@ Father of 2
I have a problem with you. You seem to be bloated with a sense of importance because you predicted Access would rally and it did. The older members of this thread have been sacrificing their time and effort to share information and make sure that every one learns but you are bent on keeping yours to your self. From EMMAACHILE's reports, software and spreadsheets, Pumpings number crunching, no-shakings End of year reports, Easimoni, Wanajo, Aktopgun, youdiyokun, Temmie 10 etc, even me and my poultry proverbs, the essence is to share info but you are not doing that and I dont think it is fair. Youngdoc asked somewhere earlier in this thread .

@ Fatherof2. May I humbly ask by what strategy you predicted that Access would rise etc etc

and you told him to go back and read his news papers, what kind of a response is that? Easimoni has asked you here

Biko Fatherof2. Abeg, how u dey predict these things? You have to reveal the "code" you've been alluding to.

You ignored him.
Yodiyokun asked you again and your reply was " hahahahaa"

I dont think thats the spirit of this thread , and if you would rather not say, why not tactically let us know that it is a secret software or something and not gloat !

I dont expect you or anyone one else to reply just so we dont start another flow of bad blood but it has rankled within my belly and so i felt i should point it out.


Meanwhile, anyone watching Japaul?

MyPeace:

please somebody should react to pumping post on Lasaco result on page 87. lt seems am the only person suffering losses from lasaco? l bought at N3.25 4months ago, l hvnt joined this forum then shaa

Lasaco's result is good. Marginally better than projected.  They are on course for a PAT of 1.15B which is the highest I have projected for any insurance company currently. The forward PE is about 21 which is about the 3rd lowest in the sector right now. If you have the stock, my recommendation is to hold.

@fatherof 2
Ok, thats about N4.3k

@pumping
i think if the price gets to the above as predicted by our PROPHET, i may have to cashout, l even want the money for Bank PHB offer.

thank you.

pumping777:

Great insight. I toyed with some numbers when I started out on the NSE and I figured time has to be my good friend.

I figure that if I grow my current portfolio consistently at an average of 100% year on year for 5 years, I will have gone past the N1B naira mark. However, I will be more reasonable and plan for 50% annual growth in which case it can happen in about 8 years. I truly believe that money is just a number.

I think a better startegy will be to aim to grow the portfolio by a combination of the returns you expect from your investment and also capital injection from your personal resources i think you can reduce the time frame to achieve your goal. If you have fixed-assets as part of your portfolio( then you don't need liquidity injection) as this will grow organically without you pumping_{you are already pumping anyway} in additional cash but for the liquid assets side i think you might need some more capital injection for a few more years but then it depends on the size of your liquid  portfolio and how deep your pockets are

RoughCut:

I think a better startegy will be to aim to grow the portfolio by a combination of the returns you expect from your investment and also capital injection from your personal resources i think you can reduce the time frame to achieve your goal. If you have fixed-assets as part of your portfolio( then you don't need liquidity injection) as this will grow organically without you pumping_{you are already pumping anyway} in additional cash but for the liquid assets side i think you might need some more capital injection for a few more years but then it depends on the size of your liquid portfolio and how deep your pockets are

Oh yes, I will continue to feed my portfolio with more capital and I also have other investments which should shorten the years.

MyPeace:

@fatherof 2
Ok, thats about N4.3k

@pumping
i think if the price gets to the above as predicted by our PROPHET, i may have to cashout, l even want the money for Bank PHB offer.

thank you.

Hold means do not sell for now (It does not mean hold forever  ) which is what you want to do. Wait for some more appreciation.

In the very short term I think N4.30 is ambitious though. Lasaco's half year PAT was 0.54B, so a Q-3 PAT of 0.87B is not such a surprise.

hahahaha

i siddon dey look. lets see how it appreciates .

MyPeace:

hahahaha

i siddon dey look. lets see how it appreciates .

We both siddon dey look. I get some for pocket too

@ Fatherof2,

Oceanic approaching striking distance.

Yes oh

Remember my N1.5 million, I am waiting for it

Going to hit a home run with this one.

Right price I set is 28-29.50.

@pumpin,
thanx man. that was quick. you never stop pumping, do you? lol

@jehosaphat
you couldnt have been more spot on! father of2, make u divulge now. haba! u have been so tactical in hiding ur armani code (or is it da vinci's) remmeber there's joy in sharing.

@wanaj0,
i hope ur source of dangotre returning over subscr mkney was only joking. they surely cant return mkney to me when i bought a paltry 15,000 units?!??!

I have asked my broker to purchase some transcorp shares. he keeps saying they are not available and millions of units get traded. what do u think?

MyPeace:

hahahaha

i siddon dey look. lets see how it appreciates .

