@windywendy &shigidi
many thanks for the take on BOC GAS.

Temmie10:

@shigidi
Try this: http://www.investopedia.com/university/movingaverage/

Temmie,

I have read this article and looked at the calculation of the SMA and EMA but how exactly do we know which stock to apply it to?

I mean doing this for all the stock listed will take more than a full time job.

Moreover, half of what was said in that article just went over my head.

Can someone give us an example from the NSE. I am very much interested in this technical analysis because I believe combining it wil Fundamentals may be a win win situation.

yodiyokun:

Temmie,

I have read this article and looked at the calculation of the SMA and EMA but how exactly do we know which stock to apply it to?

I mean doing this for all the stock listed will take more than a full time job.

Moreover, half of what was said in that article just went over my head.

Can someone give us an example from the NSE. I am very much interested in this technical analysis because I believe combining it wil Fundamentals may be a win win situation.

For a start, I think you can apply it to stocks that you already own or are planning to buy.

Did you download the spreadsheet?  You can fill in the table with stock data for instance from Cashcraft's "Stock Price movement" page.  I pasted the date and closing price columns simultaneously into a new excel sheet and sorted in ascending order since Cashcraft has it in descending order.

I have attached what I got for CILeasing. The chart is quite small since it's on the same sheet so I'd prefer to have it on a separate worksheet.

I think one just has to update the daily prices and extend the rate of the chart going forward.

Hey Folks, I created some spreadsheets (used an example online), same as pumping just posted, with SMA and EMA for couple of stocks

Also created equations that tell me if its a Buy or Sell based on EMA

This one is the one for Diamond Bank

I used cashcraft for price info, and then make sure to reverse the columns (sort in ascending order)

appears accurate but who knows, feel free to criticize.

Naijadr:

Hey Folks, I created some spreadsheets (used an example online), same as pumping just posted, with SMA and EMA for couple of stocks

Also created equations that tell me if its a Buy or Sell based on EMA

This one is the one for Diamond Bank (equation has it as Buy same as Access Bank)

I used cashcraft for price info, and then make sure to reverse the columns (sort in ascending order)

appears accurate but who knows, feel free to criticize.

Please which equations do you use to determine if it is a buy or sell?

Is there any visual observation that can suggest either?

pumping777:

Please which equations do you use to determine if it is a buy or sell?

Is there any visual observation that can suggest either?

Got it from this site
http://www.willowsolutions.com/tips/tips_2002_11_1.shtml
Calculating Buy and Sell Signals

We used Excel’s IF and AND functions to calculate Buy and Sell signals based on whether the instrument’s closing price crossed above or below its exponential moving average. Although it may appear complicated, the formula to calculate a buy signal is pretty straightforward. If yesterday’s closing price is less than its EMA and the current closing price is greater than its EMA then it would indicate the EMA crossed to the upside and the price action would generate a buy signal. If these conditions were met, then the word Buy appeared in the cell. If they were not met, then the cell remained blank. The buy signal formula is:

=IF(AND($F8<$I8,$F7>$I7),"Buy",""

For those interested in how moving averages can be used to determine buy or sell signals, read the investopedia article below. Focus on MACD. Then let's see if anyone can program these indicators into a spreadsheet based tool.

http://www.investopedia.com/university/indicator_oscillator/default.asp

easimoni:

For those interested in how moving averages can be used to determine buy or sell signals, read the investopedia article below. Focus on MACD. Then let's see if anyone can program these indicators into a spreadsheet based tool.

http://www.investopedia.com/university/indicator_oscillator/default.asp

Easimoni, u still dey post around this time of the day,u nor dey sleep?. Lest I forget, the information is good.

Thanks.

Peace.

easimoni:

For those interested in how moving averages can be used to determine buy or sell signals, read the investopedia article below. Focus on MACD. Then let's see if anyone can program these indicators into a spreadsheet based tool.

http://www.investopedia.com/university/indicator_oscillator/default.asp

Hey Oga Easimoni, I tried to do this for my Nigerian-German Chart and plotted the Buy and Sell points, and so far so good for me, got it pretty good. I'll try it with my other ones. I've attached some of my spreadsheets below

From the last 100days
BUY: approx N13 (early aug)
SELL: approx N17 (around aug 20)
BUY: approx N15 (around 1st week sep)
no sell signal yet


For Diamond Bank, I had entry price at around N17(around 1st week aug), with no sell signal

For CI Leasing
BUY: approx N4.8 around aug 12
SELL: approx N5.5 around aug 24
BUY: approx N5 around oct 19

kai did CUTIX own, I bought/sold at wrong times
BUY:1st few days aug around N10
SELL: N14 around aug 20
BUY: N12 around aug 27
SELL: N22 around sep 21
BUY: N8 around nov 15

K2:

@Roughcut or any person that has bought IPOs or POs for your children, how do you do it? I meant in filling the form? Do you fill their name and sign your signature as "for***" or you sign your regular signature? You may treat this as for someone that's NRN.

