Good day to All you gurus in the house.


Please i need a software preferably online that can be telling me what i am worth at any point in time in my Nigerian Stocks

I tried to use a spreadsheet but it is so manual. I know with my 401k acct, once trading for the day is completed,
i can see my positions , how much i am worth, gain and loss and even a pie chart representation of my assets. Is there a broker that
has similar service or a software customised for naija i can buy.

Thanks


@flakyy
You can create your portfolio and as many as you want here

http://www.nigeriansecurities.com/index.php

@ yelinax, no make me vex hand over all my stock to you o!

My post was referring to people pestering HRH Stock Admiral Wanajo, it just happened to come after your posting.

If no be say my portfolio improve today, I know wetin I fit talk to una o!

I fit write book about this thread!

It has all the trappings of a good novel; money, suicide bombing,fundamentalism, fights,and I cant believe it ;ejaculations!

@ blest et al

i really do not understand u guys at all,
somebody has taken the pain, time and effort to produce something and u have the gal to come here and say you are disapponted,
before u go on , pls answer these questions

IS IT YOUR OWN??
DID U TELL HIM TO MAKE IT??

i am disappointed in you as well, what u on about
he has told yodiyokun(hope i spelt it right) to post it, wait for it,
hv u provided any info on this thread even if it is for HUMOUR sake as some people do now

I REALLY MISS THE OLD THREAD,
i am nt a GURU or a master but i read and learn and DO NOT POST LUDICROUS COMMENTS

IF Wanj0 decides not to partake on this thread anymore, nobody can fault him, clear case is right now is easimoni,
FYI, all the transctions i have made in the last year have a connection to this thread and  i hv never been in the RED

i think the right sequence is THINK and TYPE not  TYPE and THINK

@titus
You no say you be my Oga, A beg no vex O! Na coincidence. Love your sense of humour sha. Any help with my question. Thanks.

@ wanajo
pls can u send me the magical spreadsheet?

does anyone have any idea as to how much longer ap will continue to rise,
has anyone tried buying ap recently? is it scarce?
would u recommend me to buy ap?
i bought 5000 units of cutix at 9.02 naira(or sumtin) and it's now 13.29
i called my stock broker and told him to sell it for me(this is my 1st time of selling)
he said i should wait till it gets past 16 naira
WHAT DO U GURUS THINK?
CAN IT REALLY RISE to 16 naira? abeg oh. i dey fear. i bought cutix for short term and dont want it to start falling b4 i maximize my profit


pls send me ur magical spreadsheet, thanks, mwah!


i bought

Please what is the gist in the house on Betaglass?, when will it "mature" ?


many thanks.

Woww !!!, THE SKY IS THE BEGINING SPACE IS ENDLESS!!!!

I am shopping for a reliable stock broker---any one with contact details? I dont have 500,000 of 5million to spare so kindly tell me stockbrokers who I can work with and can check issues online.

@ Kg
Can I please get the number to ur broker, thanks God bless

bjluv:

I am shopping for a reliable stock broker---any one with contact details? I don't have 500,000 of 5million to spare so kindly tell me stockbrokers who I can work with and can check issues online.

@bjluv,

When I opened my Stock a/c with Afrinvest West Africa (erstwhile SECTRUST) I did it online. When I visited Nigeria I gave them my proof of ID and signed Stock transfer forms in their office and  was not asked any money to fund the account. Although all my unverified Stock portfolio is over N2m, I only have N200,000 worth of verified Stock in my CSCS a/c with Afrinvest, despite them indicating N500,000 as a minimum for opening an account with them. I advise you to go their website www.afrinvestwa.com  and print out the forms and take it to their office-I doubt they would require the N500,000 amount from you.

[quote="LondonCool"]When I opened my Stock a/c with Afrinvest West Africa (erstwhile SECTRUST) I did it online. When I visited Nigeria I gave them my proof of ID and signed Stock transfer forms in their office and was not asked any money to fund the account. Although all my unverified Stock portfolio is over N2m, I only have N200,000 worth of verified Stock in my CSCS a/c with Afrinvest, despite them indicating N500,000 as a minimum for opening an account with them. I advise you to go their website www.afrinvestwa.com and print out the forms and take it to their office-I doubt they would require the N500,000 amount from you.[/quote]

Thank you so much for the info. The problem is I reside somewhere in Scandinavia and all I could do is operate from here with them or then through my sister there in Lagos. I am just planning to start from little and if things go fine, I could spead up the amounts on my portfolio,

I am new to the NSE so I wouldnt like to drop a huge amount at once in Naija when I know the sort of country it is  What do you think could be the way out, for me? Got any contacts there that could help, ?

