₦airaland Forum

ElSudani:
This is pandering to sectional interests. What you are saying is not good for the unity of the country. How did you get to the conclusion that Christians are his prospective voters? Is he a Christian or religious leader?
Is this election even about religion? So much from people who wants to make Nigeria better.

What are you even saying? We are talking about avenue to reach prospective voters and you're talking about sectionalism here? You claim LP and Obi is not known in the north, yet you want to stop, them from getting wider reach because of you selfish interest. When you use money and diverse ways to mobilize people to your campaigns and laugh at LP for not having money bag like your party, you don't mention anything sectional. What's wrong in one utilizing available avenue to reach prospective votes. When Tinubu convened northerns and Moslems in Lagos and campaigned, you never mentioned anything like sectionalism, you call it politics. But your hypocritic nature will call anything Obi and LP does sectional.

You mean the Grand Looter of the Federal Republic?

OK, he will do well as the President of Looters Union.

Very true... Peter Obi attending that convention or 'taru' as they normally called here in the north, as Christians from different LGAs in Adamawa will be in attendance and there lies his prospective voters. I was even expecting him to attend those that were held in Taraba and Gombe in November last year. I expected the party's Women leader to suggest that to him, given that she's from Southern Gombe and knows the gains on such visitation. Obi attending such conventions will cheaply and organically create wider awareness and reach wider prospective voters.

Mazisimonekpa:
No election in Biafraland

Mazi Simon Ekpa

You're an idiot. Ezi

You try

Legacy of poverty, hunger and starvation.

Mazisimonekpa:
what you don't know is bigger than you

Mazi Simon Ekpa

The only thing I know is that you're killing indigenous Igbos and running down their businesses and source of livelihood. I was in the East last November, people there couldn't stop recounting how your wicked activities are adversely destroying their lives and source of livelihood. And it's an open secret that you collaborate with some unscrupulous politicians to destroy SE and make it be in crises. Which freedom fighter would want to inflict pain on his people? Isn't obvious that the Federal government don't care about what you're doing in the SE? How does your wicked activities in SE translate to freedom? Are you aware that you and your activities are the reason SEasterner don't care about Biafra any more? If you're truly Simon Ekpa, you're very heartless and you will never go unpunished, for the innocent Igbos you've killed and for the businesses you've destroy. Don't ever think of visiting SE, Ohaukwu especially, even if the federal government pardons you, because that will be your end

Mazisimonekpa:
Biafra is a divine project. No man shall stop it.



Mazi Simon Ekpa

There's nothing divine about killing you claim to be fighting for and destroying their source of livelihood.

Mazisimonekpa:
BIAFRA REJECTING NIGERIA THROUGH CIVIL DISOBEDIENCE THIS IS ENUGU TODAY 24.1.2023.
Those calling for Simon Ekpa’s head, Biafrans are not with you.

BIAFRA REJECTING NIGERIA THROUGH CIVIL DISOBEDIENCE THIS IS ENUGU TODAY 24.1.2023.
Those calling for Simon Ekpa’s head, Biafrans are not with you. pic.twitter.com/3A15rHetHm

— Simon Ekpa (@simon_ekpa) January 24, 2023

You're a shameless fool. Come back to Ohaukwu if you're not stoned to death.

walefresh3:
Why the long episode over the obvious Truth ?... Tinubu on sick bed is better than that padorama bigoted lieing nyamiri aspirant call obi...That's just the fact...

I wish u know dis before casting your vote to that failure....

Tinubu look unattractive but came well prepared for the job than that talkertive decieving GUILIBLE zombidients like u....

The real educated nigeria youths know the truth and dey are going to stand by it..

Wait , I do you expect me to support a candidate had already knew 8s going to fail and use the opportunity to empower ipob ( weaponized them )...
Some factions of ipob are supporting obi... In fact dey are SYSTEMATICALLY the major sponsorer...

