OBAGADAFFI:


You are not going the bigger picture.

All these FX burden CBN is carrying is unnecessary if they had allowed owner of FX remittance to get their FX, not Naira.

Most Companies and individuals formally get their FX from various export businesses and other FX remittances.

But they are now forced to source FX through CBN form M or the black-market at higher rates.

Nigeria receives $17.5 billion diaspora remittances in 2019

https://nairametrics.com/2020/01/11/nigeria-receives-17-5-billion-diaspora-remittances-in-2019/#:~:text=Remittances%20are%20funds%20transferred%20from,source%20of%20much%2Dneeded%20funds.

Nigeria received $96 billion diaspora remittances inflow in 6-years
https://nairametrics.com/2019/10/11/nigeria-received-96-billion-diaspora-remittances-inflow-in-6-years/

U don't need to stress urself too much bro.
...u already put out a valid point, which I believe is a fact !!

The apex bank also confirmed some of these figures at the time, so anyone in doubt can argue with the CBN.
@ robobo also made some valid points though.
The important thing is that collectively, we all agree that there's need for the country(the current administration not necessarily the CBN alone) to allow for a unified Fx window peg, ease certain supply management regulations and align with policies that can better the believability index of our foreign brothers.(exchange rate clarity, confidence boost and greater capital inflow)

That said, and as I already stated here in times past, I think that the country's current surrounding Fx situation is still better than pre/post Jan 2018 and Dec 2019/Jan 2020 period when we witnessed a market rally.(the CBN already adjusted/devalued twice)
Again, assets are currently cheaper(valuation in view) than they were then. ...so I still believe there'll be some rally in time. However, it(the rally) will likely be SELECTIVE, and not accross board though.
For the most part, the prevailing circumstance(oil price strain and corona-induced environment) have already been priced into most assets/coys.
...so I expect the anti-fragile assets/WINNERS to reprise accordingly.

We continue to observe.

stcool:
DAY 3 OF HUGE VOLUMES ON STERLING BANK

Over 120 Million units of sterling changed hands....via cross deals

Sorry o my chief..
Just a quick question.

What's the significance of this trading volume?

Does it affect the share price?
How?

Thanks.

OBAGADAFFI:
https://businesspost.ng/economy/forex-crisis-erisco-foods-folds-sacks-1500-workers/?nonamp=1&amp=1

“My business has been deliberately frustrated by the way the CBN has managed forex bidding and allocation.
“They won’t give us forex to import machinery, machine spare parts and raw materials for processing Nigerian fresh tomatoes into paste in our Lagos factory and they won’t give us approval to use our own money (about $460,000) generated from our foreign operations to import our raw materials.

robobo
GonFreecss1
onegentleguy

My Oga make we leave matter for mathius, Erisco get hin own issue which is in public domain

i am not aware that CBN is stoping any exporter from selling proceeds of exports on the IEW since its inception in 2017, so why he cant sell hin own money to hin self via the IEW is what should be talked to as per Erisco

even the FPI / international DFI acknowledged that the IEW is free and functional market. The only issue with it is lack of depth / liquidity

but make we leave all dis grammar make we pray make dem solve d problem b4 all this global excess liquidity go dry up, so that NSE (indirectly me &u) can get its own share

onegentleguy:


Diaspora remittances which constitutes one of the major weighting of FX inflow(after oil revenue), is I think, what @ Obagadafi is referring to.
The CBN need not fund such plays... it only needs to ease the management constraints in that window of inflow and I can authoritatively tell u that at least 30-40% of our Fx shortfall/need will be covered.

Globally, Diapora remittances is one of the pivotal determinant to maintaining the demand-supply balance in Fx transactions.

If Chima, Osita, Ahmed and Kabiru sends $25,000 each from the abroad and their families can't access the funds and sometimes strugle to get their Fx equivalents/naira from the banks(often @ a discount to parallel mkt rate), then u'd naturally expect that supply would be bridged over demand.
If a part of that collective of $100,000 sent by all 4 persons were easily accessible(without Naira conversion) then of course some of those funds would find their way to the market and help ease demand.

It might interest u to know that the total value of diaspora remittances has sometimes, exceeded the country's yearly budgetary peg.
Imagine if some of these Fx regulations aren't in place.

There are lots to say, but if u understood matters to this point then u'd agree that the Fx challenge in Nigeria is not about supply(higher demand) but about SUPPLY MANAGEMENT brought about by several unorthodox policies(restrictions) and bad governance from the fiscal end.
This has over time, created that disconnect where demand continues to overshadow supply.

Let's hope that we shall overcome this in due course.

