pumping777:

Will 10 units be sufficient to qualify for substantial rights? I thought allocation will be proportional to holding or is this in anticipation of investors that don't take up their rights?

I don't need to qualify for substantial rights. Once I get the prospectus, I can apply for more than my alloted rights. Don't forget that multitudes will not even apply for the righst because they will not get the propsectus. So I will be alloted the rights of such people.

HayWhzl:

hi guys can some one sheer more light on the IBTC and peterside cashing out, more light please.
@iwerebor
whats up wit ECOBANK, lite it up please.
have been considering TRANSCORP but this issue with the Federal Government is giving me concern. can i still get on the train , thanks in anticipation of a good answer

Nothing is wrong with ECOBANK. They are just over valued. But with ETI providing strong backing, the price is holding steady. Ecobank has one of the highest PE's on the NSE

@iwerebor
whats up wit ECOBANK, lite it up please.

Same issue as WEMA.

Ecobank is busy acquiring liabilities in the name of cherry picking and might end up being acquired themselves.

@iwerebor
whats up wit ECOBANK, lite it up please.

Same issue as WEMA.

just saw that Unic is recomended for a buy in the valuation section of nigeriansecurities.com. Pls gurus is there something coming up there?

thanks
P.S
my questions above remain unanswered!

krisbobo:

just saw that Unic is recomended for a buy in the valuation section of nigeriansecurities.com. Please gurus is there something coming up there?

thanks
P.S
my questions above remain unanswered!

@Krisbobo,

Be wary of all these sites, you have to consider the reason behind the buy recommendation.

I think your personal investment objective should override any website recommendation.


Research the figures behind UNIC and compare with other quoted insurance companies.

Remember, Insurance companies have alot of skeletons in their cupboards so shine your eye well and be aware of the risks before committing money to it.

my country people, please anyone with any news about globe reinsurance private placement. please help a sis in need. i pray i havent burnt my fingers on that one

Well, Globe Re did a private placement last year which was unsuccessful. Hence they could not meet the recapitalisation requirement. Because of this, they went to enter into a merger agreement with Nigerian Re owned by Jimoh Ibrahim. With the issue with the insurance recapitalisation, Globe Re decided to market the 'closed' private placement all over again. WIth the money they now have, they want to cancel the merger arrangement beause they believe they sell themself short. In the interim, Globe Re MD was appointed NAICOM commissioner which made Jimoh Ibrahim to scream blue murder.

Technically, Globe Re died on Feb 28, 2007. So you may have bought a dead company!!!!!

However, it is possible that they will work out an arrangement with Jimoh Ibrahim.

Wema closed today at 9.57 with only 21m sales. The amount on offer was much more than that. So another free fall expected tomorrow.

IBTC seems to ahve bottomed out. Hopefully an interim result will lift the price.

GTB 6montsh result is due. Expecting it in a couple of days.

i saw some Wema result publication on the guardian yesterday,pls was that the result?and how good is it.

Iwerebor,

I think if nothing, one of the things we have learnt from the usefull  non-condescending contributions so far before you joined, is that anlyst opinions and buy recommendations are theirs and not necessarily ours. For a lot of us here, we use it as a pointer as to what we may look out in the future and not the absolute fact in making a decision.  This forum  provides us the opportunity to table such recommendations determine the merit  from usefull contributions and then go again to indivually do due dilligece before making the decision. I don t hink there is any resource out there including my brokers and IBTC reports that i follow well that does not warn you about the the objectivity of their buy and sell recommendations. By the way IBTC which i use has WEMA as a Buy buy, as at their last posting. I will not call them or sue them for such if i bought WEMA as a result of that ssuming i lacked the ability to make my own buy decision.

Please dont call people names here because the internet obscures your identity.

If you really have to be negative and i understand that some people cant resist the urge to be jerks. !Find the jerksconsortium blog!

FOR MY PEOPLE WITH WEMA

For people who have WEMA. In the short term it may look bad now, but you have a stock with good forward earnings potentials and it can only drop so low. If i were u i will not get out now but reduce my exposure by buying more when it bottoms out to reduce my exposure. The market will reprice it in a short while now that the bad loans and the liabilities on their books are largerly gone (subject to confirmation).

The key is not to panic, this seemingly short term mistake might turn out to be a medium to long term bumper harvest

Please don't call people names [/b]here because the internet obscures your identity.

If you really have to be negative and i understand that some people can't resist the urge to be [b]jerks. !Find the [b]jerksconsortium [/b]blog!