Write it down... Obi will fail as a president... He has nothing to offer.. that's why he is contradicting is own policies...

Vote him at your own peril...

I and other reasonable nigerians reject him...

It's now obvious you're an inconsequential idiot. I'm done replying you.

SamuelAnyawu:
Chai

Well I'm only concerned about Senator Samuel Anyanwu for Governor Imo state

Better for you.

SanctifiedSista:
No one followed..hurting my feeling

Are you been baptized with fire 🔥?

mrvitalis:
Yea watched his interview with that APC guy ? The APC guy looked so intimidated

Isaac Balami is a very intelligent young man.

mrvitalis:
Yea she is from Kaduna ,

most of people of inner circle in this campaign is from the north ...there is another one from borno

He left his company largest aviation maintenance company in west Africa to join the campaign

How obi finds them I don't know ,

That's Isaac Balami from Biu, Borno State.

Nigeriafirstlad:
You mean she's from north

Nice!

She's from Kafanchan.

Ehya... Rejected, very pathetic.
When you're served hot breakfast
Sorry o... Kpele.

Peter Obi is doing well.

Katsina sai Obi!
Sai Mai gaskiya!
Sai Mai kwarewa
Sai Mai Iyawa
Sai Mai Adalci
Sai Mai mutumci

Bakatsine oyoyo!

Tinubu has already lost

Way to go...
Peter Obi will win.

sapele914:
Do they have presidential candidates?

I don't respond to inconsequential urchins.

CoronaVirusRelo:
🥲🤣😂🤣😂😅

National Conscience Party (NCP) and Nigeria Presidential Project (NPP). 🤣😂🤣


Powerful party indeed!

They are not powerful, yet Tinubu was wooing them to collapse structure and support him? Wow!

We will shock them

Please give us Peter Obi.

Sai ObiDatti
Sai Mai Mutumci

BluntTheApostle:
Tinubu can get 25% in every state where Obi can get 25% (aside some SE states).

Ok. February 25 will soon be here.

FatherOfJesus:
i know about the 25% acceptance.
And yes, he can. He will get 25% in Kaduna, Taraba, Nasarawa, plateau, Abuja, Kogi, benue, Niger.

Include Adamawa

Grand Looter of the Federal Republic

PassingShot:
Na here we go dey dey mop una tears on February 25th.

Na you go shed tears on February 25. Mark today's date.

Mainmanpadi:
Ai kune kuke kokarin tilastamana da mu zabi wanda bai cancanta ba. Ku zabi naku muma mu zabi namu daga karshe dai mutum daya ne zaiyi nasara

Kashe maganata, ba ni da lokaci ga ƴan uwa marasa alhaki.

PassingShot:
"If wishes were horses, beggars would ride". Also, it is often said that the worst form of deceit is self deceit. In about 32 days from today, reality will dawn on supporters of paper-weight politicians and they will realize that social media presence or noise does not take anyone to Aso Rock.

Even if you disagree with my political views, the fact that I have done this to near perfection in two previous presidential elections (2015 https://www.nairaland.com/2059493/2015-presidential-election-more-objective and 2019 https://www.nairaland.com/4957446/2019-presidential-election-prediction-analysis) deserves some respect. So, I will expect you to reign in your emotions while responding to this thread.

For this year's presidential election slated for February 25th, I have taken the time to diligently predict the outcome of the election. Unlike in the two previous predictions where only the two front runners were seriously considered, I have expanded this year's to four to include Obi's LP and Kwankwaso's NNPP, not because they have a chance of winning it but to massage the ego of supporters of LP's candidate and also to recognize the significant presence of Kwankwaso in some northern states.

This year's projection takes the following factors into consideration:

1. Political Structure: If there is any group of people that hates to hear this term, it is supporters of LP/Obi. Unfortunately for them, no one can win a state or national election without political structure. It is political structure that ensures that you are represented in places that matter. It is structure that makes you have a polling agent in every polling unit across the country. While APC and PDP can boast of this very important factor, LP and NNPP cannot.

