I believe the whole nation is bowled over at the growing popularity of the LP candidate HE Peter Obi. He was written off by political analysts earlier in the year when he joined LP on the basis that his party (LP) had no structure, but at the moment, he's arguably the most popular candidate in the election. The most talked about, the most criticized, the most hated, the most investigated...etc. Of all the candidates.

Obviously if he's opponents believed he lacked the political structure needed to win the election they wouldn't have given him kind of attention they're currently giving to him.

Social media activists like Reno has made attacking HE Peter Obi a full time job, his tweets about the LP presidential candidate comes in per minute, there are other candidates in other political parties without structure like LP, in fact a party like SDP in 2018 gave PDP and APC a run for their money in the gubernatorial election in Osun State, yet their presidential candidate despite having a visible structure in the SW isn't considered as a threat to the big wigs...this should tell you that LP has become the last beacon of hope for the average Nigerian.

Without wanting to waste your time...I decided to give a forecast of how 2023 elections would look like based on the past voting pattern in the 6 geopolitical zones across Nigeria. And why I believe HE Peter Obi can win.

The core North (NE and NW) since 2003 when Buhari started contesting has always displayed herd mentality towards elections. No Southern candidate has ever defeated a northerner in these two zones. So whoever is projecting any southerner (Tinubu or Peter Obi) to win there is just deceiving them cos I don't see 2023 being any different from past elections in those two zones...they would come out in Mass and vote their fellow northerner.

The NC is divided into two the Christian part and the Muslim part...the Christian section which consists of Nassarawa, Benue, Plateau, Abuja tend to tilt towards Southerners and in this case Peter Obi. A clear example was how Buhari lost Abuja to Jonathan in 2011, 2015 and to Atiku in 2019. I believe the reason is because there's a high population of enlightened people there who aren't part of the herd mentality of the core northerners.

This leaves us with the SE, this zone has been a traditional PDP zone, therefore despite being a southerner, Tinubu wouldn't win any local government here, Peter Obi is projected to get Bloc votes here. The SS voting pattern would be similar to that of the SE only that Atiku would perform better here...but I see it going to Peter Obi, possibly with a very close margin unlike the south east where he would most likely have bloc votes. Tinubu wouldn't win any single state in these two zones.

To the SW, here would really be a political battle ground. Osun and Oyo are PDP States. LP would perform poorly here except in Lagos. And Tinubu won't be getting bloc votes in Lagos despite the high turnout of new registered voters cos he'd have to struggle with LP and PDP for votes.

So in reality tinubu is most likely to win minimum of 5 states and maximum of 8 states... which most likely would be Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti, Ondo, Kogi, and Kwara... possible battle ground that might flip might be Oyo but he wouldn't win Osun State.

Peter Obi if the SS and Christian Bloc of the NC stands behind him should win about 15 states. 5 from the SE, 6 from the SS and 5 from the NC (including Abuja)

Atiku would want to pocket the 6 NE states and 7 NW states which should give him 13 northern States. If Kwankwaso intensifies his campaign and grabs like at least 3 NE states, Atiku's hold would reduce to about 10 states in the bag. This now leaves us with the NC which has 7 states. Of which Tinubu has already grabbed two (Kogi and Kwara) and Peter Obi 4 which are Benue, plateau Nassarawa and Abuja... Atiku would definitely win Niger state making his Total 11 and if you add Osun and Oyo it would be 13

So at the end of it all...

Peter Obi would have won 15 states

Atiku 12-13 States

Tinubu 6-7 States

Kwankwaso 3 States

If Peter Obi can concentrate his efforts on this zones where he's sure of winning it would be better for his campaign. He can't win the core North so he shouldn't wast his resources there, they don't vote Southerners and wouldn't change their mindset. He should solidify his hold on this zones that are winnable and enuse he doesn't loose them as the day goes by.

Source... myself.

In my opinion, Obi will win up to 18 states, including Abuja. Lagos will he tough for Tinubu next year. A lot of us who used to vote the apc have switched to Obi. I read of some guys here earlier this week who said they'd vote sanwoolu as governor and Obi as president. That's the way it will play out.

Who wan dash Tinubu Ondo? He stands a better chance in Osun but as it is, its not sure for him. Adeleke wouid rather declare the place for atiku. Oyo will declare for obi but retain Seyi as their governor. Seyi's recent body language was clear enough on Obi. Obi will get huge votes in Kaduna South and Central. Datti-Baba Ahmed would complement Obi's efforts in Kaduna North.

