shigidi:

@ temmie 10,
my guy which stocks are you looking at right now?? im confused and depressed because i don't seem to be able to see anything now that nigerian german has left the station.
hope work is okay sha

the market is like a bloated cow in terms of fundmamentals. those with low PEs are illiquid but might jus be worth it (betaglass).
If the market corrected a bit more, it'll be good.

But i am still looking at insurance, some exposure is healthy, maybe not a huge stake. The fact that the stocks are not nosediving says that interest is being sustained, so the mkt leaders of wapic, unic, law union but havin said that, growth may be limited this year.

Diamond and Access are not expensive but diamond's gdr is around 16.5 so i dun expect any immediate appreciation but its def good in the medium to long run. Access numbers are good which makes me wonder why its not picking yet.
I honestly think the best strategy now is to HOLD and observe interesting movements one can take advantage of. I actually think fcmb at 17.45 is not too bad, its a 20 something naira stock so its really a buy short and long term by me.

if u dun dislike pos, then u are spoilt for choice really, lotsa cheap pos out there (and i dun mean afribank), besides verification has been stopped so u dun hav to wait till jesus comes to get certs

Kenjo:

@Temmie
I am actually thinking of FCMB, and Costain rights issue, when is Costain's PO coming out?

expect costain sometime in january

@ temmie 10
thanks

@temmie thanks

I have actually placed a buy order for unic and fcmb. I now I will get back like 70% of my cash from 1st bank PO, so I might decide to go with bank PHB, Zenith or bAGCO with the proceeds, still undecided at this point. Like you said lets wait and see.

@easimoni

Na waaah oooooo, dis ya vex worry ohhhh. Please dont take it too personal. Fair enough if u wan take 1 week sabatical. I personally will miss you.

Meanwhile for other gurus not on sabatical, let get on with it. If you dont mind

@ Temmie10, Easimoni, wanaj0 and other Guru's



I need your advice, I bought Lasaco at 1.80k although it has increased more than 66% now, but with the released good result do u advice to still hang in to make 100% or just collect my change and waka?


BTW thanks to Wanaj0 and Easimoni's advice my Capoil has increased more than 530% now.

Does anyother person have any problem opening Pumping777's spreadsheet?

I have been  applying the Japanese Candlestick Charts on some few Stock and got a Long White Candlesitck for Livestock Feeds and NAHCO(buyer induced price push) and a Long Black Candlestick + Doji for GTB and Dangote Sugar (traders shold be on the alert for a potential doji morning star.ie. a Bullish trend).

Candlestick charts  provide a clear picture of price action of various stock based on the relationship between their open and close values as well as the high and low values each day. The relationship between the open and close is considered vital information to traders and forms the essence of candlesticks.They are quite useful for day-trading punters and could be applied to support a stocks fundamental analysis.

LondonCool:

I have been applying the Japanese Candlestick Charts on some few Stock and got a Long White Candlesitck for Livestock Feeds and NAHCO(buyer induced price push) and a Long Black Candlestick + Doji for GTB and Dangote Sugar (traders shold be on the alert for a potential doji morning star.ie. a Bullish trend).

Candlestick charts provide a clear picture of price action of various stock based on the relationship between their open and close values as well as the high and low values each day. The relationship between the open and close is considered vital information to traders and forms the essence of candlesticks.They are quite useful for day-trading punters and could be applied to support a stocks fundamental analysis.

Thanks. The open and close price have always been vital to me when placing orders. It's interesting to know it can be used for buy and sell signals also. Do you have a software for plotting this? If so, please share. In many cases, the closing price can be so misleading. Institutional and foreign investors tend to enter the market later in the day after judging the supply and demand situation for the day.

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@DAMOCHE07:First bank has made 15B in 2Q and they make most of their money in 3,4Q.If UBA with 20B FY can inch uP to 60naira,what will first bank with around 30B PAT @FY do? 70naira? Assuming they now get the 10B ILL loan back as an exceptional item,don't u think fisrt bank will hit the roof.An amateur analysis please

Bros, i,m not saying dis to kill ur spirit, but i dont see FBN hitting N70 after their year end, granted that they might hit about N35b PAT excluding the N10B windfall from FGN but u cant compare the EPS of both FBN anb UBA because by the time the hybrid offer of FBN is listed, FBN outstanding share will be in the
region of 20B and u no wat dat will do to the EPS, i am seeing FBN doing N58-N60 year end.cheers

[/quote][quote author=pumping777 link=topic=31554.msg1724617#msg1724617 date=1196203495]
Thanks. The open and close price have always been vital to me when placing orders. It's interesting to know it can be used for buy and sell signals also. Do you have a software for plotting this? If so, please share. In many cases, the closing price can be so misleading. Institutional and foreign investors tend to enter the market later in the day after judging the supply and demand situation for the day.

