pumping777:

I think most of the analysis on this thread is very short term focussed so an offer like Afribanks' may not make the cut.

Returns are generally being expected within 1 year even though even 1 year is now being considered "medium to long-term" nowadays.

Afribank is seen as expensive short term. Just by looking at the cost of the shares compared to the expected future earnings of the company in the very near future.

If you are investing long term, I don't think the prospects are so bad though but still you probably still have better offers out there.

There are so many offers and opportunities out there, and you only have so much money.

Some offers just have to be "back benchers", because of opportunity cost.

Anyone know whats up with FSDH daily report, I have not received it in the last 2 days - where else can I get a downloadable format of the daily price list.

I need to apply it to Pumpings Spreadsheet.

@Easimoni, any luck with applying the macro on @Wanaj0's spreadsheet.

@Fatherof2 are you watching UBA,

pumping777:

I'm quarter to deciding to participate in a PP for the first time. BGL.  Hard decision because the shares will not be listed for another 2 years and of course it will probably take longer. However, there will be the possibility to sell over the counter from early January next year. The offer closes by middle of this month.

Anyone with red warning signs for PPs? Worst case scenarios?? Anyone that has analyzed this particular PP? I am posting the offer document again.

http://us.f13.yahoofs.com/bc/473db9b4_a39e/bc/My+Documents/Private+placement+24+nov+07+CD.pdf?bfuVbVHBtVoxVeLZ

@Pumping777,

Oga Pumping777, did I read that the minimum offer for subscription was 1,000,000 Units ? That should be N7m -are you leading a consortium of Private Equity Managers or would the money come from your pocket? Do you know what the ROI would be ? I'm interested but constrained by the price.

I have to retract this.

pumping777:

Yes, some of these growth rates are just astronomical making it hard to say with so much certainty that a company stock is "expensive". Like you said, one interim result and everything changes by far!!

Imagine this. Costain Internation sold off their stake in Nigeria and touted this as a very deft move when I was reading through a document on their strategic plan.

Now check out the value of Costain in Nigeria Costain International won't consider that move so smart right now

When will the PEs of companies like Nahco or Japaul come to reasonable levels?? Folks just believe in some mega growh lurking (I don't) and are willing to pay these premiums.

Well said,
Though sometimes the share price premium of a firm forces the management to become more aggressive and innovative. Afterall the objective of a firm is to maximize share price.
In 2005, Wema bank officials came to the London stock exchange seeking institutional investment for odua's stake in the company as well as a 15 year trade credit agreement with an institutional partner.
I still have the power point presentation that Wema Bank did, their forecast eps for 2007 was 0.56, their half year eps is currently higher than that.
Yes not all the buying on the NSE can be justified but like WindyWendy said Japaul's contracts with Shell might compel some to not mind paying the huge premiums, maybe not you and i though.
About Costain, I am sure Diageo (parent company of Guinness) is in a similar position. The fact that we are an emerging market cannot be over-emphasized. Lets use Actis as case study. Actis bought 19% of diamond earlier this year, now i heard they amassing the GDR seriously. Check Actis history, they dont panic sell, rather than put themselves in a difficult position, they'd rather not invest at all. Most of their investments are not even listed, these are investments too big to be sold on the floor so theres no question of them depressing the stock, Also most of these hedge funds and private equity firms are hardly short termers.

yodiyokun:

There are so many offers and opportunities out there, and you only have so much money.

Some offers just have to be "back benchers", because of opportunity cost.

Anyone know whats up with FSDH daily report, I have not received it in the last 2 days - where else can I get a downloadable format of the daily price list.

I need to apply it to Pumpings Spreadsheet.

@Easimoni, any luck with applying the macro on @Wanaj0's spreadsheet.

@Fatherof2 are you watching UBA,

I don't perceive Afribank's management as being credible. What happened with all that  noise the former MD made as to the accounts being manipulated? The Management didn't even deem it fit to give an update on the issue. They manipulated the stock price from N9.1 to N11.51 and then went on suspension after releasing what seemed to be a fantastic result, with the hope of doing a PO. Later, it seemed like they saw that they could do more than N11.51, so they came up with all that blab about how they've decided not to do a PO anymore. Once again they released what seemed to be a fantastic result, manipulated the price to over N30 and then suddenly went on suspension AGAIN, saying that they've applied to do a PO YET AGAIN. They didn't even deem it fit to address the issue raised by the prior MD as to the credibility of the accounts, and didn't bother to tell what the outcome of the so-called investigation into the matter revealed. I'm not too keen on investing a company like that, if you ask me. Something seems fishy.

Ok, let's see if I did this right. If u can download this, go to cell A2 on both pages and select the company you wish to see results or dividend/bonus history for. Kudos to Wanaj0

http://www.megaupload.com/?d=NFZM7QPY

LondonCool:

@Pumping777,

Oga Pumping777, did I read that the minimum offer for subscription was 1,000,000 Units ? That should be N7m -are you leading a consortium of Private Equity Managers or would the money come from your pocket? Do you know what the ROI would be ? I'm interested but constrained by the price.

