ITS ALL MAGIC, LIKE THIS:

Extremely useless analysis

Is everyone in the university overseas? Nonsense write-up

Let's watch and see what happens in the coming days/weeks

Contact us for all your roofing jobs and roof maintenance etc

When the Fulani man was in control, the dollar was running away in a hyperinflation. People losing jobs, traders getting frustrated importing goods and access to forex a herculean tax. The only people smiling were the Futa Jallon boys in the corridors of power who benefit at the expense of the people. In just a couple of days a Southerner takes over, dollar starts to fall, there is more access to FOREX and structures are very much in place to ease transactions at the ports. Leading a country is much more complex that guiding cows through cities with a stick and making milk from tiger nuts

deflover:
Last week we saw one of the greatest drop in the value of the dollar with a sharp gain of the naira in the black market. How was this achieved. Who made this happen. Who is the smart ass.
Anyway this move made a lot of people poorer i.e currency speculators who kept buying the dollar putting a demand on the dollar while the naira suffered from low demand till it hit the high of 2016 and just then the CBN intervention came in with a mad flood of much more dollars and the mopping up of naira so that there was a scarcity of naira.
And wholla the dollar came crashing down while the more the naira was mopped out of the system.

This brilliant intervention means the CBN is using our reserves to fight the dollar war
How sustainable is this ....will the CBN be willing to continue this.

As a forex trader with 10years experience I watched with my mouth open as it happened and shook my head as the internet was glowing with news how osinbanjo is the man
How he tamed the dollar in one swing of the magic wand.I saw panic selling going on as many turned in thier dollar. While smart investors bought all these dollars for keeps.
Now the dollar fall has stopped
Why did it stop
I thought it will fall for ever as we are made to believe.
Just yesterday while watching ARISE TV the news came out of the economy contracting by -1.4% for the first time in 20years.
Meaning for the first time in 20years the economy stopped growing
Now the real bad news was from the PMI ( producers manufacturing index) saying it fell
What does this mean
It mean the real people who needs the dollars are not getting it
But osinbanjo gave dollars for school fees payment
While the manufacturers who need dollars are not getting it

Even the economy according to the news saw major improvement from the oil sector because militants have stopped bombing
So the non oil sector fell even the most holy agriculture.

Osinbanjo has stated in the last FED meeting he favours a devaluation of the naira.
Right now the naira is 405naira to 1 dollar
Let's assume he goes ahead to devalue to let's say 20 basic points
That would be 425naira to 1 dollar
Now imagine what the black market will do
We will be looking at 550-600naira to 1 dollar
Already JP Morgan is worried that Nigeria is not attracting FDIs ( foreign direct investments)
What does that leave us
It leaves us with an economy that will keep shrinking and a dollar war we can't win as fear will make more people demand for dollars as naira will keep falling.
My advice to you
Keep buying the dollar for keeps
Keep your bulk money in dollars
The trip to hell is about to get nasty
God save our soul

mean while, they have another plan to defraud for us.

deflover:
Last week we saw one of the greatest drop in the value of the dollar with a sharp gain of the naira in the black market. How was this achieved. Who made this happen. Who is the smart ass.
Anyway this move made a lot of people poorer i.e currency speculators who kept buying the dollar putting a demand on the dollar while the naira suffered from low demand till it hit the high of 2016 and just then the CBN intervention came in with a mad flood of much more dollars and the mopping up of naira so that there was a scarcity of naira.
And wholla the dollar came crashing down while the more the naira was mopped out of the system.

This brilliant intervention means the CBN is using our reserves to fight the dollar war
How sustainable is this ....will the CBN be willing to continue this.

As a forex trader with 10years experience I watched with my mouth open as it happened and shook my head as the internet was glowing with news how osinbanjo is the man
How he tamed the dollar in one swing of the magic wand.I saw panic selling going on as many turned in thier dollar. While smart investors bought all these dollars for keeps.
Now the dollar fall has stopped
Why did it stop
I thought it will fall for ever as we are made to believe.
Just yesterday while watching ARISE TV the news came out of the economy contracting by -1.4% for the first time in 20years.
Meaning for the first time in 20years the economy stopped growing
Now the real bad news was from the PMI ( producers manufacturing index) saying it fell
What does this mean
It mean the real people who needs the dollars are not getting it
But osinbanjo gave dollars for school fees payment
While the manufacturers who need dollars are not getting it

Even the economy according to the news saw major improvement from the oil sector because militants have stopped bombing
So the non oil sector fell even the most holy agriculture.

