Let northernas go and fold their arms an wait for welfare packages from buhari...lazy set of people.. I want to ask if we have oil in the sokoto continetal shelves pls..and. I tot they is oil in the north now or has the oil sudenly dry up...someone will sit and project his greatness on another persons wealth,must nigeria depend on ND oil?to rule a nation democratically is not by mouth..buhari should come on board

Billyonaire:
Obiagelli, so you will not share the funds to State Governments and Nothing for Local Governments ? Are you this uneducated to know about these issues. Chai, Buhari has infected you people with dogged daftiness. You wont even leave anything for Excess Crude Account, Nothing for External Reserves. ....Go school, you no gree. You will not even service any loans. Na wa o.

Billydm0r0n, have you recovered from election shock?
I can imagine you dreaming of Jega's face daily.
Nigeria no longer earn Excess crude revenue since August last year.

ideykwum:
See, my dear, I actually admire your bravery! Any right thinking Nairalander ought to llaud you for this thread, but...

You obviously do not understand finance or economics! Debt and equity mixes are part of the intricacies of managing any financial portfolio, and their ratio mixes are used to stimulate growth! Only a stupid economic manager would advocate for an eradication of borrowing (debt), because it helps manage growth and capital projections!

Please let's not give the impression that debt is bad for the economy! It's poor management of debt that is the challenge, and this management starts from the acquisition of the debt to closing out!

Nne, you try...but try harder!

Y

I never said debt was bad.

jpphilips:


A part of crude oil receipt goes to the FIRS.

Royalties and taxes i believe.

You suggested it! When you inferred that we can run the economy "without borrowing". The allusion is that borrowing constitutes some form of inefficiency! You may want to rephrase your words if your meaning is different from what you wrote!

Obiagelli:


I never said debt was bad.

Obiagelli:

If politicians still less, we have no business borrowing. Are you saying oil companies gets more than 40%? I have reliable information but i can't find a link for it due to secrecy.

The onus is on Barcanista to disprove your 40% it is a fair estimate but I think we do 55-45 with SPDC, 60-40 with Shell SNEPCO, Will check ENI and Total when I get to work, Your 40% is a close average.

Brainless mugun

MuguliciousMUGU:
Nonsense

go school, you won't go... You can see how buhari certificateless brain is affecting yours.

Just as they say, show me your friend and i will tell you who you are.

I rest my case.

We are watching the miracles...

Gbawe:
Obiagelli, with all due respect, why did you bother starting this thread? You seem to be one of the APC supporters who appear bothered by what the bitter and malevolent enemies of Nigeria's progress, parading themselves as PDP supporters, have to say. I once told you before the election to ignore them because most are bitter and twisted people who wanted GEJ to win so he could continue destroying Nigeria. You argued that their lies need to be countered lest such be construed as truth which may harm the chances of the APC. What is your excuses now? The APC has won and no APC supporter needs to get in the sewer with these PDP rats anymore. Do you think their hateful heart is open to be convinced by anything you have to say in defence of the plans of the APC? You do not owe them any explanation. Let them think and say the worst. Buhari and tne APC will only disgrace them again and again.

We have now all seen that these PDP Nairalanders are mainly bitter, uncouth, hateful and malevolent losers who only want to engage in Buhari-baiting of APC fans here. Many are irredeemable haters and you will get nothing but insults from them, as you do here, simply because you care about the opinion of losers when you do not have to anymore. Do not let them percieve you a "weak link" they can target and bully. With this thread for example, you have only given them their much desired congregation ground to fight APC here because that is what they badly need to sooth the bitter taste of defeat in their hateful mouths. I would suggest you grow a thick skin and begin ignoring or mocking them as some of us who know their game do. Silence is the best answer for a fool. Especially hateful fools who are in pain.

Words of wisdom sir, thanks.

jpphilips:


The onus is on Barcanista to disprove your 40% it is a fair estimate but I think we do 55-45 with Shell, 60-40 with SPDC, Will check ENI and Total when I get to work, Your 40% is a close average.

Oh, thanks.

Flets:
OP like many Nigerians are shallow economists. So many holes can be easily picked from the quack calculations

1a. Where is the 13% derivation to the oil producing states? Or you assumed the FG takes the full 60% of crude sales revenue? .....
and even after 13% deduction, only 54% of the residual 47% (excluding 13% for producing states and 40% for the IOCs) of total crude sales revenue goes to the FG.

