the premium times report.

That is the crux of our argument. Even within those links, you can see some genuine farmer still got it and some of them wasted it.

You are the one that initially came here to say genuine farmers only got 45k and what I simply asked is for you to provide evidence of that. You said you were with some farmers in Edozhigi Niger right? Can you provide the proof that they got 45k?

I am waiting.
The problem is that you're not listening. You're just mumbling words around.

When did I say genuine farmers did not get the loan? You're asking me to show you farmers that got 45k like I claimed and still claiming I said genuine farmers did not get the loan. Read what I wrote well.

Majority of the money did not get to genuine farmers

Go back and check that link. All those who claimed loans were disbursed to genuine farmers are members of RIFAN. Like I told you already. RIFAN is an APC support group that metamorphosed into rice farmers association. There was no RIFAN before APC came to power. Go and check it.

Most of those they gave loans to were not farmers and few that were genuine farmers got pittance.

The other group which are genuine farmers are the All Farmers Association of Nigeria (AFAN) which has existed for a long time. At least I got to know them in 2010 and they are organic not like RIFAN that's a political group.

For example, you can see one farmer under RIFAN claim his farm was washed away by floods and he was countered by the RIFAN official.

What I'm pointing out to you is that if APC was genuinely interested in empowering farmers, all they had to do was key into ATASP, a laudable program that already existed since 2013 with infrastructure and extension services in most rural areas. The phase 2 was supposed to start in 2018. APC govt should have simply pushed funds into the phase 2.

Instead, they went and started disbursing money through NIRSAL and RIFAN which are political groups and not into farming extension and integration. They turned it to a bonanza and that's why majority who took the loan refused to pay back, farmers or not while most farmers didn't even get the loan!!

I don't have any evidence to share with you. Maybe you want me to go and bring farmers on NL. If that makes you believe that the money was majorly shared to genuine farmers by RIFAN, that's your luck.

You're an APC goon who will always look to blame Nigerians for atrocities carried out by your party. So I'm not surprised.

But the fact remains if you read that premium times link with clear eyes, you'll see that I'm telling you the fact of how that money was mismanaged. It was designed to be mismanaged from the onset through NIRSAL and RIFAN.

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Re: Naira Under-valued In Official, Parallel Forex Markets – Bismarck Rewane by Anguldi(m): 8:03am On Jan 18
mrvitalis:
I don't know what metrics he is using but for me naira is over valued at 1300

If I were president I would devalue to #1700 then aggressively defend it there as I would have the liquidity to do so

Key thing is we need to identify key areas we have global comparative advantage.. ( what we can produce cheaper than most part of the world or what we have the potential to produce cheaper than most of the world) and heavily provide credit facility to this sectors

Driving export, increasing for example earnings

If we remove the subsidy on electricity and invest 700bn as loans to bank at 3% interest rate to be given to only players in the cassavacassava/ sweet potato to ethanol industry... I believe we can catapult that industry to a multi billion dollars industry creating millions of jobs and getting our investment in 10 years max

Una don come again. Bia, b kiaful sad angry
Re: Naira Under-valued In Official, Parallel Forex Markets – Bismarck Rewane by RealEzee(m): 8:11am On Jan 18
mrvitalis:
I don't know what metrics he is using but for me naira is over valued at 1300

If I were president I would devalue to #1700 then aggressively defend it there as I would have the liquidity to do so

Key thing is we need to identify key areas we have global comparative advantage.. ( what we can produce cheaper than most part of the world or what we have the potential to produce cheaper than most of the world) and heavily provide credit facility to this sectors

Driving export, increasing for example earnings

If we remove the subsidy on electricity and invest 700bn as loans to bank at 3% interest rate to be given to only players in the cassavacassava/ sweet potato to ethanol industry... I believe we can catapult that industry to a multi billion dollars industry creating millions of jobs and getting our investment in 10 years max
dis ya idea make sense,na one of ways to go wink
Re: Naira Under-valued In Official, Parallel Forex Markets – Bismarck Rewane by RealEzee(m): 8:16am On Jan 18
Mansa6:


What do you produce as an individual that contributes to reduce our capital flight ultimately

99.98% of Nigerians are "docile" upstairs...spewing what they know nothing about...