Osinbanjo has stated in the last FED meeting he favours a devaluation of the naira.
Right now the naira is 405naira to 1 dollar
Let's assume he goes ahead to devalue to let's say 20 basic points
That would be 425naira to 1 dollar
Now imagine what the black market will do
We will be looking at 550-600naira to 1 dollar
Already JP Morgan is worried that Nigeria is not attracting FDIs ( foreign direct investments)
What does that leave us
It leaves us with an economy that will keep shrinking and a dollar war we can't win as fear will make more people demand for dollars as naira will keep falling.
My advice to you
Keep buying the dollar for keeps
Keep your bulk money in dollars
The trip to hell is about to get nasty
God save our soul

I don't understand your point.

Persimism is all I see.

Keneking:
Extremely useless analysis

Is everyone in the university overseas? Nonsense write-up

bodejohn:
@OP, God bless you for this summary of my thoughts. I'm in agreement with you 100% except where you suggested that speculators should buy dollar for keeps.

Nigerians are known for early celebrations and in this Era where you can easily be labeled a wailer, fewer people are saying it exactly the way it is.

I don't think the policy is sustainable in the long run and the biggest question as was echoed by you is why is this dollar going to pta/bta and school fees? Medical is a bit understandable.

The poltical class is still subsidizing the rich at the expense of the poor. If we have dollar supply from renewed crude oil sales...we should be giving same to manufacturers to buy raw materials and machinery. The government needs to stimulate the economy as soon as possible...before it becomes a little too late...

we need to produce those raw material in Nigeria so as to discourage importation.the only way to have made in naija goods

Op, keep consoling yourself.

Better cut your losses and move on. Sorry for busting your bubble, the Naira will appreciate further before it stabilizes at around N400/$1 (in the parallel market). I'm sure you're saddened the more . Kpele. I don't even have any pity for you. Afterall, you're only one of those people SLS was referring to, who were making billions from round-tripping, without leaving their homes...to the detriment of poor Nigerians and the ailing Nigerian economy.

By the way, where did you get your official rate of N405/$1 from? The official dollar exchange rate is nowhere near that amount you plucked from the air, sir!

But this may be you consoling yourself again.

bodejohn:

I don't think the policy is sustainable in the long run and the biggest question as was echoed by you is why is this dollar going to pta/bta and school fees? Medical is a bit understandable.

...

you were making sense until here


do you have kids abroad


if no if you were financially able n be honest to your soul n creator


would you let your child pick lautech or unilag or ui over an ivy league school ??


so stfu with the useless hypocrisy against school fees


Nigeria education system is a mess..n quite frankly most people attend it coz they have no choice


my issue isnt the fact that if we invest those money into studying here wont 9ja schools get better no


but the reality Nigerian school/education system isnt ready nor willing to improve


whats the plain for Nigerian graduates- nada
ASUU officials are in it for themselves only


not inferiority complex but schooling abroad even ghana gives you a better shot at a more steady job



more so if you can afford the good things of life why not go for it



so please and please stop coming for the sch.fees


we dont get it at 375 as u expect

same as manufacturers

most of our parents get at black market

it aint rosy as you think


you think the banks are willing to sell to students

Advising people to buy and hoard dollars so that they can sell to gain immensely is not different from what our legislooters are doing. I don't blame the OP though, afterall instead of making forex available for manufacturers and Business people, FG/CBN/Bank officials could only reason subsiding the dollars for school fees abroad at this particular period of the year when such activities are minimal.

icon8:
Op, keep consoling yourself.

Better cut your losses and move on. Sorry for busting your bubble, the Naira will appreciate further before it stabilizes at around N400/$1. I'm sure you're saddened the more

By the way, where did you get your official rate of N405/$1 from? The official dollar rate is nowhere near that amount you plucked from the air, sir!

mentality like this is why nigeria is stagnant


op had some flaws in his post but was he wrong??


no


how long can we sustain it thats the

million dollar question

No, sire!

Sustainability is a totally different kettle of fish.

The OP wrote as a pained businessman who is losing money as a result of this belated move.

That said, I refuse to join issues with you!

mykelmeezy:



mentality like this is why nigeria is stagnant


op had some flaws in his post but was he wrong??


no


how long can we sustain it thats the

million dollar question

unclezuma:
Op check your spelling before they come for you. And be ready to defend your post.

This should be in the front-page don't you think so Lalasticlala?

I wonder what will make you people happy in this country,if you have profer solution instead of your myopic view I would av give you some accolades but instead you just show the whole wide world how idiotic and sillly you are.

Let me tell you even those that called themselves manufacturer you says they never got the dollar refuse to buy raw material instead they sell at black market which is more favorbale than their products.

he doesnt need to sustain it,interventions like this is needed at this time since most of the big guy decides to keep stock dollar and sell in d black markets.

Nigerian we are our Enemy no one love this nation's we 're all funny human and yet we are the most religion,my advice for you Always reason Analytically before you open a thread

deflover:


I am ready for them

Are you sure.....DSS is real ooh. Your talk reminds me of Olisa Metu.