@pumping777,

I used a Charting Software owned by an ex-colleague of mine who is a Day Trader and inputed the information of some stock that I was interested in buying.

The closing price on its own does not tell the whole story but if it is analysed with the open price over a period of days then a certain trend will emerge that gives rise to a certain Candlestick pattern on the graph, Technical Analysts swear by it. The down side is that it can't explain what happens in between the open and close periods BUT it is quite a useful tool for Stock picking  once you've grasped the basic patterns.

Meanwhile BAGCO intend to use N6.26 billion from the anticipated net proceeds of N6.95 from their IPO to repy their loans. A whooping 90% of the proceeds on debt payment, and then promises to pay its shareholders a dividend of 17 kobo per share in the 2008 and 2009 financial year and a dividend of 18 kobo per share in 2010. Is this offer good value for money in the long term ? ( Due to their non -listing on the NSE I didnt have enough info to engage my Candlesticks on BAGCO)

@ pumping 777,

Please do you have any recent info on UNIC?.

Peace.

tonyjon:

@ pumping 777,

Please do you have any recent info on UNIC?.

Peace.

Only what Emmaachile shared with us recently. See below. You will find a report on UNIC.

http://www.emmaachile.itgo.com/

ETB is doing an IPO in Q1 2008

http://www.proshareng.com/myproshare/portal_news.php?id=3270

Pls does any body have any gist on international energy? Is it a good buy? Are they among the approved insurance companies? A link to the list of aspproved companies will be appreciated.

@ to all gurus in the house,
I must commend d good work, have been learning silently for sometime now. Just imagining mysef reading this thread as if am preparing 4 an exam. Anyway, it's really worth it. Let's keep it up.

Got a teacher in d house already, _{he knws himsef}.  I appreciate this thread.

@pumping
Am really challenged by ur story, am also a mechanical engr. and seriously developing mysef in stock analysis too. hope to become a guru like u guys soon _{if not better}.

tanx 4 dat spreadsheet, it's good and taking time to understand it very well, got a few questions anyway, can I have ur email, let's talk.

@All
Abeg, does anyone have a clue of what is happening to AP? What on earth is driving this price gain? Kind thanks for any tit bits.

@TEMMIE10

what do you mean by certificate verification has been stopped? l know they will be credited to the CSCS A/c direct from now on, but what about the ones l have before l got CSCS No.?

UNIC & Nigerian-German connection

Could it be that they both are doing well due to their partnership, where UNIC is doing well because of NGC's success. I'm an avid reader of William O'Neil's book on How to make money in stocks, and he mentions the "Cousin stock Theory", where if a company is doing well, to research it well, you might find a supplier company or cousin stock to also profit from.
I know there are a couple of companies like that which have been mentioned on here.

MyPeace:

@TEMMIE10

what do you mean by certificate verification has been stopped? l know they will be credited to the CSCS A/c direct from now on, but what about the ones l have before l got CSCS No.?

What that means is that according to the new directives from SEC there is no more share allotment verification which means as soon as the shares have been alloted by the issuing companies to the prospective investors the returns should just be forwarded straight to SEC/CBN and if they are satisfied they will approve the allotment and the  company registrar can start issuing certificates to the lucky ones or credit your CSCs account if you have an account with a stockbroker.

What used to happen before was that CBN and SEC has to verify and vet each single application from the issuing companies to ensure that laundered money has not found its way into the capital market(all monies are lodged with CBN in an escrow account and this takes months which is why you had to wait an average of 6 monthe before getting your certs.

A case in point  of the new directive is  FCMB hopes to complete the share allotment and cert issue by March next year so if you bought into the PO you will be on the dividend register before April which happens to be the year-end instead waiting till May/June next year which would have been the average length of time it would take to get your cert (check the prospectus if you have bought into the PO for the allotment timescale)

By year end 08 all stock holding will be dematerialized meaning there would be no more paper certificate as proof of your shareholding  so for  those stocks you hold and you dont have credited into your CSCS account(if you have one) you will need to find the company registrars for the stocks you hold and give your certs for verification after which you can ask your stockbroker(if you have one) to credit your CSCS account with these shares. I think the company registrars should be able to do this as well if they have your stockbroker details and your  CSCS CHN(this is the alphanumeric number that identifies the stockbroker to the CSCS) and  your CSCS No(your personal numeric account number with CSCS)

Roughcut, thks for your answers, but what happens if the old certificates are still not verified before 2008? l have problems verifying mine, cos of irregular signature , and l might not have chance to go to the registrars myself as requested until next year.