Look around you and point to 10 items that are produced and exported in Nigeria and I will mention 100 items we import and use in this country..
ur family na dem docile upstairs n downstairs
Re: Naira Under-valued In Official, Parallel Forex Markets – Bismarck Rewane by Artscollection: 8:46am On Jan 18
mrvitalis:


If you continue like this naira would get to #2500 before 2027

Currency is all about confidence, it really doesn't matter what you exchange at... Let just be stable

If I keep 50000 naira in a bank for 6 months and come back and it's worth 30000 naira worth of dollars... I would not want to save in naira again... I would look for dollars to save this drives deman in dollars which in turns makes the naira more unstable ... The circle keeps repeating itself


But if 50000 is worth 50000 with of dollars after 6 months... I can trust naira to save with it, which reduces the demand for dollars with stabilize the naira

So pick a point u can defend and defend it well for 18 months

There are variables that should be taken care of before a currency can be stable and find it's position so when we are ready, the naira will chill at it's spot.
Re: Naira Under-valued In Official, Parallel Forex Markets – Bismarck Rewane by mrvitalis(m): 8:55am On Jan 18
Artscollection:


There are variables that should be taken care of before a currency can be stable and find it's position so when we are ready, the naira will chill at it's spot.
Name them
Re: Naira Under-valued In Official, Parallel Forex Markets – Bismarck Rewane by Artscollection: 8:56am On Jan 18
mrvitalis:

America can print dollars because there is demand for it .... Naira is a secondary money to start with

You obviously don't know economics

We should throw away policies that made the biggest economies in the world

Theynever used such policies to grow their economy, there where no genuine demand, in most cases it was for debt services and i could remember when China followed up, the world where complaining about it.
The point is that our policy makers are daft, they should take decisions based on our local indices.
How can you remove subsidy n float the naira at the same time without adequate policies to counter the effects.
Re: Naira Under-valued In Official, Parallel Forex Markets – Bismarck Rewane by michoim(m): 8:58am On Jan 18
FreeStuffsNG:

Since you made it about your own view against his expert view with the @bolded, please which school of study did you attend? What did you study? What data do you have to counter the empirical and factual analysis by the renowned Economist, Mr Bismarck Rewane?

While it's not impossible to challenge the expert opinion of Rewane, It will be more rewarding to everyone reading your comment if you provide your own contrary views intellectually to counter him.
Nice one. You can say that again

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Re: Naira Under-valued In Official, Parallel Forex Markets – Bismarck Rewane by Artscollection: 9:03am On Jan 18
mrvitalis:

Name them

*Trade deficit should be taken care of
* they should kill corruption in that banking system and come up with adequate policies on how to manage of forex inflow n outflow.
These are 2 basics that covers alot of variables
Re: Naira Under-valued In Official, Parallel Forex Markets – Bismarck Rewane by ogawisdom(m): 9:10am On Jan 18
Artscollection:


Wait oo, after devaluing to 1700 then you will start defending it again sad what exactly will you be depending.

Don't mind the Agbado Economist grin grin
Re: Naira Under-valued In Official, Parallel Forex Markets – Bismarck Rewane by Artscollection: 9:13am On Jan 18
ogawisdom:


Don't mind the Agbado Economist grin grin

I tire oo, i was even shocked.
Re: Naira Under-valued In Official, Parallel Forex Markets – Bismarck Rewane by COMPAQ(m): 9:27am On Jan 18
mrvitalis:
I don't know what metrics he is using but for me naira is over valued at 1300

If I were president I would devalue to #1700 then aggressively defend it there as I would have the liquidity to do so

Key thing is we need to identify key areas we have global comparative advantage.. ( what we can produce cheaper than most part of the world or what we have the potential to produce cheaper than most of the world) and heavily provide credit facility to this sectors

Driving export, increasing for example earnings

If we remove the subsidy on electricity and invest 700bn as loans to bank at 3% interest rate to be given to only players in the cassavacassava/ sweet potato to ethanol industry... I believe we can catapult that industry to a multi billion dollars industry creating millions of jobs and getting our investment in 10 years max

Easier said than done. Your plan would unleash definite poverty and inflation in the country by way of increased price for petrol, diesel, electricity, medicines, food and everything else we import. However your plan to drive export is not guaranteed to succeed. So you would have given Nigerians 100% poverty, with 25% probability of success in your export drive.

