Good speculating people,
Tmoni try and sell if you can b/c the price will go below 9.10 the NSE can get bearish when it wants to.  
If you do sell b4 it goes below your cost price then take the profit.  WEMA does have the ability to pick up again though like Wanaj0 I will wait till it gets close to when the next set of results will be posted b4 picking them up again.
Hope they are getting their books really clean.
Cheers

Good speculating people,
Yes oh Tmoni try and sell if you can b/c the price will go below 9.10 the NSE can get bearish when it wants to.  
If you do sell b4 it goes below your cost price then take the profit.  WEMA does have the ability to pick up again though like Wanaj0 I will wait till it gets close to when the next set of results will be posted b4 picking them up again.
Hope they are getting their books really clean.
Cheers

Tmoni:

thanks wanajo

that means, it still pays to sell even a N8 because i am with you on the price stabilising in the N6 region

even if i want to re-enter, i would be able to get more shares then

and whats the likely time frame for your hypothesis??

If you can get it to sell tomorrow which I doubt, all well and good. Everyone will basically be thinking of selling tomorrow which will not happen!

What happens from now depend on how the board/decides to manage the situation. The result presented some good news. At least they are not below the N25bn capitalisation. Secondly, they appeared to have FULLY cleaned their books so they can now start on a clean slate. They will come out for an offer but that will be next year. So the rally may not happen until Q1 depending on when they go on technical suspension.

what if i decide to ride the storm,
when do u see a diff. coming out

@ wanaj0, easimoni thanks.

So we are dealing with a trailing PE of around 40 (admiting the tax credit) or PE of around 54 (without the tax credit).

The bank needs to release a half year PAT of 4 Billion Naira or above for projected PE to become 10.2 or even less at 8 Naira. With a net operating income of over 19 Billion Naira last FY declaring half year PAT of 4 Billion this half year should not be such an uphill task.

I am keeping my eyes open on Wema. I'm selling what I have left now (if I can but not below 8 Naira) but I'm not going to give up now.

Please anyone with the details of the results? Is there anything that can still chop into the profit? If they have completely cleaned their books then I smell something good.

Dear all ,

   while Wema's result has been dissapointing , virtually everyone expects the price to go south in the coming days.However , i have a gut feeling the management of the bank actually has a STRATEGY ,which is THE BIG BATH  ,that is , they report all the bad news at once , take the hit  and later start filtering good news gradually. I dont own  a unit of wema but it will be a BUY if it falls low enough.The price upsurge of last week was probably to prepare the ground for the result , take the massive sell-off  such that the share price will not fall too low to the PRE- UPSURGE PRICE. The results are historical results and the relevant question is if WEMA can create value going forward.

 For those who have Wema , dont rush to sell if you have a reasonable margin btw your acquisition price and the market price . After the price has stabilized you may realized you have enriched your broker and the insiders ! Before you take the leap , consider this !goodluck .

bought wema for 10.5,what if i wait for the price to go down to 6 then buy more to leverage out'
pls is it wise to do so?

Do not have all the details so can only speculate. Until you have the full annual report with the statements from the Chairman and the MD.

At least, I know that the financial statement was not qualified by the auditor.

What you do from here depends on which type of investor you are and your cash situation.

Option one is to sell, cut your losses and say bye bye to WEMA. Why stick to an underperforming stock.

Option 2 is to sell and re-enter later if you believe in the long term viability of WEMA

Option 3 is to do nothing especially if you are in it for a long haul and you are not easily bothered by the daily movements.

Option 2 appears to be the most appealing to me!

hbrednic:

bought wema for 10.5,what if i wait for the price to go down to 6 then buy more to leverage out'
please is it wise to do so?

What was your entry and exit strategy when you bought?

@hbrednic

 i doubt the price will fall to  N6 , but you can average-down if you feel good about wema going forward. It depends on your timeframe and investment objective. The jury is yet to report on the results .It does not help adding to a losing position ,especially if you are in for the short term .

thanks barge, i will be issuing a sell order right away.
i only have myself to blame on this wema,should have listened long ago

just placed a threshold point of N8,
na wah ooo,
i would definately attempt to buy it at N6,
it would definately take a beating,

pumping777:

I read it is in the pipeline,

http://www.proshareng.com/myproshare/portal_news.php?id=3074

Thanks Pumping, nice one!

Tmoni:

just placed a threshold point of N8,
na wah ooo,
i would definately attempt to buy it at N6,
it would definately take a beating,

Will take a miracle for you to get it to sell. As at 10.00am this morning, over 53m shares were on offer. These increased as time went on!!!!!

All the best.

so do u advise me to just hold on?
getting worried herei am?

Tmoni:

so do u advise me to just hold on?
getting worried herei am?

Just letting you know the odds against you!!!!!!

That's why risk assessment is very important. When you buy shares in a company like WEMA, you must recognise the downside.

You also need to know that because you don't have insider information you are a bit disadvantaged. Look at it this way, account was signed in July so some are already aware of it. It came out in the papers today which means that it mut have reached the newspaper houses last Friday. Those with such information sold on Friday and today. As from tommorow, there will be a deluge of those that would like to sll. Question is who will BUY?