My concern is on Lagos cos thugs would be deployed by their paymaster to unleash mayhem at some selected locations. I've personslly written to INEC on this and I've gotten a reply. Deployment of military likely in those areas. Watch out!

Tinubu's Borno and Yobe votes will cancel whatever he didn't get from the South South.

He will have 25% from Delta State, Cross River State, Edo State, Rivers State , and Akwa Ibom State.

Obi cannot win 15 States in Nigeria

We're even asking if he will score 25% in 15 States.

You're so naive to believe your own hype.

Jf

Proclaim it in the East

Announce it in the West �

Broadcast it in the South

Confirm it in the North


Peter Gregory Obi is the next president of Nigeria by the special grace of God

N3TRAL:
Tinubu's Borno and Yobe votes will cancel whatever he didn't get from the South South.

He will have 25% from Delta State, Cross River State, Edo State, Rivers State , and Akwa Ibom State.

I stopped reading whatever the Op was saying when i got to this:

"The NC is divided into two the Christian part and the Muslim part...the Christian section which consists of Nassarawa, Benue, Plateau, Abuja tend to tilt towards Southerners and that is obi"


It is so funny when people who havent been to the north, will just sit and start analysing according to what they wish or what they heard. Imagine someone calling Abuja and Nasawarawa state christians sections. Lol.


Let me just analyse nasarawa electoral strategy a little.

Nasarawa voters are dominated by majorly fulani and mostly ebira the ones from Nasarawa toto, and egon. This are core voters, when i mean core, like they take election period so serious and sacred. They dont joke with it...

I can bet any amount that in nasarawa, kogi and abj.. The three northcentral states that obi wont have a total of 20,000 votes combine.

I have been saying this and i am repeating it... When i see obi supporters mentioning northcentral like it is some kinda walkover state. I just laugh. Some of them havent even been there before. They dont even know the states that makes up the North-central. They just follow what they heard on social media and start concluding. Very funny.

I voted in Nasarawa 2019, i left kd to vote there. I voted for Atiku/obi but APC won the state massively during the presidential election. Infact the present governor, A.A sule even stated that the outcome of the presidential election was what gave him his victory one week later against the PDP candidate, Ombagidibo.

Everyone is free yo dream... Your candidate will come a distant third.

Probably

Nazgul:
I believe the whole nation is bowled over at the growing popularity of the LP candidate HE Peter Obi. He was written off by political analysts earlier in the year when he joined LP on the basis that his party (LP) had no structure, but at the moment, he's arguably the most popular candidate in the election. The most talked about, the most criticized, the most hated, the most investigated...etc. Of all the candidates.

Obviously if he's opponents believed he lacked the political structure needed to win the election they wouldn't have given him kind of attention they're currently giving to him.

Social media activists like Reno has made attacking HE Peter Obi a full time job, his tweets about the LP presidential candidate comes in per minute, there are other candidates in other political parties without structure like LP, in fact a party like SDP in 2018 gave PDP and APC a run for their money in the gubernatorial election in Osun State, yet their presidential candidate despite having a visible structure in the SW isn't considered as a threat to the big wings...this should tell you that LP has become the last beacon of hope for the average Nigerian.

Without wanting to waste your time...I decided to give a forecast of how 2023 elections would look like based on the past voting pattern in the 6 geopolitical zones across Nigeria. And why I believe HE Peter Obi can win.

The core North (NE and NW) since 2003 when Buhari started contesting has always displayed herd mentality towards elections. No Southern candidate has ever defeated a northerner in these two zones. So whoever is projecting any southerner (Tinubu or Peter Obi) to win there is just deceiving them cos I don't see 2023 being any different from past elections in those two zones...they would come out in Mass and vote their fellow northerner.

The NC is divided into two the Christian part and the Muslim part...the Christian section which consists of Nassarawa, Benue, Plateau, Abuja tend to tilt towards Southerners and in this case Peter Obi. A clear example was how Buhari lost Abuja to Jonathan in 2011, 2015 and to Atiku in 2019. I believe the reason is because there's a high population of enlightened people there who aren't part of the herd mentality of the core northerners.