I have offered an apology already. I believe you missed it.
I advice you to practice your own doctrine. Thank you.

dollarmani:

Iwerebor,

I think if nothing, one of the things we have learnt from the usefull  non-condescending contributions so far before you joined, is that anlyst opinions and buy recommendations are theirs and not necessarily ours. For a lot of us here, we use it as a pointer as to what we may look out in the future and not the absolute fact in making a decision.  This forum  provides us the opportunity to table such recommendations determine the merit  from usefull contributions and then go again to indivually do due dilligece before making the decision. I don t hink there is any resource out there including my brokers and IBTC reports that i follow well that does not warn you about the the objectivity of their buy and sell recommendations. By the way IBTC which i use has WEMA as a Buy buy, as at their last posting. I will not call them or sue them for such if i bought WEMA as a result of that ssuming i lacked the ability to make my own buy decision.

Please don't call people names here because the internet obscures your identity.

If you really have to be negative and i understand that some people can't resist the urge to be jerks. !Find the jerksconsortium blog!

FOR MY PEOPLE WITH WEMA

For people who have WEMA. In the short term it may look bad now, but you have a stock with good forward earnings potentials and it can only drop so low. If i were u i will not get out now but reduce my exposure by buying more when it bottoms out to reduce my exposure. The market will reprice it in a short while now that the bad loans and the liabilities on their books are largerly gone (subject to confirmation).

The key is not to panic, this seemingly short term mistake might turn out to be a medium to long term bumper harvest

Sayings of the wise. The fountain of wisdom you are drinking from will not run dry rather it will be replenished on a daily basis

I owe you a lot of igbosas!  You will kill another one!

Iwerebor,

i retract my statement then. I just don't like people including you been dissed particularly when the assault borders on assumptions of ignorance of another individual. I have made mistakes in learning the ropes of investing in NIgeria. I wish i had a forum like this to exchange ideas when i first started. That is why i am a bit passionate about keeping the good that is happening on this this forum going on through encouraging everybody and contributing my widows mite.

You are apparently a good guy , only good guys realize theve made mistakes and apolgise.

Lets continue to empower one another.

What do you think about dangote considering that it is cheap compared to its peers in the Fodds and beverage sector and their plan to both double capacity in the coming months and open up factories in the coming fiscal year in Angola and Ghana?

WEMA PART 1 AND 2 IS OVER
COMING SOON WEMA PART 3.
THE MISTERY CONTINUES.

krisbobo:

just saw that Unic is recomended for a buy in the valuation section of nigeriansecurities.com. Please gurus is there something coming up there?

thanks
P.S
my questions above remain unanswered!

Krisbobo

Yodiyokun is right.  Ultimately your investment decision should be based on your personal decision to buy or sell at any time.  The recommendations by analyst in this companies should only serve as a guideline. What it does for me is it reduces the lenght of time we get involved in crunching numbers.

I use IBTC reports to get a general pointer in the direction i will be looking. If nigeriansecurities keep what they are doing up, they seem to be a good source. What i used to do before which they seem to have taken care of for me is the detrmination of forward PE ratio averages in a particular sector so i have a general idea of how the specific company i am looking at compares in its forward PE ratio to other companies in same sector.

Let me give you a particular example. Take the insurance sector for instance has displayed at the nigeriansecurities site, the average of the insurance companies  listed is 24.24. I would think this way if the industry can bid up insurance sector shares to an average of 24.24 earnings multiple (PE) and  say a cornestone ins to a PE ratio of 29.58, then a company like UNIC or crusader from thesame chart still could do some climbing if their is suddenly a positive outlook that gives the impression that they will meet or surpass the analysts projection of PAT at their next financial year end (This is cos they have the lowest earnings multiple based on projections so far and could get bid up to 24 the avaerage).



e.g

UNIC today is N2.47    PE = 15.59
The question is for it to trade even at that  average PE of 24.24

PE of 15.59         is equivalent to                 N2.47
PE of 1                is equiv to                         N2.47 /15.59
PE of 24.24   will therfore be equiv to         N2.47/15.59 X 24.24  = N3.84


The interpretation is that in a situation where the market follows a trend

UNIC has the potential to be bidded up to N3.80 which will result in the PE of 24.24 for UNIC , which is also the sector avarage


This approach applies to any stock in any sector in determining when to buy and when to sell. I try to pick shares that are not priced well which is what this application of the PE ratios help u to detrmine.

You will now take this information and determine together with other factors such as what we talk about in this forum, news etc to determine if this is a buy or not.  


