lhordspy:


It is not about even how many Governor's had won a second term bid... It is about if he has the political might to pull it off himself.

The first election he won was influenced by several factors which are infighting within the APC ranks in Oyo states, luck and miracle. Coupled with the fact that the APC political bigwigs in south-west especially Tinubu had alot in their hand as at the time and were probably caught unaware by the defeat.

Run-up to the Election, Tinubu was fighting Ambode and having to push the governorship bid of Sanwo olu as a not-too popular politician to the people of lagos state. Everybody where busy with one thing or the other they probably neglected oyo state APC when it comes to support.

This time around, it is different.. Tinubu cant afford to joke with south-west votes, infact he cant afford to lose any state over there. Reason why you see seyi makinde jitterying all over, he might eventually strike a deal with Tinubu lastly.

Kingof2nations:



From your analysis you're the one exhibiting naivety here, how can you associate voting of nasarawa with the fulanis instead of egons

Nyamuri:
Lol reading his nonsense epistle gave me head ache!! These fools will go to social media and come back and dashing out figures and state! I wanted to reply him but I had no moral and video because the foolishness he wrote

The fool even put nasarawa staste in PO bag!

So Yoruba in Osun and Oyo will leave their son and vote PO, can u imagine! PO will clear SE but Tinubu will struggle in SW! Omo this rally has really deceived a lot of ppl

He even said the north has never voted a southern, the fool has forgotten about Abiola

Borno and Yobe alone will cancel whatever PO gets in SS

Nazgul:
I believe the whole nation is bowled over at the growing popularity of the LP candidate HE Peter Obi. He was written off by political analysts earlier in the year when he joined LP on the basis that his party (LP) had no structure, but at the moment, he's arguably the most popular candidate in the election. The most talked about, the most criticized, the most hated, the most investigated...etc. Of all the candidates.

Obviously if he's opponents believed he lacked the political structure needed to win the election they wouldn't have given him kind of attention they're currently giving to him.

Social media activists like Reno has made attacking HE Peter Obi a full time job, his tweets about the LP presidential candidate comes in per minute, there are other candidates in other political parties without structure like LP, in fact a party like SDP in 2018 gave PDP and APC a run for their money in the gubernatorial election in Osun State, yet their presidential candidate despite having a visible structure in the SW isn't considered as a threat to the big wigs...this should tell you that LP has become the last beacon of hope for the average Nigerian.

Without wanting to waste your time...I decided to give a forecast of how 2023 elections would look like based on the past voting pattern in the 6 geopolitical zones across Nigeria. And why I believe HE Peter Obi can win.

The core North (NE and NW) since 2003 when Buhari started contesting has always displayed herd mentality towards elections. No Southern candidate has ever defeated a northerner in these two zones. So whoever is projecting any southerner (Tinubu or Peter Obi) to win there is just deceiving them cos I don't see 2023 being any different from past elections in those two zones...they would come out in Mass and vote their fellow northerner.

The NC is divided into two the Christian part and the Muslim part...the Christian section which consists of Nassarawa, Benue, Plateau, Abuja tend to tilt towards Southerners and in this case Peter Obi. A clear example was how Buhari lost Abuja to Jonathan in 2011, 2015 and to Atiku in 2019. I believe the reason is because there's a high population of enlightened people there who aren't part of the herd mentality of the core northerners.

This leaves us with the SE, this zone has been a traditional PDP zone, therefore despite being a southerner, Tinubu wouldn't win any local government here, Peter Obi is projected to get Bloc votes here. The SS voting pattern would be similar to that of the SE only that Atiku would perform better here...but I see it going to Peter Obi, possibly with a very close margin unlike the south east where he would most likely have bloc votes. Tinubu wouldn't win any single state in these two zones.

To the SW, here would really be a political battle ground. Osun and Oyo are PDP States. LP would perform poorly here except in Lagos. And Tinubu won't be getting bloc votes in Lagos despite the high turnout of new registered voters cos he'd have to struggle with LP and PDP for votes.

So in reality tinubu is most likely to win minimum of 5 states and maximum of 8 states... which most likely would be Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti, Ondo, Kogi, and Kwara... possible battle ground that might flip might be Oyo but he wouldn't win Osun State.