2. State Dominance (number of states presently governed by a party): This is closely related to structure but it is much more. A party has a very good chance of wining the presidential election in the state it controls. Even when such party does not win it, it will have a strong showing in the election there. As of today, APC controls 21 of the 36 states of the federation while PDP controls 14 and APGA has 1. This will surely have a significant influence in the presidential election.

3. Strength/Unity of Opposition: Anyone who has followed politics long enough will easily understand that wrestling power from a ruling party at state or federal level requires a strong and united opposition. It was the absence of united opposition that made PDP rule for 16 years despite all their failings of those years. The opposition could not dislodge PDP until they came together to form what is now known as APC which is the ruling party of today. I strongly believe that for APC to lose this election or any future one nationally, it would require all of today's major opposition parties to fuse into one led by credible and trust-worthy leaders in the mould of Buhari (hate him as much as you like, most Nigerians still trust him) and Tinubu (despite your dislike of him, he remains a master strategist). Sadly for the opposition, they have become more fractionalized/fragmented like never before, now splitting their votes of 2019 into LP, NNPP and PDP. Even within PDP, they are further split into G5 that is doing everything possible to frustrate Atiku. It has always been an impossible mission for a fractionalized opposition to dislodges the ruling party, anywhere in the world.

4. Pulse of the Nation: Apart from those who are registered members of PDP and those who are very bitter about the prospect of Tinubu's presidency, majority of Nigerians are in agreement that the presidency should return to the southern part of the country after Buhari's eight years. This is the only sensible thing to do to keep Nigeria one and it is the major reason that the APC governors of northern extraction stood by BAT during the primaries in deference to Ahmed Lawan who was said to have been promoted by some cabal.

5. Strategic Campaining and Political Alignment/Realignment: We have seen how the parties have faired so far with their campaigns. It is self delusion for anyone to think that attendance at campaigns does not count for much in the election. A party that struggles to fill a 5,000 capcity venue cannot expect the same electoral outcome as one that fills 50,000 capacity venues effortlessly in most states of the country, especially in the north where the bulk of the votes are situated. To think otherwise is foolery and delusion. It is APC that has pulled most crowds at their rallies, followed by PDP. It is APC that has held meetings with strategic unions, organizations, captains of industries, etc, than any other party. All of this will not count for nothing during the election.

6. The G5 Factor: Like I stated earlier, the G5 led by Wike of Rivers is a faction in PDP. While I do not believe that their alliance with any of the other candidtaes (outside Atiku) will have a significance impact on the election, remaining neutral or uncommited to Atiku's candidacy boosts Tinubu's chances even more and gives more votes to Obi and possibly Kwankwaso.

NOTE 1: For 2023, I have added 5% to 2019's voters turnout across all states of the federation except the SE region and Lagos where I have added 10% to reflect the social media buzz and enthusiasm of our brothers/sisters from across the River Niger.

Note 2: This prediction/analysis may later be updated if there are major developments that can have significant effects on the election.

A nonentity is also making predictions and analysis. indeed if wishes were horses, a nonentity would ride.

Mainmanpadi:
In kai da iyalanka da sauran yan Arewa masu hankali zasu zabi Obi to mu da bamu da hankalin bazamu zabi shi ba. Sannan karka manta mu marasa hankalin mukafi yawa sannan muna da katin zabe. Ai damu zabi inyamuri irin peter Obi gwanda mu zabi Sowore

Malam, ba matsala, za ka iya ci gaba da zaben duk wanda ka zaba, dimokuradiyya ce, kuri’a daya ce ka samu. Ba za ku iya tilasta wa wasu su bi hanyar ku ba. Amma ni da iyalina da sauran ’yan Arewa masu hankali, za mu zabi Peter Obi.

Obi is winning.