For a better understanding of the PE ratio and its applications, i have another posting i had written asometime back on this thread it

I hope this helps you to understand how to use analyst reports better

DOLLARMANI,

Do you think its advisable for anyone to buy into the insurance sector now?.

I have interest in the following companies:

1.Mbenefit 2.Crusader 3. Law Union and Rock 4. AIICO 5.Cornerstone 6. Niger Ins. and 7. Unic.

What do you have to say as regards the performance of these coys and based on their EPS AND PE, is there any hope that one could make returns from these?.


Peace.

sorry duplicate

@Tonyjon
Where in Canada are you?

tonyjon:

DOLLARMANI,

Do you think its advisable for anyone to buy into the insurance sector now?.

I have interest in the following companies:

1.Mbenefit 2.Crusader 3. Law Union and Rock 4. AIICO 5.Cornerstone 6. Niger Ins. and 7. Unic.

What do you have to say as regards the performance of these coys and based on their EPS AND PE, is there any hope that one could make returns from these?.


Peace.

As per your question, if you have a time frame of 18 months to 2 years, you are almost sure of good returns on the insurance companies you mentioned.

But the point is, during that time frame could you have multiplied your investment better.

The way things are with Wema, I would advise us to be cautious with this insurance people, because of all this their merger arrangements that are hidden under the table.

If you are doing Insurance, pick one or 2, stick with fundamentals and do not invest a significant portion of your portfolio in them.

The truth is it all depends on your investment objective and outlook.

My 2 CAD

Thanks dollarmani,
I also try to find out who owns the company, and what they do. Dr. Shonekan through his managers Volker securities owns a good part of UNIC they are into health insurance majorly meaning that they would grow well (make profit) if they can make us Nigerians get more health insurance conscious like in the Uk etc.  Aside from that they would be along term investment because Nigeria is heading that way ultimately.
However insurance coys holding many oil coy accounts WAPIC for instance are good as oil coys pay good premuims what i dont understand is why they are not performing too well,
Hope this helps

Iwerebor and Yodi thanks for spicing up the thread.
I agree with Iwerebor folks do your homework first before issuing the buy order.
Yodi is also right, "sharp words" do pierce.
Thanks folks for still contributing

yodiyokun:

@Tonyjon
Where in Canada are you?

As per your question, if you have a time frame of 18 months to 2 years, you are almost sure of good returns on the insurance companies you mentioned.

But the point is, during that time frame could you have multiplied your investment better.

The way things are with Wema, I would advise us to be cautious with this insurance people, because of all this their merger arrangements that are hidden under the table.

If you are doing Insurance, pick one or 2, stick with fundamentals and do not invest a significant portion of your portfolio in them.

The truth is it all depends on your investment objective and outlook.

My 2 CAD

Some of them are great bargains if you are in for the long term. The insurance sector stocks will be trading in the future at prices over 10 naira. We have seen an upward trend with the banking sector as capitalization was moved from level to level. The value investing approach is what i am most comfortable with which is finding what is dirt cheap compared to peers and buying while waiting for the market to correct itself. I have been able to reduce my burn rate to almost nothing with this approach together with other considerations such as liquidity and corporate governance.

As regards the list , Unic and crusader are the cheapest at todays prices going by forward projections of what there PAT will be and consequently their earnings multiple. However consider this in light of other things such as ensuring no shocker such as intended payouts are not sitiing on theri books. I go to the extent atimes doing a sampling atimes of major conglomerates as to who has the bulk of their insurance business.

in summary , chaotic situations as the case may be might provide the opportunity to buy. i personally like to buy when the market seems to be dumping.

tonyjon:

DOLLARMANI,
Do you think its advisable for anyone to buy into the insurance sector now?.
I have interest in the following companies:
1.Mbenefit 2.Crusader 3. Law Union and Rock 4. AIICO 5.Cornerstone 6. Niger Ins. and 7. Unic.
What do you have to say as regards the performance of these coys and based on their EPS AND PE, is there any hope that one could make returns from these?.
Peace.

The 1st 3 on your list are the 1st 3 on my list.   Those 3 all have forward PEs below 16. not bad at all.

I know you must be tired of Wema by now but this punch article may interest you.

I'm not selling.

@Yodiyokun,

Thank you very much for your advise. I live in Toronto, Ontario.

Peace.

easimoni:

The 1st 3 on your list are the 1st 3 on my list. Those 3 all have forward PEs below 16. not bad at all.