1b. FG budget is for FG expenditure alone. FG does not budget for states...... so where are the state allocations funded from since they are not captured in the FG budget?.... for your education, 46% of the residual revenue is meant for states and LGs.

2. Where do you think the capital cost of oil and gas projects come from for which the FG pays its 60% share? Or you think the oil flows on its own without spending money?

3. 2.65trillion of the 4.69trillion IGR you quoted on FIRS is already petroleum profit. Go back check the details and confirm you have double dipped same funds on both sources.

4. Your assumption that FG takes all the IGR generated by FIRS is wrong. Discount the amount accruable to the states first in your calculations.

5. What funds the external reserves or all revenues must be spent on recurrent expenditure?

Our revenue economics is not as simple as you lot think. Now that political campaigns are over, its time to educate Nigerians that our revenues are not limitless and some campaign points are not achievable albeit sustainable.

Assuming, Buhari miracously finds some fraction of the funds required for the welfare programs, how do you identify the poorest of the poor Nigerians deserving of the 5K?, What database is available to identify the welfare recipients? We even struggle to identify bonafide Nigerians much more low income earners.

Every effort to defend economic impossibilties reveals the shallowness of the incoming government.

Flets,dont mind Obiagelli,APC never stop their propaganda and lies,she forget that Nigeria run recurrent expenditure based economy,paying salaries and servicing debts....I wish us all Goodluck,have a blessed day.

jpphilips:


The onus is on Barcanista to disprove your 40% it is a fair estimate but I think we do 55-45 with Shell, 60-40 with SPDC, Will check ENI and Total when I get to work, Your 40% is a close average.

You fail to factor in generation cost and royalties to your revenue projection..

ochejoseph:
‎
Honestly Buhari and the APC made many unrealistic promises in the lead up to the election!

Nigerians will hold him and the APC to their words as regards issues like 

1. 5000 naira social security project for the unemployed Young Nigerians

2. 24 hours power supply or 12000MW in 8 months 

3. Naira dollar parity or substantial appreciation 

4. Feeding project for pupils etc 

Oby my dear your analysis did not capture other critical components, statutory deductions and the revenue sharing formula (FG /States /LGA )
Revenue accruals is not like debit and credit. 


Whether or Not Buhari and the APC has the capacity to deliver on these promises ONLY TIME WILL TELL! 

For the sake of Nigeria I pray he succeeds 

May God Continue to Bless this great Nation! 

You hypocrite!!!!

We Nigerians ll support them all through

We didn't vote for APC under what i called Promises-Must-Be-Fulfilled-Agreement

We voted for APC so as to see some changes most especially Corruption.

Why didn't you hold PDP responsible for not fulfilling their promises?

barcanista:
Did anyone notice that Obiagelli had to modify her original post? Please take a look again. She has realised her folly and instead of apologising, she only wrote the real thing at the bottom of the Original post.

Obiagelli you need to read on how things work. Obiagelli your edited post has given credence to my thread that Buhari's policy is Dead on Arrival.

Truckpusher anonimi lalasticlala firefire

I only added the 52percent FG revenue allocation, i didn't change anything from my original post. You simply have no idea what you are talking about.

Flets:
OP like many Nigerians are shallow economists. So many holes can be easily picked from the quack calculations

1a. Where is the 13% derivation to the oil producing states? Or you assumed the FG takes the full 60% of crude sales revenue? .....
and even after 13% deduction, only 54% of the residual 47% (excluding 13% for producing states and 40% for the IOCs) of total crude sales revenue goes to the FG.

1b. FG budget is for FG expenditure alone. FG does not budget for states...... so where are the state allocations funded from since they are not captured in the FG budget?.... for your education, 46% of the residual revenue is meant for states and LGs.

2. Where do you think the capital cost of oil and gas projects come from for which the FG pays its 60% share? Or you think the oil flows on its own without spending money?

3. 2.65trillion of the 4.69trillion IGR you quoted on FIRS is already petroleum profit. Go back check the details and confirm you have double dipped same funds on both sources.

4. Your assumption that FG takes all the IGR generated by FIRS is wrong. Discount the amount accruable to the states first in your calculations.

5. What funds the external reserves or all revenues must be spent on recurrent expenditure?

Our revenue economics is not as simple as you lot think. Now that political campaigns are over, its time to educate Nigerians that our revenues are not limitless and some campaign points are not achievable albeit sustainable.

Assuming, Buhari miracously finds some fraction of the funds required for the welfare programs, how do you identify the poorest of the poor Nigerians deserving of the 5K?, What database is available to identify the welfare recipients? We even struggle to identify bonafide Nigerians much more low income earners.