@Naijadr, I have the UBA stuff as well but only because of the loan to buy FBN offer. Do you go through Tope each time or you have a direct link with the broker? I don't have a direct link. Do you also know if they had refunded your FBN money? My rep can't give me a straight answer.

All you need to do to open an bank account for dividend payment is send the passport pictures of your child to someone reliable(ask them to sign the passports pictures) in nigeria and get the adult to stand as the legal guardian for that child(if you are not there physically or you can take a trip a to naija to sort it out). Then the person will open an account(i did this with GTB in my son's name) and get the legal guardian to sign the paperwork as the child is a minor and therefore not capable of entering into any legal agreement that's why you need an adult to be the legal guardian in nigeria. Make sure the account is opened in the child's name and you can start paying the dividends into the account

As for filling in the forms you can complete the paperwork  as usual and sign as the legal guardian/parent of the child.

@K2, I also go thru Tope, I email him and he passes it on, havent had a prob with that, I didnt take the UBA loan though did 1st bank PO but with my own money. I dont think FBN has refunded the money at least folks on here havent reported receiving theirs, but its in the works.

Temmie10:

@roughcut
i am not sure the correction if it does happen will be anymore dramatic than we have already seen
Yes the NSE is very highly leveraged but a stock exchange lives on leverage and borrowed funds everywhere in the world, there is a direct relationship between the credit market and the stock exchange.
2ndly, return on capital employed by most companies listed on NSE is very high, average for banks is between 20-25%. The Nigerian FGN bond officially gives the highest yield in the world i.e. Nigerian government pays d highest interest on bonds.
Thats why one minute u are buying wema at 6 which looks like a pe of 40 but the next minute it turns out you have just bought it at a forward PE of less than 6 with the impressive results,
Its the growth that is making people pay the high PEs.

For starters i am not implying that the 'correction' will herald a crash or  be dramatic. Correction will happen when the market realises that some stocks are over-valued and the subsequent sell-off will cause the share price to plummet (supply and demand again) until they can now find a new level of support.

Like the technical analysts would say every time a stock breaks through the support level the new level becomes the resistance and the share price can start to inch up again to breach the resistance point this is a healthy development to maintain the market dynamics so that the system does not go under. I have not in any way suggested that a correction will be catastrophic or dramatic

There's a direct correlation between credit markets(inter-bank lending) and a stock or capital market but in Nigeria the correlation is almost zilch and that is why a lot of investors both individual and institutional in the western economies are selling and investing the cash in the NSE. At least you know about the wild gyrations on the western stock exchanges because of the 'credit crunch' and until the subprime mortgage debacle is sorted out  we will continue to witness the inflow of off-shore funds into the NSE which is one of the reasons prices loôk inflated and over-bloated just now

Just pray that they don't pull out their funds because that will be something else for you and me to worry about!

wanaj0:

Thanks for breaking down the big grammar for me.

haba! as the resident stock field marshall which big grammar are you talking about? i think you are being modest.

Make i nak one proverb finish my tory[b]There is no a baby elephant will be manifesting at the same time as the father elephant is on the center-stage[/b] hope you catch my drift

I just dey try to learn from the 'elder'

pumping777:

Please which equations do you use to determine if it is a buy or sell?

Is there any visual observation that can suggest either?