Hey Easimoni

By my own calculations unic and and crusader 2 and 7 have the lowest calculations. This is further coroborated by IBTC's calculation of UNIC and www.nigeriansecurities.com calculation for Both. What numbers are u using for instance for mbenefit, crusader law union (ur 3)which brings their PE ratio under 16?

easimoni:

I know you must be tired of Wema by now but this punch article may interest you.

I'm not selling.

Thanks for the info. We cant be tired. Im just trying to decide (like many others) so we need all the info. I just got Wema at 10.80 few days bak.

@easi what price did u enter averagely. Im thinking of exiting now to enter at a lower price.What do you think. Other opinions welcome.If what they ve said in this article is anything to go by, Wema will be worth it going forward.

I'm disappointed with the MD .Why will he say they have"haywire results " when he knew they were going to write off risk asssets. Any way He s tried, in clearing these bad loans(80% of them) during his two yrs at the saddle and they seem set for a good future.
The lower the more attractive it gets
Imagine Tunde Lemo who was MD during the time some of these loans were awarded now Director of Banking supervision at CBN. What a paradox?

easimoni,

i see that you are right. I think the guys on nigeriansecurities just did some update on their valuation page. It confirms your own calculations.

Infact they just brought AIICO into my radar. PE of less than 10!!!. I have confirmed that their profit last year was 483,702,000 as reflected on that site. IS their shares outstanding truly 1.7 bill? becasue it is the bases nigeriansecurities have calculated PE and a projected PAT of 512,000,000 which is conservative in my opinion. If it is then aiico looks sweet

I think with their merger with NFI and LAMAK they should be close to 1 billion this year. THose guys are been very conservative in their Projected PAT

Check this out and tell me what u thinkWhat do you think.

ECOBANK NIGERIA PLC

UNAUDITED Q-3 RESULTS FOR THE PERIOD ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2007
PERIOD 2007 2006 ABSOLUTE CHANGE %CHANGE
GROSS EARNINGS (N'b) 22.90 11.60 11.30 97.4%
PBT (N'm) 7.50 4.00 3.50 87.5%
TAXATION (N'm) 2.40 1.30 1.10 84.6%
PAT (N'm) 5.10 2.70 2.40 88.9%
* Means Decrease & * Means Increase
Net Profit Margin 22.27% 23.28% -1.0%

Projected PE remains around 25.5.

@ dollarmani,
AIICO is an enigma to me. I've seen them list addtional shares a few times in the last 3 years that I'm not sure what the true number of oustanding shares is. Also, the PAT seems to bounce up and down, no discernable trend. Makes me nervous about projecting. I'm already holding one unpredictable security (take a wild guess), I'm only buying ones with consistent trends for a while.

To ALL GURU's,

1) Pls can anyone tell me on how to Calculate and qualify for Private Placement, e.g i have 10, 000 Units of shares and they gave P.Placement of 1 for every 20 held.

2) In other to maximize profit, is it better to sell after a company has declare its Bonus and Dividend or before the declaration, because if you sell before the decleration you will not benefit from the Bonus and Dividend.

N.B:- PLS, Can someone shed more light on it for me.

To All GURU's in the HOUSE.

To All GURU's.

Can some tell me when Dangote Flour Mill (DFM) will be listed and available on the Secondary Market, cos i bought the last I.P.O of the company and i may buy more if they get listed on the Sec. Market.

Pls Guru's in the House its up to you.

Ben0524:

To ALL GURU's,

1) Please can anyone tell me on how to Calculate and qualify for Private Placement, e.g i have 10, 000 Units of shares and they gave P.Placement of 1 for every 20 held.

2) In other to maximize profit, is it better to sell after a company has declare its Bonus and Dividend or before the declaration, because if you sell before the decleration you will not benefit from the Bonus and Dividend.

N.B:- PLS, Can someone shed more light on it for me.
To All GURU's in the HOUSE.

1. You get 1 share for every 20 you have so you should divide your holdings by 20 and multiply by 1 = 500 units.
If it was 20 units for every 2 you own, you would have divided by 2 and then multiplied by 20 = 100,000 units.

2. Technically I beieve it does not really matter because the price of the stock will be marked down based on the bonus and dividend declared. So the value of the bonus and the dividend will be subtracted from the price of the stock after the register is closed.
However, some prefer to sell after the mark down so they can get some "cash" from the dividends. Some also believe that the stock price may rise slightly after the mark down. There is no proof of this as far as I can tell. In some cases you get best value selling just before mark down as we saw I think in the case of First Bank and Zenith.