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2015 Election Result Projection Model by aletheia(m): 7:31pm On Dec 16, 2014 |
Hello danjohn, Do you recall this thread of yours Updated 2011 Election Result Projection Model from the last election. The models predicted quite accurately the eventual results. How about a similar model for the 2015 election. Are you up for it? 1 Like |
Re: 2015 Election Result Projection Model by danjohn: 6:16pm On Jan 08, 2015 |
aletheia, I am so sorry for my delayed response. I have been working on a more complex model than the one I created last time. This election is a lot harder to model. There are many factors to consider and at this point I think both candidates are more evenly matched than they were in 2011. I will spend time this weekend to finish work on my model and have it ready for you. My sincere apologies for my delayed follow up. 1 Like |
Re: 2015 Election Result Projection Model by aletheia(m): 12:19pm On Jan 13, 2015 |
danjohn: No worries bro. Will be waiting for your response. Did some modelling myself which showed basically a dead heat in which the elections could go either way with a winning margin of about 400,000 to just over a million votes. |
Re: 2015 Election Result Projection Model by emiye(m): 2:22pm On Jan 13, 2015 |
The moment, it can be guaranteed that GMB will secure 50% from the NC region, there is no way the election will be too close to call. All in all, i am certain of a Buhari win. GMB 65% (sw), 10%(se) 15%(ss) 85%(nw) 75%(ne) 55%(nc). While i can predict for the 5 other regions with close to certainty , i am a bit unsure of the NC/fct. The level of PVC collection across regions gives a good view of possible voters turn out. |
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