Peter Obi if the SS and Christian Bloc of the NC stands behind him should win about 15 states. 5 from the SE, 6 from the SS and 5 from the NC (including Abuja)

Atiku would want to pocket the 6 NE states and 7 NW states which should give him 13 northern States. If Kwankwaso intensifies his campaign and grabs like at least 3 NE states, Atiku's hold would reduce to about 10 states in the bag. This now leaves us with the NC which has 7 states. Of which Tinubu has already grabbed two (Kogi and Kwara) and Peter Obi 4 which are Benue, plateau Nassarawa and Abuja... Atiku would definitely win Niger state making his Total 11 and if you add Osun and Oyo it would be 13

So at the end of it all...

Peter Obi would have won 15 states

Atiku 12-13 States

Tinubu 6-7 States

Kwankwaso 3 States

If Peter Obi can concentrate his efforts on this zones where he's sure of winning it would be better for his campaign. He can't win the core North so he shouldn't wast his resources there, they don't vote Southerners and wouldn't change their mindset. He should solidify his hold on this zones that are winnable and enuse he doesn't loose them as the day goes by.

Source... myself.

N3TRAL:


Lol. These people think Northerners will betray Tinubu.

The Northerners do not break their vow. What happened in PDP was that there was never a promise.

The Northerners in PDP came up with the opinion that the Presidency should be zoned to the South East and no Northerner will contest. They gave this condition because they knew South South governors will never agree to it. Of course the South South governors who wanted to give their shot at Presidency said no.

Zoning was discarded before the primary elections of PDP.

The Northerners who gave Tinubu the ticket will stand by him. They will deliver their states to the best of their ability for Tinubu.

Eriokanmi:
In my opinion, Obi will win up to 18 states, including Abuja. Lagos will he tough for Tinubu next year. A lot of us who used to vote the apc have switched to Obi. I read of some guys here earlier this week who said they'd vote sanwoolu as governor and Obi as president. That's the way it will play out.

Who wan dash Tinubu Ondo? He stands a better chance in Osun but as it is, its not sure for him. Adeleke wouid rather declare the place for atiku. Oyo will declare for obi but retain Seyi as their governor. Seyi's recent body language was clear enough on Obi. Obi will get huge votes in Kaduna South and Central. Datti-Baba Ahmed would complement Obi's efforts in Kaduna North.

My concern is on Lagos cos thugs would be deployed by their paymaster to unleash mayhem at some selected locations. I've personslly written to INEC on this and I've gotten a reply. Deployment of military likely in those areas. Watch out!

Nazgul:
I believe the whole nation is bowled over at the growing popularity of the LP candidate HE Peter Obi. He was written off by political analysts earlier in the year when he joined LP on the basis that his party (LP) had no structure, but at the moment, he's arguably the most popular candidate in the election. The most talked about, the most criticized, the most hated, the most investigated...etc. Of all the candidates.

Obviously if he's opponents believed he lacked the political structure needed to win the election they wouldn't have given him kind of attention they're currently giving to him.

Social media activists like Reno has made attacking HE Peter Obi a full time job, his tweets about the LP presidential candidate comes in per minute, there are other candidates in other political parties without structure like LP, in fact a party like SDP in 2018 gave PDP and APC a run for their money in the gubernatorial election in Osun State, yet their presidential candidate despite having a visible structure in the SW isn't considered as a threat to the big wigs...this should tell you that LP has become the last beacon of hope for the average Nigerian.

Without wanting to waste your time...I decided to give a forecast of how 2023 elections would look like based on the past voting pattern in the 6 geopolitical zones across Nigeria. And why I believe HE Peter Obi can win.

The core North (NE and NW) since 2003 when Buhari started contesting has always displayed herd mentality towards elections. No Southern candidate has ever defeated a northerner in these two zones. So whoever is projecting any southerner (Tinubu or Peter Obi) to win there is just deceiving them cos I don't see 2023 being any different from past elections in those two zones...they would come out in Mass and vote their fellow northerner.

The NC is divided into two the Christian part and the Muslim part...the Christian section which consists of Nassarawa, Benue, Plateau, Abuja tend to tilt towards Southerners and in this case Peter Obi. A clear example was how Buhari lost Abuja to Jonathan in 2011, 2015 and to Atiku in 2019. I believe the reason is because there's a high population of enlightened people there who aren't part of the herd mentality of the core northerners.