The visual observation comes from recognizing the chart patterns. For any chart type you can construct (should be pretty easy to abi?) the patterns will alwasy fall into the following patterns most commonly as below

[list]
[li]Head and shoulders[/li]
[li]Double Tops and Bottoms[/li]
[li]Triple Tops and Bottoms[/li]

[/list]

Also there are various chart types which are mainly

[list]

[li]Line chart[/li]
[li]Bar charts[/li]
[li]Candlestick charts[/li]

[/list]

How this affects your investment decisions or the practical application i will try and demystify in the upcoming tutorial

@windywendy

Pls can you do an analysis on Fidelity? No one really says much about it here.
do u have any idea when they will return to the market?
also why has the price been marked down? someone said it is because of bonuses. where does one get information as to if a company will be giving bonuses or not? i know it gets rumoured around initialy.
PLS O! MAKE WIND NO CARRY MY MONEY GO

@ all
I have my address with the cscs as my home address. i have never received any dividend slips . Does using my home address have any disadvantage over pobox? mko abiola gardens Ikeja

@ All,

Where is our Fatherof2 and I hope he is not missing or AWOL. Hurry up and fix your system Fatherof2, we need you here.

UBA announced payment and closure date for next year. They intend to pay 20% more than the last dividend.

Waiting for FCMB to be lifted off TS soon.

@all
skye bank placed on TS this morning, coming to the market

@ YodiYokun,

Can someone give us an example from the NSE. I am very much interested in this technical analysis because I believe combining it wil Fundamentals may be a win win situation.

I sense that you want to borrow some courses from the technicalist/suicide bombers faculty in addition to your fundamentalist course.

You are highly welcome.

Rule 1   Make money
Rule 2   Never stop making money.

@yodiyokun
Honestly, i only use technical analysis mainly for stocks that i consider volatile, thats where the real money is, else your broker and the mechanics of NSE will frustrate your analysis when they either cannot get the stock at your buy signal

Diamond for instance is not volatile one bit so far, its been moving sideways, there is no trend in the last couple of months so its no point making charts/ studying patterns on it. Technical analysis detects trends, upwards or downwards,
what i do is, take a look at a 3 month chart of a stock and you can tell if its trending/volatile stock, u can do this on cashcraft as roughcut suggested, if its moving sideways, then concentrate on fundamentals and consider what can make it breakout either upwards or downwards.

But if its volatile, u can begin to work with it.
The volatile ones are where the money is, though fundamentals may say you nay sometimes,
Look at the 3 month chart for AP, NGC, Evans MED, Unity Bank, First Aluminium, and compare it with the 3 month chart for diamond, flour mills, there you will see what i mean by volatile/cyclical stocks,
Of course with TA, the time of getting out is even more important than when to get in.

cheers

@roughcut
i hear you
its no point arguing on when or whether correction will happen,
During the so called bear market of this year, i still made a lot of money
Lets enjoy our gains on the NSE abeg, hw's zurich?

@yodiyokun
One small caveat
There's a million technical patterns with funny names. There's only one way to know which works.
Test any technical style you want to use first on wanaj0's spreadsheet over different periods of time to at least reduce your margin of error,
And yes its better when you can find a volatile stock whose fundamentals are actually sound, Then you can actually eat your cake and have it!

Temmie10:

@roughcut
i hear you
its no point arguing on when or whether correction will happen,
During the so called bear market of this year, i still made a lot of money
Lets enjoy our gains on the NSE abeg, hw's zurich?

When there is a 'correction or bearish situation' on the stockmarket that is the time we bargain hunters should be making a killing that is the point of TA when a lot of peeps who are responsible for pushing up the prices have bailed out
Zurich is kool as usual

@Windywendy, Wanaj0, Pumping777, easimoni, Roughcut and all members of the house.

Please have a look at the attached chart, Have I got the averages right? if yes what does the mixture of signals suggest?

In arriving at BUY/SELL decision, I have used the prevailing condition that "When the shorter moving average (the one calculated from the lowest number of intervals) moves above the longer moving average a buy signal is generated and when the short moving average moves below the longer moving average a sell signal is generated." from www.trademade.com

I think quite a lot of peeps now know how to use the MACD so let's move on to the the second  indicator that is commonly used in TA.

Relative Strength Index

Has the same application/uses as MACD the only difference is in the way they are computed. They measure the same metric which is the divergence between RSI and the actual  stock price gain/loss. this divergence is quite a powerful for making BUY/SELL decisions. See note below on Divergence

The RSI compares the magnitude of a stock's recent gains to the magnitude of its recent losses and turns that information into a number that ranges from 0 to 100. It takes a single parameter, the number of time periods to use in the calculation. Recommended time period is 14

RSI= 100  -  (100/1+RS)
                 


Components of RSI  


Components of RSI


Average Gain   =     (Total Gains/n)

Average Loss   =      (Total Losses/n)
                                     


First RS             =  (Average Gain/Average Loss)