Every effort to defend economic impossibilties reveals the shallowness of the incoming government.

I will love to know who you are ... You earn a reward from me ... Kindly provide me with your Contact and I shall call you at once

nduchucks:


Are you a learner?

Adding other revenues from other sources will makes Obiagelli's postulations more credible.

Thanks.

The truth of the matter is that incoming govt won't be that foolish to enroll all unemployed Nigerian graduates and schools in the first year of the social scheme.

I want to believe they will start with some selected few who falls within some criteria to be identified and which will be simultaneous with the income generation and database that would assist the smooth implementation of the scheme.

For me (as a management expert), it is very possible but not at 100% in the first few years of commencement.

Coldfeet:
Good question. For years I've wondered what happens to the other natural resources we have in this country! The gold and other precious stones up north who mines them and are the revenues generated from them ever made available to the rest of the nation ? Or is it a case of my own is mine and yours is ours mentality of the born to rule?

When Nigerian Govt was spending its revenues on oil, what do you think will happen to other sectors? ?

OAM4J:
I ordinarily didnt want to join this debate but since Obiagelli has opened a counter thread, I feel there is need to strengthen her argument.

Fact is, I believe in this old Bank-PHP statement that 'impossible is nothing' and the common saying 'where there is a will, there is a way'. I believe the likes of Dr. Fayemi and Prof Osinbajo who came up with the manifesto are not dullards and they probably have more access to true figures of things than many of us, and they have strong reasons to believe in the feasibility of these things before making it public.

That said, I know without raising new taxes or even doing anything new (and of course I expect them to bring in a lot of new innovations) I know the money expected for these social welfare program can be gotten from the following:

1. Blocking oil theft of 350,000 to 450,000 barrels per day will give us hundreds of billions

2. hundreds of billions lost to corruption from customs duties. You only need to visit any Nigeria port to know this.

3. Aggressive drive towards collecting all taxes accruable to FG as it is done in Lagos, am sure that will also give us hundreds of billions.

It might take a little while, but if there is a sincerity of purpose and a strong will to implement these social programs, it is very doable.

Exactly, the point of this thread is to prove that i is very possibly.

Omooba77:


You fail to factor in generation cost and royalties to your revenue projection..

stop being s! lly how can you have Royalty without OPS cost?

garrix8:


I think so, according to the CBN website, Petroleum Profit Tax goes to FIRS.



http://www.cenbank.org/Intops/ReserveMgmt.asp

You have been a blessing to this thread. God bless you brother.


Barcanista please read this link and educate yourself.

kaboninc:


Your keyword here is double.

I hope by now you've come to realise that even what is budgeted (as expected expenditure) may or may not tally with what is received (as expected income)? I hope you do.

Let's say that our income is around 4.6trn. What mining activity can generate 4.6trn at the moment? Before you respond, please consider mining in large commercial quantities.

Are you kidding me? Do you know how many minerals are in Nassarawa alone?

aresa:






Generated from taxes/IGR and not oil?


Why do you people argue blindly, ignorantly and deceptively?

Don't mind them, all they know how to do is copy and paste.

Obiagelli:

Are you kidding me? Do you know how many minerals are in Nassarawa alone?

Nigeria is blessed with gold (in the SW), bitumen, iron ore, granite etc. N2 trillion revenue can be generated from mining these solid minerals.

Abok1:






[b]
I posted the following earlier on another thread:
Shell royalties paid to Nigeria
2003 - 1.8 billion
2004 - $3.3 billion
2005 - $4.3 billion
2006 - $3.5 billion


Source:
http://reports.shell.com/sustainability-report/2011/servicepages/previous/files/shell_report_2003.pdf
http://reports.shell.com/sustainability-report/2013/servicepages/previous/files/shell_report_2004.pdf


between 2007 to 2011
$38 billion

Source:
http://reports.shell.com/sustainability-report/2011/ouractivities/deliveringenergyresponsibly/nigeria.html


From the figures above which is from Shell alone, the cost of crude oil at 2006 was $58 per barrel and shell paid $3.5 billion, this figure is also factoring the Niger delta constant pipeline blow ups. Also in 2006 shell had the Bonga oil field oil leakage, which led to loss of products to the leaks and also extra cost of fixing the leakages.

Using the above figures, if Shell alone is paying approximately 855 billion naira (using today's rate), how much do think the FG would make from the other firms considering the fact that there is an increased output form the Oil companies and there is peace in the region.