This leaves us with the SE, this zone has been a traditional PDP zone, therefore despite being a southerner, Tinubu wouldn't win any local government here, Peter Obi is projected to get Bloc votes here. The SS voting pattern would be similar to that of the SE only that Atiku would perform better here...but I see it going to Peter Obi, possibly with a very close margin unlike the south east where he would most likely have bloc votes. Tinubu wouldn't win any single state in these two zones.

To the SW, here would really be a political battle ground. Osun and Oyo are PDP States. LP would perform poorly here except in Lagos. And Tinubu won't be getting bloc votes in Lagos despite the high turnout of new registered voters cos he'd have to struggle with LP and PDP for votes.

So in reality tinubu is most likely to win minimum of 5 states and maximum of 8 states... which most likely would be Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti, Ondo, Kogi, and Kwara... possible battle ground that might flip might be Oyo but he wouldn't win Osun State.

Peter Obi if the SS and Christian Bloc of the NC stands behind him should win about 15 states. 5 from the SE, 6 from the SS and 5 from the NC (including Abuja)

Atiku would want to pocket the 6 NE states and 7 NW states which should give him 13 northern States. If Kwankwaso intensifies his campaign and grabs like at least 3 NE states, Atiku's hold would reduce to about 10 states in the bag. This now leaves us with the NC which has 7 states. Of which Tinubu has already grabbed two (Kogi and Kwara) and Peter Obi 4 which are Benue, plateau Nassarawa and Abuja... Atiku would definitely win Niger state making his Total 11 and if you add Osun and Oyo it would be 13

So at the end of it all...

Peter Obi would have won 15 states

Atiku 12-13 States

Tinubu 6-7 States

Kwankwaso 3 States

If Peter Obi can concentrate his efforts on this zones where he's sure of winning it would be better for his campaign. He can't win the core North so he shouldn't wast his resources there, they don't vote Southerners and wouldn't change their mindset. He should solidify his hold on this zones that are winnable and enuse he doesn't loose them as the day goes by.

Source... myself.

N3TRAL:
Tinubu's Borno and Yobe votes will cancel whatever he didn't get from the South South.

He will have 25% from Delta State, Cross River State, Edo State, Rivers State , and Akwa Ibom State.

Obi cannot win 15 States in Nigeria

We're even asking if he will score 25% in 15 States.

You're so naive to believe your own hype.

babyfaceafrica:
Everyone is free yo dream... Your candidate will come a distant third.

post=117506511:

Dumbo what is the voters registration of Borno and Yobe when compare with Rivers and Delta alone in Southsouth

Nazgul:
I believe the whole nation is bowled over at the growing popularity of the LP candidate HE Peter Obi. He was written off by political analysts earlier in the year when he joined LP on the basis that his party (LP) had no structure, but at the moment, he's arguably the most popular candidate in the election. The most talked about, the most criticized, the most hated, the most investigated...etc. Of all the candidates.

Obviously if he's opponents believed he lacked the political structure needed to win the election they wouldn't have given him kind of attention they're currently giving to him.

Social media activists like Reno has made attacking HE Peter Obi a full time job, his tweets about the LP presidential candidate comes in per minute, there are other candidates in other political parties without structure like LP, in fact a party like SDP in 2018 gave PDP and APC a run for their money in the gubernatorial election in Osun State, yet their presidential candidate despite having a visible structure in the SW isn't considered as a threat to the big wigs...this should tell you that LP has become the last beacon of hope for the average Nigerian.

Without wanting to waste your time...I decided to give a forecast of how 2023 elections would look like based on the past voting pattern in the 6 geopolitical zones across Nigeria. And why I believe HE Peter Obi can win.

The core North (NE and NW) since 2003 when Buhari started contesting has always displayed herd mentality towards elections. No Southern candidate has ever defeated a northerner in these two zones. So whoever is projecting any southerner (Tinubu or Peter Obi) to win there is just deceiving them cos I don't see 2023 being any different from past elections in those two zones...they would come out in Mass and vote their fellow northerner.

The NC is divided into two the Christian part and the Muslim part...the Christian section which consists of Nassarawa, Benue, Plateau, Abuja tend to tilt towards Southerners and in this case Peter Obi. A clear example was how Buhari lost Abuja to Jonathan in 2011, 2015 and to Atiku in 2019. I believe the reason is because there's a high population of enlightened people there who aren't part of the herd mentality of the core northerners.