Nobody hears about his running mouth since DSS and EFCC removed batteries from his noisy China Phone.

Hoarding dollars? kinda a selfish assertion. We should put in place mechanisms that will turn our economy back to its former glory. Too bad this country is filled with selfish corrupt looters who would prefer to steal and hide their loots away in pits and uncompleted building.... FYI, You ain't gonna take one Penny to Your Grave! You can only eat so much.... I believe we will get there someday though.

The OP of this thread has very evil intentions. Oil production is going to peak at about 2.2million barrels per day very soon. The price of oil is almost USD 60 per barrel. We have enough dollars to liquefy the entire country for months. I'm wondering why the OP will go and look for bad news in the form of the GDP figures, and twist it, to try to encourage currency speculation?
The GDP figures were even very encouraging because the rate of decline in growth has all but reduced. We should start seeing positive growth from Q2.
The MODS should please close this thread down because it was created with the sole intent of causing panic with false information and encouraging panic dollar buying and currency speculation. The OP of this thread has devilish intentions. Currency speculation should be added to the nairaland rule list. There is just no factual basis for any of the things the OP has written here.

deflover:

My advice to you
Keep buying the dollar for keeps
Keep your bulk money in dollars
The trip to hell is about to get nasty
God save our soul

You have analysed correctly (without giving solutions) However, you're now exacerbating the whole issue by spreading panic buying and spelling doomsday before its arrived.

Some Solution may be ;

If the government can back it up by supporting or seeking trade deals for local exports (which is not done yet) then it's likely it could gradually replace to some extent our foreign exchange needs. At the same time, supporting or incentives to local business who can process raw materials for industries would be helpful.

Not supporting or having the essential infrastructures affects industries for raw materials who simply can not operate or run to meet demand.

The others that depends on these raw materials are then the ones who have to seek alternatives by importing raw materials from abroad keeping pressure on the naira.

mykelmeezy:



mentality like this is why nigeria is stagnant


op had some flaws in his post but was he wrong??


no


how long can we sustain it thats the

million dollar question

Cbn doesnt need to sustain it Oga this problem is caused by some greeting animals that will never see good they want to plung the country in anarchy

My friend, go and face your loss. U bought dollars and hoard with the hope that The free fall of Naira will continue. Sorry, the reverse is the case. You can only sell this your stupid economic ideas to MMM participants.

This OP is a very bitter pessimist. Even giving clues how to further derail the ₦aira. Support the naira no matter what. This move by cbn shows they are not sleeping like we thought. 100 strokes of the cane for this yeye OP

The op raised pertinent question until he made the erroneous advice of hoarding the dollar. I hope you understand that the black market value of the dollar is due largely to speculations and so, based on the actual market demands, the value may be below 400naira. There are certain economic indices that do not work in Nigeria due to lack of transparency and endemic corruptions, like the price of petrol was anticipated to fall but just as oil price rose, behold so was the exchange rate to eliminate the gains in the market.
some cleansing need to be done in Nigeria because some hawks are too powerful. Government can focus on PMI through systematic forex and investments tones, the truth is, many have abandoned their factories to become forex traders where they hammer quick. Another thing is intensification of SMEs and sourcing local raw materials etc
If well managed, government should do a media war on speculators and keep critical interventions in place, the dollar shouldn't be more than 120% of the official rate at the parallel market.

OP you are part of the problem of this country.

tamonokare:


Please what are gift cards ?

A gift card is a pre-loaded card which a person can spend at a specific store/retailer. For example if your friend's birthday is approaching and you don't know what to give them but you know they shop a lot at a particular place (let's say amazon), you can simply buy an amazon gift card, load it with the amount you can afford and then give your friend the gift card. It is then up to them what they use it to buy.

As for these people on nairaland always asking if gift cards are available, I don't know what they use it for.

pressplay411:


I understand you're just a pessimist. Even worse anti-progress, an epitome of a consummate saboteur, a true Wailer's role model. But to advice people to keep buying and hoarding the dollar (obviously for forex trading) at the expense of the naira, further depreciating it's value makes absolutely no sense.

How will Nigeria ever grow with such mentality? With anti-progress negative business ideas like this?
You're no better than a common political brute frustrating the nation's Electricity just to keep his Generator and Oil businesses thriving.

We need help and reorientation in this country. Our sense of patriotism has gone extinct.

enemy of Nigeria!!!

mykelmeezy:



mentality like this is why nigeria is stagnant


op had some flaws in his post but was he wrong??


no


how long can we sustain it thats the

million dollar question

Even if the OP made some points should he lie and mislead people? Dollar is nowhere near 400 naira officially. The Op Is a forex trader and any appreciation of the naira is bad news to him hence this write up.
For so long people like the Op and other speculators have held the whole country to ransom but that will end soon.