Selah

OBAGADAFFI:
https://businesspost.ng/economy/forex-crisis-erisco-foods-folds-sacks-1500-workers/?nonamp=1&amp=1

“My business has been deliberately frustrated by the way the CBN has managed forex bidding and allocation.
“They won’t give us forex to import machinery, machine spare parts and raw materials for processing Nigerian fresh tomatoes into paste in our Lagos factory and they won’t give us approval to use our own money (about $460,000) generated from our foreign operations to import our raw materials.

robobo
GonFreecss1
onegentleguy

The part in bold is exactly what we have been saying.(see post above)
Nigeria's Fx challenge is mainly the result of SUPPLY MANAGEMENT constrains(regulations from the CBN/whack policies from the fiscal end) and NOT necessarily just about supply(higher demand in view) !!

Selah

onegentleguy:


U don't need to stress urself too much bro.
...u already put out a valid point, which I believe is a fact !!

The apex bank also confirmed some of these figures at the time, so anyone with doubt can argue with the CBN.
@ robobo also made some valid points though.
The important thing is that collectively, we all agree that there's need for the country(the current administration not necessarily the CBN alone) to allow for a unified Fx window peg, ease certain supply management regulations and allow for policies that can increase the believability index of our foreign brothers.(exchange rate clarity, confidence boost and greater capital inflow)

That said, I still think that the country's current surrounding Fx situation is still better than pre/post Jan 2018 and March 2020 period when we witnessed a market rally.(the CBN already adjusted/devalued twice)
Again, assets are currently cheaper(valuation in view) than they were then. ...so I still believe there'll be some rally in time. It(the rally) WILL BE SELECTIVE THOUGH.
For the most part, the prevailing circumstance(oil price strain and corona-induced environment)a have already been priced in on most assets/coys.
...so I expect the anti-fragileassets/WINNERS to reprise accordingly.

We continue to observe.

my Oga talking to the bold, in terms of practical value (PPP) of Naira present is better than those two era that u qouted however in term of free flow of FPI present is worse cos for those two era the FPI were able to completely go out (whether by design or accident) but now they are trapped in Naira assets unable to go out. i can say with some high probability of being right that the May / early June rally witnessed on NSE was a result of some FPI rotating back into equity after they cld not get USD upon sales done in March / April

but las las make dem just solve d problem so that we (NSE) can enjoy some of these high wall of liquidity on the global space

Penboy:


Sorry o my chief..
Just a quick question.

What's the significance of this trading volume?

Does it affect the share price?
How?

Thanks.

I stated clearly changing hands...the effect of the new majority holding will reveal itself

meanwhile I loaded my last unit of Sterling at N1.25 moving unto Flourmills ahead of FY end

Quick one please,....what happens when one cancels a partially filled sell order

robobo:


My Oga make we leave matter for mathius, Erisco get hin own issue which is in public domain

i am not aware that CBN is stoping any exporter from selling proceeds of exports on the IEW since its inception in 2016, so why he cant sell hin own money to hin self via the IEW is what should be talked to as per Erisco

even the FPI / international DFI acknowledged that the IEW is free and functional market. The only issue with it is lack of depth / liquidity

but make we leave all dis grammar make we pray make dem solve d problem b4 all this global excess liquidity go dry up, so that NSE (indirectly me &u) can get its own share

IEW was established in 2017

https://www.cbn.gov.ng/out/2017/fmd/establishment%20of%20investors%27%20&%20exporters%27%20fx%20window.pdf

OBAGADAFFI:


IEW was established in 2017

https://www.cbn.gov.ng/out/2017/fmd/establishment%20of%20investors%27%20&%20exporters%27%20fx%20window.pdf

so y cant he sell hin own money to hinself via d window naaa (even in NSE cross deal is allowed / done)

Promo ends 31st July 2020

This market sef... Fcmb coming to my usual junction to reenter

E Ku market ooo.

Zenith 15.50 now....let's see if it will retest 15 or sub 15....
FCMB's MM is doing great job.......let's see how far they can go with this defence.....

Japaulians E Ku market o.

Someone was told to buy Zee here, hope you know what you're buying into, it's very important.
You can be picking at strategic junctions if you have spare funds, if you don't have just exercise patience.
.......next junction should be 15.25......if it keeps digging lower....

A company should be able to use its own inflow. However there could be problem if Items of import

are not included in HS code allowable for import by custom. Custom would deny the importation.

robobo:


so y cant he sell hin own money to hinself via d window naaa (even in NSE cross deal is allowed / done)

sellydion:
A company should be able to use its own inflow. However there could be problem if Items of import

are not included in HS code allowable for import by custom. Custom would deny the importation.

stcool:

meanwhile I loaded my last unit of Sterling at N1.25 moving unto Flourmills ahead of FY end

Bros, allow FMN find it's bottom before you start loading, you can't keep averaging down all of them.
Some holders may come panic-selling out of uncertainty of what the result might bring, you can then start keying-in if you've done your own home work well.
Just my opinion.

True.. All the FA can't be done in isolation, the economy provides context that can't be overlooked.

GonFreecss1:


You have said it all perfectly sir.