This leaves us with the SE, this zone has been a traditional PDP zone, therefore despite being a southerner, Tinubu wouldn't win any local government here, Peter Obi is projected to get Bloc votes here. The SS voting pattern would be similar to that of the SE only that Atiku would perform better here...but I see it going to Peter Obi, possibly with a very close margin unlike the south east where he would most likely have bloc votes. Tinubu wouldn't win any single state in these two zones.

To the SW, here would really be a political battle ground. Osun and Oyo are PDP States. LP would perform poorly here except in Lagos. And Tinubu won't be getting bloc votes in Lagos despite the high turnout of new registered voters cos he'd have to struggle with LP and PDP for votes.

So in reality tinubu is most likely to win minimum of 5 states and maximum of 8 states... which most likely would be Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti, Ondo, Kogi, and Kwara... possible battle ground that might flip might be Oyo but he wouldn't win Osun State.

Peter Obi if the SS and Christian Bloc of the NC stands behind him should win about 15 states. 5 from the SE, 6 from the SS and 5 from the NC (including Abuja)

Atiku would want to pocket the 6 NE states and 7 NW states which should give him 13 northern States. If Kwankwaso intensifies his campaign and grabs like at least 3 NE states, Atiku's hold would reduce to about 10 states in the bag. This now leaves us with the NC which has 7 states. Of which Tinubu has already grabbed two (Kogi and Kwara) and Peter Obi 4 which are Benue, plateau Nassarawa and Abuja... Atiku would definitely win Niger state making his Total 11 and if you add Osun and Oyo it would be 13

So at the end of it all...

Peter Obi would have won 15 states

Atiku 12-13 States

Tinubu 6-7 States

Kwankwaso 3 States

If Peter Obi can concentrate his efforts on this zones where he's sure of winning it would be better for his campaign. He can't win the core North so he shouldn't wast his resources there, they don't vote Southerners and wouldn't change their mindset. He should solidify his hold on this zones that are winnable and enuse he doesn't loose them as the day goes by.

Source... myself.

Eriokanmi:
In my opinion, Obi will win up to 18 states, including Abuja. Lagos will he tough for Tinubu next year. A lot of us who used to vote the apc have switched to Obi. I read of some guys here earlier this week who said they'd vote sanwoolu as governor and Obi as president. That's the way it will play out.

Who wan dash Tinubu Ondo? He stands a better chance in Osun but as it is, its not sure for him. Adeleke wouid rather declare the place for atiku. Oyo will declare for obi but retain Seyi as their governor. Seyi's recent body language was clear enough on Obi. Obi will get huge votes in Kaduna South and Central. Datti-Baba Ahmed would complement Obi's efforts in Kaduna North.

My concern is on Lagos cos thugs would be deployed by their paymaster to unleash mayhem at some selected locations. I've personslly written to INEC on this and I've gotten a reply. Deployment of military likely in those areas. Watch out!

haslaw:


One IPOB CARNNIBAL will just stay in one little hamlet in Nwewi or some other SE town and be yapping loads of crap.

haslaw:


One IPOB CARNNIBAL will just stay in one little hamlet in Nwewi or some other SE town and be yapping loads of crap.

lhordspy:


I stopped reading whatever the Op was saying when i got to this:

"The NC is divided into two the Christian part and the Muslim part...the Christian section which consists of Nassarawa, Benue, Plateau, Abuja tend to tilt towards Southerners and that is obi"


It is so funny when people who havent been to the north, will just sit and start analysing according to what they wish or what they heard. Imagine someone calling Abuja and Nasawarawa state christians sections. Lol.


Let me just analyse nasarawa electoral strategy a little.

Nasarawa voters are dominated by majorly fulani and mostly ebira the ones from Nasarawa toto, and egon. This are core voters, when i mean core, like they take election period so serious and sacred. They dont joke with it...

I can bet any amount that in nasarawa, kogi and abj.. The three northcentral states that obi wont have a total of 20,000 votes combine.

I have been saying this and i am repeating it... When i see obi supporters mentioning northcentral like it is some kinda walkover state. I just laugh. Some of them havent even been there before. They dont even know the states that makes up the North-central. They just follow what they heard on social media and start concluding. Very funny.

