A breakdown of the revenue of different coys and how their cost line impacted earnings delivery.

Pertinent questions;
1) What companies were (more) efficient at optimizing cost? (an offshoot of better CIR and improved AsY)
2) What companies were better at earnings delivery? (ref: higher NPM, ROIC/ROCE, CROIC, CCC, CGPM etc)

A focus on the banking sector and any Jack will clearly see the logicality in choosing GTB ahead of ZENITH and UBA ahead of ACCESS at present. (portfolio weighting in view)

ZENITH amassed over 87.9% more RM (revenue margin) than GTB, yet GT delivered over 1,020bps in NPM than it.
Similarly, ACCESS amassed near 78% more RM than UBA, yet UBA delivered about 1,132 bps in NPM than it.
...a clear indication of their efficiency at utilizing less capital to deliver more!

Notice the wide margin btw UBA & ACCESS. ...even more than that btw GTB & ZENITH.
Again, notice the slight difference in key VPDs (NPM, CGPM, JPBG, CBR/CRM, AsY/AsQ etc) btw ZENITH and UBA.
UBA is doing something right!

GTB has the highest NPM. ...a clear indication of her prudence, efficiency and moat-like position at delivering higher value among the key banking names.

There's something STANBIC is also doing right!
The lenders NPM is only battered by that of GTB despite having the least RM therein. (just approx 1/5 that of ACCESS)

It is not surprising that UBA, GTB and STANBIC currently has the best well diversified and effectively assigned loan & investment driven portfolios amongst DBMs.
The EM and EFIR weighting (a make-up of FL) of those 3 is yet another solid reason we prefer them ahead of their peers.

Inference: GTB, STANBIC & UBA in that order were miles more efficient amongst the top banking names.
Little wonder why they have a better AsY/AsQ in view of key VPDs and EDs in their financial print.
ZENITH and particularly ACCESS performed below par.

I love those 3 in bold but am especially fond of the last name (UBA) in view of its CMP.

A similar analysis on other (tier 2) DBMs and one can easily peg FIDELITY, STERLING BANK and FCMB as the 3 best placed coys on value accretive stance from LtR in that order.
But then again, I have a much higher preference for STERLING BANK in view of its CMP.

It's only but a matter of time before UBA and STERLING BANK reprises to reduce the wide margin of disconnect btw their CMP and intrinsic valuation. (RRM in view)
...just a matter of time!

We have said this much in the past.

CAVEAT: The need for due diligence should still take higher precedence ahead of this post. Due diligence still applies as always.

So UBA is a first tier bank

omoobaadeNGR:
I'm looking for ucap at <= #9 and zenith at <= #18. Am I a dreamer?

Maybe so

Backpedal:


Maybe so

😲 Wake me up my brother 🤷.

Deep.

Good morning OGG
What is the fair price of STERLING BANK.
(quote author=onegentleguy post=123108469]A breakdown of the revenue of different coys and how their cost line impacted earnings delivery.

Pertinent questions;
1) What companies were (more) efficient at optimizing cost? (an offshoot of better CIR and improved AsY)
2) What companies were better at earnings delivery? (ref: higher NPM, ROIC/ROCE, CROIC, CCC, CGPM etc)

A focus on the banking sector and any Jack will clearly see the logicality in choosing GTB ahead of ZENITH and UBA ahead of ACCESS at present. (portfolio weighting in view)

ZENITH amassed over 87.9% more RM (revenue margin) than GTB, yet GT delivered over 1,020bps in NPM than it.
Similarly, ACCESS amassed near 78% more RM than UBA, yet UBA delivered about 1,132 bps in NPM than it.
...a clear indication of their efficiency at utilizing less capital to deliver more!

Notice the wide margin btw UBA & ACCESS. ...even more than that btw GTB & ZENITH.
Again, notice the slight difference in key VPDs (NPM, CGPM, JPBG, CBR/CRM, AsY/AsQ etc) btw ZENITH and UBA.
UBA is doing something right!