Smoothed RS       =[(Previous Average Gain) x 13 + Current  Gain]/14/
                                        [(Previous  Average Loss) x13 + Current Loss]/14


n        =                          number of RSI periods

Please note the Gain/Loss is the difference between the opening price and the closing price for the day in particular and the sum of

Gain/Losses divided by the number of days in the period which is 14(you can vary the period number of periods in question though for longer trend analysis) is the average Gain/Loss

All subsequent computations of RS for the following days will use the Smoothed RS

Calculation for the first RS i.e for the first day of computation is Average Gain/Average Loss


Application


[list]
[li]Overbought/Oversold[/li]

[/list]

Wilder recommended using 70 and 30 and overbought and oversold levels respectively. Generally, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish for the underlying stock. Conversely, if the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. Some traders identify the long-term trend and then use extreme readings for entry points. If the long-term trend is bullish, then oversold readings could mark potential entry points

[list]
[li]
Divergences[/li]
[/list]

Buy and sell signals can also be generated by looking for positive and negative divergences between the RSI and the underlying stock. For example, consider a falling stock whose RSI rises from a low point of (for example) 15 back up to say, 55. Because of how the RSI is constructed, the underlying stock will often reverse its direction soon after such a divergence. As in that example, divergences that occur after an overbought or oversold reading usually provide more reliable signals

[list]
[li]Centerline Crossover[/li]

[/list]

The centerline for RSI is 50. Readings above and below can give the indicator a bullish or bearish tilt. On the whole, a reading above 50 indicates that average gains are higher than average losses and a reading below 50 indicates that losses are winning the battle. Some traders look for a move above 50 to confirm bullish signals or a move below 50 to confirm bearish signals

Divergence:

A situation that occurs when two lines on a chart move in opposite directions vertically. People often look for divergences by comparing a stock's direction to the direction of its RSI, its MACD or its Stochastic Oscillator. There are two kinds of divergences: positive and negative. A positive divergence occurs when the indicator moves higher while the stock is declining. A negative divergence occurs when the indicator moves lower while the stock is rising

The next and the third in the series for the TA indicators you can use  is the Stochastic oscillator

Watch the space!

My dear People,
 
   I miss una oh, men na serious battle with my pc virus for the second time this year on a new laptop.I press F8 select "last known configuration" the thing no gree start again.Kai see trouble.Luckily i had saved my docs(particularly my SPREADSHEET MONEY) in another flashdrive.I had to format the system and reload the pc with xp2 and other softwares.To even find nairaland and last page was wahala.But thankGod i'm back. Men be carefull about those so called "TROJAN HORSES".Computer demons.
@ Temmie10
   Thanks for your short term analysis on page 210.For someone staying outside this country you have a strong antenna in knowing exactly where the money resides in NSE.
@ ololufemi
   You hit the nail on the head with your last post on page 211.If you've noticed, i've never engaged in breaking my back teeth (number crunching)
  except absolutely necessary.I hardly get caught up by bears,if i'm caught, i should be under the soil they stand(low price) and not directly under their
  claws.
@ yodiyokun
  I'm watching UBA closely.One cannot predict the lowest of the low for the price,but things happen Thursday/Friday for me.
  I'll be taking my position soon,lets watch.A lot of people will be travelling on the 21st and will need some money (UBA may be part of it).Also
  i'll prefer the week before the actual payment date.
  1. Many people travel more for Newyear than Christmas and will need money then(28th/29th).
  2. Also after riding the wave of those who want to collect dividend,you can sell just before closure date,hopefully price will fall and hopefully by
      January ending/sometime in february UBA should declare its 1st quarter result for year 08 ( yet another wave to ride).
@Windywendy
  I don't personally make 25% every single week but many speculators do.Sometimes its three/four weeks,but i try to ensure i'm making money every
 month. Do you know if you start with N25m in January and set a conservative target of 25% every quarter(4 quarters total), you'll end up with N61m by year end
with compounding.Each year the cycle repeats itself you just need to know how to ride it from experience.
@ All
  I want you to take a note of all that has happened in the NSE in the last 4-5months and watch the NSE same time nextyear and you'll see how trends    
  repeat themselves in the NSE( Old habits die hard).

wanaj0:

People make friends here but Mypeace will end up making many enemies with moi being number one!!!!! She must just deliver even if it is onle 10 units of Trans Express.

When you see a rights (not hybrid) know that something is cooking.