This is a piece of news from yesterday.

"Equity Assurance and Lasaco both had robust trades and closed with unfilled bids at maximum price, a trend which may persist tomorrow."

RoughCut:

I think a better startegy will be to aim to grow the portfolio by a combination of the returns you expect from your investment and also capital injection from your personal resources i think you can reduce the time frame to achieve your goal. If you have fixed-assets as part of your portfolio( then you don't need liquidity injection) as this will grow organically without you pumping_{you are already pumping anyway} in additional cash but for the liquid assets side i think you might need some more capital injection for a few more years but then it depends on the size of your liquid  portfolio and how deep your pockets are

pumping777:

Oh yes, I will continue to feed my portfolio with more capital and I also have other investments which should shorten the years.

Well, you get to  a level where your 'miserly' capital injection is of no use.

Actually the scenario was done with the fact that after some years, you actually stop injecting new capital and it really does not affect your bottom line. A N500m portfolio does not really 'need' a N2m yearly capital injection!!! Hope you get my drift.

RoughCut:

Please tell me you are kidding me but then i suppose that person should be on the board of directors of that company with a shareholding of  N1B

As for RedStar i put a limit on my order anything above N6 they can forget it obviously i'm not going to get it so looks like another  one slipped through my finggers not the first time

The funny thing its this massive over-subscription of Dangote Flour Mills that will push up the price. As at the time the PO came on the market i was one of the people that said it was expensive at a PE of 15 or thereabouts i think the fair value we arrived at then was around N10 but its now looking cheap at the offer price of N15(market inefficiency) so i wont be shocked if the price shoots up to more than N25 after TS. I think the market has already priced in this scenario

It is not fundamentals that will be driving the price of Dangote flour but market sentiments but then i guess everybody already worked that one out

25m units of First Bank will not get you on the baord. Some years ago IBTC was asking people with N1bn to come forward and they will invest it and get them on the board of companies. Now, 1bn is not enough again!!!!!

Massive oversubsription will push up the price before teh common men get their shares certificate or get it into their CSCS account. Once it becomes an all comers affair, water will find its level. Definitely, market sentiment will drive the price up but it is not suatainable. Just check Dangote Sugar from N56.00 now to about N36.00

@pumping

thats good news, and it actually persisted today, from N3.15 of yesterday to N3.31 today. lt should appreciate faster biko so that l can raise money for Bank PHB.

jehosaphat:

@ Father of 2
I have a problem with you. You seem to be bloated with a sense of importance because you predicted Access would rally and it did. The older members of this thread have been sacrificing their time and effort to share information and make sure that every one learns but you are bent on keeping yours to your self. From EMMAACHILE's reports, software and spreadsheets, Pumpings number crunching, no-shakings End of year reports, Easimoni, Wanajo, Aktopgun, youdiyokun, Temmie 10 etc, even me and my poultry proverbs, the essence is to share info but you are not doing that and I don't think it is fair. Youngdoc asked somewhere earlier in this thread . and you told him to go back and read his news papers, what kind of a response is that? Easimoni has asked you here You ignored him.
Yodiyokun asked you again and your reply was " hahahahaa"

I don't think thats the spirit of this thread , and if you would rather not say, why not tactically let us know that it is a secret software or something and not gloat !

I don't expect you or anyone one else to reply just so we don't start another flow of bad blood but it has rankled within my belly and so i felt i should point it out.


Meanwhile, anyone watching Japaul?

I can see you diligently recalled the quotes from others,but you wrote my response in your own writing.I doubt i gave such a rude response.
To answer you its a combination of experience and Newspapers.
Those in the diaspora can't have access to these things because they can only read " Washington post".
Patiently repost my posts and i gave one clear answer somewhere.

@pumping, thanks for that wonderful spreadsheet.


It appears, there are soo many red columns for forward P.Es its absolutely ridiculous.

What exactly should the  average P.E ratio be? mid 20s to 30s seem to be the norm from that spreadsheet.

How much more can this Banks actually grow their earnings? Can this trend be sustained?

@Wanaj0,

Flour mills, seems to be on the go, even at the current price the P.E is ridiculously low.

What do you presume is the fair value of Flour mills.

By Projecting the forward P.E to 17, that will be afuture market price of around N100 which is just 25% capital appreciation.

Does anyone see Flour mills getting to N100 by Q1 2008?

BGL is having a private placement.

Minimum subscription 1M shares @N7 each.

Access the offer document from the link below.

http://us.f13.yahoofs.com/bc/473db9b4_a39e/bc/My+Documents/Private+placement+24+nov+07+CD.pdf?bfwTXTHBgKJmVeLZ

Save the link as a pdf file.

Market today na so so!!!