GTB has the highest NPM. ...a clear indication of her higher prudence, efficiency and moat-like position at delivering value among the key banking names.

There's something STANBIC is also doing right!
The lenders NPM is only battered by that of GTB despite having the least RM therein. (just approx 1/5 that of ACCESS)

It is not surprising that UBA, GTB and STANBIC currently has the best well diversified and effectively assigned loan & investment driven portfolios amongst DBMs.

Inference: GTB, STANBIC & UBA in that order were miles more efficient amongst the top banking names.
Little wonder why they have a better AsQ/AsY in view of key VPDs and EDs in their financial print.
ZENITH and particularly ACCESS performed below par.

I love those 3 in bold but am especially fond of the last name (UBA) in view of its CMP.

A similar analysis on other (tier 2 ) DBMs and one can easily peg FIDELITY, STERLING BANK and FCMB as the 3 best placed coys on value accretive stance from LtR in that order.
But then again, I have a much higher preference for STERLING BANK in view of its CMP.

It's only but a matter of time before UBA and STERLING BANK will reprise to reduce the wide margin of disconnect btw their CMP and intrinsic valuation. (RRM in view)
...just a matter of time!

We have said this much in the past.

CAVEAT: The need for due diligence should still take higher precedence ahead of this post. Due diligence still applies as always.[/quote]

Goodmorning OGG?
What is Fair price of STERLING Bank on your valuation parameters

omoobaadeNGR:

😲 Wake me up my brother 🤷.

Nothing is impossible in this Market, just have your money handy. When silicone Valley had issues and dumping was stilishly going on in banking stocks, UBA went low to 7.85 those buyers bought enjoyed the dividends and the price is back to 8.25 so anything can happen and it might just be in a flash so load your account with your idle funds

MrDiligence:


Please sir, what other companies do you see potentials in the future just as you saw in multiverse and transcorp? Many thanks

Sir, investors have different goals and objectives. I consider myself a middle class Nigerian, with access to service that offer me free cash flow that No Government in this Nigeria can ever taxed directly.
My risk drive is driven by this heavenly grace which promotes my goals and objectives.
In order word, I based my risk on fundamental aspect of Nigeria economy.
I do not run after the performance of companies based on their quoted prices on to the exchange.
For instance, The problem of power generation would one day be solved by the private sector, this is what motivate me to acquire Transcorp.
For your information, the most potential companies that can turn N1000 to N100,000 in the next 5;years regardless of the direction of Nigeria economy is Mr TRANSCORP.
Bookmark this page.
People haven't realised that the potential in Transcorp outweigh the risk.
This is how I invest my sweat and blood.
Also, Meyer and Morison could be bought with fund/s that is not going to hurt you.
Invest and invest,set target of unit accumulations for yourself.
Start with few units, buy high and low.
I remember, about 10years ago, when I was a novince investor, I contacted a Nairalander named feelamong, I pleaded to him in an email correspondence, he recommended UCAP that was trading at sub N2.00.
I started buying and buying, and in those days, you could only buy on Morgan platform by sending email request. The Morgan platform of today was not mobile compliant then, and the lady that usually reply our mails before the advent of Yemisi, once asked me what did you see in this UCAP? there are better stocks.
Fast and forward, the then 500,000 units in UCAP is still at average cost price of N3.5.
From this I can tell you confidently that there are hidden values in all Tony Elumelu governing companies that had remain static at current prices.
In other word, UBA, Africa Prudential , Transcorp, UCAP.
I'm moderately strong in these companies.
They do not make sense to fundamental and Technical analysts.
They are always greenish in my portfolio.
My portfolio is a thing of joy 2me.
Wishing you all the very best in our uncertain Nigeria economy where boys are now men, where generational wealth are being built.

eziokwunwoko:
Good morning OGG
What is the fair price of STERLING BANK.