@Temmie 10,
Pls i got a message waiting for you in your box.

http://odili.net/news/source/2007/nov/29/200.html

Waiting for Obajana Cement. They are restructuring management!! Steal Lafarge ( Wapco) director to make Obajana stronger, Not bad.


Isnt Access supposed to have released results?!!

@Wanajo,
Plenty of thanks to you and the other gurus for the great work you guys do here.
Is there any chance you would let me have you email address? Trust me, I am not going to email you on the spreadsheet thingy. I am keen on sounding you out on a different matter entirely, (admittedly it is related to the NSE). For starters, here is mine atamman2000 (at) gmail(.)com . I hope the altruism you have shown on this forum would come to fore again.
More grease to your elbows and, in fact, all your other joints

Temmie10:

@windywendy
Dun move the mkt too much with this stash of cash o
Personally i really like the phb po. i think its december's winner in terms of pos/pps.
BUt i'd appreciate if you helped scrutinize it

Hehehe, move the market? Naaa. Come to think of it, I recently bought betaglass at 13.12 -- _{really cheap at that price, I wonder what the market was thinking to put a price like that on the stock}  that transaction may have moved the price a bit though,

I'll take a look at the Phb prospectus and share my comments.

barge:


@ windy wendy

 howz da little one , nice to have you back. gast to go my exam is on sat.

Thanks! All da best in your exams oh! remember to sleep the night before the d-day

wanaj0:

Windywendy, long time no hear!!!!!!!

The transfer pricing you talked about with Dangote Flour is about to happen now with BAGCO. So what saith thou??

Oga Wanaj0, I see you've been doing some great work here. Keep it going! As per Bagco, I've not really looked at the prospectus in detail, but from a cursory glance, I liked the balance sheet and the fact that the business seems sound. I however did not understand why they're excluding the PO issued shares from the 2008 dividend. I'll take a more detailed look and share my comments.

@Jehosaphat (hope I spelled this right): same applies.

As an aside, I think Fatherof2's strategy is sound -- Just another way of taking advantage of the inefficiencies inherent in the market, esp. one as predictable as the NSE. I also use the strategy to generate cash for my longer-term investments, and it does work _{at least until it stops working} . However I limit the amount for now 'because it's highly risky, esp. if one gets caught napping. Coupled with using fundamental analysis, you can make both short term gains arising from the market's near-sightedness and the long-term gains which are much higher _{think of it as taking money from both ends  .} That's my two cents.

windywendy:

As an aside, I think Fatherof2's strategy is sound -- Just another way of taking advantage of the inefficiencies inherent in the market, esp. one as predictable as the NSE. I also use the strategy to generate cash for my longer-term investments, and it does work _{at least until it stops working} . However I limit the amount to no more than 10-12m for now 'because it's highly risky, esp. if one gets caught napping. Coupled with using fundamental analysis, you can make both short term gains arising from the market's near-sightedness and the long-term gains which are much higher _{think of it as taking money from both ends .} That's my two cents.

As my peeps say; "when you are big, you are BIG"

I agree, had me converting that to $$ like shuoooo! Windywendy I want to be like u when I grow up

easimoni:

As my peeps say; "when you are big, you are BIG"

@Ben0524

You can start with another stockbroker at anytime and transfer your stocks at a later date.

Not sure what forms you need to transfer your stocks to the control of your new broker - assuming your stocks are under CSCS.
If your shares are in certificates nothing need concern your abandoned brokers.
I hear that the brokers are a bit more cooperative nowadays due to better regulation.
Make sure you study your new broker very carefully before moving your account so as not to move from the fryingpan into the fire!

If you did not enter your CSCS number on your application form all it means is that you will have to wait for your share certificate which will then have to be verified before it can be de-materialised to CSCS. A long process.

Hope of some help.

Samstone4

@all,

Remember That I work oo and in the last 4 hours I have been away from this page simply because I get to commute home --pick my kids - and tuck them in.

@Pumpings spreadsheet is on page 187 of this thread - no one should ask for it again. do a search.

Now for the long awaited spreadsheet.

Remember, there is no BUY or sell info. It is just a repository of historical information - To gain fom it, it needs to be reviewed and anaylzed.


Thanks Wanaj0 for sharing this - It is highly appreciated.


P.S I am modifying this post because Yawa has gassed.