This leaves us with the SE, this zone has been a traditional PDP zone, therefore despite being a southerner, Tinubu wouldn't win any local government here, Peter Obi is projected to get Bloc votes here. The SS voting pattern would be similar to that of the SE only that Atiku would perform better here...but I see it going to Peter Obi, possibly with a very close margin unlike the south east where he would most likely have bloc votes. Tinubu wouldn't win any single state in these two zones.

To the SW, here would really be a political battle ground. Osun and Oyo are PDP States. LP would perform poorly here except in Lagos. And Tinubu won't be getting bloc votes in Lagos despite the high turnout of new registered voters cos he'd have to struggle with LP and PDP for votes.

So in reality tinubu is most likely to win minimum of 5 states and maximum of 8 states... which most likely would be Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti, Ondo, Kogi, and Kwara... possible battle ground that might flip might be Oyo but he wouldn't win Osun State.

Peter Obi if the SS and Christian Bloc of the NC stands behind him should win about 15 states. 5 from the SE, 6 from the SS and 5 from the NC (including Abuja)

Atiku would want to pocket the 6 NE states and 7 NW states which should give him 13 northern States. If Kwankwaso intensifies his campaign and grabs like at least 3 NE states, Atiku's hold would reduce to about 10 states in the bag. This now leaves us with the NC which has 7 states. Of which Tinubu has already grabbed two (Kogi and Kwara) and Peter Obi 4 which are Benue, plateau Nassarawa and Abuja... Atiku would definitely win Niger state making his Total 11.

So at the end of it all...

Peter Obi would have won 15 states

Atiku 11 States

Tinubu 6-7 States

Kwankwaso 3 States

If Peter Obi can concentrate his efforts on this zones where he's sure of winning it would be better for his campaign. He can't win the core North so he shouldn't wast his resources there, they don't vote Southerners and wouldn't change their mindset. He should solidify his hold on this zones that are winnable and enuse he doesn't loose them as the day goes by.

Source... myself.

Cc... nlfpmod mynd44 lalasticalala Dominique Seun.

Kai Nyamiri, when will you ever learn Politics Obi will win 15 states, Tinubu 6-7, Atiku 11....etc �

Wake up Man, it's either you r drunk of high on Mkpurumiri.. �

I tell you the best Obi will poll is 3rd position... Let's bet if u r so sure...

I believe so too, the only thing now is for God to strengthen him because "the political bigwigs" aside Baba Iyabo have some issues with him. They've vowed not to let him sit on that seat. But like I earlier said God (using the electorates) is the one that has the FINAL say Proverbs 19:21 and Psalm 22:28.

N3TRAL:
Tinubu's Borno and Yobe votes will cancel whatever he didn't get from the South South.

He will have 25% from Delta State, Cross River State, Edo State, Rivers State , and Akwa Ibom State.

Obi cannot win 15 States in Nigeria

We're even asking if he will score 25% in 15 States.

You're so naive to believe your own hype.

You'd be shocked that those two states would go for their fellow northerner. No southern candidate has ever won there since 2003. I don't see it changing next year.

You're valid.

May better candidate win IjN

Eriokanmi:
In my opinion, Obi will win up to 18 states, including Abuja. Lagos will he tough for Tinubu next year. A lot of us who used to vote the apc have switched to Obi. I read of some guys here earlier this week who said they'd vote sanwoolu as governor and Obi as president. That's the way it will play out.

Who wan dash Tinubu Ondo? He stands a better chance in Osun but as it is, its not sure for him. Adeleke wouid rather declare the place for atiku. Oyo will declare for obi but retain Seyi as their governor. Seyi's recent body language was clear enough on Obi. Obi will get huge votes in Kaduna South and Central. Datti-Baba Ahmed would complement Obi's efforts in Kaduna North.

My concern is on Lagos cos thugs would be deployed by their paymaster to unleash mayhem at some selected locations. I've personslly written to INEC on this and I've gotten a reply. Deployment of military likely in those areas. Watch out!

Oyo for obi.? Like seriously.

Why do you guys do this? I think you guys just always do this on purpose or maybe you are just living in denial.

Oyo for obi? Lol. The funniest thing have heard today.

Have you been to oyo before? I dont even think so... You just come on social space and start saying unrealistic things.

Though I don't totally concur with you, I feel you might be slightly right.

But the very funny thing is that a particular set of people who are fully supporting their son think that northers will leave two of their own and support their son just because of political structure.
Indeed this coming election will shock many people.