MyPeace:

Roughcut, thks for your answers, but what happens if the old certificates are still not verified before 2008? l have problems verifying mine, because of irregular signature , and l might not have chance to go to the registrars myself as requested until next year.

u cn still verify it next year

Capital Oil in the news

http://www.champion-newspapers.com/daily%20champion%20files/infotel%20&%20energy/article_15.htm



Infotel & Energy

Capital oil invests N2b in new vessels

Capital Oil and Gas Industries Limited has invested $18 million (about N2.28 billion) for the purchase of four vessels. This is to enhance the transportation of petroleum products from refineries belonging to the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) and reputable refineries in foreign countries.

Mr. Ifeanyi Ubah, managing director, Capital Oil Industries Limited explained that investment in the new vessels is part of the company’s plans to eliminate problems of congestion of vessels at the existing terminal of Ibru jetty and improve its leading roles in the downstream sector of the Nigerian oil and gas industry.

He noted that the company made the investment to improve the availability of petroleum products through its jetty and tank farm located at Ibafon in Lagos. "This is the first time that a Nigerian firm would acquire four vessels at a time mainly for fuel transportation regardless of challenges in the industry", he said.

Ubah explained during a prayer session in Lagos last weekend that the company is also investing in the expansion of its tank farm and jetty slated for commissioning this week to accommodate more vessels so as to fast-track the discharge of petroleum products and lifting by trucks to various locations in the country.

This, he said is capable of storing 168,000 metric tonnes (MT) of petroleum products on completion of the construction and make the company the biggest indigenous operator in the downstream sector. On completion of the new jetty, it will be capable to accommodate four vessels of 30,000 (MT) to discharge petroleum products for the tank farm.

"We have actively participated in fuel importation since the commissioning of our ultra modern mega fuel depot in March this year despite volatility in the international prices of refined products. We want to remain focused servicing our customers and maintain steady growth and improve standard of living of our workers. We are placing a lot of orders for importation of petroleum products especially diesel from Europe and facilities for the jetty", he noted.

He added that the company is also negotiating with the Lagos State government for the construction of the biggest private truck park. This, according to him is part of the company’s corporate social responsibility to bring an end to long traffic along the Mile Two- Oshodi expressway.

"The park is designed to accommodate 600 trucks from various companies to improve traffic flow and improve economic activities in Lagos State", he explained.

The company had invested N5 billion in the construction of an ultra-modern fuel tank farm at Ibafon in Lagos State. The facility commissioned early this year is designed to store 46,000 metric tones (MT) of premium motor spirit (PMS), automotive gas oil (AGO) and dual purpose kerosene (DPK).

@ Temmie10
Thank you.

MyPeace:

Roughcut, thks for your answers, but what happens if the old certificates are still not verified before 2008? l have problems verifying mine, because of irregular signature , and l might not have chance to go to the registrars myself as requested until next year.

Yep you have till end of next year to sort it out. Take your regular signature mandate with proof of your id to the registrar and they will simply void the old one and issue a new one to  you will have to pay some money i think

hi, u all,
i bought AP shares in 2004 at abt #72 with the firm belief (on reliable information) that it will pick up and do very well in the short term
but a lot of "wahala" went on with govt and what not.
after about 2 yrs i got tired of holding the shares and decided to cut my losses and "waka", i then sold off all my units (at abt #60) save for the bonus which was given only because i didnt have the cert then.
and now the stock is doing over a 100. whats up with that?
is it just the new management or what?
i want to sell the little units(bonus) that is left.
please, gurus what do u advise?

Did not have time to respond yesterday. Was on a flight from Uk after a well deserved holiday funde with my FBN dividend.

Many things are evident on this thread. People wanting to make money without understanding their risk profile. Capital market is not a gamblers den. Be careful.

Your risk profile, your portfolio value etc also affects your choice of stocks. For example, if you have a N1bn portfolio, you will not be looking at Cutix, Capital oil, Trans Express etc. Reason is simple, when you want to sell you may not have anyone to sell to except your wife or children are planning to BUY. Factor all this into your calculation. That's why all the investment/stock broking house have their list of preffered/selected stocks. Choice is based on many things.

Like I always tell people, in a BULL market, everyone is an expert. A bearish market separates the boys from the men. For those that joined the market within the past 18months, they've only witnessed the BULL market and have concluded that LIFE will always be like that. Sorry, that is not so.

We I am a mechanical engineer. Bought my first stocks in the late '90s. Open a stock broking account in 2001. Bought shares blindly. Since then, I've read and learnt how to fish. Aditionally, I have gone for emotional/psychological tests to better prepare me for the market.

In teh early days, I bought National Oil at 20.00 Saw it dropped to 14.00 and was like what a mess is this. Bought more at 14.00 and it later got to 25.00 and I sold. Within 12 months after I sold, National Oil got to 100.00!!!! That made me to start to learn about fundamentals of a company. On the long run, the market will always recognise the value of a company. That's why Nigerian German, NAHCO etc were picks for me. If a stock is a BUY at the PO, then it is a MUST BUY prior to the PO!!!!!!