Seun placed a limit of 200kb per file attachment. The file is 3.5MB even after zipping it , I could only reduce it to 700kb. So if anyone has a way of working round it let me know.

However I no fit send email to everybody, thats no feasible so lets look for a solution.

@ Yodiyoks and All

Perhaps someone could come up with an online file sharing service. If you have a box.net account, yodi could email this file to you and then you can post a link for us to you. Any takers?

You can put it on yousendit or megaupload and post link for downloading.
www.yousendit.com
www.megaupload.com
Alternatively can also post it on one of my website servers

yodiyokun:

@all,

Remember That I work oo and in the last 4 hours I have been away from this page simply because I get to commute home --pick my kids - and tuck them in.

@Pumpings spreadsheet is on page 187 of this thread - no one should ask for it again. do a search.

Now for the long awaited spreadsheet.

Remember, there is no BUY or sell info. It is just a repository of historical information - To gain fom it, it needs to be reviewed and anaylzed.


Thanks Wanaj0 for sharing this - It is highly appreciated.


P.S I am modifying this post because Yawa has gassed.

Seun placed a limit of 200kb per file attachment. The file is 3.5MB even after zipping it , I could only reduce it to 700kb. So if anyone has a way of working round it let me know.

However I no fit send email to everybody, thats no feasible so lets look for a solution.

easimoni:

@ Yodiyoks and All

Perhaps someone could come up with an online file sharing service. If you have a box.net account, yodi could email this file to you and then you can post a link for us to you. Any takers?

@all, I salute.
May I suggest the emmachille style website where he posted so many files for download by people interested.
cheers

Looking beyond the figures in analyzing Public Offers

http://businessdayonline.com/Economic-Watch/Market-Outlook/1280.html

In a season of offers by quoted companies, especially firms in the banking sector of the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE), it is important for investors to seek to look beyond the rhetoric, commentaries and celebrated endorsements by leading lights in the market, economy, politics and society at large.

An investor therefore needs to be able to narrow down the list of stocks that is in front of him/her and research same.

Nowadays, there are a ton of great resources available out there for researching stocks, and fortunately most of them are free. Online research is becoming more and more popular because of its convenience and ease of use. The NSE exchange site allows you to see the stock performance over a period, the Proshare website gives you analysts commentaries on stock, annual accounts, equity research notes and fund managers report while the online editions of newspapers and other websites shares news and analysis on quoted stocks allow you to make intelligent decisions.

Once you’ve gathered the facts, you should then perform the analysis. Different investors use different methods for determining what stocks to buy. Most investors prefer fundamental analysis, although there are also a large number who focus on technical analysis. Whatever one you decide to use, here are a few final considerations to keep in mind:

•Focus on the market capitalisation, not the per-share price. The market capitalisation is the per-share price times the number of shares outstanding. In essence, this is how much you would have to pay to buy the whole company. Every company has a different number of shares outstanding, making per-share price comparisons meaningless. For this reason, a stock which is trading at N40 per share might actually be cheaper than a stock trading at N5 per share. This doesn’t mean that price per share is completely unimportant; some technical analysts believe it can provide clues to where the stock will go next but for fundamental analysis it’s really not important.

* There is no perfect stock screen, because every investor is looking for something different. Some are looking for growth, others for value, still others for dividend income. The screens you apply should be done with your unique goals in mind.

To help you understand how this works, lets us review a current offer – Afribank Nigeria Plc.

Valuation

It would be appropriate to adopt the approach taken by First Securities Discount House (FSDH) to arrive at a fair value for Afribank Plc by using four (4) valuation metrics which are: Dividend Discount Model (DDM), Discounted Future Earnings (DFE), Maintainable Earnings (ME) and Price to Earnings Relative (PER) valuation methods.

In this valuation approach, the three-year dividend projection and the forecast PAT of the bank for the years ending 2008, 2009 and 2010.

The five (5)-year historical PATs of the bank for the years ended 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007 is factored in. Thereafter, exceptional items paid in 2005 and 2007 are adjusted for. A beta value of 0.74 derived from the 5-year historical share price, a risk free rate of 9.25% which is the coupon rate on the 7-year bond issued by the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) in the month of September 2007 and a risk premium of 8% are used to confirm the analysis.

The parameters generates a cost of capital of 15.17 % (the discount rate used) applying the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). A growth rate into perpetuity of 11% was used. The inflation rate as recorded by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for the end of the financial year of the bank is used to bring the historical PAT’s to current value. To ensure that all factors were properly accounted for, appropriate weights for the values used were applied in such a way that higher weight were assigned to the recent values.

