seyisanya:
This is just the beginning; they're becoming so irritatingly non-responsive. If you don't ''JiJo'', you don't need Morgan Capital!

gabscity:


I mentioned this sometime ago, some people here said it wasn't true. Morgan has a poor customer service! They will soon loose many clients!

Multiplier7:
Is like today market no give anybody mouth to talk today

Is well

Tvegas:
I sent Morgan Capital a mail for a reduced transaction fee because of volume of transaction i plan to do with them about 2 weeks ago, They promised to get back and till now Morgan hasn't said anything. I sent a follow up mail there was no response. Over the weekend I opened another account with Meristem, the customer service experience has been top notch.

My Conclusion: Morgan has made money or has money right now hence they don't need your kobo kobo deposits .Their live trading platform still seems better though but pride goes before fall. They need to watch it.

Meristem Customer service is in a world of its own. If they maintain those quick responses they will go far .

Tvegas:
I sent Morgan Capital a mail for a reduced transaction fee because of volume of transaction i plan to do with them about 2 weeks ago, They promised to get back and till now Morgan hasn't said anything. I sent a follow up mail there was no response. Over the weekend I opened another account with Meristem, the customer service experience has been top notch.

My Conclusion: Morgan has made money or has money right now hence they don't need your kobo kobo deposits .Their live trading platform still seems better though but pride goes before fall. They need to watch it.

Meristem Customer service is in a world of its own. If they maintain those quick responses they will go far .

Tvegas:
I spoke about the expectations of a bullish era earlier. Except the CBN resolves the divergence between the FX black market and official market no serious foreign investor will bring their funds into this country. Even local investors would rather observe where naira ends before committing more funds.

robobo:


Chief the reason is the FX debacle

zimams:
I guess portfolio investors prefer to watch from the sidelines for now... with our non -existent healthcare system ,+500 new covid19 infections per day on average (recorded, not to talk of that not covered by NCDC), they probably anticipate an implosion followed by a broken economy. My thoughts... i may be wrong.

But I don't know how else to rationalise the NSE and the absence of a Bullish run ..in spite of the number under priced stocks, the opportunities they present and the trend with global markets.

I didn't think that by now.....we wouldn't have felt the impact of the over -subscribed SUKUK bond 5 weeks ago in our NSE. I thought a substantial amount of monies returned would have found its way into NSE30.

...Awon boys don divert their returned monies to other markets...

IYGEAL:


The tenor is longer

RabbiDoracle:


There are lots of underpriced opportunities on NSE.

Anyway NSE is moving at a slow pace along side the our economy unlike those in EU and US that are skyrocketing and causing a sharp disconnect between the real economy and the stock market. This is could cause a bubble in the developed markets.

The bull on NSE seems to have an underlining health conditions.

Doc Ukay, come and diagnose o.

RabbiDoracle:


Maybe Meffy is holding back so that he will devalue once rather than doing it many times down the line. Meffy may have seen the handwriting on the wall about developed markets.

RabbiDoracle:


There are lots of underpriced opportunities on NSE.

Anyway NSE is moving at a slow pace along side the our economy unlike those in EU and US that are skyrocketing and causing a sharp disconnect between the real economy and the stock market. This is could cause a bubble in the developed markets.

The bull on NSE seems to have an underlining health conditions.

Doc Ukay, come and diagnose o.

robobo:


That is exactly what they dont want him to do hence d debacle, what they want is free float and Oga Buhari (not even meffy) is very abhorrent to that

on a purcahsing power parity d naira wld be fairly priced between 380 -- 420, considering that the Naira is already at the tail end of this spectrum, one wld have assumed that the FPI should be coming in by now but that is not the case which means they want more (Egypt 2016 comes to mind).

i think both party (Nigeria vs FPI) wld eventually settle for the middle ground i.e. a single rate for all markets but which is being managed by CBN by being the MM in that market.

Hw soon that wld happen is what i cant say because the CBN wld need a large war chest (circa 40 - 45b reserve) to effectively play MM for a single market which they dont currently have. i doubt if the FPI wld come in until that middle ground is achieved.

So this current consolidation might go on for a long time and even has a higher probability of spurring a downtrend if it lingers for too long (though not like that seen in March)

OBAGADAFFI:


The simple solution is for the CBN to ease the FX restrictions,, by allowing owners of FX remittance to get their funds in the foreign currencies and not Naira.

robobo:


my Oga that soultion is not that simple

where is the FX to give them?

