RoughCut:

As long as the self-desclared holiday or is it garden leave as the medics would put it does not become a permanent one

Let me try and confuse you a  bit more

You calculate a trailing ratio either PE or EPS or PEG based on the declared figures for that company. For example if a company releases a half-year result you can calculate the trailing EPS  by dividing the PAT for the half-year period by the number of shares outstanding during the period in question and also if you want to know the trailing PE divide the current share price by the EPS you  calculated. The figures you arrive at will be trailing meaning they are based on past results for a given time frame in this instance  half-year or six months

You calculate a forward or projected ratio by extrapolating based on the figures you have at the moment. If a company releases half year figures you can EXTRAPOLATE the full-year results e.g PAT by increasing the half-year figures by a factor two(this will be accurate if the company makes the same proportion of its PAT for any given timeframe either quarterly or half-yearly) so your estimation will give you the forward or PROJECTED ratio and also ascertain the number of shares you expect to be listed for that company for the period in the future. For example if you know the number of shares for FCMB that will be listed by year-end which is April 08 then you can extrapolate the PAT for the whole year based on the half-year PAT they have declared

I will also consider the use of any interim (once it is not audited) report as projected. This is because the interim figures are also projections in their own right. I use only full audited result for trailing EPS or PE's calculation.

Note that projected figures are not necessarilly always the same. It depends on the assumption being made by the person doing the computation. I may decide to use a straight line profit growth while someone else may use another assumption. What you need is a validation of the assumptions used. Don't work towards getting similar answers because it is not rocket science. It is a subjective analysis.

wanaj0:


Well, you get to  a level where your 'miserly' capital injection is of no use.

Actually the scenario was done with the fact that after some years, you actually stop injecting new capital and it really does not affect your bottom line. A N500m portfolio does not really 'need' a N2m yearly capital injection!!! Hope you get my drift.


25m units of First Bank will not get you on the baord. Some years ago IBTC was asking people with N1bn to come forward and they will invest it and get them on the board of companies. Now, 1bn is not enough again!!!!!

Massive oversubsription will push up the price before the common men get their shares certificate or get it into their CSCS account. Once it becomes an all comers affair, water will find its level. Definitely, market sentiment will drive the price up but it is not suatainable. Just check Dangote Sugar from N56.00 now to about N36.00

Well even in the worst-case scenario you expect a portfolio worth N500M to be giving you at least  N125M assuming a 25% yield on a yearly basis so there'e no need injecting N2M but the point i'm trying to stress is the strategy you need to adopt to get to the N500M mark.

You are forgetting that the only shareholder in Dangote Flour is the man himself(not aware of any private shareholder though) until the certs are distributed so that basically means its a level playing field going forward so i expect  a rally and then may be after he's paid a couple of dividends the share price will definitely not break its  resistance or support level depending on the share price trending which is EXACTLY what has happened to Dangote Sugar the share price has become unresponsive to the quarterly dividend the guy is paying so Dangote Sugar is now trading within its support  and resistance channel i only expect side-ways movememt for now same will apply to Dangote Flour

REZIGIRL:

@ pumping,
so do one assume based on your tolerance level that those PEs on red means alert to u or what? based on today's price, diamond bank PE should be 20.25 hence on red too. Also can notice UBN has about d lowest PE in d banking sector (17.64 based on today's price), but this stock hasn't been doing too well from my observation, how do one correlate this with its low PE? (I've got some units of UBN i'll want to trade off with a target price of N55).

Also from lasaco recent results, how well can u predict it before dec ending, actually had a target price of N4 - N4.50 to cash out. How long do u think one will hold this or is it a 2008 stock?

PEs on red for me means "Do not buy except there is other information or market news to justify paying this premium now" An example reason could be the rate of growth of the company and maybe the expectation of a significantly better result than is projected.  I am looking for undervalued stocks so my tolerance level for PEs is very low. I do not want to pay the fair price for a stock.  

UBNs price is responding to public perception. Investors feel the bank is not as dynamic as other first-tier banks and this is affecting the market sentiments. Also, there is meant to be foreign capital injection and the shares may be diluted still.

Frankly I will not stick with UBN and I offloaded a while ago. Just ask yourself what you think the price of UBA or Zenith will be if UBN becomes N55. So instead I stick with UBA or Zenith.

I think good insurance stocks should really be held till at least 2008. I don't expect the prices to dip to what they were 3 weeks ago. Most folks that took profit after the last bull run may have to pay a premium on their selling price to re-enter.

I think N4 is a reasonable target for Lasaco in the short term though.

RoughCut:

Well even in the worst-case scenario you expect a portfolio worth N500M to be giving you at least  N125M assuming a 25% yield on a yearly basis so there'e no need injecting N2M but the point i'm trying to stress is the strategy you need to adopt to get to the N500M mark.

