V.C.2007:

For crying out loud when are we expecting a RALLY?
Somebody please tell me before I lose my mind

As you would have learnt on this forum investing in the capital market requires patience and judgement and if you cant ride the crest and the turbulence that is inherent in investing in stocks then you probably need to start thinking of investing in something else apart from the stock market

TO ALL THE HOUSE

Which of the PO is going to be the sweetest , is it FIDFELITY, AFRI BANK or STERLING BANK

RoughCut i know what you are talking about,
I just wanted to know when we think we might likely have a rally, thats all

mee25:

TO ALL THE HOUSE

Which of the PO is going to be the sweetest , is it FIDFELITY, AFRI BANK or STERLING BANK

wait till we see the prospectus then well know how far, personally, i think it will be between fidelity or afri.
where is vry 1 on this thread.

Still waiting to hear about the IBTC PO

@ whitelexi, r u for real that ibtc is doing a PO. pls holla cos thats one id love to invest in

shigidi:

@ whitelexi, r u for real that ibtc is doing a PO. please holla because thats one id love to invest in

Well, except my trusted broker has suddenly gone bunkers, i think i heard correctly. IBTC will be coming out soon with a PO.

Hi Ayala,please is NAHCO still in the market i saw an ad placed in this day news paper last week i've forgotten when it will close but I don't know how to get their shares offer.Pls reply

ifsez:

Hi Ayala,please is NAHCO still in the market i saw an ad placed in this day news paper last week i've forgotten when it will close but I don't know how to get their shares offer.Please reply

You can download the app form/prospectus from either http://www.cashcraft.com/ or http://www.zenithsecuritiesng.com/downloads.php
The closing date is on the 28th September

All,

What's your take on these 4 banks.

1. Diamond
2. FCMB
3. Skye
4. Wema

@ all Gurus,

Could you all pls help revive this thread. This & "Stock Market Tips" are wot makes this business forum tick the most! So let's get the thread tickin again!

Hello Fellow Naijas,

I have been a big player in the stock market both online and offline. I have made alot of money too with stocks.

Personally I think one doesn't have to sit on stocks for years like our fore-fathers did in other to make money with them. One can buy a good share on the floor of the Stock exchange today and have it sold the next 2 months when it appreciates

There is one catch though, you have got to know b/w good and bad stocks.

Also one shouldn't undermine the value of penny stocks. Good luck to us all

Slim.

Panadol:

All,

What's your take on these 4 banks.

1. Diamond
2. FCMB
3. Skye
4. Wema

I like all four, at least in the next 6-9 months and bearing any unforseen situations.

slim49z:

Hello Fellow Naijas,

I have been a big player in the stock market both online and offline. I have made alot of money too with stocks.

Personally I think one doesn't have to sit on stocks for years like our fore-fathers did in other to make money with them. One can buy a good share on the floor of the Stock exchange today and have it sold the next 2 months when it appreciates

There is one catch though, you have got to know b/w good and bad stocks.

Also one shouldn't undermine the value of penny stocks. Good luck to us all

Slim.

Temmie10:

I like all four, at least in the next 6-9 months and bearing any unforseen situations.

FCMB
WEMA
are in my to-do list and i have added Costain (WA) and japaul oil

@All
What is going on with Guinness? It is falling even in the face of a reasonable dividend declared last week. Any answers anybody?

Atam-Man:

@All
What is going on with Guinness? It is falling even in the face of a reasonable dividend declared last week. Any answers anybody?

Probably the love of bonus issues! It may also be due to the general bearish atmosphere at the moment . Guinness is ridiculoulsy solid but unspectacular. IF you own any, don't sell.

oga easimoni
longest time,how have u been?Whats ur take on japaul if uve seen the prospectus and whats ur recent views on the insurance sector.anything u will like to share

Panadol:

All,

What's your take on these 4 banks.

1. Diamond
2. FCMB
3. Skye
4. Wema

all are solid.
skye and diamond asre your safest bets but wema is your trump card. you will make more out of wema than any other one on that list.