N2.91... using an appropriate blend of valuation model, assuming a very conservative growth forecast in 2023 and attaching an appreciable measure of risk premium.
...otherwise FVE would've been N3.47. (going mild on that part in italics)

I prefer to work with the former though.

Do take care.

onegentleguy:


N2.91... using an appropriate blend of valuation model, assuming a very conservative growth forecast in 2023 and attaching an appreciable measure of risk premium.
...otherwise FVE would've been N3.47. (going mild on that part in italics)

I prefer to work with the former though.

Do take care.

To me, No bank should be trading below N3 in Nigeria, with the heavy blow of inflation on the polity .
Buying Sterling Bank at current practice is a long term reward strategy for any value investors.
Sterling time is coming. When? Time will tell.

BabsO2:


Ah Nah Billion. Better then.
And Nah Madam Buy am. Much Much Better Then

Yes.
Infact the said purchase (2,063,484,991 units) implies that she (Dr. Awele Elumelu) now holds an approx 5.067% stake in TRANSCORP... making her a key stakeholder of the coy.

I have since said that Sir TE might be up to something.

#thatdiamondintherough
#immensehiddenvalue

CAVEAT; NOT to be inferred as any sought of investment advice. ...due diligence still applies as always.

emmanuelewumi:
I have a customer who is a man of God. I gave him 33% discount because of his calling.


But the man, would still owe expecting me to write off his debts


When I stood my grounds that I wanted my money immediately, he pleaded with me to give him 2 weeks that he would pay up everything because his harvest would take place in 2 weeks time.




Excuse me, what is the relationship between harvest and payment of his debt

Oga Ewumi, please give him the two weeks he will pay even with interest by that time members would have happily paid the following;
Harvest theme unveiling sowing
Harvest Seed plucking
Harvest Family Thanksgiving
Harvest Church Units Society Levies
Harvest Brochure Lunching
Harvest Birthday Levies
Harvest Men Thanksgiving
Harvest Women Thanksgiving
Harvest Youth Thanksgiving
Harvest Children Thanksgiving
Harvest States Thanksgiving

onegentleguy:
A breakdown of the revenue of different coys and how their cost line impacted earnings delivery.

Pertinent questions;
1) What companies were (more) efficient at optimizing cost? (an offshoot of better CIR and improved AsY)
2) What companies were better at earnings delivery? (ref: higher NPM, ROIC/ROCE, CROIC, CCC, CGPM etc)

A focus on the banking sector and any Jack will clearly see the logicality in choosing GTB ahead of ZENITH and UBA ahead of ACCESS at present. (portfolio weighting in view)

ZENITH amassed over 87.9% more RM (revenue margin) than GTB, yet GT delivered over 1,020bps in NPM than it.
Similarly, ACCESS amassed near 78% more RM than UBA, yet UBA delivered about 1,132 bps in NPM than it.
...a clear indication of their efficiency at utilizing less capital to deliver more!

Notice the wide margin btw UBA & ACCESS. ...even more than that btw GTB & ZENITH.
Again, notice the slight difference in key VPDs (NPM, CGPM, JPBG, CBR/CRM, AsY/AsQ etc) btw ZENITH and UBA.
UBA is doing something right!

GTB has the highest NPM. ...a clear indication of her higher prudence, efficiency and moat-like position at delivering value among the key banking names.

There's something STANBIC is also doing right!
The lenders NPM is only battered by that of GTB despite having the least RM therein. (just approx 1/5 that of ACCESS)

It is not surprising that UBA, GTB and STANBIC currently has the best well diversified and effectively assigned loan & investment driven portfolios amongst DBMs.
The EM and EFIR weighting (a make-up of FL) of those 3 is yet another solid reason we prefer them ahead of their peers.

Inference: GTB, STANBIC & UBA in that order were miles more efficient amongst the top banking names.
Little wonder why they have a better AsY/AsQ in view of key VPDs and EDs in their financial print.
ZENITH and particularly ACCESS performed below par.