You are forgetting that the only shareholder in Dangote Flour is the man himself(not aware of any private shareholder though) until the certs are distributed so that basically means its a level playing field going forward so i expect  a rally and then may be after he's paid a couple of dividends the share price will definitely not break its  resistance or support level depending on the share price trending which is EXACTLY what has happened to Dangote Sugar the share price has become unresponsive to the quarterly dividend the guy is paying so Dangote Sugar is now trading within its support  and resistance channel i only expect side-ways movememt for now same will apply to Dangote Flour

There are private shareholders. However, with the imperfection in the market, you will be seeing trades right from day one that the stock is listed. It happened with Dangote Sugar and almost all the other companies. Though all animals are equal, some are more equal than the other. The registrars can decide to print and despatch your certificate last!

Mr. Risky:

WanajO,  
Welcome.  I know you had it in 1st Class since the dividend came from 1st Bank.  Just kidding.  That was how a friend bought First Aluminium at over N3 thinking it was owned by 1st Bank.  Still kidding.

WanajO,  Please can you tell me about RT Briscoe and Air Services & Logistics, and C & I Leasing.  I would certainly like to grow with those companies in the 3-5 years.  I am really keen on buying something now.  Sometimes it is a crime to keep one's money.  Remember the season!!!

Pumping 777
You are great asset to this forum.  easimoni, Roughcut (prefer Smoothcut though ), Fatherof2, all of you even, lurkers.  Welldone. With the knowledge I have gathered here, I am helping to heal a friends burnt fingers in TRANSCORP!  He had thought Transcorp would rally after technical suspension, it did rally though but SOUTHWARDS even down to the Niger Delta and beyond the creeks.

For now i'm roughcut for a reason have you seen an uncut diamond before? its as rough as coarse-paper not yet the finished article. So that's what i am for now-work-in-progress when i get to where i'm going then i can start thinking of changing my name to smoothcut or even silky-cut but for now roughcut will do

Make i take one proverb end my tory if you dont know where you are going every bus-stop will look like your bustop forgetting that all of us have different bus-stops  in life

oga Jehoshaphat what say you?

nuff said

FCMB RESULT REVIEW BY PAML

http://emmaachile.itgo.com/

@all

Why are so many people insistent on learning the secret of Father Of2?
He says he buys on rumours and sells on news.
That he aims for 25% gain only.
He gets all his information from the newspapers.
Why are these reasons so unreasonable?
Even if there is a secret he should not be pressured to reveal so long as he informs us of his decisions.
Those who trust him can follow and others ignore.

@Fof2
Why so much emphasis on Offshore and onshore?
This is a borderless platform where we all benefit from the exchange of information.
Let us keep this a united medium and behave like the new Nigerians not the old one.

Samstone4

wanaj0:

There are private shareholders. However, with the imperfection in the market, you will be seeing trades right from day one that the stock is listed. It happened with Dangote Sugar and almost all the other companies. Though all animals are equal, some are more equal than the other. The registrars can decide to print and despatch your certificate last!

Not sure about the private shareholders angle i thought there were some shareholders(his cronies no doubt) that were to be alloted the shares on a preferential basis (about 20% of the shares on offer and that doesnt make them private shareholders. He offloaded 25% of his holdings in Dangote Flour to the public to satisfy the requirements for listing on the NSE. he wanted to do a PP when the SEC were giving him some hassles(they reckon the offer price of N15 was a bit on the high side) so not sure when the PP was done and i dont think there are any shares in Dangote Flour capital structure

hmmmmmmn, remains a mystery to me

RoughCut:

Not sure about the private shareholders angle i thought there were some shareholders(his cronies no doubt) that were to be alloted the shares on a preferential basis (about 20% of the shares on offer and that doesnt make them private shareholders. He offloaded 25% of his holdings in Dangote Flour to the public to satisfy the requirements for listing on the NSE. he wanted to do a PP when the SEC were giving him some hassles(they reckon the offer price of N15 was a bit on the high side) so not sure when the PP was done and i don't think there are any shares in Dangote Flour capital structure

hmmmmmmn, remains a mystery to me

Look at it this way, any company must have at least two shareholders. So who is the other shareholder(s) of Dangote flour? Same thing happened with Dangote Sugar. As at the time the company was formed/incorporated, you already have shareholders. No need for a PP for this to happen. Upon listing, it is this categories of shareholders that can 'move' the market.

pumping777:

PEs on red for me means "Do not buy except there is other information or market news to justify paying this premium now" An example reason could be the rate of growth of the company and maybe the expectation of a significantly better result than is projected.  I am looking for undervalued stocks so my tolerance level for PEs is very low. I do not want to pay the fair price for a stock.  