Nazgul:

You'd be shocked that those two states would go for their fellow northerner. No southern candidate has ever won there since 2003. I don't see it changing next year.

Shettima is Kanuri. Those States are predominantly Kanuri.

They also have APC Governors and Senators from top to bottom.

The bulk of Northern APC Governors are also APC.

Check out the APC primaries, Tinubu came first, Amaechi 2nd and Osinbajo 3. The total votes given to these southern candidates by delegates if calculated will show you that 85% of Northern delegates voted for a southern presidential candidate.

Buhari is to the North what Peter Obi is to the South East. The elections in the North has always been that way because he's in the ballot.

Buhari is the head of Tinubu's campaign team. It means he will go to his people in Katsina, Zamfara in rallies that will fill stadia and tell them to vote for Tinubu.

With the structures of APC in this place and APC legislators in place whose elections will be on the same day as presidential election, the worst possible outcome Tinubu can get from the North is 40-45% of 100% of votes cast.

lhordspy:



Oyo for obi.? Like seriously.

Why do you guys do this? I think you guys just always do this on purpose or maybe you are just living in denial.

Oyo for obi? Lol. The funniest thing have heard today.

Have you been to oyo before? I dont even think so... You just come on social space and start saying unrealistic things.

Makinde is afraid.


Seyi Makinde may not even return as Oyo State Governor.

N3TRAL:



Shettima is Kanuri. Those States are predominantly Kanuri.

They also have APC Governors and Senators from top to bottom.

The bulk of Northern APC Governors are also APC.

Check out the APC primaries, Tinubu came first, Amaechi 2nd and Osinbajo 3. The total votes given to these southern candidates by delegates if calculated will show you that 85% of Northern delegates voted for a southern presidential candidate.

Buhari is to the North what Peter Obi is to the South East. The elections in the North has always been that way because he's in the ballot.

Buhari is the head of Tinubu's campaign team. It means he will go to his people in Katsina, Zamfara in rallies that will fill stadia and tell them to vote for Tinubu.

With the structures of APC in this place and APC legislators in place whose elections will be on the same day as presidential election, the worst possible outcome Tinubu can get from the North is 40-45% of 100% of votes cast.

They're campaigning with Atiku's image for presidency then their APC senators, governors...etc. The pictures are everywhere.

They would maintain their APC structure for other positions but vote Atiku for president, that's how these guys vote..

N3TRAL:
Tinubu's Borno and Yobe votes will cancel whatever he didn't get from the South South.

He will have 25% from Delta State, Cross River State, Edo State, Rivers State , and Akwa Ibom State.

Obi cannot win 15 States in Nigeria

We're even asking if he will score 25% in 15 States.

You're so naive to believe your own hype.

You get time to dey engage this people,you for just tell them say Obi go win all the 36 and FCT.

Nazgul:

They're campaigning with Atiku's image for presidency then their APC senators, governors...etc. The pictures are everywhere.

They would maintain their APC structure for other positions but vote Atiku for president, that's how these guys vote..

Women in politics

You're so naive. Bye

N3TRAL:


Women in politics

You're so naive. Bye

Lol...you've got nothing logical to say...hence your cheap attempt to sound sarcastic. Don't worry I'll quote you here after the elections.

If you think a northerner would vote a southerner so that a northerner would become vice president you'd better wake up from your dream.

Kwankwaso said something I'll never forget, he said the noth wants a northerner to succeed Buhari, this is one of the reasons he refused to deputize Peter Obi even though he knew it would have increased his chances of winning.

Whatever made Kwankwaso believe that becoming a vice president candidate to Peter Obi is worse than not contesting at all should give you a clue of how the core northerners view us down South.

N3TRAL:


Makinde is afraid.

Ask them to just Google and see how many governors have won second term bid in Oyo.

Seyi Makinde may not even return as Oyo State Governor.

It is not about even how many Governor's had won a second term bid... It is about if he has the political might to pull it off himself.

The first election he won was influenced by several factors which are infighting within the APC ranks in Oyo states, luck and miracle. Coupled with the fact that the APC political bigwigs in south-west especially Tinubu had alot in their hand as at the time and were probably caught unaware by the defeat.

Run-up to the Election, Tinubu was fighting Ambode and having to push the governorship bid of Sanwo olu as a not-too popular politician to the people of lagos state. Everybody where busy with one thing or the other they probably neglected oyo state APC when it comes to support.