I love those 3 in bold but am especially fond of the last name (UBA) in view of its CMP.

A similar analysis on other (tier 2) DBMs and one can easily peg FIDELITY, STERLING BANK and FCMB as the 3 best placed coys on value accretive stance from LtR in that order.
But then again, I have a much higher preference for STERLING BANK in view of its CMP.

It's only but a matter of time before UBA and STERLING BANK will reprise to reduce the wide margin of disconnect btw their CMP and intrinsic valuation. (RRM in view)
...just a matter of time!

We have said this much in the past.

CAVEAT: The need for due diligence should still take higher precedence ahead of this post. Due diligence still applies as always.

@OGG
what is UBA fair value?

Mankindman:


Sir, investors have different goals and objectives. I consider myself a middle class Nigerian, with access to service that offer me free cash flow that No Government in this Nigeria can ever taxed directly.
My risk drive is driven by this heavenly grace which promotes my goals and objectives.
In order word, I based my risk on fundamental aspect of Nigeria economy.
I do not run after the performance of companies based on their quoted prices on to the exchange.
For instance, The problem of power generation would one day be solved by the private sector, this is what motivate me to acquire Transcorp.
For your information, the most potential companies that can turn N1000 to N100,000 in the next 5;years regardless of the direction of Nigeria economy is Mr TRANSCORP.
Bookmark this page.
People haven't realised that the potential in Transcorp outweigh the risk.
This is how I invest my sweat and blood.
Also, Meyer and Morison could be bought with fund/s that is not going to hurt you.
Invest and invest,set target of unit accumulations for yourself.
Start with few units, buy high and low.
I remember, about 10years ago, when I was a novince investor, I contacted a Nairalander named feelamong, I pleaded to him in an email correspondence, he recommended UCAP that was trading at sub N2.00.
I started buying and buying, and in those days, you could only buy on Morgan platform by sending email request. The Morgan platform of today was not mobile compliant then, and the lady that usually reply our mails before the advent of Yemisi, once asked me what did you see in this UCAP? there are better stocks.
Fast and forward, the then 500,000 units in UCAP is still at average cost price of N3.5.
From this I can tell you confidently that there are hidden values in all Tony Elumelu governing companies that had remain static at current prices.
In other word, UBA, Africa Prudential , Transcorp, UCAP.
I'm moderately strong in these companies.
They do not make sense to fundamental and Technical analysts.
They are always greenish in my portfolio.
My portfolio is a thing of joy 2me.
Wishing you all the very best in our uncertain Nigeria economy where boys are now men, where generational wealth are being built.

10,000% in the next 5 years? Please lets be guided when PREDICTING the future! I wonder why we did not see all these posts until recently whe Ote$ started hismanipulations.

BTW, the UCAP you used as an example only returned 450% to you and UCAP is like the only major triple+ bagger example I see on here but some how Transcorp is goin to do 10,000%.

onegentleguy:


N2.91... using an appropriate blend of valuation model, assuming a very conservative growth forecast in 2023 and attaching an appreciable measure of risk premium.
...otherwise FVE would've been N3.47. (going mild on that part in italics)

I prefer to work with the former though.

Do take care.

STNWAUME:


@OGG
what is UBA fair value?

Using the exact same line as that of STERLING BANK above, just replace that N2.91 and N3.47 FVEs with N18.6 and N21.15 respectively for UBA.

As you'd rightly expect, I prefer that N18.6 FVE.

Btw, I hope you're still aware that UBA doesn't trade in US dollar but in Naira.
Wondering if your reason for asking is driven by an intent to buy or take position, seeing that you've always been a strong advocate of the conversion of any and all Naira-backed asset to $ on many occasion in the past.
What changed?
...just kidding bro.

Regards

Ades1:


10,000% in the next 5 years? Please lets be guided when PREDICTING the future! I wonder why we did not see all these posts until recently whe Ote$ started his manipulations.