Well, that is the stock market for you!!!!

Tmoni:

so do u advise me to just hold on?
getting worried herei am?

Tmoni,


Is Wema Bank a large percentage of your portfolio?

Tmoni:

just placed a threshold point of N8,
na wah ooo,
i would definately attempt to buy it at N6,
it would definately take a beating,

By the way why place a threshold of N8 when the stock is trading at N10? Why don't you change your threshold daily i.e for tomorrow, place an order for N9.50; if your broker does not sell tomorrow, then change the threshold to N9.00 for Wednesday e.t.c

nope, it makes up about 9% of my portfolio
but just thinking, making a loss on this now and probably go into sth like FCMB for long term

the threshold is the minimum, i would allow the stock to be sold at
any thing above is acceptable, still working out the details

was told it might come down to N5 to N6

@Tmoni

i read from the previous page you have 400k of Wema @ average 9.10. If i were you i will divest half of it using a scale of the acquisition cost plus price.i mean THE LOWEST COST IN , THE LOWEST COST OUT , that way you can divest at the lowest loss posible to this position. Further you might think about the opportunity cost of hanging in or WAITING FOR WEMA ,the are other good offers in the primary and secondary market if you are in for the medium to long term. Further you should do a post -audit , that compute your loss, if any, and LEARN from it. That way you will be a better investor. Having said that , Wema could do well going forward ,the important question is if you are prepared to wait ,and how much do you one to keep in this stock.That's why i think you should divest half, thereby reducing your risk and freeing up funds for other opportunities. In ANY CASE , its your Call. goodluck !

thanks a lot, sounds like wanajo option 2,
the opportunity cost is the main reason why i am thinking of opting out,
thats probably the line i would be towing if i can get to sell it off

NSE--na wa ooo

any update on the ETB placement, i heard it would start in november

Tmoni,

wanaj0 option2 looks good, but I think you need to take another look at it.

1. Wema constitutes 9% of your portfolio, so you are not going burst by any means.

2. The rush to sell does not necessarily reflect the scale of the problem. People who are buying will wait until the price becomes really juicy, and that's why the net offer will keep piling up and the price keep dropping 5% as long as more and more people are selling. for some people it makes perfect sense to sell now, may be they got in at a good price.

3. Take a step back, do you think Wema can recover from this in the short term, say six months? And do you think the price can rise above what it is today eventually?

4. Also remember, they are already six months into the new account year, may be the worst is over, and the next few weeks we will have some good news from Wema which will douse the tension. Also remember, the people at Wema will know the full implication of this result and they are not going to sit down and do nothing.

So in summary, I think you can get it sold eventually, but at a big cut say 25-30%, but if next three months can reverse the trend, will you take another route? NSE,

@ SGN,
I think you present a solid analysis of the situation. I'm going to try to sell this week and buy it back in a couple of weeks if the bleeding continues. If you take away the provisions for bad loans/goodwill?, the PAT should have been close to N8.9B (~90k EPS) and if they grow profits and don't have anymore goodwill/bad loans to write-off, an EPS of N1.20 within the next 12 months is not unrealistic.

I'm seriously resisting the urge to be trigger-happy on this one.

SGN:

Tmoni,

wanaj0 option2 looks good, but I think you need to take another look at it.

1. Wema constitutes 9% of your portfolio, so you are not going burst by any means.

2. The rush to sell does not necessarily reflect the scale of the problem. People who are buying will wait until the price becomes really juicy, and that's why the net offer will keep piling up and the price keep dropping 5% as long as more and more people are selling. for some people it makes perfect sense to sell now, may be they got in at a good price.

3. Take a step back, do you think Wema can recover from this in the short term, say six months? And do you think the price can rise above what it is today eventually?

4. Also remember, they are already six months into the new account year, may be the worst is over, and the next few weeks we will have some good news from Wema which will douse the tension. Also remember, the people at Wema will know the full implication of this result and they are not going to sit down and do nothing.

So in summary, I think you can get it sold eventually, but at a big cut say 25-30%, but if next three months can reverse the trend, will you take another route? NSE,

@SGN
Nice Post.
I have some exposure to Wema. I can sell tomorrow at a profit otherwise it is downhill from there. From what I see it will be impossible to sell now anyway so by the time one sells, meaning the price is attractive enough for others to buy, the price will be on its way back up. So selling to reenter at that lower price is a win win for the Brokers. I will hold until all the details and the plans for the bank are out. If they are promising I will pick up a bit more to lower my average cost otherwise will be informed enough to sell. My profile of being a long term investor is being tested. No shaking.

my country people, pls anyone with any news about globe reinsurance private placement. pls help a sis in need. i pray i havent burnt my fingers on that one

Tmoni:

nope, it makes up about 9% of my portfolio
but just thinking, making a loss on this now and probably go into sth like FCMB for long term

the threshold is the minimum, i would allow the stock to be sold at
any thing above is acceptable, still working out the details

was told it might come down to N5 to N6

A fire or panic sale has never and will never in my opinion be the way to go.  I also have an exposure to WEMA Bank and I knew the risk I was taking when I bought the stock (my exposure is not as large as your 9% though).  For sure, a lot of people will want to get out tomorow and the day after and the day after