Oga mi,

Yes, you are right. Na just number now. Seek and you shall find

I am collecting contributions from everyone in my extended family

Frankly I expect a mininum return of over 200% in 2 years after going through the offer documents. They have some solid plans.

@ Easimoni, I don't understand how to use this megaupload thingy. Do I have to sign up or is there a share password to use for logging in? Thanks in advance for responding

windywendy:

I don't perceive Afribank's management as being credible. What happened with all that noise the former MD made as to the accounts being manipulated? The Management didn't even deem it fit to give an update on the issue. They manipulated the stock price from N9.1 to N11.51 and then went on suspension after releasing what seemed to be a fantastic result, with the hope of doing a PO. Later, it seemed like they saw that they could do more than N11.51, so they came up with all that blab about how they've decided not to do a PO anymore. Once again they released what seemed to be a fantastic result, manipulated the price to over N30 and then suddenly went on suspension AGAIN, saying that they've applied to do a PO YET AGAIN. They didn't even deem it fit to address the issue raised by the prior MD as to the credibility of the accounts, and didn't bother to tell what the outcome of the so-called investigation into the matter revealed. I'm not too keen on investing a company like that, if you ask me. Something seems fishy.

2008 projected eps is 80 kobp, why should i pay 25 naira today?
every other banking offer i have seen this year i have prefered, even fidelity
But analysts seem to love afribank offer as all the reports i have read have been singing songs of praise

windywendy:

@ Easimoni, I don't understand how to use this megaupload thingy. Do I have to sign up or is there a share password to use for logging in? Thanks in advance for responding

I just downloaded it -- @Easimoni , you are the bomb, it was as if you were in my head.

@Windywendy - check the top right hand corner - input the code there and click download.

It will tell you to wait for a few seconds and you can click free download.

Takes about 1 minute for the whole process.

LondonCool:

@Pumping777,

Oga Pumping777, did I read that the minimum offer for subscription was 1,000,000 Units ? That should be N7m -are you leading a consortium of Private Equity Managers or would the money come from your pocket? Do you know what the ROI would be ? I'm interested but constrained by the price.

There are pockets and there are pockets and to quote someone you are big when you are big!

For those with pockets and not_pockets and those with stashed cash read this: found it on a sister thread and i think wanajo can provide more info

MTN

Offer Opens:  December 7, 2007

BULL POINTS: Africa’s and Middle East’s largest telecoms giant and unarguably the most profitable
telecommunications Company in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Minimum requirement has been reduced from US$ 5 million to US$100 K via the Scheme
BEAR POINT: Listing date is unknown
NOTE:  The minimum investment of $5 million for individual clients is obtainable if 50 clients gather US$100,000.00 each.

Temmie10:

2008 projected eps is 80 kobp, why should i pay 25 naira today?
every other banking offer i have seen this year i have prefered, even fidelity
But analysts seem to love afribank offer as all the reports i have read have been singing songs of praise

@Temmie,

Why you dey talk like this.

You know our analysts, they will sing the praise of every offer. This may be because in the long run almost every offer will deliver some sort of return.

The wise investor will decide which offer is really worth his while.

As Far as I am concerned why would I chose Afribank over PHB or even FCMB - no way.

@yodiyokun
sometimes you read the reports and u get the feeling that the analyst knew exactly where he was going b4 he even did any analysis. All he has done is to manipulate the data to fit his purpose,
@easimoni
thanks a million!

@Temmie10
analysts love all the offers in the market
just check their report on all the offers since last year,everything is a GOOD BUY for them.
the real analysts are on nairaland.

yodiyokun:

I just downloaded it -- @Easimoni , you are the bomb, it was as if you were in my head.

@Windywendy - check the top right hand corner - input the code there and click download.

It will tell you to wait for a few seconds and you can click free download.

Takes about 1 minute for the whole process.

ok Thanks! I've downloaded it.

Easimoni: Thanks man, this spreadsheet is GOOOODDDD

@texas543
please can u provide any link or any mo info to the mtn offer, ?
I'd love to go through what i can find, just in case i change my mind and decide to rob a bank here

@hbrednic
right here man

please anybody with inform on BOC GAS should share with a brother.


@yodiyokun
if you like i can forward you the fsdh reports for the last 3days.

@ temmie10, pls what is CSMA, 50-day and 20 day CSMA and what is it used for, i have been seeing it on a lot of analysis but dont know what it means . pls hellppppp

hbrednic:

please anybody with inform on BOC GAS should share with a brother.


@yodiyokun
if you like i can forward you the fsdh reports for the last 3days.

From the last time I was following this company: They got acquired by Linde, a much larger global player, in 9/2006 (or thereabout) and embarked on a restructuring of the business. Seemed like a very good investment then (@N4) but my broker couldn't even get me 100k units -- very illiquid stock then, so I lost interest. Not sure if the price now is OK but there's a lot of info on the website (I mean the parent company's website) -- take time to look up the presentations and read up on the plans they have for their divisions. You can also listen in on the investors' presentation. It seems like Linde is planning to use the Nigerian division as a launching pad for West Africa (though they already have a Kenyan plant). They expanded production capacity of their CO2 plant. I like the new management, they seem focused and seem to have a generous dividend payout policy. That's about all I know for now.