[/b]

God bless you, these are the kind of thing people like Barcanista fail to understand. He has absolutely no idea what our national income is and how they are arrived at.

Firefire:


I see your analysis in attempting to counter Bacarnista, but your projection make it looks as if Buhari will feed the children from all the revenue accrued to the government going by your computations, thou with many noticed loopholes.

Buhari and APC govt. cannot afford to fail, the faith reposed in their government is beyond any complain or excuses.

They must deliver all their electoral promises, if it would involve borrowing some money from Bukola Saraki, Ahmed Tinubu, Rotimi Amaechi and others in their camp.

Peace.

Give them a chance to prove themselves

Chigold101:
please remind me where our offshore crude is coming from? Talking of LNG, i think it is still coming from Niger Delta.

Government revenue go into many things.

GMB can start all these his social whatever even this year 2015 but by the end of 2016 Nigeria will be in a HUGE fix. Because many fg government will stand still & salaries would be hard to be payed.

GMB/APC have even come out to deny some of the things they said during their campaign, soon they will also deny ever making these promises too.

That is why he is already trending as:
[size=28pt]"BABA ONE CHANCE"[/size]

Abok1:






[b]
I posted the following earlier on another thread:
Shell royalties paid to Nigeria
2003 - 1.8 billion
2004 - $3.3 billion
2005 - $4.3 billion
2006 - $3.5 billion


Source:
http://reports.shell.com/sustainability-report/2011/servicepages/previous/files/shell_report_2003.pdf
http://reports.shell.com/sustainability-report/2013/servicepages/previous/files/shell_report_2004.pdf


between 2007 to 2011
$38 billion

Source:
http://reports.shell.com/sustainability-report/2011/ouractivities/deliveringenergyresponsibly/nigeria.html


From the figures above which is from Shell alone, the cost of crude oil at 2006 was $58 per barrel and shell paid $3.5 billion, this figure is also factoring the Niger delta constant pipeline blow ups. Also in 2006 shell had the Bonga oil field oil leakage, which led to loss of products to the leaks and also extra cost of fixing the leakages.

Using the above figures, if Shell alone is paying approximately 855 billion naira (using today's rate), how much do think the FG would make from the other firms considering the fact that there is an increased output form the Oil companies and there is peace in the region.


[/b]

God bless you, these are the kind of thing people like Barcanista fail to understand. He has absolutely no idea what our national income is and how they are arrived at.

Billyonaire:
You are fucking crazy sweetie, so you re-ammended the post. I didnt see that, but based on earlier calculus, we need 1.87 trillion, and you are able to realize 0.6 trillion that is 600 billion ? How will you get the remaining 1.2 trillion to fulfil the idiotic promise of free food ? Yeye dey smell oh. I got to go to bed, you are mischievous.

pls check this sir... www.nairaland.com/2257006/urgently-need-nairalanderspls

taharqa:


Obiagelli o, for Goodness sake, accept your huge errors and bow out gracefully. Your initial OP was a complete mess. Am sure you know that by now cos you are a smart gurl.

You would have noticed that most of us have been somewhat cautious in responding to you on this thread, in spite of the glaring errors in the OP. That cos you are considered about the sanest APC supporter here on NL. Don't overstretch that welcome, biko.

Do the graceful thing...

I could have made some errors in my post because nobody actually know how much we earn. I would like you to post/correct my error. The purpose of this thread was to prove how possible Buhari's programmes are, and i think i have done that.

kaboninc:


Hmmmm...so by giving primary school children, one meal per day, there will be a massive boom in the agricultural sector? Hian!

The MDGs were developed for certain reasons. These goals amongst other things seek to eradicate extreme poverty. Spending money on a meal per day and empowering these homes (the parents), which do you think is an effective way of reducing poverty?

I know the effects it will have on agriculture. How has the Mdgs fared?

Billyonaire:
You are fucking crazy sweetie, so you re-ammended the post. I didnt see that, but based on earlier calculus, we need 1.87 trillion, and you are able to realize 0.6 trillion that is 600 billion ? How will you get the remaining 1.2 trillion to fulfil the idiotic promise of free food ? Yeye dey smell oh. I got to go to bed, you are mischievous.

First of all, the programme is to be staggered, it is not a one off thing, its for 4 years.

Secondly there are several other sources of income i have not captured. So my dear, it is achievable.

CFCfan:

Nigeria is blessed with gold (in the SW), bitumen, iron ore, granite etc. N2 trillion revenue can be generated from mining these solid minerals.

Well said.