OMO maturity btw April and June was of $6b, if as data suggested that FPI constitute the bulk in that (OMO) market place up to as much as 60% then it can safely mean abt $3.6b want to leave d country (that is not counting other markets oooo e.g. Stock ) you wld be talking abt $4 - $4.5b that want to leave. the sales in IEW window btw same period was $900m -- $1b taking the two together you wld have a net of $3 -- $3.5b FPI funds trapped. THE $3.5b above excludes the need of other FX users (importers / fuel / debt service e.t.c)

My Oga if all above is taking together CBN wld need to find abt $10b, if u take $10b out of current reserve it wld give you $25b left of which some component of the remaining $25b is illiquid due to several factors e.g. swap lines / gold holding e.t.c) then you are looking at $15b liquid left which is barley able to cover 2 months of imports.

My Oga if above plays out (i.e. giving them the remittance as you stated) there wld be a massive run on the Naira and by then i doubt if anything of wld be left of the NSE that we currently play. so you see CBN is caught between two hard rocks and it is just doing its best till inflow (post covid / higher oil price) wld allow it to better manage situation

Tvegas:
I sent Morgan Capital a mail for a reduced transaction fee because of volume of transaction i plan to do with them about 2 weeks ago, They promised to get back and till now Morgan hasn't said anything. I sent a follow up mail there was no response. Over the weekend I opened another account with Meristem, the customer service experience has been top notch.

My Conclusion: Morgan has made money or has money right now hence they don't need your kobo kobo deposits .Their live trading platform still seems better though but pride goes before fall. They need to watch it.

Meristem Customer service is in a world of its own. If they maintain those quick responses they will go far .

OBAGADAFFI:


Diaspora remittance is one of the big sources on FX in Nigeria.

Pre-2015 CBN restrictions most Nigerians don't need CBN form M to get FX.

You get you FX from Western-Union etc, and trade it with anyone, so we have surplus FX in circulation.

Now Diasporans don't send much FX anymore, since the CBN is hoarding it.

These CBN restrictions created the current FX crises.

FX business is demand and supply.

What we are experiencing is a supply problem.

robobo:


my Oga that soultion is not that simple

where is the FX to give them?

OMO maturity btw April and June was of $6b, if as data suggested that FPI constitute the bulk in that (OMO) market place up to as much as 60% then it can safely mean abt $3.6b want to leave d country (that is not counting other markets oooo e.g. Stock ) you wld be talking abt $4 - $4.5b that want to leave. the sales in IEW window btw same period was $900m -- $1b taking the two together you wld have a net of $3 -- $3.5b FPI funds trapped. THE $3.5b above excludes the need of other FX users (importers / fuel / debt service e.t.c)

My Oga if all above is taking together CBN wld need to find abt $10b, if u take $10b out of current reserve it wld give you $25b left of which some component of the remaining $25b is illiquid due to several factors e.g. swap lines / gold holding e.t.c) then you are looking at $15b liquid left which is barley able to cover 2 months of imports.

My Oga if above plays out (i.e. giving them the remittance as you stated) there wld be a massive run on the Naira and by then i doubt if anything of wld be left of the NSE that we currently play. so you see CBN is caught between two hard rocks and it is just doing its best till inflow (post covid / higher oil price) wld allow it to better manage situation

OBAGADAFFI:


Diaspora remittance is one of the big sources on FX in Nigeria.

Pre-2015 CBN restrictions most Nigerians don't need CBN form M to get FX.

You get you FX from Western-Union etc, and trade it with anyone, so we have surplus FX in circulation.

Now Diasporans don't send much FX anymore, since the CBN is hoarding it.

These CBN restrictions created the current FX crises.

FX business is demand and supply.

What we are experiencing is a supply problem.

OBAGADAFFI:
STERLING people howfar

robobo:


My Oga this Diaspora funds is overrated

Forget abt the futuristic figure qouted by PWC which was latched onto by politician to score cheap political points

werent the Diaspora remittance available before 2016? if so why was it not able to stop / stall all devaluations before then (i.e. b4 2016)

CBN placed restrictions in 2016 on remittances because it has become a black hole aiding all sorts of crime (laundering e.t.c.) however the CBN still designed another route for the same remittances inflow to reach retail end user by channeling all inflow via remittance to BDC weekly sales / PTA/ BTA.