On Eterna Oil, nothing special. The petroleum marketing sector is passing through difficult times. This will continue until there is an increase in price of petroleum products. Current margin is so small for the major operators.

So what's going on with the petroleum marketing sector now? its been upward with most stock for the past few days.

@ Fatherof2
WB

@ Fatherof2,

Welcome back big bro and hope the laptop don dey perform so all the spreadsheet money no go disappear.

Boys don miss you oh

Thinking Yodiyokun wants to join our school of thought(technical analysis) where good short term gains can be made because she's shown a lot of interest in it lately.

Any thing for the boys,

FatherOF2:

My dear People,
 
   I miss una oh, men na serious battle with my pc virus for the second time this year on a new laptop.I press F8 select "last known configuration" the thing no gree start again.Kai see trouble.Luckily i had saved my docs(particularly my SPREADSHEET MONEY) in another flashdrive.I had to format the system and reload the pc with xp2 and other softwares.To even find nairaland and last page was wahala.But thankGod i'm back. Men be carefull about those so called "TROJAN HORSES".Computer demons.
@ Temmie10
   Thanks for your short term analysis on page 210.For someone staying outside this country you have a strong antenna in knowing exactly where the money resides in NSE.
@ ololufemi
   You hit the nail on the head with your last post on page 211.If you've noticed, i've never engaged in breaking my back teeth (number crunching)
  except absolutely necessary.I hardly get caught up by bears,if i'm caught, i should be under the soil they stand(low price) and not directly under their
  claws.
@ yodiyokun
  I'm watching UBA closely.One cannot predict the lowest of the low for the price,but things happen Thursday/Friday for me.
  I'll be taking my position soon,lets watch.A lot of people will be travelling on the 21st and will need some money (UBA may be part of it).Also
  i'll prefer the week before the actual payment date.
  1. Many people travel more for Newyear than Christmas and will need money then(28th/29th).
  2. Also after riding the wave of those who want to collect dividend,you can sell just before closure date,hopefully price will fall and hopefully by
      January ending/sometime in february UBA should declare its 1st quarter result for year 08 ( yet another wave to ride).
@Windywendy
  I don't personally make 25% every single week but many speculators do.Sometimes its three/four weeks,but i try to ensure i'm making money every
 month. Do you know if you start with N25m in January and set a conservative target of 25% every quarter(4 quarters total), you'll end up with N61m by year end 
  with compounding.Each year the cycle repeats itself you just need to know how to ride it from experience.
@ All
  I want you to take a note of all that has happened in the NSE in the last 4-5months and watch the NSE same time nextyear and you'll see how trends    
  repeat themselves in the NSE( Old habits die hard).
   

Guess it means that generally, one should wait till that last week in the year to make a choice, most should be on their lowest prices for the month right?

@ All,

Zenith public offer opens tomorrow,

Its time to bring out your piggy banks and start to invest in this great offer. A wonderful christmas present brought to us by Mr Jim, the dream, Ovia.

Remember, its always in your best interest.

@ Fatherof2,

I intend to buy the Zenith Public offer(primary market) and also purchase it on the floor of the NSE (secondary market), so that while cashing in on the secondary market after TS is lifted, my primary market share is intact and gaining until it is listed on the floor. that way, I feel I can eat my cake and have it.

What's your advise on that.

thanks a lot

model1780:

Guess it means that generally, one should wait till that last week in the year to make a choice, most should be on their lowest prices for the month right?

Generally yes, but still keep an eye on the good ones.A good price can pop up before then and stay at its resistance level.
I'm keeping a close eye on Vitafoam now.Its falling small small.That stock is a good example of a stock that speculators have RAPED (sorry to use that word) in the last 4 months.Go to www.cscsnigerialtd.com and click on price history and see how vitafoam has behaved.I rode the cycle of that stock twice.
I'm waiting for a good fall because history shows announcements around January/Feb.If that thing falls below N8 again na my whole body i go take enter.

@FatherOF2,

I nid just one help from u,the help is can i know ur stock broker?ur strategy is precisely d system i'm equally usin long long time ago and is working 4 me, even though some peeps on dis forum told me then wen i first revealed it dat it was nt possible.now u too are saying d sametin,may be dey wil believe now dat it is possible.

Dat is dat jare,let's ride on

my e-mail is forexkiller2008@yahoo.com ,kindly send to me ur Stock Broker contact address

thanks