BTW, the UCAP you used as an example only returned 450% to you and UCAP is like the only major triple+ bagger example I see on here but some how Transcorp is goin to do 10,000%.

It would actually be a 9,900% return.

Now that may seem exaggerative and possibly a bit over the line, but it's not impossible.
The growth of a firm can follow an exponential pattern in an unimaginably short timeframe if and where there are the right "square pegs in square holes".

The said coy did deliver near 200% ROI within a space of just 10-11 days you remember?
Assume just 0.1% of that run rate daily, unlock true value with a proactive and efficient magt and TRANSCORP might deliver even more in <4 yrs.

It's possible he hinged his forecast on the expectations of many positive reforms and ray of hope in the power sector, but I also do understand your drive to want to call him to order.
This though is a subtle reminder that nothing is impossible in the financial mkt.


Bottom line; He may not be wrong with his assumption... neither are you!
TRANSCORP can push up to N100 in 5 yrs but it can also drop to 20k.
It can go either way. (value accretion or value erosion) ...everything is possible!

It is well

onegentleguy:


It would actually be a 9,900% return.

Now that may seem exaggerative and possibly a bit over the line, but it is not impossible.
The growth of a firm can follow exponential pattern in an unimaginably short timeframe if and where there are "square pegs in square holes".

The said coy did deliver near 200% ROI within a space of ten days you remember?
Assume just 0.1% of that rate daily and unlock true value with a proactive and efficient magt,
and TRANSCORP might deliver even more in <4 yrs.

While I understand your drive to want to call him to order, this is subtle reminder that nothing is impossible in financial mkt.

It can go either way. (value accretion or erosion) ... everything is possible!

It is well

Bros I respect you, but like I said lets be guided! At 9,900% the market cap of Transcorp will be N1.5 trillion!

Is it possible for me to become a billionaire tomorrow? Yes, very possible, but is it probable? NO!

Just because anything is possible does not mean we should be throwing imaginary numbers around

Ades1:



Bros I respect you, but like I said lets be guided! At 9,900% the market cap of Transcorp will be N1.5 trillion!

Is it possible for me to become a billionaire tomorrow? Yes, very possible, but is probable? NO!

Just because anything is possible does not mean we should be throwing imaginary numbers around

Oga with the wolves in nigeria. I can bet you if you give otadola full control of transcorp he will push it #100 and above in 5 years.That man does everything possible to remain in the dollar billionaire list

Ades1:


Bros I respect you, but like I said lets be guided! At 9,900% the market cap of Transcorp will be N1.5 trillion!

Is it possible for me to become a billionaire tomorrow? Yes, very possible, but is probable? NO!

Just because anything is possible does not mean we should be throwing imaginary numbers around

Not sure you got the message from my post.
Am not saying you're wrong neither did I say he was wrong.

The tendency to exaggerate is often driven by expectations and backed by faith, hope or sometimes overconfidence. But where such expectation is perceived to be measurable or estimable, there is a probability of occurrence- however slim. (even if its just 0.01)

There's a reason the pricing of an asset is to a large extent determined by how investors interpret potential future cash flows and less about real value.
...otherwise many coys in the NGX would be trading for far more and others for much less.
Ever wondered why GEREGU is selling for near 4x its EDP at present?

As I said before; It's possible he hinged his forecast on the expectation of some positive reforms and ray of hope in the power sector, so that (or perhaps something else) could've been his yardstick for measurement.
You on the hand may have a different opinion/view.
TRANSCORP can push up to N100, N250 or more in 5 yrs but it can also drop to N1, 20k or even 0.1k in that time.
I just want to accord a good measure of respect to his opinion as I would to yours... because in the financial mkt everything is possible!

Oftentimes, the mkt is no "respecter" of balance and/or fairness. Things can sometimes "go overboard or below the line"... again, implying that everything is possible!