I voted in Nasarawa 2019, i left kd to vote there. I voted for Atiku/obi but APC won the state massively during the presidential election. Infact the present governor, A.A sule even stated that the outcome of the presidential election was what gave him his victory one week later against the PDP candidate, Ombagidibo.

felong:

What have you achieved with your life that would make you call someone a criminal. It's like suffering never taya you. Shameless urchin.

Eriokanmi:
Nibo lo ti ri ipob? Stop thinking only Igbos support obi. You may be making the greatest mistake by always thinking this way

Nazgul:
I believe the whole nation is bowled over at the growing popularity of the LP candidate HE Peter Obi. He was written off by political analysts earlier in the year when he joined LP on the basis that his party (LP) had no structure, but at the moment, he's arguably the most popular candidate in the election. The most talked about, the most criticized, the most hated, the most investigated...etc. Of all the candidates.

Obviously if he's opponents believed he lacked the political structure needed to win the election they wouldn't have given him kind of attention they're currently giving to him.

Social media activists like Reno has made attacking HE Peter Obi a full time job, his tweets about the LP presidential candidate comes in per minute, there are other candidates in other political parties without structure like LP, in fact a party like SDP in 2018 gave PDP and APC a run for their money in the gubernatorial election in Osun State, yet their presidential candidate despite having a visible structure in the SW isn't considered as a threat to the big wigs...this should tell you that LP has become the last beacon of hope for the average Nigerian.

Without wanting to waste your time...I decided to give a forecast of how 2023 elections would look like based on the past voting pattern in the 6 geopolitical zones across Nigeria. And why I believe HE Peter Obi can win.

The core North (NE and NW) since 2003 when Buhari started contesting has always displayed herd mentality towards elections. No Southern candidate has ever defeated a northerner in these two zones. So whoever is projecting any southerner (Tinubu or Peter Obi) to win there is just deceiving them cos I don't see 2023 being any different from past elections in those two zones...they would come out in Mass and vote their fellow northerner.

The NC is divided into two the Christian part and the Muslim part...the Christian section which consists of Nassarawa, Benue, Plateau, Abuja tend to tilt towards Southerners and in this case Peter Obi. A clear example was how Buhari lost Abuja to Jonathan in 2011, 2015 and to Atiku in 2019. I believe the reason is because there's a high population of enlightened people there who aren't part of the herd mentality of the core northerners.

This leaves us with the SE, this zone has been a traditional PDP zone, therefore despite being a southerner, Tinubu wouldn't win any local government here, Peter Obi is projected to get Bloc votes here. The SS voting pattern would be similar to that of the SE only that Atiku would perform better here...but I see it going to Peter Obi, possibly with a very close margin unlike the south east where he would most likely have bloc votes. Tinubu wouldn't win any single state in these two zones.

To the SW, here would really be a political battle ground. Osun and Oyo are PDP States. LP would perform poorly here except in Lagos. And Tinubu won't be getting bloc votes in Lagos despite the high turnout of new registered voters cos he'd have to struggle with LP and PDP for votes.

So in reality tinubu is most likely to win minimum of 5 states and maximum of 8 states... which most likely would be Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti, Ondo, Kogi, and Kwara... possible battle ground that might flip might be Oyo but he wouldn't win Osun State.

Peter Obi if the SS and Christian Bloc of the NC stands behind him should win about 15 states. 5 from the SE, 6 from the SS and 5 from the NC (including Abuja)

Atiku would want to pocket the 6 NE states and 7 NW states which should give him 13 northern States. If Kwankwaso intensifies his campaign and grabs like at least 3 NE states, Atiku's hold would reduce to about 10 states in the bag. This now leaves us with the NC which has 7 states. Of which Tinubu has already grabbed two (Kogi and Kwara) and Peter Obi 4 which are Benue, plateau Nassarawa and Abuja... Atiku would definitely win Niger state making his Total 11 and if you add Osun and Oyo it would be 13

So at the end of it all...

Peter Obi would have won 15 states

Atiku 12-13 States

Tinubu 6-7 States

Kwankwaso 3 States

If Peter Obi can concentrate his efforts on this zones where he's sure of winning it would be better for his campaign. He can't win the core North so he shouldn't wast his resources there, they don't vote Southerners and wouldn't change their mindset. He should solidify his hold on this zones that are winnable and enuse he doesn't loose them as the day goes by.

Source... myself.