UBNs price is responding to public perception. Investors feel the bank is not as dynamic as other first-tier banks and this is affecting the market sentiments. Also, there is meant to be foreign capital injection and the shares may be diluted still.

Frankly I will not stick with UBN and I offloaded a while ago. Just ask yourself what you think the price of UBA or Zenith will be if UBN becomes N55. So instead I stick with UBA or Zenith.

I think good insurance stocks should really be held till at least 2008. I don't expect the prices to dip to what they were 3 weeks ago. Most folks that took profit after the last bull run may have to pay a premium on their selling price to re-enter.

I think N4 is a reasonable target for Lasaco in the short term though.

wanaj0:

I will also consider the use of any interim (once it is not audited) report as projected. This is because the interim figures are also projections in their own right. I use only full audited result for trailing EPS or PE's calculation.

Note that projected figures are not necessarilly always the same. It depends on the assumption being made by the person doing the computation. I may decide to use a straight line profit growth while someone else may use another assumption. What you need is a validation of the assumptions used. Don't work towards getting similar answers because it is not rocket science. It is a subjective analysis.

Thanks everybody.I _{mean both offshore and onshore nairalanders}.Expect more

@ All

Figures for Daimond,

SELECTED INDICES

Current Price : N17.98

Shares Outstanding : 9.39 billion

Market Capitalization : N169.01 billion

Stock Price Volatility : 0.47

Liquidity : High

Price to Book : 3.12 Industry Average: 5.05

Return on Assets 2006 : 1.74%

Return on Assets 2007 : 2.20%

Return on Equity 2006 : 11.31%

Return on Equity 2007 : 13.04%

PAT (2007) : N7.05 billion

Projected PAT (2008) : N10.86 billion

EPS (2007) : N0.75

Projected EPS (2008) : N1.15

PE (2007) : 24.00 Industry Average: 27.7

Projected PE (2008) : 15.55 Industry Average: 23.30

Dividend Yield (2007) : 3.06%

Projected Dividend Yield (2008) : 4.18% Industry Average: 2.51%

Fair Value : N26.93

Projected Price (2008) : N25.00

Recommendation : BUY (Short Term) BUY (Long Term)

FatherOF2:

I can see you diligently recalled the quotes from others,but you wrote my response in your own writing.I doubt i gave such a rude response.
To answer you its a combination of experience and Newspapers.
Those in the diaspora can't have access to these things because they can only read " Washington post".
Patiently repost my posts and i gave one clear answer somewhere.

Also add 'Financial Times' and New York Times and for good measure 'Die Spiegel'(for my Swiss and German speaking compatriots)
You must be a very funny guy

@Pumping,

For sharing this your all important tool, you are appreciated.

@all,

Please, who are those buying Transcorp shares?. At the end of trading today, 244 deals took place and in terms of volume, 17,592,700. What is going on?.

Peace.

PUMPING777


THANK YOU VERY, VERY MUCH FOR YOUR SELF-SACRIFICING SPIRIT. The spreadsheet couldn't have come at much better time.

Once again thanks.

Please keep sharing.
Regards

I think we have a new kid on the block. Though another fairly illiquid stock.

AG Leventis.

I think the kid has already bolted though. With the results declared today, the forward PE is now looking like 13.29 even after max points today. The Q-3 PAT is almost the full year projected PAT!!

If you have the stock, hold on tight.

pumping777:

I think we have a new kid on the block.

AG Leventis.

I think the kid has already bolted though. With the results declared today, the forward PE is now looking like 13.29 even after max points today. The Q-3 PAT is almost the full year projected PAT!!

If you have the stock, hold on tight.

Checked it up.U got the results?Please do share if u got it.Think its worth putting some idle money?

Many thanks wanajo. But what do you think about japaul - is it ok to buy now? My goal it to max my 500,000Naira investment which I put in nahco by feb 2008. So can I sell my nahco for japaul - or which other stock do you advise?
Grateful 4 ur time

damoche07:

Checked it up.You got the results?Please do share if u got it.Think its worth putting some idle money?

I think the real question is if you will get to buy. It looks like a good buy to me if you can still get it now. It maxed 5% open to close today.

A.G. LEVENTIS NIGERIA PLC
9 months, Sep. 2007

                                   2007                     2006
Turnover                   5,078.00 5,560.00

PAT                               411.90  355.00

Observe lower turnover though.

How did it miss our radar on this thread?Any reasons why their PAT target was underestimated b4.Any exceptional item or sale.Is the increase consistent with the earlier HY results?Noticed they had lesser turnover than last years and still made more more profit this year, Jargons i am saying.