Nigerian German lost today (Shigidi na you cause am OOO). NAHCO also lost as expected.

OandO crossed the 90.00 mark!!! That is great news. Inter is on the march again. Ikeja hotels is stagnant. Chellaram is stagnant!!!!

Has the technical suspension on ETI being lifted? That is a good value stock.

FatherOF2:

I can see you diligently recalled the quotes from others,but you wrote my response in your own writing.I doubt i gave such a rude response.
To answer you its a combination of experience and Newspapers.
Those in the diaspora can't have access to these things because they can only read " Washington post".
Patiently repost my posts and i gave one clear answer somewhere.

Baba Ibeji,

Stop speaking in riddles.

I agree we may not have access to Guardian or Thisday papers, however that is why you are here to share the relevant information you read.

Kindly share - thats all we ask.

Guys , any news on access results coming out, we don dey wait so tey,

yodiyokun:

@pumping, thanks for that wonderful spreadsheet.


It appears, there are soo many red columns for forward P.Es its absolutely ridiculous.

What exactly should the  average P.E ratio be? mid 20s to 30s seem to be the norm from that spreadsheet.

As you know it needs to be different for the different sectors but I have not included this level of sectoral analysis in the excel sheet yet though this is easily done. For the banking sector, I think 25 should be the average.

Generally a PE above 20 gives a red signal on my excel sheet. It is my tolerance level. You can change this to what you are comfortable with. Between 15 and 20 is Yellow and below 15 is green. However, I have to analyze each stock on a one to one basis.

@ Wanajo

Has the technical suspension on ETI being lifted? That is a good value stock.

I agree with you but a bit expensive for some of us. Na big men like you fit afford am.


@ Yodiyokun,

@pumping, thanks for that wonderful spreadsheet.


It appears, there are soo many red columns for forward P.Es its absolutely ridiculous.

What exactly should the  average P.E ratio be? mid 20s to 30s seem to be the norm from that spreadsheet.

How much more can this Banks actually grow their earnings? Can this trend be sustained?

@Wanaj0,

Flour mills, seems to be on the go, even at the current price the P.E is ridiculously low.

What do you presume is the fair value of Flour mills.

By Projecting the forward P.E to 17,  that will be afuture market price of around N100 which is just 25% capital appreciation.

Does anyone see Flour mills getting to N100 by Q1 2008?

Wema bank, Zenith Bank and Daimond Bank, are still there with a low PEs,

pumping777:

As you know it needs to be different for the different sectors but I have not included this level of sectoral analysis in the excel sheet yet though this is easily done. For the banking sector, I think 25 should be the average.

Generally a PE above 20 gives a red signal on my excel sheet. It is my tolerance level. You can change this to what you are comfortable with. Between 15 and 20 is Yellow and below 15 is green. However, I have to analyze each stock on a one to one basis.

@pumping
Thanks I will definitely do the averaging of the sectors.

But from the general overview, this is definitely not a buying season - there may be few gems out there if you can get them.

I think I will sit this one out for the time being.

@ Wanajo

Has the technical suspension on ETI being lifted? That is a good value stock.

I agree with you but a bit expensive for some of us. Na big men like you fit afford am.


@ Yodiyokun,

@pumping, thanks for that wonderful spreadsheet.


It appears, there are soo many red columns for forward P.Es its absolutely ridiculous.

What exactly should the  average P.E ratio be? mid 20s to 30s seem to be the norm from that spreadsheet.

How much more can this Banks actually grow their earnings? Can this trend be sustained?

@Wanaj0,

Flour mills, seems to be on the go, even at the current price the P.E is ridiculously low.

What do you presume is the fair value of Flour mills.

By Projecting the forward P.E to 17,  that will be afuture market price of around N100 which is just 25% capital appreciation.

Does anyone see Flour mills getting to N100 by Q1 2008?

Wema bank, Zenith Bank and Daimond Bank, are still there with a low PEs,

ololufemi:


@ Yodiyokun,

Wema bank, Zenith Bank and Daimond Bank, are still there with a low PEs,

Remember, Wema and Zenith are on T.S - not ready to buy through cross trade.

Only Diamond remains and I have some of it already. If it falls below N18 again I will go for more.

@pumping

After the scolding by our own easimoni-who incidentally is on a self declared holiday-i have started learning.I have seen the spreadsheet.Do i take an average of the PE's in all the companies sector as the average PE in that sector. The column for trailing PE is blank and u guys talk about it a lot.Is it not that relevant. If its relevant,whats the difference btwn trailing and projected.

damoche07:

@pumping

After the scolding by our own easimoni-who incidentally is on a self declared holiday-i have started learning.I have seen the spreadsheet.Do i take an average of the PE's in all the companies sector as the average PE in that sector. The column for trailing PE is blank and u guys talk about it a lot.Is it not that relevant. If its relevant,whats the difference btwn trailing and projected.