Further, the average P/E ratio of 30.69x which is the average for the banking industry as at 18th October, 2007 was used after removing three banks, two with the highest P/E ratio and one bank with the lowest P/E ratio. The PE ratio of 30.69x, though appearing high is justified based on the thinking that the earnings growth potential of the banking industry which we consider in the region of 35% justifies the current high P/E ratio.

This, and in order to arrive at the value of each share we used 5,108,433,332 (excluding the bonus shares of 1 for 5 shares which were in issue as at 31st March, 2007) and 10,130,118,000 Ordinary Shares which would be in issue in 2010 after the Public Offer.

The values per ordinary share of Afribank, using the valuation methods above generated the following results: DDM: N23.80; DFE: N39.17, ME: N30.28 and PER: N33.78.

Investment Analysis

Analysis of the investment ratio between 2003 and 2007 shows that Afribank’s earnings per share increased from N0.45k to N1.02k translating to a CAGR of 22.59%. Dividend per share increased from N0.15k in 2003 to N0.30k in 2007 translating to a CAGR of 18.92%.

The bank did not pay dividends both in 2005 and 2006 as a result of the restructuring costs which it had to undertake in 2005 to position it to efficiency and the goodwill in the account of the bank in 2006.

Earnings yield increased from 6.45% in 2003 to 8.84% in 2007 while the dividend yield also increased marginally to 2.61% from 2.15% during the same period. In a similar development, dividend cover improved marginally to 3.39x from 3.00x. The average P/E ratio for the financial year ended 2006 and 2007 is 13.52x while the average dividend pay-out for the period between 2003 and 2007 is 30.78%.

The share price appreciated by 64.90% from N6.98 to N11.51 translating to a CAGR of 13.32% while the net asset per share increased from N3.34 to N6.13 which is a CAGR of 16.37%. Meanwhile, the shares being offered will qualify for any dividend or bonus that may be declared for the year ending 31st March, 2008. Investment in Afribank shares in the last seven years has proven to be profitable in terms of capital appreciation, dividend and bonuses earned.

Investment Case Study

An investment of N100,000 in Afribank stock on 02 January, 2001 was worth N709,498 as at 26 October, 2007 if the dividends accrued to the investment have not been invested in an interest bearing asset. Our analysis shows that 1 unit of Afribank stock closed at N10.10 on the first trading day in the year 2001.

If the cost of transaction is deducted from the principal of N100,000, the amount would have purchased 9,509 units of Afribank shares in 2001 which as at the date of this report have increased by 140% to 22,821 as a result of bonus issues.

The accumulated total dividend earned less 10% withholding tax stood at N13,692. The value of the investment based on the market price of N30.49 is N709,498 with a total profit of N609,498 thus returning 609% over the period. This translates to a CAGR in return of 38.62%.

Fundamental Analysis

Return on Common Equity: The ROE for Afribank Bank Plc based on the most recent fiscal year’s financial statements is 16.5%, which is above the industry average of 15%. The current year’s ROE represents an improvement of 80.1% compared to 9.02%, the ROE for the prior year.

Cash Flow: A review of the most recent three (3) financial statements indicates a bank with improving operating and free cash flow position since the FYE March 2005. The operating cash flow improved from N4.1 billion in FY 2005 to N5.4 billion in FY 2006, and to N9.4 billion in FY 2006.

Financial Ratios: Reviewing the financial statements for the most FYE for most banks in Nigeria, a comparative analysis of the relevant ratios for Afribank against its peers indicates that the bank performed relatively well. Afribank performed at, or above the industry average after adjusting for bank’s with extreme ratios and banks that have not reported financial figures since 2005.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

A review of the daily price movement of Afribank’s stock from November 4, 2004 through August 17, 2007 reveals a gain of N30.26k or 456% during this period.

However, a significant portion of the gains occurred after the lifting of the 9.6 months technical suspension in July 2007 by the NSE. For example, from July 11, 2007 through August 17, 2007, the stock gained N25.38k, or 220.5% based on the pre-adjusted 1 for 5 bonus price of N36.89.

Analysis revealed that N1m investment in Afribank stock in January 2006 would have generated N2.7 million, or 275%.