If you can, pls find time to view these 3 movies/documentaries;

Capitalism- A Love Story
The China Hustle
Something Ventured

It might seem tricky to establish a connection to the subject discuss but am sure you'll find the link in between, especially after watching them twice.

Regards

Streetinvestor2:
Oga with the wolves in nigeria. I can bet you if you give otadola full control of transcorp he will push it #100 and above in 5 years.That man does everything possible to remain in the dollar billionaire list

As outrageous as this sounds, this is still less than 4,000% return lol.

10,000% no be beans! 100 billion naira companies don't just grow 10,000% in 5 years!!

aremso:


Nothing is impossible in this Market, just have your money handy. When silicone Valley had issues and dumping was stilishly going on in banking stocks, UBA went low to 7.85 those buyers bought enjoyed the dividends and the price is back to 8.25 so anything can happen and it might just be in a flash so load your account with your idle funds

Of course, I have been sharpening my sword for the mission, hoping the target is reached soon. Just wanted external opinions. Thanks bro 👍.

DeRuggedProf:


Where she dey when the stock was trading between 69kobo and N1 for a very long time? Tony shall. God bless Ote$. I pray he should not forgive Tony. In Nigeria, only when big men get issues to settle that the poor suffering masses are remembered...

I agree it’s no trifling matter.

onegentleguy:




Using the exact same line as that of STERLING BANK above, just replace that N2.91 and N3.47 FVEs with N18.6 and N21.15 respectively for UBA.

As you'd rightly expect, I prefer that N18.6 FVE though.

Btw, I hope you're still aware that UBA doesn't trade in US dollar but in Naira.
Wondering if your reason for asking is driven by an intent to buy or take position, seeing that you've always been a strong advocate of the conversion of any and all Naira-backed asset to $ on many occasion in the past.
What changed?
...just kidding bro.

Regards

You are right ,
We saw the mismanagement of the current regine and strongly advocated for conversion of Naira to USD when exchange rate was still at sub #400

Now that dollar hovers around #750 and there will be change of govt in no distance time It won't be a bad idea to reconvert some USD and take position in NSE.

omoobaadeNGR:
I'm looking for ucap at <= #9 and zenith at <= #18. Am I a dreamer?

No. The prices can come down to that level before September this year.

kolaish:
No. The prices can come down to that level before September this year.

We wait for them there 🤗.

Ades1:



Bros I respect you, but like I said lets be guided! At 9,900% the market cap of Transcorp will be N1.5 trillion!

Is it possible for me to become a billionaire tomorrow? Yes, very possible, but is it probable? NO!

Just because anything is possible does not mean we should be throwing imaginary numbers around

Your figures are modest. Ote$ puts it at N2trillion. Why did he push out those figures though?

Its the audited report we dey wait for o.

Mfunkynation:

but where is their fy 2022 results

Zagee:


Your figures are modest. Ote$ puts it at N2trillion. Why did he push out those figures though?

If he thinks it is worth 2 trillion why did he offer to buy at 250B?? Believe these vultures at your own risk

Ades1:



If he thinks it is worth 2 trillion why did he offer to buy at 250B?? Believe these vultures at your own risk

For a company with a market cap currently at 40billion, 250 is a fair deal.

Ades1:
If he thinks it is worth 2 trillion why did he offer to buy at 250B?? Believe these vultures at your own risk

Ote$ and TE - different wings, same bird #Vultures.Sadly the fuqery will continue.

yMcy56:


These thoughts though!!
Is there anything wrong in asking or giving for God's work?
These ogas sha. At least he didn't direct it to you in particular. Like say una dey give before.
Maybe na same thoughts Agba has.

He made a post on a platform and it doesn't have to be directed to me before I will respond.

You dey inside my pocket to know say I no dey give before? What inputs does he have in that man's investment to be looking for partnership?

Those that booked looses, has he gone to partner with them to alleviate their losses?