Lol, op pls tell me how much did you lose, i am absolutely sure beyond reasonably doubt you are a dollar hoarder who was beaten at his own game by CBN, therefore you want

People to Buy dollar
Hord dollar so you can recoup ur loses

deflover:


Yes he did it
But it was sustainable because he had more sales from oil and the economy was growing by an average of 2.5% yearly
So we didn't notice it
The question here
Is the economy growing that osinbanjo can take this path

@OP, for the sake of the discussion on the points raised, it seems you lack the locus standi to speculate on what happens next with the Naira's value in the nearest future. I came to this conclusion based on your cited sources. The fact that JP Morgan made a comment about the FDI being on the decline is not fact without you stating the period under review, for which the prediction was made. The Trump's administration and its knee jerk reaction, the UK Brexit are some of the reasons that investors are still hesitant to part with funds without knowing what happens next.

If you read the CBN's press release you would have seen that the manufacturing sector is being catered for as well, the policy about the school payments is to address the stress on the Naira from the larger percentage of people that would normally source forex through the black markets. Citing Arise TV as your source of information about the shrinking economy give you away as a neophyte in the forex world.

Current indices point at a recovering economy from the Nigerian point of view. The dollar bonds was recently over subscribed, production of crude oil is being ramped up to go beyond the current 2.1million bpd, on the heels of the price of the crude going up beyond the budget benchmark, as OPEC members are sticking to their quotas. The foreign reserve is on an upward trajectory and the CBN has a lot of cash to play with.

Why should people hold on to dollars when it's not looking promising in the next couple of weeks?

I'll tell you what will happen. The CBN's intervention will drive Naira to 400 to the green back, and hoarders like you with money tied down will panick and start offloading while they still can, which will in turn drive the rates to hover around the 360 mark before stabilising at around 355.

Well I'm not in a position to judge, but ending your write up with the suggestions that people should hoard the greenback, is the worst possible way to go for any sane person. If you think anyone can take on the state backed CBN, then I wish good luck (no pun intended)

deflover:


I am ready for them

oga i read ur harvard post ,,you are only consoling ursef,, it takes common sense (@this moment Bleep my b.sc) to know that continuous intervention by the CBN wil strengthen our naira against foreign currencies.. we av patiently watch this govt do trya n error policies nd @ last ,,the CBN as gotten ut right.
we knw d dollar crisis is man-made ,,people lik you/speculators hoarding dollar anticipating rise ....the amount of foreign currencies in circulation is less nd nothing compared to the foreign currencies hidden in mud houses ,,soak away nd under the bed.
As against ur advice,,the gudnews is oil is selling nd our foreign reserve is getting bigger this alone wil giv CBN upper hand ova speculator/parallel markets not to mention the panic already created..now is even wen to sell because dollar go fall to 3** nex week.
u beta cart hypertension drugs
i stand to be corrected their is more gain wen dollar is cheap,,economicwise,,cost living & standard of living wil b beta .... even for the currency traders,,wen dollar is cheap pple wil buy more ,,quantity= gain in the world of currency trading..
for those wey b naija problem we are ready for them wit curses enuf to power there whole generation..

Even if you are right, your advise is still wrong. Instead of telling people to hoard dollars, you should encourage people to use their Naira to exporting more commodities and services so that we can earn more dollars?

Hoarding dollars is a bad advice... how long do you think it can go on before our currency and economy collapses?

deflover:


You see the problem
I am a wailier
A this a that
No difference to politician
Anti progress

You see my friend
Just because it hurts doesn't stop the doctor from going in
I gave you facts but I am a wailier making you a zombie I guess

Dispute the message
Tell me I am lying that these facts are not there

I tell people to protect themselves by buying dollars
So it makes me evil right
My friend be wise
Buying the naira won't save you nor us
The road is nasty and survival is the one right of all humans

Bro you just preached anarchy. I would be scared. I'm no expert in forex trading but from your explanation seems it's either going to get better or worse. Hope we're ready for the dollar war tbh but as Nigerian I hope we can sustain this

akp202:
I concur with this.... His write up makes me to wonder if he actually sought for d growth of our economy or d other way round... Why asking People to hoard d dollar when he knows that is detrimental to our naira currency?
Am sure he was one of d wailing wailers when filling station where hoarding fuel due to selfish interest.
Well am not a forex trader with 10 years experience but what I see from where I sit hoarding d dollar is simply not the best for our economy

Despite the fact I'm not apc fan in anyway I guess hording the dollars won't do much help to the economy. But to be honest Nigeria as acountry need a lot to be done to put some stuffs in good order. Osibanjo seems trying to do a bit better in some of his decision. But in as much I can see the situation hoarding the dollars will be of no much help.