Also you wrongly assume that the people you give 3% loans to will use it for the purpose given. You should know that Nigerians outside government are just as crafty as those in government.

If I receive N100mln at 3% to farm cassava that has some risk - the crop yield might not be as expected, there might be disease that ravages the crops, herdsmen could mutilate my farm etc. I might as well invest it in FGN bonds of 16% that have zero risk.

All in all, its very unlikely that the gains from just cassava/ethanol will make up for the poverty unleashed on Nigerian by $/NGN rate officially going to 1700!!

Overall, I agree with the principle that we need to identify key sectors of advantage for export focused industry. But your road map to getting there is where I have an issue.

For now what Nigeria needs is stability in the exchange rate. Not necessarily that it appreciates or depreciates. If there is the confidence that in 6months, 12 months, 24 months the rate wont be much more that 10% up or down in either direction, then we can slowly but surely build our economy back.
Re: Naira Under-valued In Official, Parallel Forex Markets – Bismarck Rewane by mrvitalis(m): 9:28am On Jan 18
Artscollection:


*Trade deficit should be taken care of
* they should kill corruption in that banking system and come up with adequate policies on how to manage of forex inflow n outflow.
These are 2 basics that covers alot of variables

Do you know how long it would take to balance trade deficit? ... What's your time estimate

And how exactly should we do you balance the trade

Kill corruption? Has any country done that before? And how exactly do you think this can be done

You people just make very vague statements that doesn't say anything really
Re: Naira Under-valued In Official, Parallel Forex Markets – Bismarck Rewane by mrvitalis(m): 9:40am On Jan 18
COMPAQ:


Easier said than done. Your plan would unleash definite poverty and inflation in the country by way of increased price for petrol, diesel, electricity, medicines, food and everything else we import. However your plan to drive export is not guaranteed to succeed. So you would have given Nigerians 100% poverty, with 25% probability of success in your export drive.

Also you wrongly assume that the people you give 3% loans to will use it for the purpose given. You should know that Nigerians outside government are just as crafty as those in government.

If I receive N100mln at 3% to farm cassava that has some risk - the crop yield might not be as expected, there might be disease that ravages the crops, herdsmen could mutilate my farm etc. I might as well invest it in FGN bonds of 16% that have zero risk.

All in all, its very unlikely that the gains from just cassava/ethanol will make up for the poverty unleashed on Nigerian by $/NGN rate officially going to 1700!!

Overall, I agree with the principle that we need to identify key sectors of advantage for export focused industry. But your road map to getting there is where I have an issue.
Good one

I believe it's better to try and fail than not to try at all, like it or not naira would still get to 1700 before this year ends the metrics is there... So the poverty and hardships you are avoiding would still come


Now the cassava is just off of many sectors that would be looked into I just used it as an example or sample

Loans would be given to banks with the agreement they only give it to the sectors we agreed as well as committing 20% of their profit to this sector... Part of the agreement would include fines for the banks if they default on this... And this fines would be so big it would not make them want to try rubbish

The cassava industry loans won't even go to farmers first, it would go to seedlings developers and ethanol production facilities owners

Once that is established they can then contract farmers to farm and supply them at a guaranteed minimum market price

U create the demands then supply

The ethanol companies would by the seedlings, give to farmers who have lands, to farm, give them fertilizers, rent out machinery to them, give them harvesters etc

But may require a minimum of 100 hectares, so people who don't have up to that would come together to form cooperatives

Cooperatives of 20,000 hectares and above can also apply for loans to build their own ethanol factory, must not just be ethanol might be glucose syrup
fructose syrup
gum,
cassava chips,
pharmaceutical grade starch etc

All this with the current exchange rate we can produce cheaper than world average

Same can be done to many industries
Re: Naira Under-valued In Official, Parallel Forex Markets – Bismarck Rewane by Mansa6: 9:48am On Jan 18
RealEzee:
ur family na dem docile upstairs n downstairs

Empty unintelligent urchin..

You keep proving how docile you are upstairs..
Re: Naira Under-valued In Official, Parallel Forex Markets – Bismarck Rewane by Mansa6: 9:50am On Jan 18
RealEzee:
My family na dem docile upstairs n downstairs pass sef..

As expected....

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