One other thing that is noticeable is the 'craze' to BUY anything and everything. Note that when you over diversified, you basically reduce your potential profit. I have over 40 (yes 40) stocks in my portfolio. However, 15 of them constitute almost 90% spread across sectors. So I only need to focus on the vital few. Note that portfolio diversification/asset allocation is key.

Also, our investment objective and horizon differs. Some are ethical investors while others are not. So it is difficult to make stock picks for people you know next to nothing about. Quite a couple of people I've had to ask them personal questions to be able to make 'quality' advice for them. You don't know how the person will react to a 10% drop in his portfolio!!!!!!

On Afrinvest, spoke with them today. They claimed to have responded to mails. If you stillw ant me to follow up on your behalf (willing to do so being a client of theirs for 7 years) send me an e-mail or forward the e-mail you sent to them.

Let us all enjoy the bullish run!!!

wanaj0:

Did not have time to respond yesterday. Was on a flight from Uk after a well deserved holiday funde with my FBN dividend.

Many things are evident on this thread. People wanting to make money without understanding their risk profile. Capital market is not a gamblers den. Be careful.

Your risk profile, your portfolio value etc also affects your choice of stocks. For example, if you have a N1bn portfolio, you will not be looking at Cutix, Capital oil, Trans Express etc. Reason is simple, when you want to sell you may not have anyone to sell to except your wife or children are planning to BUY. Factor all this into your calculation. That's why all the investment/stock broking house have their list of preffered/selected stocks. Choice is based on many things.

Like I always tell people, in a BULL market, everyone is an expert. A bearish market separates the boys from the men. For those that joined the market within the past 18months, they've only witnessed the BULL market and have concluded that LIFE will always be like that. Sorry, that is not so.

We I am a mechanical engineer. Bought my first stocks in the late '90s. Open a stock broking account in 2001. Bought shares blindly. Since then, I've read and learnt how to fish. Aditionally, I have gone for emotional/psychological tests to better prepare me for the market.

In the early days, I bought National Oil at 20.00 Saw it dropped to 14.00 and was like what a mess is this. Bought more at 14.00 and it later got to 25.00 and I sold. Within 12 months after I sold, National Oil got to 100.00!!!! That made me to start to learn about fundamentals of a company. On the long run, the market will always recognise the value of a company. That's why Nigerian German, NAHCO etc were picks for me. If a stock is a BUY at the PO, then it is a MUST BUY prior to the PO!!!!!!

One other thing that is noticeable is the 'craze' to BUY anything and everything. Note that when you over diversified, you basically reduce your potential profit. I have over 40 (yes 40) stocks in my portfolio. However, 15 of them constitute almost 90% spread across sectors. So I only need to focus on the vital few. Note that portfolio diversification/asset allocation is key.

Also, our investment objective and horizon differs. Some are ethical investors while others are not. So it is difficult to make stock picks for people you know next to nothing about. Quite a couple of people I've had to ask them personal questions to be able to make 'quality' advice for them. You don't know how the person will react to a 10% drop in his portfolio!!!!!!

On Afrinvest, spoke with them today. They claimed to have responded to mails. If you stillw ant me to follow up on your behalf (willing to do so being a client of theirs for 7 years) send me an e-mail or forward the e-mail you sent to them.

Let us all enjoy the bullish run!!!

chei! did i hear you mention N1B portfolio somewhere in your thread? let's just say if my portfolio is worth N1B i will be on the board of directors of Law union+Rock insurance or UNIC

On a more serious note every now and then we need your 'elderly' contributions to drum some semblance of REALITY into some peeps(_{yours truly included} on this forum

hi nairalanders. i am new to this forum, though i hav been following all the posts for abt 4months now. you guys are doing an absolutely good job. am really impressed. i have learnt a great deal here after buying my first stocks (first bank, yes! am one of them) last july. i am still reading up all posts so far on this thread. . and it would do any1 a world of good. more grease to your ££making machines.

Hello wanaj0, roughtcut and all,

I bought AP at about N68 and have just sold at N111.79 which was my intention as at when I bought it. I am eager to reinvest the money in stocks that will give me like 25%( ) in a short while.

This forum has changed my orientation about stock. Where do I put my money? I wont hold u responsible for anything. Just ur suggestion.

I am already in insurance and would prefer to wait for whatever goodies therein to come. No more investment in insurance.

Anybody got any help for me?

Kelvin

@wanaj0
wellcome back to put the house in order.
may you continue with your indept analysis on issues in this thread.
your notes of caution will never be disregarded.