Yeah thats pretty much how to calculate sector average pes
Trailing PE is what you get when you use the last year's earnings (or last reported earnings) in calculating eps.
Forward is what you get when you use the expected/projected earnings for the current/next year.
Obviously forward PE is a bit more important because we buy a company because of expected performance.

I bought nahco @ 24Naira when the ts was just lifted. After a few days dip, its been on the rise. Will it continue its rise or Is it wise for me to sell now and buy japaul? I need the money in feb.
I shall appreciate ur kind advise pls - fatherof2, wanajo, pumping, et al, una dey there so?

damoche07:

@pumping

After the scolding by our own easimoni-who incidentally is on a self declared holiday-i have started learning.I have seen the spreadsheet.Do i take an average of the PE's in all the companies sector as the average PE in that sector. The column for trailing PE is blank and u guys talk about it a lot.Is it not that relevant. If its relevant,whats the difference btwn trailing and projected.

As long as the self-desclared holiday or is it garden leave as the medics would put it does not become a permanent one

Let me try and confuse you a  bit more

You calculate a trailing ratio either PE or EPS or PEG based on the declared figures for that company. For example if a company releases a half-year result you can calculate the trailing EPS  by dividing the PAT for the half-year period by the number of shares outstanding during the period in question and also if you want to know the trailing PE divide the current share price by the EPS you  calculated. The figures you arrive at will be trailing meaning they are based on past results for a given time frame in this instance  half-year or six months

You calculate a forward or projected ratio by extrapolating based on the figures you have at the moment. If a company releases half year figures you can EXTRAPOLATE the full-year results e.g PAT by increasing the half-year figures by a factor two(this will be accurate if the company makes the same proportion of its PAT for any given timeframe either quarterly or half-yearly) so your estimation will give you the forward or PROJECTED ratio and also ascertain the number of shares you expect to be listed for that company for the period in the future. For example if you know the number of shares for FCMB that will be listed by year-end which is April 08 then you can extrapolate the PAT for the whole year based on the half-year PAT they have declared

damoche07:

@pumping

After the scolding by our own easimoni-who incidentally is on a self declared holiday-i have started learning.I have seen the spreadsheet.Do i take an average of the PE's in all the companies sector as the average PE in that sector. The column for trailing PE is blank and u guys talk about it a lot.Is it not that relevant. If its relevant,whats the difference btwn trailing and projected.

You already got the explanation from Temmie10 and RoughCut.

Let me talk about updating the trailing PE on the excel sheet. I don't have it for most companies on the excel sheet because I don't have the last full year results. Also new full year results will soon be coming in. You can also use any interim result that has been declared. I prefer to use on Full year results. If you get this, just update the turnover and PAT columns for Full Year 2006. The copy any field in which the trailing PE has been calculated to the corresponding field for the company you have just updated the turnover and PAT. The trailing PE will automatically be calculated.

If you want to calculate it yourself,  

Trailing PE =  (Capitalization (price multiplied by number of shares)/Last Full Year PAT)

feelgood:

I bought nahco @ 24Naira when the ts was just lifted. After a few days dip, its been on the rise. Will it continue its rise or Is it wise for me to sell now and buy japaul? I need the money in feb.
I shall appreciate your kind advise please - fatherof2, wanajo, pumping, et al, una dey there so?

If we share similarities, I would have sold. NAHCO is over priced. Well, it dropped today to 28.00. Sold day before at 29.00. Bought at the IPO though so our situation are not the same. You need to ask yourself why you bought and what was your exit strategy.

Temmie10:

Yeah thats pretty much how to calculate sector average pes
Trailing PE is what you get when you use the last year's earnings (or last reported earnings) in calculating eps.
Forward is what you get when you use the expected/projected earnings for the current/next year.
Obviously forward PE is a bit more important because we buy a company because of expected performance.

Most times what people do is a weighted average. A straight forward average can be misleading. You also need historical PE's to show you the shift/changes taking place.

Ololufemi, on why do you think that ETI is expensive?

@ pumping,
so do one assume based on ur tolerance level dat those PEs on red means alert to u or what? based on today's price, diamond bank PE should be 20.25 hence on red too. Also can notice UBN has about d lowest PE in d banking sector (17.64 based on today's price), but this stock hasn't been doing too well from my observation, how do one correlate this with its low PE? (I've got some units of UBN i'll want to trade off with a target price of N55).

Also from lasaco recent results, how well can u predict it b4 dec ending, actually had a target price of N4 - N4.50 to cash out. How long do u think one will hold this or is it a 2008 stock?