Yes, the results were bad, but let's put everything in perpective; the resluts were bad because of the N8.1 billion provisioning.  If the provision for bad debt was only half of that (N4 billion, which is still  a lot), would the results be bad or good?  Obviosuly, if we know that the N8billion is a one time occurence and will not repeat itself (unfortunately, we do not), then to me WEMA still look like a good stock. My experience (I live in the US now but worked in the banking industry in Niaja for like 5 years not too long ago), is that banks take these huge provisions to have a clean slate (my last bank and the one before that did the same thing) and provisions are usually lower going forward, except the loan quality of WEMA is just terrible  

To cut a long story short, I am not doing a fire sale (for now anyway).  I can survive if the price touches N4 and I will continously monitor the stock.  WEMA's first quater / second quarter results have got to be a lot better

kai una do well to purchase WEMA, all that was way too risky for me esp from over here, it'd take my brokers 2-3 days to sell, so didnt want to risk it.
I'm just so happy, received word that my UBA brokers were able to get more Costain shares for me Thursday b4 the TS. I had sent purchase order late Tuesday so wasnt sure, now I'm sitting tight because I had a whole bunch before. Matter of fact COSTAIN is now 55% of my portfolio
Already have my strategy for the bullish run post TS, plan on selling 50-60% of it, because I'll purchase big from PO anyway. Any other strategy recommendation? Thanks

my country people, please anyone with any news about globe reinsurance private placement. please help a sis in need. i pray i havent burnt my fingers on that one

but look at first inland? they had a terrible result yet they are still trading at 11 naira. i know WEMA will fall but it might not take such a beating, the market is known to be irrational on many occasions. hope we all sell soon.

It hurts to see friends here lose money on a stock that stood on a worm eaten platform.

There is an old saying about never mixing business with sentiments. You do that when you don't bother to do your own analyses. The best investment is in one's self.
If you really want to profit from the stock market, you must of necessity have two strong traits:
1.Hardwork, Research
2. Be patient, don't speculate, invest!

When you become an investor, the last thing you want to look at to make a buy decision is "PRICE". Some make buy decisions based on price movement. It isn't even good for your health to watch your holdings fluctuate so much.

Wema bank with a FY EPS of 25k has no claim on a price multiple of 20, i.e, N5, except you know for sure of something coming in the horizon. There are banks that have worked FOUR times as hard and they are selling at that multiple.

When you know what you are doing, you can actually be unconcerned with what goes on in the rowdy, noisy, crowded, moody stock market. You definitely can't think straight when your senses are bombarded with MEDIA hype.

Check out this site http://nigeriansecurities.com/valuation.phpand see how loud they were about acquiring this stock (WEMA) even when the PAT they posted for it is about as comfortable as the feeling of having an ant climb up the inside of your trousers in it's search for a bushy home.


Wema and Transcorp have something in common. If you don't know, chances are I will be condoling with you again. You lazy bones!

Iwerebor:

It hurts to see friends here lose money on a stock that stood on a worm eaten platform.

There is an old saying about never mixing business with sentiments. You do that when you don't bother to do your own analyses. The best investment is in one's self.
If you really want to profit from the stock market, you must of necessity have two strong traits:
1.Hardwork, Research
2. Be patient, don't speculate, invest!

When you become an investor, the last thing you want to look at to make a buy decision is "PRICE". Some make buy decisions based on price movement. It isn't even good for your health to watch your holdings fluctuate so much.

Wema bank with a FY EPS of 25k has no claim on a price multiple of 20, i.e, N5, except you know for sure of something coming in the horizon. There are banks that have worked FOUR times as hard and they are selling at that multiple.

When you know what you are doing, you can actually be unconcerned with what goes on in the rowdy, noisy, crowded, moody stock market. You definitely can't think straight when your senses are bombarded with MEDIA hype.

Check out this site http://nigeriansecurities.com/valuation.phpand see how loud they were about acquiring this stock (WEMA) even when the PAT they posted for it is about as comfortable as the feeling of having an ant climb up the inside of your trousers in it's search for a bushy home.


Wema and Transcorp have something in common. If you don't know, chances are I will be condoling with you again. You lazy bones!

@Iwerebor,

I am tempted - seriously tempted ! but naah I refuse to stoop so low to your level.

However, I will set the record straight.

I think the regulars on this thread will agree with me that it was noted here severally the WEMA IS RISKY BUSINESS.

It was dissected and mutilated several times over and everyone took their own stand.

For the most part, the folks here are not lazy bones - most people contribute intelligently one way or another, and I really do not think anyone here makes a buy decision on the price.

And no one here made predictions on WEMA price in the range of 20's - they wan steal am.

Finally, you do not have a right to talk to anyone here in such condescending manner, and are you telling us almighty @Iwerebor that you have not made one investment mistake in all your time on NSE.



I implore you with the mercies of God, If you have no words of wisdom, keep your foolishness to yourself.

We did not ask for your opinion!!!!

@all have I spoken well?

@Yodiyokun

Yes!!! You have.

And I am still thinking what made Iwerebor went that far.