This time around, it is different.. Tinubu cant afford to joke with south-west votes, infact he cant afford to lose any state over there. Reason why you see seyi makinde jitterying all over, he might eventually strike a deal with Tinubu lastly.

Obi is our incoming President
Next

Nazgul:

Lol...you've got nothing logical to say...hence your cheap attempt to sound sarcastic. Don't worry I'll quote you here after the elections.

If you think a northerner would vote a southerner so that a northerner would become vice president you'd better wake up from your dream.

Kwankwaso said something I'll never forget, he said the noth wants a northerner to succeed Buhari, this is one of the reasons he refused to deputize Peter Obi even though he knew it would have increased his chances of winning.

Whatever made Kwankwaso believe that becoming a vice president candidate to Peter Obi is worse than not contesting at all should give you a clue of how the core northerners view us down South.

Lol. Kwankwaso also said if he were to step down, it would be for Tinubu.

Kwankwaso is building his own organic movement for 2031 when it will be the Northerners turn to return to power.

Based on party politics, Kwankwaso knows he won't get an APC or PDP ticket in 2031, so he's building his movement that will make him stand a chance when it is time for power to return to the North.

Kwankwaso's problem with Obi isn't because he's from the South. It's because he's Igbo. No northerner can vote for an Igbo man from South East as it stands.

So Kwankwaso would not stain his reputation in the North.

I believe the op, Obi will shock them

lhordspy:



Oyo for obi.? Like seriously.

Why do you guys do this? I think you guys just always do this on purpose or maybe you are just living in denial.

Oyo for obi? Lol. The funniest thing have heard today.

Have you been to oyo before? I dont even think so... You just come on social space and start saying unrealistic things.

It's opinion-based. Say yours let's see. Thank goodness you didn't rain insults this night. I appreciate that.

Not only have I been to oyo before, I once lived there. 2 of my siblings are settled in oke Ado and ring road in ibadan.

Lol reading his nonsense epistle gave me head ache!! These fools will go to social media and come back and dashing out figures and state! I wanted to reply him but I had no moral and video because the foolishness he wrote

The fool even put nasarawa staste in PO bag!

So Yoruba in Osun and Oyo will leave their son and vote PO, can u imagine! PO will clear SE but Tinubu will struggle in SW! Omo this rally has really deceived a lot of ppl

He even said the north has never voted a southern, the fool has forgotten about Abiola

Borno and Yobe alone will cancel whatever PO gets in SS

N3TRAL:
Tinubu's Borno and Yobe votes will cancel whatever he didn't get from the South South.

He will have 25% from Delta State, Cross River State, Edo State, Rivers State , and Akwa Ibom State.

Obi cannot win 15 States in Nigeria

We're even asking if he will score 25% in 15 States.

You're so naive to believe your own hype.

No be so comrade, election is the more you see the less you know

lhordspy:


I stopped reading whatever the Op was saying when i got to this:

"The NC is divided into two the Christian part and the Muslim part...the Christian section which consists of Nassarawa, Benue, Plateau, Abuja tend to tilt towards Southerners and that is obi"


It is so funny when people who havent been to the north, will just sit and start analysing according to what they wish or what they heard. Imagine someone calling Abuja and Nasawarawa state christians sections. Lol.


Let me just analyse nasarawa electoral strategy a little.

Nasarawa voters are dominated by majorly fulani and mostly ebira the ones from Nasarawa toto, and egon. This are core voters, when i mean core, like they take election period so serious and sacred. They dont joke with it...

I can bet any amount that in nasarawa, kogi and abj.. The three northcentral states that obi wont have a total of 20,000 votes combine.

I have been saying this and i am repeating it... When i see obi supporters mentioning northcentral like it is some kinda walkover state. I just laugh. Some of them havent even been there before. They dont even know the states that makes up the North-central. They just follow what they heard on social media and start concluding. Very funny.

I voted in Nasarawa 2019, i left kd to vote there. I voted for Atiku/obi but APC won the state massively during the presidential election. Infact the present governor, A.A sule even stated that the outcome of the presidential election was what gave him his victory one week later against the PDP candidate, Ombagidibo.

From your analysis you're the one exhibiting naivety here, how can you associate voting of nasarawa with the fulanis instead of egons

Op is high on Obi urine or maybe kanu sh1t


Who go dash Obi 15 states? If Obi win 2 states make Inec declare the fraud winner of the election.


Bunch of clowns.