@ hbrednic, boc gases has paid dividend constantly over the past fve years, it has a low trailing pe and it should be 10 naira by march

@ windy wendy, pls whats ur take on diamond now? what effect do u think the gdrs will have.
plus what do u think of dangote sugar?

shigidi:

@ temmie10, please what is CSMA, 50-day and 20 day CSMA and what is it used for, i have been seeing it on a lot of analysis but don't know what it means . please hellppppp

For starters, any thing that ends with MA is a moving average.
IN Technical analysis, some chartists use specific numbers like 40 day moving averages, or 50 or 20 to determine the trend a stock is moving or to make an informed decision about when to buy or sell a stock.
Someone might say, i will buy when a stock goes above its 200 day moving average and sell when the 20 day average crosses the 50 day one downwards, a lot of it is subjective though.
its not absolute but you'll be surprised how many times they work, and because a lot of people use them, u can ride on them.
If i can find the right link, i'll provide it.

shigidi:

@ windy wendy, please whats your take on diamond now? what effect do u think the gdrs will have.
plus what do u think of dangote sugar?

In all honesty, I'm still pondering that question in my head (wrt Diamond and the GDRs). Otherwise I really think Diamond is undervalued and is a GOOD medium to long term play. I haven't bought yet and won't until I figure out how the GDR will affect the valuation. However with the info Temmie10 provided about Actis amassing the GDRs, I'm beginning to think this deal might be SWEET afterall. Let's see how that plays out.

WRT Dangote Sugar, Seriously undervalued company. I have it in my portfolio as one of my longterm plays, and am just patiently waiting for the market to come to its senses on this one   . I'm watching the price closely and picking up units here and there as the price dips to unreasonable levels. Plus I hear that Dangote is reconsidering this nonsense quarterly dividend thing -- that should do something good for the stock price, knowing how the market can be . . .

@shigidi
Try this: http://www.investopedia.com/university/movingaverage/

Temmie10:

For starters, any thing that ends with MA is a moving average.
IN Technical analysis, some chartists use specific numbers like 40 day moving averages, or 50 or 20 to determine the trend a stock is moving or to make an informed decision about when to buy or sell a stock.
Someone might say, i will buy when a stock goes above its 200 day moving average and sell when the 20 day average crosses the 50 day one downwards, a lot of it is subjective though.
its not absolute but you'll be surprised how many times they work, and because a lot of people use them, u can ride on them.
If i can find the right link, i'll provide it.

That's exactly what I'm talking about! You can ride on it to generate cash for "much saner" investments _{at least until the strategy stops working} .

[s]But Temmie10, why are leaking this secret for free?[/s]

windywendy:

That's exactly what I'm talking about! You can ride on it to generate cash for "much saner" investments.

[s]But Temmie10, why are leaking this secret for free?[/s]

Apart from the fact that Shigidi is a major pal,
sharing it wont affect my gains one bit,

Must say i like your investment philosophy tho, very similar to mine
, you understand that one size doesnt fit all,
Sometimes some investments are not sane, but because u understand the risk and mechanics, u buy the stock, make a huge chunk most times and then find an undervalued and sound cashcow to dump it on,

@ Windywendy, Temmie10 and All


I noticed that Japauloil increment is minimum today i.e. 0.25%, is it time to bail out?
I bought it during the post PO and it has increased about 27% since last week.


So out or hold

temmie10 ,thanks jare. u be real paddy. i will apply it with the stocks i want to add( unic and dangote sugar) to my portfolio and see how it works.
thanks a bunch

crazyT:

@ Windywendy, Temmie10 and All


I noticed that Japauloil increment is minimum today i.e. 0.25%, is it time to bail out?
I bought it during the post PO and it has increased about 27% since last week.


So out or hold

if i were you, i would actually bail out, 27% in one week is not bad at all.
Someone else might hold because they think it would go higher but i would js get out, esp since the projected earnings do not really support the current price

Hello Fatherof2,

Wetin dey happen now, we nor see your red light o o. Abi the laptop never start work upon all the technical instructions wey then give yesterday.  Abi witchey don enter the laptop, maybe dey won block the source of wealth, dem dey joke o o.

As per UBA, I think its gradually heading towards the projected entry level. I will like to know your take on this.

Peace.

easimoni:

Ok, let's see if I did this right. If u can download this, go to cell A2 on both pages and select the company you wish to see results or dividend/bonus history for. Kudos to Wanaj0

http://www.megaupload.com/?d=NFZM7QPY

Thanks a lot (again ). This is so cool.

Temmie10:

if i were you, i would actually bail out, 27% in one week is not bad at all.
Someone else might hold because they think it would go higher but i would js get out, esp since the projected earnings do not really support the current price

Thanks Top!!! IOU one, my broker will surely hear from me first thing tomorrow.