Anyway we had both agreed on the fact that there is a supply (either through FPI / reduced oil receipt as I stated or via Remittances as u stated) problem which if not resolved wld continue to impact negatively on NSE

onegentleguy:


Diaspora remittances which constitutes the major weighting of FX inflow, is I think, what @ obagadafi is referring to.
The CBN need not fund such plays... it only needs to ease the management policy in that window of inflow and I can authoritatively tell u that at least 60% of our Fx shortfall/need will be covered.

Globally, Diapora remittances is one of the pivotal determinant to maintaining the demand-supply balance in Fx transactions.

If Chima, Osita, Ahmed and Kabiru sends $25,000 each from the abroad and their families can't access the funds and sometimes strugle to get their Fx equivalents from the banks, then u'd naturally expect that supply would be bridged over demand.
If a part of that collective of $100,000 sent by all 4 persons were easily accessible(without Naira conversion) then of course some of those funds would find their way to the market and help ease demand.

It might interest u to know that the total value of diaspora remittances has often superseded the country's yearly budgetary peg.
Imagine if some of these aren't in place.

There are lots to say, but if u understood matters to this point then u'd agree that the Fx challenge in Nigeria is not about supply(higher demand) but about SUPPLY MANAGEMENT brought about several unorthodox policies(restrictions) and bad governance from the fiscal end.
This over time created that disconnect where demand continues to overshadow supply.

Let's hope that we shall overcome this in due course.

Selah

GonFreecss1:


You have said it all perfectly sir.

In Nigeria you can’t only be looking at Financial statements. Studying the economics of it all, is a must.

robobo:


My Oga this Diaspora funds is overrated

Forget abt the futuristic figure qouted by PWC which was latched onto by politician to score cheap political points

werent the Diaspora remittance available before 2016? if so why was it not able to stop / stall all devaluations before then (i.e. b4 2016)

CBN placed restrictions in 2016 on remittances because it has become a black hole aiding all sorts of crime (laundering e.t.c.) however the CBN still designed another route for the same remittances inflow to reach retail end user by channeling all inflow via remittance to BDC weekly sales / PTA/ BTA.

Anyway we had both agreed on the fact that there is a supply (either through FPI / reduced oil receipt as I stated or via Remittances as u stated) problem which if not resolved wld continue to impact negatively on NSE

GonFreecss1:


Wrong sir. Diaspora? How much can they send?

The only thing saving us is and has always been crude oil.

In 2018 alone we spent 44 billion USD saving the naira, how much do Diaspora people want to send to cover that?

1 billion? 2? This is the reason I called a bear on the NSE then and I was right when many here were arguing. What happened last last?

Let us pray Crude oil prices don’t drop further or coronavirus situation doesn’t become sticky, else... the man called “robobo” above has described things well. It won’t be funny at all.

OBAGADAFFI:





You are not going the bigger picture.

All these FX burden CBN is carrying is unnecessary if they had allowed owner of FX remittance to get their FX, not Naira.

Most Companies and individuals formally get their FX from various export businesses and other FX remittances.

But they are now forced to source FX through CBN form M or the black-market at higher rates.




Nigeria receives $17.5 billion diaspora remittances in 2019

https://nairametrics.com/2020/01/11/nigeria-receives-17-5-billion-diaspora-remittances-in-2019/#:~:text=Remittances%20are%20funds%20transferred%20from,source%20of%20much%2Dneeded%20funds.

Nigeria received $96 billion diaspora remittances inflow in 6-years
https://nairametrics.com/2019/10/11/nigeria-received-96-billion-diaspora-remittances-inflow-in-6-years/

robobo:


My Oga i have told you to take all this remittance reports with a pinch of salt.

All the reports are resting on a survey / publication done by PWC which in itself had been questioned on the definition it ascribe to Remittance. For example the remittance reffered to by PWC in its report include non oil export proceed (and is even the largest contributor) which is outside the scope of Diaspora Remittance, and this non oil export proceed is even presently part of IEW market. the other leg of which could rightly be defined as Diaspora remittance (i.e. money sent by Chukwudi/ Adebola / Abdulrahman) as stated by Oga OGG via western union / moneygram e.t.c are not that big circa less than $5b annually, this also is currently on the table becos it is dollars proceed from such remittance that pre covid CBN channeled to BDC weekly sales / PTA / BTA. So on a bigger picture like you all part of the remittance are already in the market place

But as a said in my last post why pre 2015 all the so called remittances werent able to stop / stall devaultions? why do the FPI catch cold once oil price go south, if the so called remittance is of such big impact on the FX plays in Nigeria

las las make we pray make dem (CBN) sort / solve the FX problem quick so that some of those global liquidity can find its way down to NSE, becos na thier my own garri dey