VALUATION

It would be appropriate to adopt the approach taken by First Securities Discount House (FSDH) to arrive at a fair value for Afribank Plc by using four (4) valuation metrics which are: Dividend Discount Model (DDM), Discounted Future Earnings (DFE), Maintainable Earnings (ME) and Price to Earnings Relative (PER) valuation methods.

In this valuation approach, the three-year dividend projection and the forecast PAT of the bank for the years ending 2008, 2009 and 2010.

The five (5)-year historical PATs of the bank for the years ended 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007 is factored in. Thereafter, exceptional items paid in 2005 and 2007 are adjusted for. A beta value of 0.74 derived from the 5-year historical share price, a risk free rate of 9.25% which is the coupon rate on the 7-year bond issued by the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) in the month of September 2007 and a risk premium of 8% are used to confirm the analysis.

The parameters generates a cost of capital of 15.17 % (the discount rate used) applying the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). A growth rate into perpetuity of 11% was used. The inflation rate as recorded by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for the end of the financial year of the bank is used to bring the historical PAT’s to current value. To ensure that all factors were properly accounted for, appropriate weights for the values used were applied in such a way that higher weight were assigned to the recent values.

Further, the average P/E ratio of 30.69x which is the average for the banking industry as at 18th October, 2007 was used after removing three banks, two with the highest P/E ratio and one bank with the lowest P/E ratio. The PE ratio of 30.69x, though appearing high is justified based on the thinking that the earnings growth potential of the banking industry which we consider in the region of 35% justifies the current high P/E ratio.

This, and in order to arrive at the value of each share we used 5,108,433,332 (excluding the bonus shares of 1 for 5 shares which were in issue as at 31st March, 2007) and 10,130,118,000 Ordinary Shares which would be in issue in 2010 after the Public Offer.

The values per ordinary share of Afribank, using the valuation methods above generated the following results: DDM: N23.80; DFE: N39.17, ME: N30.28 and PER: N33.78.

Taking a simple average of the three valuation results we arrived at N31.76 which is our fair value of each ordinary share of Afribank. The Offer price at N25.00 per share of the bank is therefore issued at a discount of 27.04% to our fair value of N31.76.

The investor should be able to find enough justification for a BUY decision on the stock at the current Offer price.

Afribank Nigeria Plc has a lot riding on the market forecast it has given to date but the consoling factor here is the believability of its forecast in the past for which it has consistently met.

This is one way to make informed judgement which as a rule, applies across board.

CONCLUSION:

The shares of Afribank Plc, priced at N25 for the secondary offering represents a discount of N5.49k, or 18% from its closing price of N30.49k. Technically, the price movement prior to the technical suspension indicates a very strong demand for the stock by investors and indicates that the uptrend is likely to continue.

My Dear Nairalanders,
I seek to christen page 200 with many thanks to everyone who has contributed to this forum which has practically changed my life. Happy Month of December and may God add many more years ahead!

Personally Saluting

Wanajo
Temmie10
Easimoni
Fatherof2
Windywendy ( welcome back)
Yodiyokun
Aktopgun
Roughcut ( enjoy ur proverbs very much)
Gees
Barge
EMMAACHILE
Pumping777
Rob-roy
Frankiriri ( Find time to visit)
My peace
Naijadr ( Thanks for info about UBA NRN)
Seun for ur initiative and website
All Others who I didnt mention for time ( I gat to run, Time to chop! )

Happy Christmas, happy Year end, May we continue to prosper. Amen!

samstone4:

@Ben0524

You can start with another stockbroker at anytime and transfer your stocks at a later date.

Not sure what forms you need to transfer your stocks to the control of your new broker - assuming your stocks are under CSCS.
If your shares are in certificates nothing need concern your abandoned brokers.
I hear that the brokers are a bit more cooperative nowadays due to better regulation.
Make sure you study your new broker very carefully before moving your account so as not to move from the fryingpan into the fire!

If you did not enter your CSCS number on your application form all it means is that you will have to wait for your share certificate which will then have to be verified before it can be de-materialised to CSCS. A long process.

Hope of some help.

Samstone4

@ Ben0524,

Samstone48 has already answered your questions but I just want to tell you that you can go to the office of the
registrar to Dangote Flour mill and give them your CSCS number or better still write a letter to them as per your CSCS number(attach photocopy of your form) and they will add the number to your form. With this, your shares will be credited to your CSCS account direct. I think ZENITH REGISTRARS LTD is the registrar for Dangote Flour Mill.

Peace.

@ toyibanj,

I no see your post for about 4 days now?. I hope all is well o. Take care and God bless o o.

Peace.