For those who have been agitating for the Japaul Oil stats here are some numbers for you to digest

Trailing P/E for YEnd Dec 2006=40
Trailing EPS for YEnd Dec 2006=14.9k

Based on N173.6M PAT for YEnd Dec 2006 and

Outstanding shares of 1.17B as @ Dec 2006

Forward P/E for YEnd Dec 2007=10.36
Forward EPS for YEnd Dec 2007=38.11k

Based on N444M PAT and
Outstanding shares of 2.4B as @ Dec 2007

Forward P/E for YEnd Dec 2008 =13.5
Forward EPS for YEnd Dec 2008=29.25k

Based on PAT of N720M and

Outstanding shares 2.4B

PAT is projected to grow about 60% which i think they are more than capable of doing. PAT has been growing at more more 60% since 2003. So projecting forward for Year 2008 i have calculated that the stock should be trading at a solid N10-12 and if you are buying into the PO at a price <N4 you are definitely making very good returns.

BUY BUY BUY

@ roughcut,
how did u get 10-12 naira by december 2008 its eps will be 0.3, that means it should be 9 naira at a pe of 30
thats been a bit on the optimistic side dont u think its a good growth stock and more of a long term buy. but 10 naira i think is high.

Roughtcut,
regarding the YE 2007 numbers (PAT = N444 and shares = 2.4B), the EPS is 19k and forward PE at offer price is ~20. The YE 2007 numbers you quote don't include the offer shares (prob a fair assumption since the certs won't be out). Anyway, my point is the numbers won't start to look good until well into 2008. Not an offer for short-timers.

shigidi:

@ roughcut,
how did u get 10-12 naira by december 2008 its eps will be 0.3, that means it should be 9 naira at a pe of 30
thats been a bit on the optimistic side don't u think its a good growth stock and more of a long term buy. but 10 naira i think is high.

Very very easy

Firstly the PE Ratio by YEnd 2008 will be 13.5 and not 30 as you stated

They have also projected that PAT for YEnd 2008 would have grown by 60% from N444M to N720M

If we agree that  PE = P/EPS and EPS= PAT/Outstanding #Shares

So i'm sure its a reasonable proposition to make that if PAT increases by  60% the EPS will also increase by 60% right?

From our model  P=EPS x PE Ratio

Therefore the share price will increase in the same proportion as EPS from the relationship above

QED
Any questions holla

easimoni:

Roughtcut,
regarding the YE 2007 numbers (PAT = N444 and shares = 2.4B), the EPS is 19k and forward PE at offer price is ~20. The YE 2007 numbers you quote don't include the offer shares (prob a fair assumption since the certs won't be out). Anyway, my point is the numbers won't start to look good until well into 2008. Not an offer for short-timers.

easimoni you have calculated your forward PE for YEnd 2007 using 1.17B shares listed as at DEC 2006 and that gîves you a PE of 19 if you take into consideration the number of shares that will listed after this offer 2.4B that gives you a forward PE Ratio of 10.36 for YEnd 2007

The tricky thing about japaul is that eps increases (07), decreases (08) and then increases again (09).
10 naira plus after 2009 fye is very possible according to the forecasts, its possible in 2008 too but that would be largely optimistic

temmie10, they failed to factor in the shares in the p.o for 2007, they are already telling you these shares aint gonna be listed till 2008. 10 naira by year end 2009 is more like it

Shigidi,

pls whats the implication of listing the shares in 2009? am about buying the p.o. pls explain the implication to me.
thx.

my peace, it doesnt mean anything serious, it just means ur not gonna get ur certificate till early next year and u knew that already

The projections i made for YEnd  factored in the shares to be listed as result of the PO so you are very free to draw your own conclusions. Going forward as Shigidi said you will not get your cert until next year but if the new SEC regulations kick in before year end you might just be lucky. The new regulation says share certificates must be sent out 6 weeks after share allotment so depends on how long it takes for the allotment and hopefully by year end  2008 all holdings will be dematerialized(no more paper certificates) so you are better off getting a stock-broker who knows what they are doing so your holdings can be registered with CSCS if you don't have one

Thank you very much.

MyPeace:

Shigidi,

please whats the implication of listing the shares in 2009? am about buying the p.o. please explain the implication to me.
thx.

are you talking about JaPaul offer?

@ temmie & Shigidi,

Japaul has factored in this new shares being offered in their calculations of the forward EPS going from 2008 to 2009.

it is not unusual for the EPS to reduce (2008) after a new offer because u are dividing ur old earnings projections by a larger number of shares whilst the actual returns expected from the new capital has not started showing significantly

@MyPeace
the new offer will be listed as soon as the allotment is done and final approval is received from the appropriate body, that can happen from late 2007, early 2008 to worst case; late 2008 (highly unlikely)

@ Walcom

Do you see it as a good buy as Roughcut sees it?