In Nigeria you can’t only be looking at Financial statements. Studying the economics of it all, is a must.

Mcy56:

Bros, allow FMN find it's bottom before you start loading, you can't keep averaging down all of them.
Some holders may come panic-selling out of uncertainty of what the result might bring, you can then start keying-in if you've done your own home work well.
Just my opinion.

Exactly

UBA will likely go below N6......it started already.......and this was expected even before today.
Not to create any panic, Just see it as opportunity to increase your stake, for those inside...........and opportunity to buy for those outside and eyeing it.

Caveat: I may be very wrong.
UBA is a good stock which pays dividend twice a year.

Mcy56:
E Ku market ooo.

Zenith 15.50 now....let's see if it will retest 15 or sub 15....
FCMB's MM is doing great job.......let's see how far they can go with this defence.....

I moved FCMB with just 300,000 shares from 1.9 to 1.89 . That's awesome, because of me NSE closed FCMB at 1.89. Have u ever moved d market before?

phoinix:


I moved FCMB with just 300,000 shares from 1.9 to 1.89 . That's awesome, because of me NSE closed FCMB at 1.89. Have u ever moved d market before?

Boss!

phoinix:


I moved FCMB with just 300,000 shares from 1.9 to 1.89 . That's awesome, because of me NSE closed FCMB at 1.89. Have u ever moved d market before?

clap for ur self. U just cut my money by 1kobo.

phoinix:

I moved FCMB with just 300,000 shares from 1.9 to 1.89 . That's awesome, because of me NSE closed FCMB at 1.89. Have u ever moved d market before?

Lol.
Why not wait to pick lower, or be picking gradually?
Seems you're new to the system.
Anyway, it's easy to move price nah, anybody can do that, all you needed is 100k units, the issue of stock price is another thing............bcos100k units of Japaul, is different from 100k of JB or Nestle........las las100k na 100k units....or more.

ah.. take am easy nah.... the 15.25 means termites have chopped someone else's loot...

Averaging down is even becoming exasperating ....feels like 'trying to keep afloat in deep waters when you cant swim'...

Meanwhile lets all be mindful and not be carried away by the euphoria resulting from great opportunities presented by the market. There is need to thread cautiously and weigh our risks...and consider the need to have enough liquidity to survive if things go south..

Mcy56:
Japaulians E Ku market o.

Someone was told to buy Zee here, hope you know what you're buying into, it's very important.
You can be picking at strategic junctions if you have spare funds, if you don't just exercise patience.
.......next junction should be 15.25......if it keeps digging lower....

modgba:
Stanbic IBTC Displaces Morgan Capital as Most Active Stockbroker
https://businesspost.ng/economy/stanbic-ibtc-displaces-morgan-capital-as-most-active-stockbroker/

Why won't Stanbic displace Morgan, when they just jump on the exchange and be picking stocks at any available prices.

Nsempas full Morgan nah.......and many are bargain hunters.
When bargains show face for NSE, Morgan will take its place back. Lol.

Mcy56:

Lol.
Why not wait to pick lower, or be picking gradually?
Seems you're new to the system.
Anyway, it's easy to move price nah, anybody can do that, all you needed is 100k units, the issue of stock price is another thing......100k units of Japaul, is different from 100k of JB or Nestle........las las100k na 100k units....or more.

I sold so I can buy back later. Anybody can move it but what makes it cool is that I determined the closing price for today. I made history, my bid will be quoted in the news, newspapers and on the internet.

Mpeace:
clap for ur self. U just cut my money by 1kobo.

sorry bro

zimams:
ah.. take am easy nah.... the 15.25 means termites have chopped someone else's loot...

Meanwhile lets all be mindful and not be carried away by the euphoria resulting from great opportunities presented by the market. There is need to thread cautiously and weigh our risks...and consider the need to have enough liquidity to survive if things go south..

You're very correct for the 2nd statement.

As for the 1st one, I'll say not necessarily. Some bargainers picked at 10.70, 10.85 or 11, during the March low.
Some are dividend hunters, they're comfortable with both North and South. Lol.
......except you're speaking for yourself......and you have nothing to worry about as such.......if it reverses, you can easily cover the loss. Interim div is still there too.

phoinix:


I moved FCMB with just 300,000 shares from 1.9 to 1.89 . That's awesome, because of me NSE closed FCMB at 1.89. Have u ever moved d market before?

Please move Seplat for me...

phoinix:
I sold so I can buy back later. Anybody can move it but what makes it cool is that I determined the closing price for today. I made history, my bid will be quoted in the news, newspapers and on the internet.

LMAO.
That's very cool. I first thought you bought. You did well.
Maybe your name will enter NSE book of records too.

wuwu2:
Quick one please,....what happens when one cancels a partially filled sell order

The ones that were not filled won't be sold. It's that simple. You'd see the money equivalent of the filled ones in your trading account after reconciliation at the close of market.