Bottomline,will u jump on the horse if u have the chance?

EMMAACHILE:

FCMB RESULT REVIEW BY PAML

http://emmaachile.itgo.com/

@EMMAACHILE

pls i need you technical chat ebook, the one you promised to give to who ever asked pls

email me thr: harrisoft(at)yahoo.com

thank you.

@ wanajo (father) well come,
@ fatherof2 (mother) well done,

the truth is we need you both, then our brain to balance things up,

the money is OUR'S the profit/loss is OUR'S

In my case I missed it because I still lack some results dating to the past.

On the surface it is easy to miss because the Q-2 PAT was only 0.22B. However, considering the Q-3 PAT for 2006 was 0.36B and the Q-2 PAT for 2006 was 0.18B, one should have caught on the trend that the Q-3 PAT could be significantly higher.

The only problem is that I did not have the Q-3 result for 2006. What we need now is the full year for 2006. I am going to go find it now.

Yes, if I can get tomorrow or Friday, I am in.

@EMMAACHILE Thanks for sharing all those reports. Keep them coming.

@ pumping
Your spreadsheet is such a blessing. Can you suggest to me how i can best update the daily share prices on the spreadsheet. Considering the volume, is there any way i can copy from say an on-line site with daily share prices and them paste it in the spreadsheet.

AG Leventis (Last Fiscal Year)

The turnover of the company increased by 1.43%, from N7 billion to N7.1 billion in 2006. profit after tax also increased from N343 million to N395 million in 2006, an increase of 14.9%. The full year EPS stood at N0.18, while a dividend of N0.10 was approved. The company is likely to begin manufacturing of generators here in Nigeria, and this will boost its profitability in the nearest future. It would interest you to know that Nigeria is the largest importer of generators in the world at present.The register closure date ids May 14, 2007.

So in Q-4, turnover grew from 5.08B to 7.1B but PAT only grew from 0.36B to 4B. Most of the PAT was reported in Q-3 in 2006 and also in 2007, but Q-4 2006 recorded a PAT that is only about 25% of the PAT in Q-3 2006.

To summarize, I think one can enter this short term because this growth may not be sustained in Q-4.

pumping777:

AG Leventis (Last Fiscal Year)

The turnover of the company increased by 1.43%, from N7 billion to N7.1 billion in 2006. profit after tax also increased from N343 million to N395 million in 2006, an increase of 14.9%. The full year EPS stood at N0.18, while a dividend of N0.10 was approved. The company is likely to begin manufacturing of generators here in Nigeria, and this will boost its profitability in the nearest future. It would interest you to know that Nigeria is the largest importer of generators in the world at present.The register closure date ids May 14, 2007.

So in Q-4, turnover grew from 5.08B to 7.1B but PAT only grew from 0.36B to 4B. Most of the PAT was reported in Q-3 in 2006 and 2007 but Q-4 recorded a PAT that is only about 25% of the PAT in Q-3.

To summarize, I think one can enter this short term because this growth may not be sustained in Q-4.

Kudos.U pumped it out.Living up to ur billing.

WHAT is pushing UACN? Price now close to N50.

@Pumping777

I see you are online, just to know you opinion on this scenario -

I bought GT price at a high price, and if I sell now I will take a loss of 15%.  But given the situation with GT Bank in the last few months, would you rather take the loss and try and take position in other emerging opportunites, like Oceanic & UBA  or would you hold given that it has to appreciaite 17.5% before I break even.  I have had it for 4 months now.

Thanks.

yelinax:

@ pumping
Your spreadsheet is such a blessing. Can you suggest to me how i can best update the daily share prices on the spreadsheet. Considering the volume, is there any way i can copy from say an on-line site with daily share prices and them paste it in the spreadsheet.

Subscribe to the stock price list at www.fsdhsecurities.com. This is the format I used for my spreadsheet. You will have it sent to your email daily. You can also get it on the site but that one is not in excel format so copying columns is a problem.

Just save the one you get from the email and copy the price column there to the price column on my spreadsheet. Watch out for new listings so always check to make sure that the order is still the same.

In less than a minute you should have your up to date spreadsheet.

SGN:

@Pumping777

I see you are online, just to know you opinion on this scenario -

I bought GT price at a high price, and if I sell now I will take a loss of 15%. But given the situation with GT Bank in the last few months, would you rather take the loss and try and take position in other emerging opportunites, like Oceanic & UBA or would you hold given that it has to appreciaite 17.5% before I break even. I have had it for 4 months now.

Thanks.

It's good that you realize the 17.5%/15% scenario.

I will wait until next year when GT announces full results. I think you will get your money back. GT is a solid stock and tend to end the year strong.

@pumping
Thanx a million

@Pumping777

Thanks a lot.